Wildcard Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Hope you all had a great holiday season and are ready for 2008. Quick recap on the regular season, including a comparison to last season. If you want to skip this and look straight at the playoff info, look at post #2.

 

"Posted plays" hit at 48-35-3, and including leans posted I went 58-36-3 (62%)

 

System Plays (I'll go from the top hitting to the worst hitting):

 

Overs Sys #1: 18-1 (95%)

Overs Sys #2: 22-6 (79%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)

"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)

ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)

O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)

Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)

Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)

Wrong Team Favored: 16-17-2 (48%)

 

I typically played most every single one of these plays. Some exceptions included NE about halfway through the season, as the system had them covering most games, and I decided to pass on many. Sometimes my "posted plays" faded a system play that I didn't like, but for the most part, I let the dice roll and collected.

 

My overs did incredibly well, Spread plays hit over 60% as well. When comparing systems and the leans, both ATS and O/U plays hit at 60%. The only plays I was disappointed with were the last two listed. Many times the wrong team favored plays looked good for a half, and then the dog died out. I'll investigate what would have happened if I made 1st half plays on those dogs, so I can improve next year.

 

Here's how my system did in 2006. As you can see, I started developing additional plays for 2007, but at any rate:

 

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)

Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)

Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)

All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)

All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

 

I didn't play the leans last year, and they hit over 60% each, which is why I started playing them this year and hit at 60%. This year I also developed the additional O/U system (#2) which hit 79% overs and 58% unders, so I was happy w/ it.

 

So this year I used my system to make more plays and adjusted my units some to capitalize on my Overs system, and wound up making more this year than even last year, which was a very profitable year for me.

 

Looking back, I'm already anticipating 2008 regular season, but we've got some playoffs to put that icing on another fine season.

 

Last year in the playoffs I did very well in the Wildcard round but struggled some in the Divisional round. I made a very large play in the Conf Champs last year that won and paid quite well (Took Indy to win SB at +150 instead of Indy ML over NE in the CC round), and allowed me to shoot for a middle in the SB. While I didn't get the middle, the hedge was for a small % and walked away up nicely in the playoffs as a result.

 

So enough about last season and this year's regular season, onto the playoffs:

[Steeltown Dre]

It could be coincidence, but my top ATS system is virtually locked into the opening lines for these games this weekend. Which shows the lines are very tight. Usually there are games a point or two off, or sometimes even more. But this week, it's dead on. Here is what my system shows as lines and what the lines opened at:

 

Fav, My Line, Open, Current

Sea -3.9, -5, -3.5

Pit -1.2, -1, 1 (2 be found)

TB -2.7, -1, -3

SD -9.4, -7, -9.5

 

As you can see, most current lines are dead on with my line except for Pittsburgh. But you've got the news of Marvel Smith out and other injury issues, and the line has moved towards Jac.

 

Therefore, there are no "generated" plays because the lines are too tight. From the numbers I have seen, public is on all opening dogs except for SD. (So pub is on Jac, as they were the opening dog).

 

The 18-1 Over system generated a play on Pit/Jac over. I got in at 37.5 when it opened on Sunday night. It now sits at 39 or 39.5, and even then, the system still says to play it. It thinks this is a 43 to 45 point game.

 

So that is my largest play so far.

 

I'll post more on these games over the next couple of days as I look more into them. Hopefully you guys have some good insights to these as well and have time now to share w/ the rest of us. Let's try to lock in and get the playoffs off to a good start.

Edited January 2, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Also, checked weather in Pittsburgh and as of Sunday it was looking fine. Right now, it's calling for temps in the upper 30s, winds 10 mph, and a 20% chance of rain.

 

Keep an eye on this the next few days, but that is still some mild weather there considering it's January in Pittsburgh and the game is at 8pm.

[Gdawg]

Congrats on your season Dre, good stuff

 

Just beginning to take a look at the games myself, been very busy with family and of course college football

 

If anyone is interested in tonight's game, Budin has a 50 D play on the Sooners.

[Trots]

Thanks for the info Gdawg.

[wildcat2334]

I like Seatlle as a solid play. Wash is a feel-good story, everyone is high on them to do some damage agains the Hawks, and the line has dropped to 3......not so fast -

 

I don't see them coming into the best homefield advantage in the NFL with an untested QB, and beating Seattle

 

Sea -3

[Trots]

I like Seatlle as a solid play. Wash is a feel-good story, everyone is high on them to do some damage agains the Hawks, and the line has dropped to 3......not so fast -

 

I don't see them coming into the best homefield advantage in the NFL with an untested QB, and beating Seattle

 

Sea -3

+1

[Steeltown Dre]

Thought I'd drop some info here from past Wildcard round games. I have spreadsheets dating back years, but for this analysis I will take it back to 1992:

 

Spread Analysis:

 

Home Team has been favored in 58 of the 64 games

 

The 6 times the road team has been favored: 2-4 ATS and 2-4 SU

The road fav has never won but not covered

Therefore, if you like Pit, I would put some or most on ML

However, the past 2 times a visitor was favored (Pit at Cin in 06, Ten at Bal in 04) the visitor won. The other 4 visitor losses came in 96 and 01.

 

The 58 times the home team has been favored: 30-27-1 ATS and 40-18 SU

The home fav has won 9 games where they did not cover and 1 game that pushed on 3

A closer look at home favs by season:

 

1992 0-4 ATS, 2-2 SU

1993 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

1994 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU

1995 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU

1996 2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU

1997 3-1 ATS, 3-1 SU

1998 3-1 ATS, 3-1 SU

1999 2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU

2000 3-1 ATS, 3-1 SU

2001 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

2002 3-1 ATS, 3-1 SU

2003 1-3 ATS, 3-1 SU

2004 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU

2005 1-3 ATS, 1-3 SU

2006 1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU

2007 2-2 ATS, 4-0 SU

 

Travel Analysis:

 

This year there are 2 East Coast teams traveling to the West Coast in the Wildcard round. Here is how these matchups have gone in the past:

 

03 NYG +3 @ SF; Final: SF 39, NYG 38

02 NYJ +4.5 @ Oak; Final: Oak 38, NYJ 24

00 Mia +3.5 @ Sea; Final: Mia 20, Sea 17

97 Phi +10.5 @ SF; Final: SF 14, Phi 0

 

The East Coast team has gone 2-2 ATS, so no advantage or disadvantage there, which is different than what you may suspect

 

Overall, teams going from East Coast to West Coast in any round:

 

WC: 2-2 ATS, 1-3 SU

Div: 2-2 ATS, 0-4 SU

CC: 1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU

 

Totals:

 

Overall, 29 Overs and 35 Unders in the WC round

 

 

If there are any questions you have about historical info since 92, feel free to ask and I can help you out if I am able.

Edited January 3, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

1st Q bets are usually pretty risky and I'm not one to play them much, but look at these numbers:

 

SD has averaged 10.1 ppg in the 1st Q at home this year and has allowed 0 ppg in the 1st Q.

 

Ten has averaged 3.2 ppg in the 1st Q on the road this year and has allowed 4.4 ppg in the 1st Q.

 

A look at Ten after the 1st:

 

@ Jac 3-7

@ NO 3-0

@ TB 0-0

@ Hou 6-7

@ Den 0-14

@ Cin 0-7

@ KC 7-0

@ Ind 7-0

 

You can get SD -3 for the 1st Q. So whether you look at what they each allow or what they each score, SD seems like it is capable of covering the 3. I have not made this particular play yet, but am thinking about it.

 

Does anyone know a site which carries avg possessions per quarter for each team?

[Steeltown Dre]

Travel Analysis:

 

This year there are 2 East Coast teams traveling to the West Coast in the Wildcard round. Here is how these matchups have gone in the past:

 

03 NYG +3 @ SF; Final: SF 39, NYG 38

02 NYJ +4.5 @ Oak; Final: Oak 38, NYJ 24

00 Mia +3.5 @ Sea; Final: Mia 20, Sea 17

97 Phi +10.5 @ SF; Final: SF 14, Phi 0

 

The East Coast team has gone 2-2 ATS, so no advantage or disadvantage there, which is different than what you may suspect

 

I realized I left out 2 games from the analysis somehow:

 

05 NYJ +6.5 @ SD; Final: NYJ 20, SD 17

96 Ind +5.5 @ SD; Final: Ind 35, SD 20

 

So, overall East going West in the WC have gone 4-2 ATS with 3 SU wins, which is suprising as it is solid.

 

And those 3 SU wins have come in SD and Sea, both of whom are hosting games this weekend.

[Steeltown Dre]

Looking at totals the last 10 years for WC round:

 

Year: O-U

 

98: 2-2

99: 1-3

00: 0-4

01: 1-3

02: 3-1

03: 2-2

04: 3-1

05: 1-3

06: 1-3

07: 1-3

 

It's not hard to see that betting blind unders would give you winning years in 6 of the 10, w/ #7 and #8 being 50/50.

 

And don't forget, the last 5 years, home favs have gone only 7-11 ATS in the WC round.

 

Here are some %s as I'm seeing them:

 

Was 66% ATS, 88% ML

Jac 72% ATS, 53% ML

NYG 69% ATS, 85% ML

SD 65% ATS, 53% ML

[Gdawg]

I realized I left out 2 games from the analysis somehow:

 

05 NYJ +6.5 @ SD; Final: NYJ 20, SD 17

96 Ind +5.5 @ SD; Final: Ind 35, SD 20

 

So, overall East going West in the WC have gone 4-2 ATS with 3 SU wins, which is suprising as it is solid.

 

And those 3 SU wins have come in SD and Sea, both of whom are hosting games this weekend.

 

So far, I like Sea -3. Yes, WAS is one of the "momentum" teams right now, and it has emotion going for it, but I'm not buying it. I think SEA is a better team and it is hosting this matchup. Not sure I'll roll with it yet, but those are my initial thoughts.

 

I'm also leaning towards PIT, but less so, given PIT's injury concerns. Still, I have a gut feeling they'll get it done. Going to look into it some more.

 

Haven't found anything w/regard to average poss. by quarter, but will keep looking around.

[Steeltown Dre]

So far, I like Sea -3. Yes, WAS is one of the "momentum" teams right now, and it has emotion going for it, but I'm not buying it. I think SEA is a better team and it is hosting this matchup. Not sure I'll roll with it yet, but those are my initial thoughts.

 

I'm also leaning towards PIT, but less so, given PIT's injury concerns. Still, I have a gut feeling they'll get it done. Going to look into it some more.

 

Haven't found anything w/regard to average poss. by quarter, but will keep looking around.

 

As for the Pit game, here's some info on home dogs in the WC round:

 

I said before they are 4-2 SU (and therefore ATS). Here's the lines they had:

 

06 Pit -3 @ Cin, Pit won by 14

04 Ten -1 @ Bal, Ten won by 3

01 Ind -1.5 @ Mia, Mia won

01 StL -5.5 @ NO, NO won

01 TB -3 @ Phi, Phi won

96 Det -3 @ Phi, Phi won

 

So the only time in recent history a home dog would have lost on a 3 point line was in 06, but remember, Cin's starting QB went out early, so that was a different game.

 

Getting 3 is definite "value", and a ML win would be even sweeter. However, remember: it's only a "value" if they get the cover. You can find value in many spots, but if it loses, it's still just as much a loss as a non-value loss.

 

Everyone is looking at that game a few weeks ago. A few things to point out from that game:

 

Pit was down 22-7 to start the 4th

Pit scored on a very short TD after an int return for 50 yds to be down by 8 soon thereafter

Despite Pit being down and needing to throw, Ben had only 146 yards passing, a season low

Jac 5 sacks on Ben, Pit 0 Sacks on Garrard

All you hear about is Jac's running, and they did run (Taylor 147 on 25 rushes, MJD 69 on 12 rushes = 5.8 ypc)

But Willie averaged 7.14 ypc (100 yds on 14 carries)

And you may hear "Willie had one for 27, so the avg is less"

Take out the best run of each guy: Taylor had a 38, MJD had a 20, Willie had a 27

Now the averages become Taylor 3.36 ypc, MJD 3.08 ypc, Willie 4.21 ypc

Of course, Willie isn't playing this game, but we'll have to see the dropoff in production which is not certain yet

 

Just some things to think about.

[Gdawg]

As for the Pit game, here's some info on home dogs in the WC round:

 

I said before they are 4-2 SU (and therefore ATS). Here's the lines they had:

 

06 Pit -3 @ Cin, Pit won by 14

04 Ten -1 @ Bal, Ten won by 3

01 Ind -1.5 @ Mia, Mia won

01 StL -5.5 @ NO, NO won

01 TB -3 @ Phi, Phi won

96 Det -3 @ Phi, Phi won

 

So the only time in recent history a home dog would have lost on a 3 point line was in 06, but remember, Cin's starting QB went out early, so that was a different game.

 

Getting 3 is definite "value", and a ML win would be even sweeter. However, remember: it's only a "value" if they get the cover. You can find value in many spots, but if it loses, it's still just as much a loss as a non-value loss.

 

Everyone is looking at that game a few weeks ago. A few things to point out from that game:

 

Pit was down 22-7 to start the 4th

Pit scored on a very short TD after an int return for 50 yds to be down by 8 soon thereafter

Despite Pit being down and needing to throw, Ben had only 146 yards passing, a season low

Jac 5 sacks on Ben, Pit 0 Sacks on Garrard

All you hear about is Jac's running, and they did run (Taylor 147 on 25 rushes, MJD 69 on 12 rushes = 5.8 ypc)

But Willie averaged 7.14 ypc (100 yds on 14 carries)

And you may hear "Willie had one for 27, so the avg is less"

Take out the best run of each guy: Taylor had a 38, MJD had a 20, Willie had a 27

Now the averages become Taylor 3.36 ypc, MJD 3.08 ypc, Willie 4.21 ypc

Of course, Willie isn't playing this game, but we'll have to see the dropoff in production which is not certain yet

 

Just some things to think about.

 

A few questions, Dre:

 

Weather is supposed to be pretty decent, isn't it? I know the last meeting was played in the snow, which can preoduce a real "wild card" result from time to time.

 

Is Troy P healthy and ready to go? Having him back would make a difference.

 

True, no Willie P, but honestly I like Davenport. He lacks some of FWP's strengths, but he is a bruiser.

 

On another note, PIT did lose the starting LT, what do we know about his replacement?

[Steeltown Dre]

A few questions, Dre:

 

Weather is supposed to be pretty decent, isn't it? I know the last meeting was played in the snow, which can preoduce a real "wild card" result from time to time.

 

Is Troy P healthy and ready to go? Having him back would make a difference.

 

True, no Willie P, but honestly I like Davenport. He lacks some of FWP's strengths, but he is a bruiser.

 

On another note, PIT did lose the starting LT, what do we know about his replacement?

 

First I'll say that there are some guys who will know a lot more about Troy P's health and Essex than I do. From what I do know, Troy practiced and looked good, and is set to play on Saturday. Essex is pretty bad and the Steelers don't need anything else to go wrong on their O-Line, let alone Essex getting inserted.

 

For the lines I like to look at some good numbers and I'm seeing the O-Lines neck and neck for run blocking, but for pass protection, Jac is ranked 17th whereas Pit is 31st. Reversing things on defense, Pit is #5 for stopping the run and Jac is #24, and they are neck and neck for getting sacks on the other team.

 

And that's without Essex.

 

So Jac is going to really bring the pressure and try to get to Ben. Pit will try to establish the run so they can get some play action going, but Ben really needs to have 2 seconds to look around after getting the ball, because there are times, he has 1 second or less before pressure is in his face up the middle.

 

The snow wasn't too bad and the field was as good as it's been recently, which isn't great but it wasn't too bad. Weather I've been monitoring due to my play on the over, and it's 40 and a 30% chance of rain. From another site I'm seeing a 60% chance of rain that starts around 4pm and goes thru 7am Sun. So I'll be disappointed if they get hit w/ a lot of rain during the game, I'm hoping it isn't too bad. We'll see closer to gametime on that.

 

As for Davenport, he had a good game against STL, but I am not too excited about him. Jac has a big line, and Davenport needs holes open longer than Willie. He's capable of putting up a good game, but his ability to do that is critical to the success of the team.

[Steeltown Dre]

video: http://www.thesportsadvisors.com/hdmain/co...andicapperId=62

 

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915 DIMES NET PROFIT

 

23-10 Football & Basketball Combined

 

+882 Dimes

 

NEW YORK CREW

 

NOW 6-0 WITH 100 DIME RELEASES

 

 

Steven Budin-CEO

SATURDAY'S PICK

 

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JACKSONVILLE

 

A note from Steve Budin:

 

Guys, since we're up 880 dimes with these releases I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point. This line is floating between 2 1/2 and 3 depending on where you shop. So if you've got Jacksonville at -3 I want you to buy the Jaguars down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get stuck with Jacksonville at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal. Naturally, do not buy down from 2 1/2; there is no need to.

[godtomsatan]

In order of preference:

 

JAX/PIT O39.5

WAS/SEA U40

JAC +2.5

SEA -3.5

[rattsass]

The spread on the Seattle game has moved to 3 at my book. With 66% of the money coming in on the Redskins I guess that is no surprise.

 

I'm switching sides in this one and playing Seattle -3. The money is just too lopsided on the 'Skins. Very surprising considering the Seahawks home record. I still think the Redskins will give them a game but at -3 I have to ride with the Seahawks. Was leaning toward the Redskins at +4 but that extra point makes a huge difference in my mind.

[Gdawg]

Budin 100D play on the Jags, eh?

 

Going to have to re-think things a little.

 

Of course, his 50D play on the Sooners wasn't so hot

 

I agree Ratt, I am pretty sure I am going with SEA tomorrow.

[Capt Skinman]

video: http://www.thesportsadvisors.com/hdmain/co...andicapperId=62

 

Why do I feel dirty inside just watching that video? I thought for sure he was gonna finish it off with a snuff film exclusive just for the VIP clients.

 

....and why wasn't Ron Jeremy dancing in the background?

[Gdawg]

I watched Budin's promo, gotta admit I feel like if I don't buy his pick he's gonna whack me

[Steeltown Dre]

I'm seeing rain moving into Pittsburgh between 4 and 6pm, w/ a 60-70% chance of rain starting at 6pm and continuing throughout the game.

 

This is unfortunate because there isn't much grass near the middle of the field. I'm hopeful the rain is not soaking or steady. Psychologically, it will affect the Jags more, as if I remember from watching all the "rain" games at Pittsburgh this year, running is more difficult on that field in the rain. It slows down the pass rush and slows down the RBs getting started and hitting the holes. So if anything, I think this could help Pittsburgh as they have the superior passing game. But it won't help the over.

[xMRogers]

Figures I put the over in my parlay today...I'm on:

 

Pitt - this is a throwaway as my initial gut was to take Jax - simply based on home dog concept along with the overwhelming Jax picks

 

Wash - comes down to if Collins is for real - if he is, Wash is the better team here - momentum plays a factor, but really this came is about one player

 

SD - really jsut a mismatch - this SD teams is a 13-14 win team that took a few games to get adjusted while Tenn is a 6 win team with a great coach and winner at QB that makes them that much better, but really banged up along with being overmatched - great reg season story, but ends today

 

Tampa - has there ever been a starker contrast in week 17 games for two teams matched up in week 18 in terms of the rest/not rest issue - not sure that'll really matter here, but someone will get second guessed probably (and possibly fired as both coaches really need a playoff win)

[whomper]

Some Hockey for you today fellas

 

Columbus/ San Jose under 1.5 first period and under 5 for the game

 

Rangers straight up over Edmonton

 

Ottowa team total over 3.5

[Randall]

I'm seeing rain moving into Pittsburgh between 4 and 6pm, w/ a 60-70% chance of rain starting at 6pm and continuing throughout the game.

 

This is unfortunate because there isn't much grass near the middle of the field. I'm hopeful the rain is not soaking or steady. Psychologically, it will affect the Jags more, as if I remember from watching all the "rain" games at Pittsburgh this year, running is more difficult on that field in the rain. It slows down the pass rush and slows down the RBs getting started and hitting the holes. So if anything, I think this could help Pittsburgh as they have the superior passing game. But it won't help the over.

 

 

Rain turning to ice can be brutal and Davenport has never been healthy this long. What are the temps?