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NFL PLAYOFF SLEEPER TEAM?


mrbass24
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dont get me wrong i would love for colts to beat Pats and would be rooting for them but i believe a game in foxboro , perhaps without a total healthy Harrison would make it tough for Colts to win

 

i think a team that can run and run and run ( if chargers are smart enough to feed LT all game long unlike last years playoff debacle vs Pats ) , and gets some help from the weather ( where it effects Pats aerial show ) has the best chance to beat Pats ...that is why i was looking at the chargers

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dont get me wrong i would love for colts to beat Pats and would be rooting for them but i believe a game in foxboro , perhaps without a total healthy Harrison would make it tough for Colts to win

 

i think a team that can run and run and run ( if chargers are smart enough to feed LT all game long unlike last years playoff debacle vs Pats ) , and gets some help from the weather ( where it effects Pats aerial show ) has the best chance to beat Pats ...that is why i was looking at the chargers

 

 

That's very possible. The revenge factor is there with the Chargers as well. It should be interesting to watch.

 

How healthy is Marvin? They may be playing a Belichick game there. All I have heard is would play were it the playoffs. Freeney is a definite loss though.

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dont get me wrong i would love for colts to beat Pats and would be rooting for them but i believe a game in foxboro , perhaps without a total healthy Harrison would make it tough for Colts to win

 

i think a team that can run and run and run ( if chargers are smart enough to feed LT all game long unlike last years playoff debacle vs Pats ) , and gets some help from the weather ( where it effects Pats aerial show ) has the best chance to beat Pats ...that is why i was looking at the chargers

 

I still don't see how the Chargers offense would be more effective than the Colts in Foxboro. IMO, a balanced offense that can run the ball effectively will have a better shot up there. While SD does a slightly better job on the ground than the Colts do, Rivers doesn't scare anybody and LT would see eight men in the box frequently. SD's O-line is good, but they're not THAT good.

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Gonzalez also missed most of that game. Moorehead played flanker and a practice squad guy played the slot.

 

 

Moorehead had a hugh drop late in that game

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I still don't see how the Chargers offense would be more effective than the Colts in Foxboro. IMO, a balanced offense that can run the ball effectively will have a better shot up there. While SD does a slightly better job on the ground than the Colts do, Rivers doesn't scare anybody and LT would see eight men in the box frequently. SD's O-line is good, but they're not THAT good.

 

 

good pt on the balance part with colts as they can run and Manning is so much better than Rivers ...alot of this is predicated on the weather ...if the weather is bad , i would take LT running even with 8 in the box over what any other team can do against pats

 

i would be more than happy to see chargers and or Colts win regardless

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good pt on the balance part with colts as they can run and Manning is so much better than Rivers ...alot of this is predicated on the weather ...if the weather is bad , i would take LT running even with 8 in the box over what any other team can do against pats

 

I understand what you're saying. But this Pats defense has a much stronger Front 7 than what they've had over the past two seasons. Harrison and Seau are both healthy, and they now have Thomas as well. Combine those three with Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Bruschi, and Vrabel, and it's going to be really tough to run the ball with Phillip "I've Been Exposed as Very Average" Rivers under center.

 

Your argument against the Colts is supported by the fact that their O-line is really banged up right now. I'm expecting that to change over the next few weeks, but I could be wrong.

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good pts swerski

 

i still do not understand how Ravens and Mcgahee ran so well vs Pats ...it appeared that were hell bent on running and running and not changing their game plan ...i would think SD doing same with tomlinson would produce at least same results if not much better

 

we shall see i guess

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While I do believe that the Colts have the "best" chance of beating the Colts, I would have to say the team that scares me the most is Jax if there is bad weather. Jax is a team that plays great in bad weather games and in NE at that time of year the chances are the weather is going to be bad. That will be a great game if it happens!

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I believe that they've been holding Marvin out as a precaution and I'd expect to see him back in the playoffs. Not having a healthy Freeney is the bigger problem, IMO.

 

The Chargers are a good team, but they've seriously regressed on both sides of the ball since last year (when they couldn't beat an inferior Pats team). The Colts defense is specifically designed to not give up the deep (15+ yd) pass, which matches them up well against this year's Pats offense. I think that they're going to have problems pressuring Brady without sending Sanders on blitzes, but I still think that they have the best chance of taking NE down.

 

 

A Pats/Colts AFC Championship game is the game I really want to see. I don't see anyone besides these two being able to beat either of these two :D . I also agree that the loss of Freeney is huge. Even though nobody has beaten the Pats the closest games were games where Brady was pressured early and often. Losing Freeney doesn't help the Indy pass rush.

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While I do believe that the Colts have the "best" chance of beating the Colts, I would have to say the team that scares me the most is Jax if there is bad weather. Jax is a team that plays great in bad weather games and in NE at that time of year the chances are the weather is going to be bad. That will be a great game if it happens!

 

Jax may have the parts but they don't have the experience or coaching. IMO

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good pts swerski

 

i still do not understand how Ravens and Mcgahee ran so well vs Pats ...it appeared that were hell bent on running and running and not changing their game plan ...i would think SD doing same with tomlinson would produce at least same results if not much better

 

we shall see i guess

 

One thing that you have to consider when analyzing the Pats Defense is how much of their stats are influenced by the performance of their offense? For instance in most games this year the Pats have jumped out to early leads causing most teams to abandon their running games by half time, so the yds rushing per game for the Pats Defense should be lower than expected based on this and the Pats passing defense was able to sit back and wait for the ball to be thrown, making it easier to defend the pass. This thought process is backed up when you see that the pats Passing Defense is 5th best in the league. But their run defense was still only 10th best, which is good but not as good as you would have expected for a team with so many big leads.

 

This is because of the success that teams had running the ball when they kept the score close. Dallas got 100 yds on just 15 carries, Addai went for 112 yds, McGahee & Smith combined for 162 yds & even the Jets got 86 yds on just 15 carries. The only team that stayed close without running well were the eagles when westbrook went for just 52 yds on 17 carries.

 

The point is the Pats can be run on. So it is really no surprise that McGahee torched them. The secret is out, double team Moss and make them run and you can stay close, The Pats have escaped a few close calls which is part of what makes them such a good team, but now the competition is about to heat up.

 

Granted, Pittsburgh is not very scary right now and neither are either Tenn or Cleveland (depending on which one gets in) but Jax is a GREAT run team, San Diego is playing very well right now and they have LT2. The Colts have already proven they can stay close with a banged up team and now, except for Freeney, they are much healthier than they were the last time they played NE.

 

I think any one of these 3 teams are capable of beating NE. I know it is the job of Pats fans to deny this statement but if the Pats are looking past these teams the way their fans are then the Pats will lose in the playoffs.

 

I take nothing away from what the Pats have done this year, they are about to go 16-0 but one simply can not ignore 2 very important facts, one is that their division opponents are not very good, and two, they simply have not played as well in the last 3rd of the season.

 

They simply must raise their level of play going into the playoffs or they may very well take an early exit.

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Pittsburgh is not very scary right now and neither are either Tenn or Cleveland (depending on which one gets in) but Jax is a GREAT run team, San Diego is playing very well right now and they have LT2. The Colts have already proven they can stay close with a banged up team and now, except for Freeney, they are much healthier than they were the last time they played NE.

Agreed on Pitt, Ten, and Cle - they just don't look to have it this year.

 

But Jax, in particular, plays the brand of football that the Pats seem to have the most trouble with. SD has a sick amount of talent, but I figure between Rivers and Turner, they have two mediocre, overmatched people in position to cost them any game at any time.

 

 

NFC - well, I just think Tampa is the NFC equivalent of the Titans - solid group, but when they start facing down elite competition, they'll be exposed. I like Seattle, but they are essentially the same team as Green Bay, only not quite as good - and nobody seems to be fearing the Packers at all; why would anyone fear their little brother on the road? The Giants are basically San Diego, just substitute Eli/Coughlin for Rivers/Norv. Minny might be the closest thing to a true sleeper, but even if they've fixed the pass D a bit, you still have Tarvaris Jackson at Qb, which just ain't gonna do it.

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Agreed on Pitt, Ten, and Cle - they just don't look to have it this year.

 

I'd agree that the Steelers do have to much to overcome to win 4 games in the post-season. Their offensive line is weak, their defense, though they still rank very high, has been extremely inconsistent lately.

 

All that said, I still think the Steelers are dangerous. Their defense at times looks unbelievable, and Roethlisberger has emerged as an elite QB. Their likely opening rounder, the re-match at Heinz with the Jaguars is going to be a phenomenal battle between two teams who play a very similar type of game. I can't wait.

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I'd agree that the Steelers do have to much to overcome to win 4 games in the post-season. Their offensive line is weak, their defense, though they still rank very high, has been extremely inconsistent lately.

 

All that said, I still think the Steelers are dangerous. Their defense at times looks unbelievable, and Roethlisberger has emerged as an elite QB.

I don't doubt Pitt's talent; their consistency - especially since they'd have to go on the road for 3 games after the first round - is troubling. And I'm not sold on Tomlin; he isn't awful, but can he be an elite guy?*

 

 

* - yes, I realize it's his first year, and he probably has a good career ahead of him. But it's another black mark against the Steelers in the playoffs; Dungy and Belicheck are proven playoff winners, and even Fisher and Del Rio have playoff seasoning.

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I don't doubt Pitt's talent; their consistency - especially since they'd have to go on the road for 3 games after the first round - is troubling. And I'm not sold on Tomlin; he isn't awful, but can he be an elite guy?*

* - yes, I realize it's his first year, and he probably has a good career ahead of him. But it's another black mark against the Steelers in the playoffs; Dungy and Belicheck are proven playoff winners, and even Fisher and Del Rio have playoff seasoning.

 

Yeah, good points, and I agree with all of them, except one. I do think that Tomlin can be an elite coach. He came into a tough situation, trying to replace a local, legendary coach. I'm very happy with his 1st year.

 

However, this game today is very frustrating for me. Yes, the game means very little, and we have some players resting. However, a game like this shows a team's resolve and heart, and I haven't liked what I've seen one bit. Like you said, the talent is there with the Steelers, but, you have to be playing consistent football come playoff time, and they simply are not playing that way.

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But Jax, in particular, plays the brand of football that the Pats seem to have the most trouble with. SD has a sick amount of talent, but I figure between Rivers and Turner, they have two mediocre, overmatched people in position to cost them any game at any time..

 

From what I've seen of Rivers this season, he doesn't play well when his team is behind or in clutch situations. The Chargers have a lot going for them, but no element of their game is so dominating that they can overcome mediocre to poor QB play.

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