Conference Championship Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

My time right now is extrememly limited so I wanted to get this up there as early as I can, but it will come w/o much analysis for now, hopefully you guys can chime in on your initial leans. I'll update my personal record later to keep track of it.

 

Ran my system and here's what I've got, and I'll list only 1 set of numbers (I have a few from various systems)

 

SD/NE: Open: NE -15.5, Current: -14.5, My Line: -13.0,

O/U: Open: 51, Current: 49, My Line: 51.7

 

NYG/GB: Open: GB -7, Current: GB -7, My Line: GB -7.3

O/U: Open: 43.5, Current: 42, My Line: 46.7

 

Once again, lines very tight. Normally there would be no system plays ATS from me, and I would have a small play on both the overs.

 

However, my #1 overs system which is now 20-1 on the season would generate a play if the GB line slipped to 41.5.

 

I will be honest due to the lack of time right now, I have no idea what GB will be like on Sun night, and I'm guessing it might not be nice. But, we'll have to see what I do once I get some forecasts.

 

Same can be said for NE, but at this time, it would have to take a drastic move for the #1 system to generate a play.

 

So there you go, I haven't done anything myself this week as of now. Just getting this thread here and posting my numbers for you to see and comment on.

[Steeltown Dre]

Finally getting a chance to check the weather report. Much may change, but here it is from two of the better long term forecasts:

 

NE/SD @ 3pm -

Source 1 - Temps 15 F, Wind 14 mph, Sunny, Snow 13% (no precip in forecast)

Source 2 - Temps 10 F, Wind 24 mph, Sunny, no precip

 

NYG/GB @ 6:30pm -

Source 1 - Temps 6 F, Wind 1 mph, Partly Cloudy, Snow 9% (no precip in forecast)

Source 2 - Temps 14 F, Wind 14 mph, Cloudy, no precip

 

These are some cold temps and there is much to be said about the winds developing.

 

As we saw w/ the GB game, and Randall was right on this one, weather was looking good the night before and morning of the game and even at the kick it wasn't too bad. But a lot of snow came down, more than I expected. So there really is no telling what could happen up in GB.

 

The percentages as I'm seeing them now:

 

Details 1/20

303 San Diego Chargers 64%

304 New England Patriots 36%

Over 64%

Under 36%

 

Details 1/20

305 New York Giants 41%

306 Green Bay Packers 59%

Over 67%

Under 33%

 

Still very early to really tell, but reading these early positions, it tells me we've got some heavy hitters who put in for Unders in both contests, while the majority of bets like overs, the volume of $ moved the line down in the last 20 hrs.

 

We've got the NE total now at 47.5, which is 1.5 points lower than 4 hrs ago.

We've got the GB total now at 42 but I am seeing 41.5 out there, which is about the same as earlier but looks like this one should hit 41.5 in not too long.

 

My initial analysis based on historical numbers through 92:

 

Favs in this round have gone 17-15 ATS, w/ 11 of the 15 dog covers being ML wins

Last 4 years, Favs have gone 6-2 ATS, w/ the dog covers being ML wins

Avg line since 92 = 7 points

Avg line L4 = 4 points

 

19 Overs, 12 Unders, 1 push

Last 4 years, 5 overs, 2 unders, 1 push

Avg total since 92 = 42.5 points

Avg total L4 = 41

 

Totals of 47 or higher: 6 overs, 1 under

Location of the overs: Dallas (2), Ind, Min, StL, SF = 6 domed stadiums

Location of the under: Denver

 

Totals between 40 and 43: 5 overs, 4 unders

Location of the overs: Chi, Den, Sea, Pit, Was

Location of the unders: NE, NY, Pit, Mia

 

Interesting stat about NE that I didn't know last weekend or I may have been swayed:

 

Since 92, NE has played 8 postseason games at home (not including last week).

All 8 have gone under the posted total, which was an avg of 40 ignoring the total vs Ind in 05 which was 51

That was until last weekend when the weather was great and the game went over.

So 8-1 since 92...

 

Back later w/ more...

[xMRogers]

Right now, like Green Bay giving the TD, San Diego plus 2 TDs (with a caveat of injury report although appears Gates is more impt than either Rivers or LT )

 

The green bay total I may stay away from as I really think that game will be a 30-10 type of game, but wouldn't take the under regardless.

 

Depending on health, I may go over in NE game cause right now, NE defense can't stop ANYONE. They may go down as the greatest team in history, and it's rightfully so, but their defense has really taken a step down since midseason...

[rattsass]

After watching my weeks worth of work go down the tubes with the Indy loss, it has come to my attention that I don't know Athenae. I'm not diciplined enough to follow systems like Dre. And if San Diego can beat the Colts given the enormous odds they faced, I just have to shake my head and walk away. I didn't hedge. not a penny. I was so sure Indy would win there was no way in hell I was going to give the man a penny of it. A rare moment of courage that bit me square in the ass. I got some serious bad mojo going. It was fun guys, I hope you stick 'em hard.

Edited January 14, 2008 by rattsass

[whomper]

After watching my weeks worth of work go down the tubes with the Indy loss, it has come to my attention that I don't know Athenae. I'm not diciplined enough to follow systems like Dre. And if San Diego can beat the Colts given the enormous odds they faced, I just have to shake my head and walk away. I didn't hedge. not a penny. I was so sure Indy would win there was no way in hell I was going to give the man a penny of it. A rare moment of courage that bit me square in the ass. I got some serious bad mojo going. It was fun guys, I hope you stick 'em hard.

 

 

I am sort of feeling this way too. I gave a fat week back on sunday and was very careless. Hockey gaveth and hockey tooketh away..I dont know why I cant sit on cash and enjoy the game sunday instead of going for the slaughter..I did it two of the past 3 weeks..

[Steeltown Dre]

There are only 3 games left, and the lines are really tight. I don't blame you for easing out now. I hope even if you guys are down on putting your money on any more plays this year, you'll still provide your insights the next couple of weeks. If you left more on the table that you wanted to and were influenced because I let things ride on Ind, I apologize. I was one of many who had Ind to win and I clearly thought that they would. For me, it was one of my smaller plays, and my teasers that needed them were medium.

 

Money management is key, so that one bad day or one bad weekend won't put you out of the game. I had a losing Sunday, but am still up big in the playoffs. Thats because I've had 3 winning days and 1 losing in the playoffs, and my huge over plays (1 in the WC, 1 in the Div) both won.

 

I know this isn't the right time, and I don't follow this to a "T", especially on "personal plays", and especially in the playoffs. But, here is a good article on money management by Ethan Law:

 

 

In football wagering we have to lay 110 to win 100 and the key to winning is having extremely sound money management. Here is what I recommend if you actually want to make an "investment" in sports betting.  1) Define your bankroll before the season starts.  2) Bet a set percentage of your bankroll on each base play you make.  3) Bump your play up only slightly, 1 or 2%, when you feel you have a game you are particularly confident about. This type of money management is not "sexy" in that you will not double your money overnight, but it is a realistic way of setting some reasonable expectations. We know going into this that I am not going to come close to winning 100% of my plays every season. Neither will I make a recklessly large play (over 8% of bankroll) on any given game to catch up or play a sure-thing. Quite simple, our goal in this venture is to hit a simple majority over the long haul (along the lines of 56-63% winners). With that being said...I will ONLY place between 3-5 percent of my bankroll on any given wager.  Here is the exact percentages I bet on each selection I release to you guys this season.5* = 6%3* = 5%2* = 4%1* = 3%For example: Whether our bankroll is $1,000 or $10,000 dollars you would place 3% of your overall bankroll ($30 for a 1K bankroll, $300 for a 10K bankroll) on each and every play you make, and bump it up in (VERY LIMITED INSTANCES). Using that system, with a $10,000 bankroll making 200 plays during the season, and hitting 58% winners, one would finish the season by nearly doubling his stake, being ahead +9,440 units which is a 94% return in about 5 months which is more then one would expect in just about any other investment opportunity. Again, I think betting games (and managing your money) on a unit by unit basis is amateur as it will never account for the losing streak that everybody doing this professionally or recreationally will inevitably suffer. My point, using this method give us a large margin for error and minimizes any potential catastrophic loses that could occur on a bad weekend (which I and everybody else is going to have)!!!!!.  I see to many people wagering 100% of their bank roll each and every weekend, which again will give that better absolutely no margin for error. As stated above, being a "professional" handicapper I have to keep track of my plays in units (thats the traditional method) but my clients who use a similar money management system have actually won A LOT more money then my net units won at the end of each and every season. Likewise, although it has not happened (knock o wood) "if" I were to ever have a losing season, my clients would be down significantly less then the typical "unit" lose would show, since the amount we bet decreases when we lose.

 

 

I only post this because I dont' think that one bad day should wipe anyone out, and I feel bad to see "the man" get the best of you because of one weekend. Now, if this has been going on for a few weeks and you want to walk away w/ what profits you have, now is a good time to do it. We've got 3 games left and they will be tight games, where all 4 teams are decent and anything can happen. This type of betting (postseason) is different from regular season betting, and takes more luck and more research to win.

 

At any rate, I hope if you do hang it up for the season, you still give us your input "as if" you were putting money on the line, and comment on the plays we're contemplating. Good luck guys.

[Steeltown Dre]

Real quick guys cause time is short right now.

 

The numbers as they are scream overs to me based upon my systems. But weather is screaming unders.

 

I'm going for the ultimate opportunity here.

 

Yesterday I got in on both unders. First let's talk NE/SD

 

I took U 48.5

 

I am currently seeing 47 -110 and a couple 47.5 -110. If you can buy off the 47, I strongly encourage you to do so. 47 is worth 5% (that's how much it hits), so if you can get U 47.5 for better than -134 (you easily should be able to do this), then do it. The 48 is worth another 3%, so if you can get U 48 or U 48.5 for better than -151, I advise to do it.

 

Now, don't spend too much on juice, because what I am advising is this:

 

From Mon evening to Tues evening the line fell as much as 2 full points. I expect this line to drop even more. The weather is looking pretty bad.

 

Source 1 now shows 16 deg F, winds 21 mph, and 20% chance of snow.

Source 2 shows 24 deg F, winds 26 mph, and there should be slight snow during the start of the game

 

I do think this game, played in normal weather, will go over. But I can always buy back later in the week if the weather improves. Again, I like the over sans weather. But with this weather, I got in early on the under, and will contemplate a buy back shooting for a middle sometime later in the weekend.

 

As for GB/NYG:

 

W/ the line now at 40.5, my system says play the over. I faded it for the time being. I took U 42 yesterday. But the 42 is only worth 1.3%. The 41 is the more important number to get above - that one hits 3.5%, so if you can get above 41 for better than -127, it's a decent play.

 

As for the weather,

 

Source 1 shows 3 deg F, winds 7 mph, 10% chance of snow

Source 2 shows 0 deg F, winds 17 mph, no snow

 

Again, this one is another one where the more weather is reported today, tomorrow, Friday and Saturday, the more this line will fall. I'm got in on the unders and will possibly come back with overs.

 

I really hate fading my system when it likes the over, but I'm not fully "fading" it. I have put X amounts on both unders. I can now let the line move in my favor (hopefully it moves another few points) and then come back with some over plays. On those plays, I can do X + Y, or X - Y. Meaning if the weather still looks bad and I think an under is likely, I can play X - Y on the over, meaning putting less than my initial play on an over of hopefully 4 points less than what my under play is. But if the weather is looking like an over is possible, I can do X + Y. In both cases, middles are out there.

 

And if middles don't hit, then my true bet on the game would be "Y", as my "X" bets would cancel out. I know I'm not the only guy who is doing the same thing...

[Randall]

As I said in the weather thread they have been predicting frigid weather since monday but now are saying it'll be here thursday night. It's been in the 20's which is the normal high.

 

Cold weather is west of us, but it may stay there longer. Who knows?

[Steeltown Dre]

As I said in the weather thread they have been predicting frigid weather since monday but now are saying it'll be here thursday night. It's been in the 20's which is the normal high.

 

Cold weather is west of us, but it may stay there longer. Who knows?

 

How windy is it there right now? From one site I'm seeing about 13mph there right now. I'm seeing it should reach 33 mph on Thurs over night, very strong. But that after that front passes, it will clear out some air that returns to 13 mph for only a few hrs on Friday, and then Friday night thru Sunday night winds are over 20 mph. It is showing that drops into the upper teens by gametime, but that the temps starting Sat into Sunday thru Sunday night don't get into double digits. Is that what you are hearing up there?

[Steeltown Dre]

This is for those who had a tough week last week:

 

DIRECT FROM VEGAS

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

 

MANY SHARPS LICKING THEIR WOUNDS AFTER NFL UPSETS

 

Normally when you hear there have been some upsets in any sport, you can draw a firm conclusion that professional wagerers in Las Vegas just made a killing, while the general public just lost big.

 

You regular readers know that by now. It's almost a universal truth in all sports. Last weekend in the NFL playoffs, something amazing happened. Many professional wagerers suffered their worst weekends of the entire year. For some, it was the worst in a few years.

 

What happened?

 

It was a harmonic convergence of a few factors really. I'll outline the keys, then explain in more depth.

 

THE KEYS TO THE CRASH

 

The sharps know that bye teams have historically fared well, particularly in terms of straight up victories since the current format was instituted back in 1990.

 

 

The sharps know that using two-team teasers that cross both the 7 and the 3 have a winning history in football

 

 

Seeing that in combination was just too good to resist!

By now you know that the Dallas Cowboys were the first NFC #1 seed to lose outright in this new format. They were minus 7.5 most of the week, which means you could tease them down to -1.5 very easily. The number one is relatively dead in football, so you were basically asking a 17-0 situation to go to 18-0 by putting the Cowboys in teasers.

 

The Indianapolis Colts were also a popular teaser pick early in the week. Even though the closing line on that game was at 10 or higher, the number sat at 8.5 a few days earlier. Teaser players jumped all over that, and were part of the surge that drove the line higher in the first place. The sportsbooks HATED having so much exposure on the teasers, and lifted Indy out of range.

 

Amazingly, Green Bay was also in the strike zone in their game with Seattle. On some NFL Sundays during the regular season, it can be hard to find more than a few top notch nominees that cross the magic numbers. Here, with just four games on the schedule, THREE made a lot of sense.

 

And, they weren't just crossing the magic numbers. They were BYE TEAMS with GREAT QUARTERBACKS playing AT HOME that were crossing the magic numbers. The sharps went crazy with teasers based on the historical precedents.

 

Most everyone who knew anything about value betting in football had:

Green Bay teased with Indy

Green Bay teased with Dallas

Indy teased with Dallas

 

The favorites only had to win by a field goal or more for those to go 3-0. If one team failed, you still had a good shot that the other two would win comfortably, yielding a 2-1 worst case scenario.

 

Once the scores were in the books, disaster had happened for the sharps, while the sports books were rejoicing. All three went down because Indianapolis and Dallas lost outright. Both were in position to salvage late victories. Neither could do it.

 

Normally it's the public that gets "teased" with these particular propositions. This week, it was the sharps!

 

Compounding the weekend woes for many sharps:

 

A good percentage talked themselves into Seattle plus the points at Green Bay. There was a perception that the Packers had played a soft schedule, and would have trouble winning big against a much more experienced side. Green Bay was young except for their old quarterback. Seattle was the veteran side. There was kind of a bandwagon effect on Seattle on Saturday morning.

 

 

The Colts became a bandwagon team as well over the weekend. Though, this was mostly an anti-San Diego bet. Many sharps lost big on Tennessee (+) against San Diego the prior week, and felt they were robbed. If the Titans hadn't fumbled in scoring territory once, and missed a field goal, they would have been in position to win outright instead of losing by double digits. Many sharps were sure the Chargers would fall to pieces like they had in the past on the road against good teams. Normally a big dog winning is good news for the sharps. In this game, they were as stunned as anybody.

 

 

Dallas was a popular last second bet when the game line moved down to -7. I know some guys who bought down to -6.5 and laid some extra juice. Others laid the TD once the hook had been removed from -7.5. The news that Terrell Owens was moving well inspired these guys to step in. This was a case of the public properly ignoring injury news and betting on the dog, while the sharps overweighted the good news and laid the points. This is also something you almost never see in Vegas.

 

It wasn't a total disaster because most sharps hit Jacksonville Saturday Night, and won the total at whatever number they played. Some hit a middle when the game landed over the opener in the high 40's but Under the 51.5 or 52 that was available at various times. New England won 31-20. When that score was in the books, the sharps had basically gone 2-1 on their bets, and had the Green Bay part of their teasers in the books. They had NO IDEA what was about to hit them!

 

I'll talk more about what the sharps are thinking about this weekend's games in our Saturday report. Frankly, many are still kind of getting their bearings again. I've heard some very interesting discussions about the NY Giants/Green Bay game in particular. In the AFC, everyone's hoping they'll get some injury news later in the week before they have to make a decision.

 

The lesson for everyone here is that even the very best sports gamblers in the world have the occasional horrible day. You've seen pro poker players on TV have bad stretches. Heck, you watched Peyton Manning and Tony Romo lose games they were expected to win easily, and they both had great regular seasons coming in. You just never know for sure what's going to happen in the world of sports.

 

You've got to learn how to find value.

You've got to learn how to best exploit that value.

You've got to stay humble when things are going well.

You've got to accept that bad days are going to happen.

 

I think professional wagerers are very good at number one, fantastic at number two (their true strength if you ask me), relatively mediocre at number three (humility isn't something you run across much in Vegas, because the humble people stay out of your way), and surprisingly disciplined about number four. They hate losing as much as anybody. They do a good job of getting through it with minimal damage (because they exploit value so well), and they come back to fight another day.

 

How do most squares stack up against that list?

 

Squares are pretty bad about finding value, because they tend to lay prices on big favorites they shouldn't be laying. It gets to them eventually even if it doesn't get to them right away. Best exploiting the value? Doesn't happen. They see a line and they bet it. They don't shop around, or set up middles, or bet bigger at softer numbers like they should. Staying humble? There are no humble squares. There are squares who have busted out and are waiting for a chance to bet again. And, there are squares who are about to blow money because of overconfidence. One of the reasons so many squares bust out is because they get into a panic and chase in the middle of or right after a bad day.

 

Sharps aren't perfect, but their strengths in the right areas serve them well. Squares are bad at everything that matters. This is why casinos exist, and why so many are luxurious!

 

Do your best to think like a sharp. You won't win every day...but you'll win a lot more than you lose!

[Steeltown Dre]

An article on this week's games:

 

Oddmakers break down title game lines

By LYNDA COLLINS (Posted 1-15-08, 10:30 a.m.)

LAS VEGAS -- Oddsmaker Ken White, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, predicts Super Bowl XLII will be a rerun of the NFL's 1997 Green Bay-New England mid-winter extravaganza, while Sin City bookmakers report the bulk of early wagering for this weekend's conference championships is split between a favorite and a dog.

 

Green Bay, a 60/1 long shot to win the Super Bowl when the 2007 regular season kicked off, is a touchdown pick over the surging wild card New York Giants in the NFC title game. The Giants, winners of nine straight on the road, stunned Dallas 21-17 in one divisional matchup last weekend, while the Packers rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to crush Seattle 42-20 at snowy Lambeau Field in the other.

Unbeaten New England (17-0), a two touchdown pick, hosts San Diego in an affair between what White calls the two hottest teams in pro football in the AFC Championship. The Pats ousted Jacksonville from the postseason 31-20 and the Chargers stunned 2007 Super Bowl champion Indianapolis 28-24.

Conference championships will be played in Green Bay and Foxboro on Sunday.

"We've already received a ton of money on the Packers," Hilton SuperBook supervisor Jeff Sherman said. "The money's all been on the dog in the other game. We opened at 15 and we're now at 14."

Wynn and Harrah's both had the number at 14 1/2 Tuesday morning; Wynn also had Green Bay laying 7 1/2.

The Patriots are a huge 1/3 Hilton choice to win the Feb. 3 Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. The Packers are a 4/1 second pick, with the Chargers 10/1 and the Giants assuming the long shot's mantle at 12/1.

"Straight up I think the two favorites will win," White said, cautioning, however, that "anything's possible" in light of Sunday's upsets of the Cowboys and Colts."

The oddsmaker says New York's best chance is "just to keep doing what the Giants have been doing."

"They're playing well, playing good D, showing depth and winning on the road," White declared. "They totally outplayed Dallas Sunday. They made adjustments and the Cowboys didn't."

White pronounced Eli Manning "a big-time quarterback" and says the fact Peyton's little brother has the Giants in the conference championship speaks for itself.

"He had a good, not great, year," White said. "He's playing with confidence. He completed 56 percent of his passes playing in a home stadium where it's difficult to complete passes if it's windy. Eli has what it takes. It's generally thought that it takes four years for a player to develop into a solid NFL quarterback and he's there. It's going to be a tough game, but I'd lean to the Giants with the points."

Straight up is another matter, especially with well-seasoned veteran Brett Favre calling the shots for Green Bay.

"The Packers are home and they've got Favre," White said. "Last weekend we saw (Ryan) Grant has also given them a running game."

He expects weather could be a factor in Green Bay.

"It's going to be extremely cold, something like 10 degrees, which will be tough on both teams," White said. "I think 7 may be a little high."

LVSC sent the total out at 44 and it continues to drop. Stores on Tuesday morning had the over/under at between 41 1/2 and 42 1/2.

"If it's not windy I think the total is going the wrong way," said White, who correctly took the OVER in Green Bay's victory over Seattle.

A straight up Chargers triumph over the Brady Bunch isn't out of the question either, White believes, despite the double-digit pointspread. The Pats have struggled at times lately while failing to cover, including against the Jaguars last weekend.

"The Pats need to step it up a notch this weekend," he said.

White notes the pressure is on New England, which is seeking to go 18-0 en route to a Super Bowl title and unblemished 19-0 slate.

"This is going to be a pressure-packed game," he observed. "The longer the Pats go without losing, the more the pressure builds. I think San Diego will keep it close."

If they are to beat New England, the oddsmaker points to several things the Chargers must do.

"First they need to run the football," he said. "They need to control the line of scrimmage and they need to convert on third down."

White expects to see both running back LaDanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers on the field Sunday, though both left the game versus Indy with injuries.

"They're listed as probable and I expect them to be fine," he said.

"I think (Coach) Norv Turner made the right decision in taking them both out last weekend rather than risk further injury. I can't imagine either player not being ready to play in this one."

New England nipped San Diego last season for the right to face Indianapolis in the AFC Championship.

The Pats-Chargers total was shipped at 50, but also steadily was dropping. Books had it between 47 1/2 and 48 1/2 on Tuesday.

"The pros say go UNDER," White said.

White doesn't expect weather to be as much of a factor in Foxboro as in Green Bay.

"The storms are due Friday and Saturday," he said. "It should be fine by Sunday. It'll be cold, in the 20s. but I don't think it will affect the scoring."

[Gdawg]

After watching my weeks worth of work go down the tubes with the Indy loss, it has come to my attention that I don't know Athenae. I'm not diciplined enough to follow systems like Dre. And if San Diego can beat the Colts given the enormous odds they faced, I just have to shake my head and walk away. I didn't hedge. not a penny. I was so sure Indy would win there was no way in hell I was going to give the man a penny of it. A rare moment of courage that bit me square in the ass. I got some serious bad mojo going. It was fun guys, I hope you stick 'em hard.

 

I am sorry I haven't been around guys, Sunday was a crippling day for me. Just crippling. Freaking Colts, unbelievable.

 

I'll chip in if I can, but given my Lang-esque performance over the past week, you'd probably do well to fade me.

[rattsass]

I'm going to do my part guys. Both favorites cover. Fade away!!

[Randall]

How windy is it there right now? From one site I'm seeing about 13mph there right now. I'm seeing it should reach 33 mph on Thurs over night, very strong. But that after that front passes, it will clear out some air that returns to 13 mph for only a few hrs on Friday, and then Friday night thru Sunday night winds are over 20 mph. It is showing that drops into the upper teens by gametime, but that the temps starting Sat into Sunday thru Sunday night don't get into double digits. Is that what you are hearing up there?

 

 

Sorry I missed this, not windy yet but arctic winds expected to come down starting today.

[Steeltown Dre]

OK guys, the under bottomed out last night and this morning. I didn't get O 39.5 but I did get O 40 -110 on GB/NYG

 

So I have the U 42 and O 40. I have more on the O 40. I think O 40 is a good bet, as my line says 46.7 I still see O 40.5 out there for -110, if you want to get in on that.

 

For NE/SD, I had the U 48.5. This morning I saw the O at 46 w/ juice rising, so I made a move and took O 46. I put an equal amount on the O 46 as I have on the U 48.5

 

Essentially, I'm buying back on the Under, and hoping the final lands on 47 or 48 for a middle. It's only 2 points, but I've got to live w/ that.

 

So right now, I'm pulling very hard for O 40 and holding outside hope for a 41, but odds are I think it will go higher than that.

 

And for NE/SD, I'm holding outside hope for a 47 or 48, but am not risking much as that would be a true middle, and if it goes higher or lower, I'm almost all the way offset.

 

At O 40, that qualifies for a 20-1 system play. Meaning I banged the Over pretty well. I know the weather should affect the score, and that's why I am not fully confident in this play, but I still am riding it.

 

So in terms of record keeping purposes, only one play will count, and that's the GB Over. But know that I have unders and overs on both games.

 

As for sides, not sure what if anything I am going to do. Analyzed it some this week and I'm struggling to find a side I am comfortable with. I'll update later if I play anything.

 

As for weather, I'm seeing air temps in GB at -2 and winds at 10 mph, wind chill of around -12. This game could be an Under, but I'm rolling the dice and hoping they put together at least 40 points.

 

less than 40, lose the over, win the under, lose money as I have more on the over than the under

40 and I push the over, win the under, + money

41, win the over, win the under, perfect situation

42, win the over, push the under, this is another good situation

43 or more, win the over, lose the under, but come in + money as I have more on the over than the under

 

So I would be loving a 41, very happy w/ 42, and pretty happy w/ 43 or more or 40. I'd be out money w/ less than 40.

[Steeltown Dre]

Budin's got a 100 Dimer:

 

http://www.sportsadvisors.com/HDMAIN/conte...andicapperId=62

 

The play is GB 100 Dimes

[darin3]

Budin's got a 100 Dimer:

 

http://www.sportsadvisors.com/HDMAIN/conte...andicapperId=62

 

The play is GB 100 Dimes

Well, does he like them at -7.5?

[Steeltown Dre]

Well, does he like them at -7.5?

 

I don't have his full writeup just yet. He usually will advise buying down 0.5 points. So that's where we will find out what he is advocating, once I get the writeup.

 

When he had the Jags -2.5, he advised buying down to -2, and if you had -2, he advised buying to -1.5.

 

However, he counted the game as -2.5 and graded himself a Loss, so at least he seems more honest than most guys.

 

If GB won by 7, I'm not sure if he'd count a loss or a push, since it was 7 the other day and now is back up. But I can guess his writeup will tell you to by 0.5 points no matter if you have 7.5 or 7. Just my guess.

[darin3]

I don't have his full writeup just yet. He usually will advise buying down 0.5 points. So that's where we will find out what he is advocating, once I get the writeup.

 

When he had the Jags -2.5, he advised buying down to -2, and if you had -2, he advised buying to -1.5.

 

However, he counted the game as -2.5 and graded himself a Loss, so at least he seems more honest than most guys.

 

If GB won by 7, I'm not sure if he'd count a loss or a push, since it was 7 the other day and now is back up. But I can guess his writeup will tell you to by 0.5 points no matter if you have 7.5 or 7. Just my guess.

 

Well, I bought it down to -7 but I'm thinking I probably did not need to. I think the Pack wins by double digits.

[Gdawg]

I was thinking GB as well. Once I saw Budin's 100D on another site, I decided to roll with it.

 

GB -6.5 for me tomorrow.

[fairwarning]

Budin's got a 100 Dimer:

 

http://www.sportsadvisors.com/HDMAIN/conte...andicapperId=62

 

The play is GB 100 Dimes

 

 

Thanks once again Dre'.

 

Question for you...in NFL / NBA games..when the O / U falls on the number, is ALWAYS to the Casino's or your local guys favor ?

 

Should that be considered a push and you pay juice only ?

 

Thanks

Edited January 20, 2008 by fairwarning

[Steeltown Dre]

Thanks once again Dre'.

 

Question for you...in NFL / NBA games..when the O / U falls on the number, is ALWAYS to the Casino's or your local guys favor ?

 

Should that be considered a push and you pay juice only ?

 

Thanks

 

As long as it's not part of a multiplay (teaser/parlay), a game that falls on the number results in a push and you get everything back. I don't have to pay juice, you just get the wagered amount back.

 

For instance, if you take U 42 for -120 and lay 120 to win 100, and it lands on 42, you get your 120 back. If it was U 42 for +120, you lay 100 to win 120, and it lands on 42, you get your 100 back.

[xMRogers]

just put another half unit on the 2nd half over (24). With the unit on the over at 47, I just made it a 1.5 unit play...they are going to trade scores here on out

[xMRogers]

As long as it's not part of a multiplay (teaser/parlay), a game that falls on the number results in a push and you get everything back. I don't have to pay juice, you just get the wagered amount back.

 

For instance, if you take U 42 for -120 and lay 120 to win 100, and it lands on 42, you get your 120 back. If it was U 42 for +120, you lay 100 to win 120, and it lands on 42, you get your 100 back.

 

One note - local guys usually keep the juice in this case (but also usually lay less juice in general). online guys "cancel" the bet on a push. That's been my experience at least.

[xMRogers]

and that is why i shouldn't bet totals unless i'm following dre....