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Wildcard Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Added note about the Chargers game:

 

This is the kind of game where you think all along you have it won. Then the Titans (down 30-13) drive the length of the field against the prevent defense in the last 2 minutes and blow the cover.

Edited by rattsass
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Can't start the playoffs any better than that.

 

The big play on the over from my 18-1 system was an easy winner, whether you had 37.5 or 38.5 as I had both, or if you had 39.5 thru 41. That was my big winner and was an easy winner. I also won on the Sea -3 play. While it's hard to fade Budin's undefeated NY Crew, I felt the right play was Pittsburgh, and took them at both +2.5 (b/c I couldn't buy to 3) and +3.

 

Interestingly, here was Budin's comment on his play:

 

"This line is floating between 2 1/2 and 3 depending on where you shop. So if you've got Jacksonville at -3 I want you to buy the Jaguars down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get stuck with Jacksonville at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal. Naturally, do not buy down from 2 1/2; there is no need to."

 

Well, sorry for him and his clients and anyone who tailed him and left the 2.5 out there.

 

I also had a jucy halftime play of Pit -2.5. I did not like the playcalling of the Steelers w/ the 1 point lead on that last drive - ultra conservative, especially running Ben on 3rd. But at any rate, in all plays went 6-0 but 4 of those plays were same side (Ov 37.5, Ov 38.5, Pit +2.5, Pit +3), so really 4-0 for me yesterday. I see some of you did good and many got in on that over so I'm happy it was a winner. I'll be back w/ my plays for today...

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I hear you Ratt. I just think the Bucs may be a little inflated. The Giants arent world beaters but I am starting to think they win outright here. Chargers game I see 35-17 or 41-10..I should probably stick to hockey though. I win in hockey all week and give it back in football :D Giants 28-17 or 28-20

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Bucs have a quick D, but the Giants have to many playmakers. I think SD is gonna roll it up on Tenn, mucho bad blood still from the last game, VY is not a playoff calibur QB right now, and LT will do whatever he wants today in the sun.

Well, I'm not heavily invested in either game but feeling pretty good about the Bucs. If they can force a few turnovers its probably lights out for the Giants.

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Today I'm rolling much lighter than yesterday. In fact, if my big play was the over last night, my #2 play was Sea, my #3 was Pit, then the following plays rank below all of those in terms of the amounts I'm wagering:

 

TB -2.5

Under 39.5 in SD/Ten

 

I'm not extremely confident in either, but thats what I've got pending for today. For the competition I am in, I have a play on SD.

 

Good luck today guys. Hope everyone can cash tickets today.

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I have a bigger play on Giants team total over 19 then I do on the giants for the game..1 quarter left. Come on big blue get me the 3 points and hold on for the win

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Lost on the TB play, won on the Under easily, and won on SD.

 

I hope you all turned in some great profits this week 1. I went 5-1 on posted plays, 6-1 including my halftime play on the Steelers. And of that 5-1, 3-0 on the larger plays including that huge total play.

 

Starting early w/ Divisional action - I'll have a new thread up momentarily. Let's transfer this momentum into another winning week.

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Dre' where do you stand on the BCS championship game? I have already hedged Ohio State +4.5 enough to come out with a profit this weekend regardless of the outcome. There has only been one of these "championships" that was decided by less than a TD so I am thinking any further hedging is probably throwing money away. Just curious what your thoughts are.

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Dre' where do you stand on the BCS championship game? I have already hedged Ohio State +4.5 enough to come out with a profit this weekend regardless of the outcome. There has only been one of these "championships" that was decided by less than a TD so I am thinking any further hedging is probably throwing money away. Just curious what your thoughts are.

 

Ratt - Unfortunately I am not a big on college football in terms of gambling. I watch it of course and bet on it at times, but my expertise in the sports betting side is not nearly close to that of the NFL. So I don't pretend to be more than what I am, and that is an NFL guy. I may make a play on the game, but, it's not near the level of my NFL plays, and it won't come w/ numbers/analysis to back it up, it will come from tailing a few sharp guys and a gut feeling is all. All I can do is pass along what I see to you as far as good cappers, and what I am seeing so far is several good touts on Ohio State. I'll post writeups from them and picks in this thread so we won't junk up the Divisional thread the rest of the week:

 

These guys have gone 24-7 so far this bowl season in their plays:

 

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS:

 

The craziest season ever ends with the matchup that most expected on Nov 4th, the 1st time TY that

these 2 were ranked #1-2. Since then both have lost gms & won conf championships while others fell victim

to the upset bug. They have met twice previously with OSU holding a 1-0-1 SU & 2-0 ATS advantage. This

is OSU’s 3rd title gm under Tressel (1-1 SU & ATS) while this is LSU’s 2nd BCS Championship gm following

their ‘03 upset of Okla under Saban. Tressel is 4-2 SU & ATS in bowls incl a 33-7 win over Miles’ OkSt tm in

the ‘04 Alamo Bowl. Miles is 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS in the post season incl 2-0 SU & ATS at LSU. Despite the

fact that Miles is a Michigan alum, he met with all of OSU’s coaching staff last spring in a friendly exchange

of ideas. The Tigers are playing just 65 miles away from their campus in the Superdome where they’ve gone

3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS the L/5Y. OSU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the dome. LSU has played the tougher sked with 9

gms vs bowl eligible tms (7-2 SU & 2-5-2 ATS) outscoring them 36-24 and outgaining them 437-294. OSU

played 7 bowl eligible squads going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS outscoring them 31-14 and outgaining them 378-230.

OSU is 0-8 SU & ATS all-time vs the SEC in bowls. LSU is 1-2 SU & ATS in the post season vs the B10.

OSU is 11-3 ATS away the L/3Y (4-1 ATS TY). The Bucks have pulled upsets the L/3 times they’ve been

installed as dogs (1st time TY) while LSU was favored in every gm (4-7-2 TY). OSU has just 3 Sr starters

and 13 upperclassmen while LSU has 12 Sr’s among their 18 upperclassmen. OSU once again has 51 days

between gms which caused Tressel to change their entire post season routine while LSU has 37.

OSU’s 2007 season unofficially began on Jan 8th when the favored Bucks were humiliated 41-14

by Florida in the BCS Title game. Tressel used that score as off-season motivation as it was the players’

access code to get into their conditioning sessions. A soft early sked allowed new starting QB Boeckman

to learn on the field. Boeckman’s confidence ebbed with the Penn St game where he hit 19-26 for 253

yds and 3 TD’s and Lee Corso started comparing the 6’5” Jr to Tom Brady. Boeckman struggled in the

L/2 however tossing 3 costly int’s in the loss to Illinois and being limited to two 2H passes after a shaky

1H in wet weather vs Mich. Tressel says that he throws the deep ball better than any Buck QB he’s had

which opens the field for RB Beanie Wells. Wells shook off knee, ankle and hand inj’s to lead the Big

Ten in rushing during conf play. WR’s Robiskie and Hartline both measure 6’3” and are perfect jump ball

targets. Broyles Award winner Heacock’s D led the NCAA in total, scoring, and pass eff D. The Big Ten’s

DL of the year was DE Gholston and its Defensive POY was Butkus winner Laurinaitis. OSU is #11 in our

pass eff D with Jenkins splitting time between CB & S. OSU’s ST’s were UnTressel-like ranking #41 and

finishing the season #117 in KR avg, all’g 2 KR TD’s while 3 Pretorius FG’s or xp’s were blocked.

LSU began the season strong with a 48-7 domination of #9 VT, but then the inj’s started to pile up with

top WR Doucet (missed 4) & QB Flynn both missing the MT gm. After beginning the ssn on a 3-0 ATS run,

the Tigers went 1-7-2 ATS the L/10 and somehow won the SEC Champ gm despite playing without QB

Flynn and Lombardi/Outland/Lott winner DT Dorsey who wasn’t 100% the rest of the year after a chop

block suffered in their last minute win over Aub. With Dorsey hobbled, they all’d 26 ppg & 305 ypg the L/5

while only all’g 15 ppg, 232 ypg in their 1st 8. Flynn threw 3 int vs Bama after taking a hit early in that gm,

and threw 2 the next wk vs LT. In all, LSU played 6 gms that were decided by 7 pts or less and ended up

losing two in 3 OT’s (both when ranked #1). The good news for LSU is that the time off should give all the

inj’d players enough time to heal for the bowl. Overall LSU has the offensive edge (#14-33), but OSU has

a slight defensive edge (#1-5). LSU’s normally strong ST’s finished #87 due to a subpar return gm, but

PK David set school single ssn & career records for FG’s & pts.

One major distraction for LSU TY was the status of their coaches with Miles agonizing over rumors

that he was leaving for his alma-mater Michigan and DC Pelini being hired as Nebraska’s new HC. Miles

agreed to stay at LSU & Pelini is expected to coach the bowl. OSU will be looking for redemption after

LY’s sluggish effort in the BCS Champ gm and the Bucks would love to quiet critics who say that the SEC

is vastly superior in the speed dept. Befitting this odd year, LSU is the first two loss team to make it to

the BCS title gm and despite being ranked #2 find themselves favored. The dog has won 5 out of the L/7

champ games. This will be won in the trenches so expect the Buckeyes defense and OL to come up big

and give OSU their second National Championship in the last 6 years.

FORECAST: OHIO ST (+) 23 LSU 20 RATING: 3★

 

However, Here is BLang's play, and his writeup is somewhat hilarious:

 

Brandon Lang

 

MONDAY

15 Dime OHIO STATE

 

NOTE: I live for moments like this. Flat out live for them.

 

Hitting championship games is what separates the men from the boys. It's exactly what has separated me from everybody else my entire career.

 

I really think 8 in a row speak for itself. I really do.

 

Even better, hit this game tonight and it's a 3rd straight winning week.

 

So as you can see, a lot on the line tonight.

 

If you are reading this right now then you obviously made a wise choice. I love the fact you have made me your go to guy with this championship game tonight.

 

I boast being the best big game handicapper in the world and tonight is another chance to show that world why.

 

I am as confident as I have ever been that my championship streak will hit #9 in a row tonight after Ohio St gets the cover.

 

So without further hesitation or delay, here is why Ohio St covers the number tonight in with my 9th straight Championship winner.

 

 

OHIO STATE - I have no problem going to war with the Ohio St Buckeyes tonight.

 

First and foremost, they have the #1 scoring defense as well as the #1 overall defense in all of College football.

 

A defense that went into Michigan and held the Wolverines to 3 points and 99 yards total offense for the entire game.

 

Yes people, the same Michigan team that put up 41 points and close to 600 yards total offense against SEC opponent the Florida Gators.

 

The first mistake people are making with this game is putting to much into the Buckeyes 0-8 run versus the SEC.

 

In those 8 battles, they never had the best defense in all of college football in which to go to war with.

 

The second mistake people are making is they are putting to much into Ohio States only mistake of the year in losing to Illinois at home.

 

Throw that game out in handicapping this game here because Lsu offensively isn't Illinois or for that matter Florida, the only other team to beat Ohio St in 2 years

 

Those two teams are a spread offense attack, something Lsu isn't. This Ohio St defense matches up very well with this Lsu offense as well as they have anybody all year.

 

The last mistake they are making is the fact this Lsu team isn't as good as the world is making them out to be.

 

I mean, this is an Lsu team that trailed in 6 of their games this year with less than 3 minutes to go.

 

Florida let them off the hook. Alabama let them off the hook. Auburn let them off the hook.

 

Arkansas went into Lsu and beat them, the same Arkansas team that was destroyed 38-7 in their bowl game by Missouri.

 

This is an Lsu team that shouldn't have won the SEC championship game versus Tennessee but a couple of bad throws by Ainge of the Vols gave Lsu the win.

 

A lot of people in the SEC felt the best team in that conference was the Georgia Bulldogs but by almost default, Lsu is here.

 

Lastly, this is an Lsu team that finished the year on a 1-7-2 ATS. You can call it bad lines or bad football but the fact of the matter is I just don't think this team is that good.

 

Another area in which the Buckeyes have a tremendous advantage is coaching. Tressel is twice the game coach as Les Miles.

 

With all this time to prepare and the fact Tressel is a dog, makes the Buckeyes that much more dangerous.

 

In my opinion, this game comes down to the matchup of the Ohio St running game versus the Lsu 13th ranked rush defense.

 

Wells is a monster for the Buckeyes and I fully expect him to have a solid game here tonight.

 

Ohio St was fantastic away from home this year crushing Washington by 19, Minnesota by 23, Purdue by 16, Penn St by 20 and the aforementioned Michigan by 11.

 

Check out that Penn St win. People, that was the 11th best defense in the country and the 7th best run defense and Ohio St rolled them.

 

Last year Ohio St was the favorite and they got caught with being over confident and not taking Florida seriously.

 

That is not going to happen tonight. They are the dog and a live dog at that.

 

Big ten Michigan beat SEC Florida. Big Ten Wisconsin held it's own against SEC Tennessee. Ohio St will own it's own against Lsu tonight and then some.

 

Defense wins championships people and it wouldn't surprise me if this Buckeyes team wins this game outright.

 

9th straight Championship Winner - Ohio St

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I had a play on the chargers -17.5 alt spread line +250. I was hoping they got a late break for a td. they would have probably had a shot if not for the personal foul on the int return. I wont be greedy though I am glad they covered. I hit both bets on the Giants game. Hit my big one -10 on SD but lost a first Q and Halftime bet on SD. On the whole it was a good week. I dont follow college much but I am sure Ill do a little interest bet..Ill keep you guys posted on any good hockey plays. I have done well lately. The other day I posted 4 plays here (2-1-1) Fin Rangers sucked in the shootout.

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Hope everyone did well yesterday. I didn't do anything on the NYG/TB game, sweated out a SD -9.5 cover.

 

Root is on OHST tonight.

 

 

3-1, winners with Sea, Pitt and NYG, dropped the SD over

 

for tonight- I am on LSU - 4 . I think a rested, healthy LSU takes out OSU by double digits.

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