Divisional Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[rattsass]

Awesome

Also have Blues -1.5 parlayed up with GB and Indy, we'll see if they can hold on and make that one interesting.. Thanks Whomp!

[Steeltown Dre]

Good job whomper and rat.

 

As for weather in GB:

 

Comparing my sources:

 

#1 shows a 32% chance of snow starting Thurs at 9pm into Fri at 6am. Temps in the 28-31 degree range, so should come down as snow. Should be done by noon at the latest, and Friday night temps in the 26-28 degree range w/ winds only 6 mph

 

#2 shows similar numbers, w/ mositure gone by 9am Fri morning, temps in the 32 degree range on Friday. This one projects into gametime, showing winds really will drop off by 9am Sat morning to 5 mph and remain around 6 mph for gametime, temps between 30-32 during the game, w/ no moisture.

 

#3 shows a slightly different picture, w/ same windspeed (only 6 mph) but temps colder, in the 23-24 degree range, and a 14% chance of moisture.

 

I think all in all it's looking very good, and I hope it stays that way.

[Trots]

Any thoughts on the NE/Jax game? The thought of laying 13 or so points to a tough Jax team scares me. New England seemed to stop covering ATS from Philly to the end of the season. I think Jax can handle the weather as evidenced in Pittsburgh and they should be able to run on NE if they're not immediately in a big hole.

[Steeltown Dre]

Any thoughts on the NE/Jax game? The thought of laying 13 or so points to a tough Jax team scares me. New England seemed to stop covering ATS from Philly to the end of the season. I think Jax can handle the weather as evidenced in Pittsburgh and they should be able to run on NE if they're not immediately in a big hole.

 

You are dead right Trots. NE finished the season after Thanksgiving going 1-5 ATS, w/ that lone victory over the Steelers when (for some reason) many pundits were loving the Steelers to take it to NE.

 

NE really tightened up on D. After Philly put up 28 on them and Bal put up 24, they allowed 13 to Pit, 10 to NYJ and 7 to Mia. They then finished w/ an all out battle and allowed 35 to NYG.

 

Early in the season this team showed it could beat anyone and it could do it by scoring points on offense and defense. Since Thanksgiving, this team has shown it can beat you playing any type of game, and withstood teams best shots in the process, arising victoriously, but not covering the insane spreads that averaged 18 points their final 6 games.

 

Now we've got them rested, laying 13.5 to Jac.

 

I said Monday before 9am EST that I had this game NE -13, but after a realization that my HFA was using last week's numbers, Monday afternoon I said it should be NE -13.5.

 

Well, the line opened at -11.5 and it's sitting at most places at either -13 or -13.5. You really have to get started early in the week putting in your play before the line shifts suck out what little value is still there. And right now, I'm not seeing much.

 

Ordinarily I would not play this game, due to the fact I see no true value in the line vs. my system, and the fact that NE has been burning people lately. Public is on Jac right now, but the line went up, showing that while less people may be betting on NE, more money has been bet on them.

 

Divisional round favs by -12 or more points since 92 have gone 5-2 ATS. Not so in the CC round, going only 2-2 ATS.

 

So this is the round for large favs to cover.

 

As for the total, the O 47.5 was my 2nd best rated play of the week. Unfortunately for those who didn't get in, it's now at 49.5 and because it was never a "top" play, there is a fair amount of value sucked out by that 2 point move.

 

This is a tough game to call.

 

I look at the 4 games that were close calls for the Pats. Ind, Phi, Bal, NYG.

 

Two of those teams (Phi and NYG) have very formidable rushing offenses, and average #2 and #3 in the league in ypr (Phi 4.7ypr, NYG 4.6ypr). However, in both games, the coaches decided instead of running the ball, we'll let our QBs play and we'll also throw a lot to the RB. Which is why Westbrook only had 17 carries for 52 yards and Jacobs only had 15 carries for 67 yards. But each was the leading receiver for their teams. And what you had is both QBs spreading the ball all over the field and playing their asses off. Feely went 27/42 for 345 yards and 3 TDs and Manning went 22/32 for 251 yards and 4 TDs.

 

The other two teams (Ind and Bal) don't have quite as good rusing offenses. Indy averages 3.8 ypr (22nd in league) and Bal averages 4.0 (15th in the league). Instead of turning to the QBs to put up points, here, both coaches turned to their below avg running games. Addai rushed 26 times for 112 yards and Manning only threw 16/27 for 225 yards and 1 TD. In Baltimore, McGahee rushed 30 times for 138 yards and 1 TD, and Boller went only 15/23 for 210 yards and 2 TDs. And Addai caught 5 of those passes for 114 yards. So to WRs, Manning threw for only 111 yards.

 

Also to note, the teams who ran the ball, not only did they complete only 15 or 16 passes, they were throwing to only 2 guys primarily. Indy had only 2 players w/ 3 or more receptions (Addai and Wayne had 5) and Bal also had only 2 players w/ 3 or more receptions (Mason 6 and McGahee 4).

 

The teams who threw the ball spread it all around: NYG had 5 players w/ 3 or more receptions and Phi also had 5 players w/ 3 or more receptions.

 

How does this relate to this Jac game:

 

Jac has as good a rushing game as NYG, and is 0.1 ypr behind Phi. Jac is tied for #3 in ypr and #2 rushing ypg. Now, in the games where NE faced teams who ran the ball well, those teams decided to let their QB throw it around to many WRs and pass it more to the RBs. Jac RBs are definitely up to the task, MJD in particular. I wonder if Jac will try to throw more than they typically do, like Phi and NYG did. If so, it puts a lot of weight onto a QB on the road making his playoff road debut.

 

Either way, I can't seem to get my hands all the way around this game. I'll keep working on it and let you know what I come up with.

[Steeltown Dre]

Some Divisional info courtesy of the Gold Sheet:

 

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NOTES AND HISTORY

By Bruce Marshall, Associate Editor

If we’ve said it once on these pages, we’ve said it a thousand times. No

football pointspread trend is ever etched in granite. And there was no better

example in NFL Division Playoff action than last season, when all four visiting

underdogs covered the number in second-round battles. That was definitely

a departure from past results that had usually seen home teams and favorites

(almost always one and the same in this round) hold the edge. At the same

time, it wasn’t unprecedented, as all four visiting dogs had also notched

pointspread wins in Division Round action three years earlier (2003).

 

Historically, however, Division Round results have trended toward the

home favorites. And in many years, their edge has been rather pronounced;

indeed, from 1998-2002, & ‘04, hosts were 16-7-1 vs. the number in Division

Round action. But, as we saw in 2003, and again last season, those trends

certainly haven’t been carrying over from year-to-year lately.

 

Still, there are some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this

round and have doubtless helped home teams achieve pointspread success

in the past. Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all

Division Round hosts are off a “bye” and a week of rest. And almost all of the

“powerhouse” NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round “bye”

group, including 47 of the last 58 Super Bowl participants since ’78 (when the

first-round “bye” was introduced). Like subsequent rounds, many of these

“power” teams have also contributed to numerous one-sided scorelines in

Division Round games, although all of the four contests a year ago were

decided by single-digit margins.

 

Following are the pointspread results in various spread

categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1976. Our

“charting” begins with the ’76 season because, prior to then, playoff home

teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better

won-loss record. A “margin of victory” chart for the games since 1976 is

included as well.

 

CATEGORY RESULT

 

Favorites vs. line ...................................... 64-56-3 (1 pick)

Favorites straight up ........................................ 88-35

Favored by 0-3 points ....................................... 7-12-1

Favored by 3½-6½ points ................................22-19-1

Favored by 7-9½ points .................................... 23-16

Favored by 10-13½ points...................................9-6

Favored by 14 points or more ......................... 3-3-1

Home teams straight up .................................. 90-34

Home teams vs. spread ................................. 66-55-3

Home favorites vs. spread ............................ 62-53-3

 

 

CATEGORY RESULT

 

Home underdogs vs. spread ......................... 3-2

Home picks vs. spread .................................... 1-0

Over/under (since 1986) ................................. 44-40

 

 

MARGINS OF VICTORY

 

1-3 points ......................................... 30

4-6 points .......................................... 9

7-10 points ....................................... 23

11-13 points ...................................... 6

14 points or more ......................... 56

[fairwarning]

It's a sucker play in this round (unless it wins and a 6 pointer would lose). I mean, I consider it a sucker bet, but there's always a chance you need those 3 extra points to win, so it could help short term, but playing them in the postseason as go to plays in the long run will lose you money. Here's why:

 

You have to know that the divisional round is unlike the regular season. In the regular season, you know that the favs win ATS at 49% and on average they win the game by 5.6 points.

 

In the divisional round, since 92, favs win ATS at 52.4% (the number you would break even at standard -110 juice) and on avg win the game by 10.6 points.

 

Now, for this analysis all we have to look at those games where the fav is favored by -7.5 or more, because that's the situation we are in w/ all 4 games. However, I'll look at this ignoring that fact and then applying it later:

 

64 games total in the sample, from 92-07. 4 games a season in the div round.

1. No tease, just taking the fav: 33-30-1 ATS (52.4%)

 

 

To break even on a -110 play, you have to hit 52.4%. Here we are 0% better, just breaking even

 

2. Teasing 6 points: 50-14 ATS (78%)

 

 

To break even on a 6 point teaser -110 juice you have to hit 72.4%. 78-72.4 is 5.6% better so we're making money

 

3. Teasing 6 points: 52-12 ATS (81%)

 

 

To break even on a 9 point -145 juice teaser you have to hit 77%. 81-77 is 4% better, making money, but not hitting as high as a 6 point teaser.

 

 

Favored by -7.5 or more, 26 games total in the sample, from 92-07

1. No tease, just taking the fav: 18-8 ATS (69.2%)

 

 

To break even on a -110 play, you have to hit 52.4%. Here we are 16.8% better, doing very well and making money

 

2. Teasing 6 points: 21-4-1 ATS (81%) - push counts as a loss

 

 

To break even on a 6 point teaser -110 juice you have to hit 72.4%. 81-72.4 is 8.6% better so we're making money, but not as much as taking these straight

 

3. Teasing 6 points: 22-4 ATS (84.6%)

 

 

To break even on a 9 point -145 juice teaser you have to hit 77%. 84.6-77 is 7.6% better, making money, but not hitting as high as straight or 6 point teasers.

 

 

The bottom line is though the sample is smaller, you have to look at these games separately from the regular season. And historically speaking, w/ the lines as they are, it's best to try to take straight bets on favs vs. teasing them down. If you want to tease, 6 point teasers will allow you to lose more and still make money than 9 point teasers.

 

But

 

Some people don't look at it like that, but I encourage you to do so. Out of the 26 games, only 1 game (a push at that) would have become a winner on a 9 point teaser that would not have won on a 6 point teaser. The numbers just are not there to support it. However, that's not saying it couldn't happen this weekend. But I would shop around if you can, and find another shop than Pinny if you want to tease your favs down.

 

If Pinny wanted your money on teasers, they would play the line straight, and not inflate them to +9. They obviously don't want your money on teasers. To me this says a couple things. #1, they think it's possible that a game ends on 3 and will force you to not win your teaser, so they like that. #2, they think we may have some games where several of the favs would cover teased numbers, and don't want to pay out those tickets, so they want you taking the money from other outlets.

 

If the lines were different, I'd encourage more teasers. For instance, in this round when the fav is favored by 7 or less, they have gone 15-22 ATS (41%).

 

But when the fav is teased by 6 points, they have gone 28-9 ATS (76%). Which is over the 72.4% to break even on a -110, 2 team teaser.

 

So lower lines this round really would pay off, and smaller favs do much worse than large favs.

 

A couple notes, as I said before, this is the only time we've seen 4 huge favs, so there is a chance that all 4 games are not going to wind up like the average, because usually it's 1 or maybe 2 a year that are high div favs.

 

Also, I really hate to give people advice that loses them money, so I don't want to scare you off of any bet you want to play based on historical numbers. If it was a specific side you liked and I felt strongly on the other side, that's a situation where I might want to scare you. But 1 weekend out of the year (div round) and 4 games to discuss, if one of these plays loses and "historically" it was the right play in terms of spread/win %, then I would feel bad if you lost on my account. Please play what you like, and hopefully come Monday we'll all be up.

 

 

 

As usual....great stuff DRE !

 

 

[xMRogers]

The fact "tease" is in the name should be enough. More importantly thought is that a teaser is a bad odds bet that rewards being "close to right" in a skill (handicapping) that by nature is dead f'n wrong about 25% of the time. I'm decent at this - not great by any means cause I don't spend enough time on it - and average about 55% of my sides right over the years (I tell my wife I gamble for th emoney, but after 10 years and and down about .03% of $150k total wagered, it's for the entertainment). of the 45%, I'd roughly say I'm close on maybe half....meaning about 20-25% of games i'm so far off it's laughable.

 

If I bet straight - I win or lose and close doesn't matter

 

If I parlay - I lose, but on a good streak the odds play well in my favor and close doesn't matter

 

On a teaser - i gotta give odds and I know every game I through in is at least a quarter of the time a loser. By definition, I'm going to get HAMMERED here, and that's in a good year.

 

I'd rather go with the parlay.

 

This week is a perfect example - in theory, any of the favs on a 3 teams, 9 pt parlay shold be good....in reality, we know one will screw the teasers if not 2...

[whomper]

Thursday night Hockey

 

Vancouver/ San Jose first period under 1.5. They are 2 of the stingiest teams in the NHL. Expect High vig but I feel strong about this one. The O/U for the game will rpobably be 5 and the under on that is pretty solid but the one I am suggesting is first period under 1.5.

[whomper]

Thursday night Hockey

 

Vancouver/ San Jose first period under 1.5. They are 2 of the stingiest teams in the NHL. Expect High vig but I feel strong about this one. The O/U for the game will rpobably be 5 and the under on that is pretty solid but the one I am suggesting is first period under 1.5.

 

 

Looking at the full board tonight I dont want to get dumb and over excited but some things are jumping out at me a little bit here and I am going to lay them out for anyone interested and let you guys decide if you want to play them

 

Top Pick- as Mentioned Vancouver/ San Jose under 1.5 first period very low goals against for both teams

 

Top Pick A- Maple Leafs/ L.A over 1.5 2nd period. The vig will be very high but its as close to a lock as I can offer

 

Great play- Leafs / LA over 6 for the game - its the 2 most goals against in the NHL facing off here and Toronto just got blanked last night

 

Good play- Dallas/ St Louis under 1.5 first period

 

Good play- Edmonton Pheonix under 1.5 first period

[Steeltown Dre]

I made a position on 1 total last night and am weighing my options on another.

 

Last night I put in Ind/SD Under 48 -135 (bought 1.5 points). The total was at 46.5 on -110 juice when I made this play. Buying this pushes me past 47 and onto 48.

 

I typically do an exercise when contemplating buying points. Basically I use a couple of different filters to determine the avg final scores of games w/ totals near to the one I am playing. In this case I took averages of games w/ totals between (and including) 45 and 49 and then a slightly larger one that went to 52.

 

I then am able to determine on average the number of times a particular final score (total points) is hit. I also know by the juice on the regular wager and the line I could buy to how much % it will cost me, and am able to determine if buying to a particular number is worth the juice. It sounds complicated, but it's not too hard.

 

So for instance, there were a number of shops and some had the total anywhere from 45 to 46.5 for relatively the same juice. 47 happens to get hit an awful lot - 4%. The difference in win % to break even on -110 juice is 52.4%. If you want to improve your win % by an additional 4%, you would want to have 47.5 instead of 46.5. So that bumps your win % up to 56.3%. Of course, your juice will go up also. Doing the math, if you can get 47.5 for anything less than -129, it makes sense to do so.

 

48 gets hit an additional 2.7% of the time. If you can get 48 for anything less than -144, I would do so. This, of course, is based on the fact that you've got 46.5 at -110. If you have it at -115 like it is at Bodog right now, you can afford to pay a little bit more in juice.

 

But, buying to 48.5 would have made my juice go up to -145 which is over the -144 and so is not as good as U48-135. I'll take a push on 48 if needed.

 

As for my analysis on this play, I think that if Ind can jump out to the lead they will be able to bleed the clock quite nicely. Manning takes a long time under center calling out formations, so my hope is that Indy has the lead for much of the game and is taking their time in the 2nd half. The only question mark I have is the SD special teams, which can get great field position and put up points. But I'm betting against that happening.

 

Here, the total opened at 49 and was quickly bet down to anywhere from 45 to 46.5.

 

In the divisional round w/ totals between (and including) 45 to 48, the Under is 8-2 Since 1992.

 

So, I've got U48 -135.

 

Did I lose value by not getting this immediately when the line opened? You're damn right - I see Pinny was the earliest at 49 -105 which lasted for hardly any time, but you could get 48 -110 for about 15 minutes when it opened at a couple spots Sun night. However, for most of us, this number was down to 47 very quickly before we could make a position on it, and fell since then.

 

My third total I'm looking at and liking is the over in the Jac/NE game.

 

This line opened at 48.5 and is around 49 to 50.

 

Ignoring Super Bowls, when there is a total of between (and including) 48.5 and 50, the Over has gone 5-1. In the Divisional Round only, the Over has gone 3-0 in those situations.

Here is another place I am contemplating buying points. 47 is a very key number in games w/ totals around where we are seeing it. I ran a slightly different analysis for this game as the line is higher, and am seeing that 47 hits roughly 6.2% of the time.

 

By my math, I can get 49 at -110. Which means if I can get 47 at anything better than -161, it is a good play and is EV to having 49 at -110. So I'm targeting that right now and will let you know how it goes.

 

As for analysis, I think both teams are capable of producing some quick scores. And I'm seeing as good weather conditions as you could hope for. I think teams can break some runs on the Pats so the run game won't just eat up 2-3 ypc and plod down the field. I like having 47 here and will hope I can make the play if the juice is right.

 

Any thoughts on these two totals?

 

That would make my biggest play on GB O 39.5 (line continues to move up and is now 42 some places, 42.5 most outlets, and even 43 at one spot)

My 2nd largest on Ind/SD U 48

And I'm trying to get in on the NE/Jac O 47

 

If you guys have any questions on buying points, feel free to ask, and I would encourage it. What I need to know is what you are getting as a starting point, and I can then tell you if you are getting good or bad value (in juice) by moving past or onto certain numbers.

 

Of course, the same argument is there every time. If you have O 47 -160 or O 49 -110, it won't really matter if you got good value on it or not if you really needed O 45 because the game landed on 46. And that's true, if all you care about is this weekend's wins and losses. But if that were the case, you could buy down to 43 and pay -250 to do so. That's not smart and it will lose you money in the long run.

 

Advice/ramble:

 

Wins and losses are a part of the game, and it feels great to go 5-1 in my picks for Wildcard weekend. But if I went 5-1 by taking all the favs on MLs juiced to hell, how much am I making? Not much if anything. The key is to hit at a good win percent, but make intelligent plays while doing so, and buying points and paying higher than standard juice only in certain situations if the juice is right or the play is right.

 

Hell, I'll be glad to go 1-2 this weekend if I'm playing the GB over for 5 times more than my other 2 bets combined and it wins. The goal is to be up money at the end of the day, week, month, season, year. Not to hit 60%. The way I play during the year, I rarely buy and so I try to hit at a high % because I'm betting relatively standard amounts per week and relatively the same juice. So you need to hit well there. I try to be disciplined. But I do bet more in certain spots.

 

Playoffs are no different, and just because it may be a "big game" does not mean you should treat it any different in terms of wager size than you normally would. For me, during the year I have so many different levels of plays that I'm making maybe 2-4 "personal plays" and then following my systems which produce any number of plays, probably around 10-14 on average, sides/totals combined. When you think that there 14 games/weekend on avg, and each has side/total, that's about 28 plays just on sides/totals, and sometimes I'm playing about half of them. It all depends, sometimes much much less. And my plays on them are for set amounts though it can vary. The point is, I roll all of that $ I spend per week during the regular season over and spend about the same per week in the playoffs. But it allows me to make larger plays since there are only 4 games. But I'm not over extending myself any more than I would during the regular season, so a losing week in the playoffs is the same as a losing week in the regular season, and that's how I recommend treating it.

Edited January 10, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Another long post I started working on this morning. Sorry they are so long this week - guess I've spent more time posting than usual because I have it to spend. Hopefully it will encourage some good discussion, I want to hear some opinions from you guys on the games this weekend. Sides/totals, whatever.

 

Some Thursday morning thoughs/insights (started this Thurs morning at least):

 

The drama squad (a.k.a ESPN) is heavily involved in forecasting that NE and Dal is in trouble. Why? To garner ratings and get more viewers. The same way they dominated the airwaves w/ the Pats in the regular season crushing all who get in their way. And we know how that turned out. Everyone jumped on the NE betting bandwagon, and we saw the spreads jump to ridiculous numbers, and we saw them go 0-5 ATS to against all the teams they "should handle". The one team ESPN pumped up to sell was Pit, and everyone jumped on Pit, and NE covered that game.

 

That means since Thanksgiving, the public has been wrong on NE, and I can honestly tell you a lot of the public betting is contrived from public perception brodcast on ESPN. They hype up everything and try to start controversy to get people to tune in. Last year do you remember what they said before the Colts WC matchup vs. KC? ESPN was ALL OVER the fact that the Colts could not stop the run, and that KC would not only cover but win SU. I wrote a long analysis for that game and posted it here about how I was loving the Colts and fading ESPN/media. Colts won 23-8, covering the -6.5 spread by well over a TD.

 

Now we turn to ESPN and what is plastered all over the airwaves and on the front page of both ESPN.com and their NFL section?

 

http://bp3.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/R4YkvV...eeds%2BLose.bmp

 

Trouble Ahead for the top seeds, our writers warn both No 1s will lose...

 

Look at the betting percentages as they stand:

 

32K bets placed: 61% bet Jac on the spread, 86% of ML took Jac

29K bets placed: 69% bet NYG on the spread, 97% of ML took NYG

 

Here's what happens. Public is heavily, heavily swayed by "what have you shown me lately". NYG just went in to Jac as a 3 point dog w/ a "shaky" Eli and romped to a win w/ a strong running game. Jac just went back to Pittsburgh in the playoffs and jumped to a early lead and then scored the winning FG at the end of the 4th. Both looked strong, and Jac has looked strong for a while now. Speaking of which, these are 2 of the hottest teams left in the playoffs.

 

Jac covered their last 7 games straight in the regular season (ignoring week 17 when they played backups). Then they went on the road in the postseason and got a win.

NYG covered 4 of their last 5 regular season games, including the Week 17 matchup w/ NE where NE had to win and NYG (playoff seeding wise) could care less. Then they too went on the road in the first round and got a win and a cover.

 

Add to that company the Chargers, who covered in 6 straight to end the regular season, and then covered and beat Ten.

 

The 3 hottest teams spread wise are large dogs this weekend. And the public loves them. The other two games, here are the percentages:

 

36K bets placed: 64% Sea on the spread, 92% of the ML took Sea

29K bets placed: 57% Ind on the spread, 78% of the ML took SD

 

If you travel around the dial or the websites, I can't count the number of people/pundits/bettors who are so in love w/ NYG. Many also adore Sea and Jac. They talk about betting all the dogs, they talk about taking several ML, they talk about such huge lines.

 

I don't know if these guys are looking at the same historical numbers as I am - chances are, they aren't looking at them at all. They maybe remember last year that all 4 dogs covered.

 

Maybe they know that although (in the div round)there have been only 4 years where dogs won 2 of the 4 games SU in the 16 years since 92 playoffs, that in the last 4 years, dogs have won SU at least 2 games in 3 of the 4 years. And in the last 4 years, dogs have gone 4-0 ATS twice. And that in the last 4 years, dogs have gone 11-5 ATS.

 

Then, they look at these lines.

 

8

13.5

9

7.5

 

An avg of 9.5 almost 10.

 

Then they look at historical numbers, but only through the last 4 years, and see that last year lines averaged 5.5, the year before 5.75, the year before 6.13, and the year before 5.

 

Then maybe they look at those games where the lines a TD or higher, and see that the dog has been 4-2 ATS recently in those games.

 

And you know, all of those are good arguments for dogs this weekend.

 

The flip side is that these "dog lovers" in the divisional round don't want to look more than 4 years back, or they will see that dogs who got a TD or more from 1998 thru 2003 went 0-11 ATS.

 

So the question is, do we stick to recent form from the past 4 years, or do we get back in line w/ the 16 year avg when we have seen Favs of a TD or more covering at better than a 2:1 clip?

 

I would be astonished if dogs went 4-0 ATS this week. I think it's stretching it to suggest that 3 of them cover. But anything can happen. Where do you lean on the games this weekend?

Edited January 10, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[rattsass]

I would be astonished if dogs went 4-0 ATS this week. I think it's stretching it to suggest that 3 of them cover. But anything can happen. Where do you lean on the games this weekend?

I am with you on that thinking. All season long we had the big 4 (all of the home teams this weekend) seen as vastly superior to everyone else. And then the divisional round comes and you are now hearing plenty of buzz about the underdogs. I'm not buying it. We could very well see 4 blowouts.

[xMRogers]

Before the playoffs, I said the 4 div games woudl be blowouts for a few reasons.

 

1) It's very rare that after 5 games, you said "hmm, there's two great teams in each conf"....and at the end of the year, that still held true. What this tells me is even with everyone gunnign at these 4, they maintained their perch throughout...and three of them you can back that up to week 1 or 2 (GB it took folks some time to come around).

 

2) Combine a week off and homefield is a good recipe for success - other team had to play last week and has to travel.

 

Now, in saying that, I'd be surprised if all 4 covered for no other reason than that's rare....

[wildcat2334]

good read Dre - my thinking on the 4 games, well take Sea out bc I am a blind homer and will just be playing Sea lightly...............

 

in order of preference

 

 

IND - love em- let everyone hop on the SD wagon- no Gates = major problems

NYG - especially if TO is limited, or out. I think they are on a nice roll, will pressure Romo, and it will be a tight contest

NE - I think Jax will move the ball effectively- just don't see Jax stopping NE at all.

[whomper]

I am starting to really like over 42.5 in GB/Sea

[rattsass]

I am not playing the Jax game vs. the spread, but have made a parlay bet with that +550 Jax moneyline. Just in case my dreams come true, I want to cash in when it happens.

[Lucky11]

thanks again Dre (and everyone else) for the great insight. while i'm down a tiny bit overall for the season, i've actually learned a ton from reading your posts and done much better than years past.

 

for this weekend i'm thinking the favorites will go 2-2 ATS. i like:

 

GB (and the over)

IND (and probably the over, still thinking about it)

JAX

NYG (though i really don't like this much at all, and won't make a play unless i'm up from the other action)

 

The Packers seem like a lock. They're off the bye, and the emergence of Grant has really allowed Favre to play like he's hooked on Vicodin again. If the Seahawks actually had a running game, I'd give them more of a shot...but they don't.

 

With Gates out, SD is really in trouble. The D/ST could keep 'em in the game if they get rolling early and Peyton makes a mistake or two - but I don't think he will. Rivers seems to come up with a "dud" game when SD needs him the most, and I think this is the one. Plus, if you look at the coaches: Dungy > Turner.

 

JAX is on fire right now, and are playing what I'd call "fearlessly." NE should win this one, but b/c the Jags have a very strong running game, I think they'll be able to control some clock and keep it closer than the 13 points they're getting.

 

Good luck to everyone.

[whomper]

Thursday night Hockey

 

Vancouver/ San Jose first period under 1.5. They are 2 of the stingiest teams in the NHL. Expect High vig but I feel strong about this one. The O/U for the game will rpobably be 5 and the under on that is pretty solid but the one I am suggesting is first period under 1.5.

 

 

First period and game stayed under

 

Looking at the full board tonight I dont want to get dumb and over excited but some things are jumping out at me a little bit here and I am going to lay them out for anyone interested and let you guys decide if you want to play them

 

Top Pick- as Mentioned Vancouver/ San Jose under 1.5 first period very low goals against for both teams

 

Top Pick A- Maple Leafs/ L.A over 1.5 2nd period. The vig will be very high but its as close to a lock as I can offer

 

Great play- Leafs / LA over 6 for the game - its the 2 most goals against in the NHL facing off here and Toronto just got blanked last night

 

Good play- Dallas/ St Louis under 1.5 first period

 

Good play- Edmonton Pheonix under 1.5 first period

 

 

 

Over all a pretty good night 3-0 top pick/ great play...0-2 good play 1-0 lean (van/SJ Game under 5) I hope some of you were on the winners

[Steeltown Dre]

I am starting to really like over 42.5 in GB/Sea

 

Congrats on your hockey last night - well done.

 

As for the GB total - This line continues to move upwards. I'm seeing 42.5 is still out there, but 43s at most places and some 43.5s.

 

Weather is looking phenominal. My various sources show gametime winds of only 3 mph, with about a 5-10% chance of rain and temps around 32. This is almost as good as it gets in GB for January. The only way it could be better was if it was sunny, but cloudy will do just fine.

 

I think this forecast throughout the week has had a major affect on the line. It opened at 40.5 and the forecast was looking somewhat questionable - I started tracking it on here Monday AM. This forecast 1 day before gameday is the best it's looked since Monday, and it's only a day away.

 

My question to you, if you have not already played this total, is can you buy points, and if so, what is the juice at 42.5 and what is the juice to buy to various numbers such as 42 or 41?

[whomper]

Congrats on your hockey last night - well done.

 

As for the GB total - This line continues to move upwards. I'm seeing 42.5 is still out there, but 43s at most places and some 43.5s.

 

Weather is looking phenominal. My various sources show gametime winds of only 3 mph, with about a 5-10% chance of rain and temps around 32. This is almost as good as it gets in GB for January. The only way it could be better was if it was sunny, but cloudy will do just fine.

 

I think this forecast throughout the week has had a major affect on the line. It opened at 40.5 and the forecast was looking somewhat questionable - I started tracking it on here Monday AM. This forecast 1 day before gameday is the best it's looked since Monday, and it's only a day away.

 

My question to you, if you have not already played this total, is can you buy points, and if so, what is the juice at 42.5 and what is the juice to buy to various numbers such as 42 or 41?

 

 

My office doesnt let you buy points. Its still 42.5. I just put that in (over) its -110

[rattsass]

First period and game stayed under

Over all a pretty good night 3-0 top pick/ great play...0-2 good play 1-0 lean (van/SJ Game under 5) I hope some of you were on the winners

I hit on the Blues -1.5 again , parlayed up with NFL games for the weekend. Also used that LA/Tor Over you suggested on one play. Now I am set up wiith a nice weekend card on the cheap. Thanks again Whomp!

 

I love it when a plan comes together.

[whomper]

I hit on the Blues -1.5 again , parlayed up with NFL games for the weekend. Also used that LA/Tor Over you suggested on one play. Now I am set up wiith a nice weekend card on the cheap. Thanks again Whomp!

 

I love it when a plan comes together.

 

 

Anytime bro. This hockey has been great . I love the first period unders because its short and sweet. 2 stingy teams facing off with good goalies have stayed under 1.5 more often then they havent. St Louis is as stingy as they come. Detroit is really the hardest to score against but I stay away from them in the first period because they are explosive on O. I already have 2 I like for tonight. Ill post them soon. I just want to run some numbers. 2nd period overs between high offense teams are almost unfair they come in so often. Problem is and reason I stay away is the vigs are extremely high. Sometimes as high as -250. You are gonna bet those small in fear of vig and the one you lose will wipe out the 2-3 you win

[rattsass]

Anytime bro. This hockey has been great . I love the first period unders because its short and sweet. 2 stingy teams facing off with good goalies have stayed under 1.5 more often then they havent. St Louis is as stingy as they come. Detroit is really the hardest to score against but I stay away from them in the first period because they are explosive on O. I already have 2 I like for tonight. Ill post them soon. I just want to run some numbers. 2nd period overs between high offense teams are almost unfair they come in so often. Problem is and reason I stay away is the vigs are extremely high. Sometimes as high as -250. You are gonna bet those small in fear of vig and the one you lose will wipe out the 2-3 you win

On that Blues game last night I avoided that first period under play you mentioned because the Blues offense kicked into high gear Tuesday night and I suspected it might carry over with a Dallas team that arrived in STL past 1 AM the night before after playing in Chicago. With their #2 Goalie in net. Those are also the reasons I played the Blues -1.5 (+200) again.

 

I don't bet hockey much, but that was a situation that was just screaming out to me so I played it.

[whomper]

On that Blues game last night I avoided that first period under play you mentioned because the Blues offense kicked into high gear Tuesday night and I suspected it might carry over with a Dallas team that arrived in STL past 1 AM the night before after playing in Chicago. With their #2 Goalie in net. Those are also the reasons I played the Blues -1.5 (+200) again.

 

I don't bet hockey much, but that was a situation that was just screaming out to me so I played it.

 

 

yep. That was a small play recommendation because the blues while tough to score against can light it up sometimes. I went to the site I use and used to just dabble in hockey. I didnt even know what 1p meant under the hockey section and just decided to click it one day. Now I go straight for it. I also like to play the full board sometimes. If there are 10 games at the bottom it will say total O/U for all 10 games and its usually 58.5 or in that neighborhood. If I see a bunch of high scorers going at it Ill throw in the over.

[Randall]

Congrats on your hockey last night - well done.

 

As for the GB total - This line continues to move upwards. I'm seeing 42.5 is still out there, but 43s at most places and some 43.5s.

 

Weather is looking phenominal. My various sources show gametime winds of only 3 mph, with about a 5-10% chance of rain and temps around 32. This is almost as good as it gets in GB for January. The only way it could be better was if it was sunny, but cloudy will do just fine.

 

 

Some minor flurries coming down now. Very light no wind. Should be good game weather.