Week 15 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy

Sport: NFL Football

Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers - Saturday December 15, 2007 8:15 pm

Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: San Francisco 49ers +9 (-113) (Normal)

 

 

3 Plays on the card today.

Research that went into this play:

 

 

Here is a barn-burner of a game today. The Bengals are a better team so they will kill the 49ers and it's an open and shut case right? Not necessarily. The Bengals are 5-8, have no hopes for the playoffs and this team's weakness is their defense and the fact they are 1-5 on the road. In fact, they have the same road record as the 49ers themselves. These 2 teams have not met since 2003, so revenge is no factor here. Cincy comes off a 19-10 win over the Rams, but was that really an impressive win considering it was against Brock Berlin? The Bengals have played in 3 straight unders and its because they have put up 10, 27, 21 and 20 in points on the road. The 49ers get another chance to prove themselves in front of the public eye today as they are 3-10 and come off a terrible game against the Vikings at home. But, the advantage is that they do face a defense that is 26th best in the league and 28th in points allowed. The 49ers are essentially dead last in many offensive categories but are 15th in the league in pass defense which should play a factor today. Despite Hill starting at quarterback today, the Bengals defense will make any quarterback look like they belong in the NFL. I believe the 49ers still have a lot to prove in this game in particular for Nolan who wants to remain as head coach and for Shaun Hill who does this give team a bit of a "spark" as Nolan describes it. I think you'll be surprised at how competitive the 49ers will be today.

 

Additional write-up:

Both of these teams are out of the playoffs, Shaun Hill did do a good job of leading this team when he was in the ballgame the last time out, I personally don't think a 1-5 team should be laying more than a touchdown on the road and the fact that Mike Nolan is fighting for his job is important here as well. Hill reminds me of a Jeff Garcia quarterback who when given the chance can shine as per him, this is his Super Bowl and I will take the 49ers as I think they give the Bengals all they can handle. Essentially one of the worst defenses in the league should not be laying this many points as this is not the Bengals of last year, but rather the Bengals of 2007 who have just 1 road win and 5 road losses. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS when a favorite by this margin and 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of late.

[Gdawg]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy

Sport: NFL Football

Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers - Saturday December 15, 2007 8:15 pm

Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: San Francisco 49ers +9 (-113) (Normal)

3 Plays on the card today.

Research that went into this play:

Here is a barn-burner of a game today. The Bengals are a better team so they will kill the 49ers and it's an open and shut case right? Not necessarily. The Bengals are 5-8, have no hopes for the playoffs and this team's weakness is their defense and the fact they are 1-5 on the road. In fact, they have the same road record as the 49ers themselves. These 2 teams have not met since 2003, so revenge is no factor here. Cincy comes off a 19-10 win over the Rams, but was that really an impressive win considering it was against Brock Berlin? The Bengals have played in 3 straight unders and its because they have put up 10, 27, 21 and 20 in points on the road. The 49ers get another chance to prove themselves in front of the public eye today as they are 3-10 and come off a terrible game against the Vikings at home. But, the advantage is that they do face a defense that is 26th best in the league and 28th in points allowed. The 49ers are essentially dead last in many offensive categories but are 15th in the league in pass defense which should play a factor today. Despite Hill starting at quarterback today, the Bengals defense will make any quarterback look like they belong in the NFL. I believe the 49ers still have a lot to prove in this game in particular for Nolan who wants to remain as head coach and for Shaun Hill who does this give team a bit of a "spark" as Nolan describes it. I think you'll be surprised at how competitive the 49ers will be today.

 

Additional write-up:

Both of these teams are out of the playoffs, Shaun Hill did do a good job of leading this team when he was in the ballgame the last time out, I personally don't think a 1-5 team should be laying more than a touchdown on the road and the fact that Mike Nolan is fighting for his job is important here as well. Hill reminds me of a Jeff Garcia quarterback who when given the chance can shine as per him, this is his Super Bowl and I will take the 49ers as I think they give the Bengals all they can handle. Essentially one of the worst defenses in the league should not be laying this many points as this is not the Bengals of last year, but rather the Bengals of 2007 who have just 1 road win and 5 road losses. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS when a favorite by this margin and 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of late.

 

 

I've been tracking IC for a long time Dre, he's pretty solid. As an aside, he is wicked good with the NBA.

 

Don't like that Root is on Cincy, but I'm in on SF.

[Trots]

This game reminds me of New Orleans @ Atlanta from Monday Night. San Fran is a brutal, brutal team with an unproven QB. I cant see SF winning the game which is why I will probably tease Nati and the Over.

[whomper]

7-0 SF early 2nd..I took Cincy over 24.5..The game over 42.5 and Cincy -2.5 over 36.5 tease.. Lets go Cincy

[whomper]

7-0 SF early 2nd..I took Cincy over 24.5..The game over 42.5 and Cincy -2.5 over 36.5 tease.. Lets go Cincy

 

 

The Bengals are a sorry sorry franchise

Edited December 16, 2007 by whomper

[Gdawg]

The Bengals are a sorry sorry franchise

 

Yeah, they are pretty awful Whomp. Still, CIN was in a position to tie it up at the end, thanks to Mike Nolan. Why did SF go for it on 4th and 2 when a FG would have made it a two score game? Unbelievable.

[Gdawg]

Budin 10 point 3-team teaser for Sunday

 

50 DIME 3-TEAM TEASER

 

DALLAS

 

INDIANAPOLIS

 

MINNESOTA

 

Reduce the points you are laying with Dallas, Indianapolis and Minnesota (who plays on Monday night).

 

Note from S Budin:

 

Using the traditional 10 points you get in a three-team teaser, this Laughlin, Nevada-based group wants you to reduce the points you are laying with Dallas at home versus Philadelphia, reduce the points you are laying with Indianapolis at Oakland, and reduce the number of points you are laying with Minnesota at home Monday night versus Chicago.

[whomper]

I just put my biggest bet of the year on the Jets team total over 10..

[rattsass]

Budin 10 point 3-team teaser for Sunday

 

50 DIME 3-TEAM TEASER

 

DALLAS

 

INDIANAPOLIS

 

MINNESOTA

 

Reduce the points you are laying with Dallas, Indianapolis and Minnesota (who plays on Monday night).

 

Note from S Budin:

 

Using the traditional 10 points you get in a three-team teaser, this Laughlin, Nevada-based group wants you to reduce the points you are laying with Dallas at home versus Philadelphia, reduce the points you are laying with Indianapolis at Oakland, and reduce the number of points you are laying with Minnesota at home Monday night versus Chicago.

I love that play. Adding it myself.

[Gdawg]

I love that play. Adding it myself.

 

This play is, I believe, from Budin's group that specializes in teasers. Went pretty big on this one, I like it a lot too

[Steeltown Dre]

WAYNE ROOT:

 

Chairman - Panthers

Millionaire - Steelers

Money Maker - Redskins

No Limit - Cards

Insider Circle - Dolphins

Billionaire - Raiders --- GOY

[Gdawg]

FYI CB Rolle and S Jerome Sapp are doubtful for BAL today.

[Steeltown Dre]

Got another system win on SF last night. My personal plays, I posted 3 totals earlier, 3 of the 4 the weather games. I've added the Budin teaser as a 4th personal play, I agree w/ you guys, looks decent.

 

Other personal plays I made over the week:

 

Added more onto a system play I have on TB/ATL Under and more onto system play I have on GB/Stl Under. I really, really like my play on the GB/STL under - I am pretty large on it and have it at 52 Sorry - wrong line - I have this one at U45 . I think it will be more of a 40 to 44 point total.

 

Favs: GB, Ten

 

So there's my plays. 5 totals and 2 favs, and the Budin teaser, in addition to my system plays.

 

Good luck guys, stay warm, and hope we come out on top today!

Edited December 16, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

This guy supposedly is on fire, and we rarely see his plays. He's got several teasers for those who like them:

 

vegas-runner | NFL Total

triple-dime bet264 STL / 263 GBP Under 46.0 Bodog

Analysis:

 

*** 5* TOTAL of the YEAR WAGER ***

 

 

 

Yes sir, this will be our only 5* Total of the NFL regular season and everything points to it being a winner..first the oddsmaker was correct by sending it out much higher than it actually should be, expecting only OVER action and the books haven't been disappointed today...GBay will RUN-RUN-RUN then RUN some more as they prepare for the Playoffs and definately got some relief after clinching last weekend...they have rushed for 100+ yrds in 6 of their last 7 and with the Rams allowing 192 and 111 on the ground the past 2 weeks, they can expect more of it today...Also, the Packers have had problems with penalties on the road this year, averaging 10 per game, so that should help some drives stall out and possibly push them out of range at times..then finally looking at the YPPT for both teams, both offensively and defensively, and doing the calculations based on yards expected on both sides...the numbers point to this total being closer to 40..so lets see if we can hit out 2nd 5* wager of the NFL Season.

 

**************************************

 

vegas-runner | NFL Side

triple-dime bet274 OAK 11.0 (-110) Bodog vs 273 IND

Analysis:

 

** 3* NFL PLAY of the DAY **

 

 

 

Last week we faded the Raiders and cashed our Play of the Day on the Packers...well we will come right back and take them this week as they are at home and the Colts are just laying way too many in this spot...Indy allows 108 yrds rushing and 3.9 per carry and that should really be enough to help Oak keep Peyton and Co on the sidelines and actually bored at times, and just looking to escape the west coast with a win...Oak is 2-1 over their last 2 and if not for the blow-out loss in GBay last week, this one would be closer to a TD, as the Raiders may only be 2-4 at home, but they get outscored by only 3 a game and with them being able to rush for 132 and over 4 yrds per carry, I believe they keep this one very respectable.

 

******************************************

 

vegas-runner | NFL Money Line

triple-dime bet263 GBP (-130)SportBet vs 264 STL

Analysis:

 

** 3* NFL TEASER of the DAY **

 

 

 

UNDER 53 & SAN DIEGO -3 (3*) Teaser...if we hadn't had a TOY already in the NFL, this one may have been it !!!

 

***************************************

 

vegas-runner | NFL Money Line

triple-dime bet276 SDC (-130)Bodog vs 275 DET

Analysis:

 

*** 3* LATE NFL TEASER of the DAY **

 

 

 

SAN DIEGO -3 & OAKLAND +11 (3*) Teaser...

[whomper]

I just put my biggest bet of the year on the Jets team total over 10..

 

 

I might be focked

[whomper]

I might be focked

 

 

Blocked punt for a TD Jets

[whomper]

Blocked punt for a TD Jets

 

 

Jets driving off of a int and the fumble in fg range when I couldve got the push..I am filled with murderous rage

[whomper]

I just put my biggest bet of the year on the Jets team total over 10..

 

 

shanked a 35 yarder that would have given me a much needed win..I wish there was someone I could shoot right now a few times

Edited December 16, 2007 by whomper

[Gdawg]

Great start to the day, and then Dallas doesn't show up. Nice.

 

Rooting for WAS/NYG under 38 now so I can be even on the day. Even, after a great start, highly irritating...and I ain't even there yet

[rattsass]

Great start to the day, and then Dallas doesn't show up. Nice.

 

Rooting for WAS/NYG under 38 now so I can be even on the day. Even, after a great start, highly irritating...and I ain't even there yet

All Dallas had to do was win that game outright and I clean up today.

 

It's just never as easy as it seems.

[whomper]

All Dallas had to do was win that game outright and I clean up today.

 

It's just never as easy as it seems.

 

 

Pushing on that Jets bet (team over 10) was one of the most brutal non wins I have ever had to watch. Im still sick over it. I watched a turnover in FG range that would have given me the win..a TD get reviewed and reversed.. and then a 35 yarder get shanked..

Edited December 17, 2007 by whomper

[Gdawg]

All Dallas had to do was win that game outright and I clean up today.

 

It's just never as easy as it seems.

 

 

Pushing on that Jets bet (team over 10) was one of the most brutal non wins I have ever had to watch. Im still sick over it. I watched a turnover in FG range that would have given me the win..a TD get reviewed and reversed.. and then a 35 yarder get shanked..

 

 

My disgust knows no bounds at the moment. I don't think I've ever been more p issed with regard to short-term investing.

[Steeltown Dre]

Buf/Cle U 42.5

NE/NYJ U 46

Pit/Jac U 37

 

I hope to go at least 2-1 on those games. (I really liked Pit/Jac over if the weather was fine. I really liked it. But this weather, no way)

 

Did go 2-1 and the 1 loss was on the Pit/Jac over that I really did like and the weather in Pittsburgh didn't turn out to be as bad as the winds in NYG/NE or the snow in Cle.

 

Overall, weather games went 3-1 unders this weekend (NYG/Was being the 3rd win)

 

Got another system win on SF last night. My personal plays, I posted 3 totals earlier, 3 of the 4 the weather games. I've added the Budin teaser as a 4th personal play, I agree w/ you guys, looks decent.

 

Other personal plays I made over the week:

 

Added more onto a system play I have on TB/ATL Under and more onto system play I have on GB/Stl Under. I really, really like my play on the GB/STL under - I am pretty large on it and have it at 52 Sorry - wrong line - I have this one at U45 . I think it will be more of a 40 to 44 point total.

 

Favs: GB, Ten

 

So there's my plays. 5 totals and 2 favs, and the Budin teaser, in addition to my system plays.

 

Lost on the Budin teaser, lost on the TB/ATL under and split the GB/STL Under - I had it early in the week at a higher line from my local but doubled up on it at U45 and lost. The line closed at 47 so many probably pushed that one. I also won on my 2 ATS sides, w/ Ten being a double up reversal of my KC system play.

 

So for personal plays, it's dirty, but overall went 3-3 on totals, 2-0 on ATS favs and 0-1 on Budin, so a total of 5-4 this week.

 

System did pretty well - the top 5 ATS plays went 2-3, but I didn't play NE, and reversed the KC bet on Ten, so overall I went 3-1 on those. And picked up some good money in other facets of the system plays. Finally got a good ML "wrong team favored" w/ Mia.

 

The only play I have on this one tonight so far is the U 43.5 per my system. I'm not 100% confident, as Min can strike quick, and Chi has Hester. We will see what, if anything, I'm seeing and feeling for today.

[Steeltown Dre]

Pushing on that Jets bet (team over 10) was one of the most brutal non wins I have ever had to watch. Im still sick over it. I watched a turnover in FG range that would have given me the win..a TD get reviewed and reversed.. and then a 35 yarder get shanked..

 

That is a tough one whomper. That ticket was all but cashed in...

[Steeltown Dre]

These guys won their other 10* of the weekend yesterday on TB killing ATL. Tonight:

 

THE GOLD SHEET- CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF (CKO)

 

10* CHICAGO over *Minnesota

Late Score Forecast:

CHICAGO 24 - *Minnesota 23

(Monday, December 16)

 

Yes, the Vikes and their young offense is good. But Minnesota is still vulnerable vs. the pass on defense. And,while the defending NFC champs are virtually out of the playoffs, they still have plenty of coaching, talent, and pride.And they haven’t been a double-digit underdog in more than three years,and they covered that one (at Minnesota!).