Draft Strategies Changing...

[Grits and Shins]

It's the same reason why some LT owners think he's been a semi-bust.

 

[MTSuper7]

 

 

I'm not saying I think LT has been a bust in any way, but earlier in the season some people thought so.

[bushwacked]

I tried RB-WR-WR this season and it failed miserably.

 

Rudi and Steve Smith seemed like a good start picking at #12

I'll never take a WR that high again, I'll wait until the end of the 2nd or the 3rd for a WR.

 

 

I've played FF long enough to never lock into or out of a strategy...if Rudi stayed healthy and Delhomme was throwing the ball to Smith all year you would probably be inclined to try RB-WR next year.

[Cunning Runt]

Generally speaking I go after RBs, but we do auctions in my two leagues so it's more specific player-oriented than draft-slot oriented.

 

That said, I've done plenty of drafts and my take is that it really doesn't matter what your strategy so long as it's within reason. It all comes down to how they actually play in a given year.

 

For example - everyone thought Brady would be good this year, but this good? Not a chance. I had LJ and Ronnie Brown in one league. How do you think I did in that one?

 

This year, more than any other in the 10+ years I've been doing this, is evidence that in a competitive legue where people know what they're doing, a successful season is really about 2 things - avoiding injuries and transactions, be they waivers, drop/adds, or trades.

[Grits and Shins]

 

I've played FF long enough to never lock into or out of a strategy...if Rudi stayed healthy and Delhomme was throwing the ball to Smith all year you would probably be inclined to try RB-WR next year.

 

My strategy when I draft is to draft the best available player while addressing my roster needs.

 

General rules of thumb in my drafts:

 

I almost ALWAYS make sure I get at least 1 RB in the first 2 picks.

I almost NEVER take a QB before the 5th round

I almost ALWAYS draft my core starters before filling in depth

I almost NEVER draft a DEF before the 8th round

I almost NEVER draft a PK before the last round

[bushwacked]

My strategy when I draft is to draft the best available player while addressing my roster needs.

 

General rules of thumb in my drafts:

 

I almost ALWAYS make sure I get at least 1 RB in the first 2 picks.

I almost NEVER take a QB before the 5th round

I almost ALWAYS draft my core starters before filling in depth

I almost NEVER draft a DEF before the 8th round

I almost NEVER draft a PK before the last round

 

 

Those are pretty good general rules of thumb for standard scoring leagues IMO....and I like prefacing those with the word "almost" myself. TOS saying he would never go RB-WR again is a bit mind boggling to say the least. I've had some very good success going RB-WR in the last couple years in 3 WR/flex/PPR leagues. I'll abandon the typical RB-RB strategy if the circumstances dictate that being a smart move. Our WCOFF team won our league going RB-WR-WR.

[Big Country]

As alluded to in bush's post above, league structure and to a much lesser extent scoring system have an affect on general draft strategy. There is no cookie cutter strategy that can work for all types of leagues.

 

Generally speaking, there is no value based reason to go QB early, UNLESS you are in a start 2 QB league.

 

If you do not have a flex spot, generally speaking RBs will be much more valuable than WRs, even in PPR leagues where WRs may actually score more (not the top ranked ones as the top RBs generally get significant action in the passing game to, pushing them even farther up the scale value wise).

 

If you start a mandatory 3WRs and only 1 RB and say have one flex spot in a 12 team league, WR values will become more in line with RBs simply due to supply and demand.

 

There are many more scenarios I'm sure, but the above are the most common fundamental flaws I see many owners make in strategy in most of the common league structures out there.

 

Generally speaking, I won't jump on a QB until the 5th or 6th round at the earliest, but, put me in a 12-team start 2 QB league, and I may well be taking one in the middle of the first and certainly am likely to have at least one in my first two picks, as, much like RBs, there are 3-5 that on paper should be true studs, then a grouping of 10-12 that should put up similar numbers but have the potential to be big.

 

Generally speaking, the biggest affect of PPR is in the flex spot when comparing say an RB available in the 6th-8th round vs a WR available at that pick.... because the WR is more likely to get receptions, they often times could be more valuable than the available RBs. The backend of an RBBC may be likely to go for say 60 total yards with 2 catches in a good game, or about 8 points, while a WR available in that rounf may be more likely to go for 4 catches for 60 yards on average, or about 10 points. Value advantage to the WR. (Although, I do put the caveat in that league drafting tendencies etc. may make it more strategically correct to take the RB at this point for depth purposes if it is more likely that a comparable WR falls to you in the next round)

[Cameltosis]

I draft the player I think will score me the most points.

[MTSuper7]

Generally speaking I go after RBs, but we do auctions in my two leagues so it's more specific player-oriented than draft-slot oriented.

 

That said, I've done plenty of drafts and my take is that it really doesn't matter what your strategy so long as it's within reason. It all comes down to how they actually play in a given year.

 

For example - everyone thought Brady would be good this year, but this good? Not a chance. I had LJ and Ronnie Brown in one league. How do you think I did in that one?

 

This year, more than any other in the 10+ years I've been doing this, is evidence that in a competitive legue where people know what they're doing, a successful season is really about 2 things - avoiding injuries and transactions, be they waivers, drop/adds, or trades.

 

This assumes a good draft in the first place. You can avoid injuries and make smart moves, but if your first five rounds went Peyton, MJD, Donald Driver, Thomas Jones, and Lee Evans, it wasn't the injury bug that bit. It was the under-achiever bug (relative to draft position). Still, shrewd trades could salvage a start like this, but the core draft still needs to be solid.

 

And from other posts, I concur with Grits - I never draft a QB prior to the 5th round. Every year there is plenty of value at QB from the 5th round on after over-zealous owners take guys like Manning, Brady, Carson Palmer in the first few rounds. I was in a league this season where the #2 overall pick was Manning. Granted, with this weird season, it ended up working out that he didn't take Steven Jackson or Frank Gore with that pick. But I would NEVER take a QB that early. Even Brady after this season.

[BeeR]

for the most part RBs will always rule the roost....the key to any draft strategy is selecting the right players(easier said then done)

In our auction PPR and after all the RB busts this year, I'm thinking WRs will cost more next year and RBs will slide....(oh and Brady will cost a truckload).

[Bill Swerski]

I've never gotten far in a start-two-RB league when I didn't draft both of them in the first three rounds. I realize that it's possible to win going RB-WR-WR-RB, but RB reliability tends to really fall off quickly after the 2nd round. You might get lucky with an injury to an established guy (say, Ahman Green replacing Dorsey Levens in 2000 or SA replacing Ricky Watters in 2001), but those scenarios don't occur every year. And even when it does, securing the waiver wire priority to nab these diamonds in the rough is far from easy.

 

I've ditched the strategy of drafting RB depth. I don't see the point in spending a 4th or 5th round pick on an RBBC guy like Taylor or Norwood, when I can just draft the backups of my guys from the first two rounds in the 10th and 11th rounds and spend my 4th/5th-round picks on WRs. This may create a problem on bye weeks in leagues where only the top four teams get into the playoffs or leagues that have bye weeks for the top two seeds. But my experience is that being short-handed on those bye weeks is worth the extra WR and/or QB depth.

Edited December 14, 2007 by Bill Swerski

[BeeR]

I've never gotten far in a start-two-RB league when I didn't draft both of them in the first three rounds. I realize that it's possible to win going RB-WR-WR-RB, but RB reliability tends to really fall off quickly after the 2nd round.

Try the first pick. I was PO'd I missed out on guys like Rudi J and Henry and etc etc this year. whew.

[Avernus]

I can do you one better: I look to draft better players than others. So far, I've had moderate success.

 

I just draft the best players.....so there, I win!!!

[Avernus]

This assumes a good draft in the first place. You can avoid injuries and make smart moves, but if your first five rounds went Peyton, MJD, Donald Driver, Thomas Jones, and Lee Evans, it wasn't the injury bug that bit. It was the under-achiever bug (relative to draft position). Still, shrewd trades could salvage a start like this, but the core draft still needs to be solid.

 

And from other posts, I concur with Grits - I never draft a QB prior to the 5th round. Every year there is plenty of value at QB from the 5th round on after over-zealous owners take guys like Manning, Brady, Carson Palmer in the first few rounds. I was in a league this season where the #2 overall pick was Manning. Granted, with this weird season, it ended up working out that he didn't take Steven Jackson or Frank Gore with that pick. But I would NEVER take a QB that early. Even Brady after this season.

 

I sometimes draft players as trade bait so I can build the team that I really want heading into the season...

 

every year that I win, I am active in trading because not many players stay strong throughout and you need to shuffle your lineup to stay on top of things like the Ryan Grants of the world...