Super Bowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Didn't hit on the middles I was attempting, but hit on my one large play which was generated by my 20-1 overs system, so I went 1-0 in the CC round and up my overs system to 21-1 for the year.

 

Here's a recap of my playoff posted plays:

 

Wildcard round:

Sat: 3-0 on all plays, all of which were large (including very large on system over)

Sun: 2-1 on all plays, all of which were light

 

Divisional round:

Sat: 4-0 on all plays, 1 of which was very large (system over)

Sun: 0-4 on all plays (2 sides, 2 teasers), all of which were light

 

Conference Championship round:

Sun: 1-0 winning very large on the over, and essentially breaking even on the middle attempt in NE

 

That brings the record to 4 winning days and 1 losing day (which was a light day anyway, including 2 light teasers).

Total record is 10-5 on all posted plays (67%)

3-0 on very large system over plays

 

Not a bad way to conclude close out another profitable season.

 

Onto the Superbowl:

 

My top ATS system which picked 63% ATS this season had NE -14.9

 

As you know, the line opened at NE -14, and is now down to -12

 

This system has been more "in tune" w/ actual lines than most systems I've seen. In fact, the only line of the playoffs it actually had a small lean on was Pittsburgh when they were getting 2.5 vs Jac. That play won, (barely) but every other game in every other round it's been virtually dead on w/ the opening lines.

 

I have another ATS system which favors dogs, and although I didn't like the results of this system during the season, in the postseason it's been on fire. No plays in the WC round, but in the Div round, it had:

 

Jac + points over NE (and thought Jac could win SU)

SD + points over Ind (and thought SD could win SU)

NYG + points over Dal (and thought Dal could win SU)

 

In the CC round it had:

 

SD + points over NE - but thinks NE wins

NYG + points over GB (and thought NYG wins by 3.1 points SU)

 

So it took essentially every dog (except for Sea over GB) and won all of them.

 

For the SB, it's predicting NYG cover but don't win.

 

So my most accurate system thinks NE can win by 14-15, and my other system (which is winning in the playoffs) thinks NYG can cover.

 

I'm going to have to do a lot more analysis than to place advice on either team at this point in time.

 

As for the total:

 

Unfortunately my 21-1 overs system does not like the over here. That doesn't mean the over won't hit, it's just that it's not seeing the value. It in fact is predicting a total of 51 points scored. However, that amount does not even generate a "lean" for the system (leans have gone 64-35 this season = 65%)

 

So at this point, the system itself is not generating anything solid in terms of ATS or totals.

 

We'll have to see how much I can get down in terms of analysis over the next week.

 

I hope you guys who are still "in the game" at this stage in the season have had a good run in the postseason and that these threads have helped you this year.

 

It's been year 2 of me posting plays here on the huddle and another profitable year. I'll continue to work on postseason stuff as usual and hopefully be back next year w/ an even better season. Just to let you know, though, I can pretty much bet everything I own that none of my systems will be able to go 21-1 (95%) next season. It's just way too unreal to make 22 plays in both the regular season and postseason and only lose 1. A lot has to go in your favor.

 

Luck is involved but there is a lot of skill involved also. The 2006 postseason (when the Steelers won the SB) I won a documented contest in postseason plays, going 16-2. I was 15-1 heading into the SB, but I hedged my 2 SB plays to ensure I'd come out in 1st place no matter the outcome (I could see the 2nd and 3rd place plays before I made mine).

 

I don't think I will ever go 15-1 in a postseason again. This year I went 10-5 (but you remove the light teasers and just sides/totals, 10-3).

 

But, I'll be back next year and we'll see how it goes.

 

Well, good luck and let's hear some SB analysis.

[Steeltown Dre]

Last year's SB I had Ind ML pending for +150 as I took them very large for +150 in the CC round (vs the pats) to win the SB. So I slightly took Chi +6.5 to try and get a middle, but needed an Ind victory. Ind won by 12, so I still made out quite nicely, but didn't get the middle.

 

This year taking NE in the CC to win the SB had terrible odds (-350) so I don't have any futures bets pending.

 

Since 92, we've had 9 overs and 7 unders.

Average total has been 47 and avg final has been 51.5 points

 

SBs w/ totals of 50 or more:

 

4 overs, 3 unders.

 

In those yeras, the losing team has averaged 20 points, and it's been pretty close in terms of the losing teams seem to avg around 20 in each situation:

 

02 New England Patriots 20 @ St Louis Rams 17 Vegas total = 52.5, Total scored = 37

99 Atlanta Falcons 19 @ Denver Broncos 34 Vegas total = 52, Total scored = 53

98 Denver Broncos 31 @ Green Bay Packers 24 Vegas total = 50, Total scored = 55

97 New England Patriots 21 @ Green Bay Packers 35 Vegas total = 52, Total scored = 56

96 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Dallas Cowboys 27 Vegas total = 51, Total scored = 44

95 San Diego Chargers 26 @ San Francisco 49ers 49 Vegas total = 52, Total scored = 75

94 Buffalo Bills 13 @ Dallas Cowboys 30 Vegas total = 50, Total scored = 43

 

17, 19, 24, 21, 17, 26 and 13

 

The question is, if NYG scores around 20, will NE put up enough to send the game over?

 

This total is the highest total we've seen since at least 92 when I've been tracking it. Opened at 55 and is now 53.5.

 

Reasons include their first meeting which combined for 73 points and the thought that in warmer weather NE can open its passing attack.

 

Only 1 of NE's last 6 games went over, and it was that NYG game. All others have gone under (1 push) and the highest line was 51 vs Jac

 

Can they put up 34 points on the Giants if the Giants get at least 20?

 

The Pats off their bye scored 56 on Buffalo and held them to only 10.

 

The Giants off their bye scored only 20 and allowed 31 to the Cowboys.

 

The Pats never faced a team off its bye.

 

The Giants faced SF off its bye, and NYG scored 33 and allowed only 15 (granted it was SF and it was a x-country trip for them).

 

Things to think about when looking at how these teams can prepare. We'll pay close attention to the media discussing "These teams can't stop each other". If we're hearing a ton of talk about scores for both teams in the 30s or the winner in the 40s, the public will jump on and might help the under for us.

 

I wish I jumped on the under 55 but that was here for minutes. I would have loved Under 55 and NYG +14 for good juice. That way, you can always lay it off later. But too late to think about that now...

[Steeltown Dre]

A look at NE's meetings (since Belichick) in the postseason w/ teams they faced in the regular season:

 

2007 -

WC vs Jets (split season series, 1W, 1L, 1ATSW, 1ATSL) so ignore

CC @ Colts, NE SU L and ATS L (SU L and ATS L in regular season)

 

2006 -

DP @ Den, NE SU L and ATS L (SU L and ATS L in regular season)

 

2005 -

DP vs Colts, NE SU W and ATS W (SU W and ATS L in regular season)

 

2004 -

DP vs Titans, NE SU W and ATS L (SU W and ATS W in regular season)

CC vs Colts, NE SU W and ATS W (SU W and ATS W in regular season)

 

2002 -

SB vs Rams, NE SU W and ATS W (SU L and ATS W in regular season)

 

Number of times SU result was the same: 5 out of 6

Number of times ATS result was the same: 4 out of 6

Number of times W SU in the season but lost SU in the playoffs: 0 out of 3

Number of times W SU in the season but lost ATS in the playoffs: 1 out of 3

Number of times L ATS in the season but won ATS in the playoffs: 1 out of 3

 

I performed the above exercise because I wanted to see how the Pats matched up w/ non-divisional teams in the playoffs if they met during the regular season (like they did w/ NYG).

 

Looking only at divisional (regular season) matchups over the last 3 season, the Pats went 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in the first meeting of the year w/ divisional opponents.

 

In the second meeting of the year, they went 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS.

 

Even more interesting was the fact that the 2 games where NE lost ATS in the 1st meeting, they won ATS the 2nd meeting!

 

The 7 games where NE won ATS their first meeting, they lost 5 of the 7 ATS the second meeting!

 

Therefore, looking at all 9 games, the ATS results flip flopped in 7 of the 9 games.

 

This, while important, is only regular season, however it's still something to note.

 

Therefore, the playoff lines/results seem to contradict regular lines/results.

 

In the postseason, 4 out of the 6 meetings had the same ATS result

In the regular season, only 2 out of 9 meetings had the same ATS result

 

Also something to note:

 

In the postseason when NE won SBs, they won and covered in the CC round game

But, in those SBs, NE went 0-2 as the favorite ATS, winning each game by 3 points while being favored by 7 points.

 

All of these things should be considered. NE did not cover in this CC round and is being favored by a large number, which is nothing new to this years Pats. Last time we had a DD fav in the SB, NE was the dog and knocked off StL.

 

Other than that 2002 game, from 94-98 (5 SBs) the NFC team was favored by 10 or more over the AFC team. This included 2 Cowboys teams, 1 Niners, and 2 GB. They went 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS.

 

So we've had 6 SBs since 1992 where the favorite was giving 10 or more. The fav has gone 4-2 SU and 2-3-1 ATS (but has lost SU the last 2 times).

 

I'm still in the "data gathering mode" so these posts may not exactly "conclude" or give advice. But collecting all the info (and hopefully contributing some that you see or find) should help over the next several days to paint a clearer picture and help give me a side here. If I had a great feeling one way or another, I would have already made my move.

 

The play I liked the most would have been U55. That's not an option any longer, and so I'll have to wait and see how the week goes. Just because it's "The Big Game" does not mean you have to bet it, or bet it large. Of course, those NFL guys like myself (I really only cap the NFL) will find ourselves without that income stream for the next 8 months. So that's a sad day of course, but I typically advocate playing each game like it's a regular game. You go large and pick your spots, but you only do so when you have good info or a good feeling. You don't go large just because it's a primetime game or a MNF game or the Super Bowl. You go large when you see a great advantage, a public perception to fade, and/or a variety of other things that lead you to that decision.

 

I hope you take that advice, and I'm not saying I won't go large or you shouldn't, I'm just saying that personally, I am thinking this game will be fairly "standard" in terms of units for me, as I don't (as of right now) see an enormous opportunity to take advantage of. But, you never know what may surface...

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to discuss:

 

Superbowl XLII Props (from Pinny)

 

Ahmad Bradshaw Running back Props

 

Total rushing yards made by Ahmad Bradshaw

511 Over 40.5 rushing yards -140

512 Under 40.5 rushing yards +124

 

Total pass receptions made by Ahmad Bradshaw

513 Over 0.5 pass receptions -176

514 Under 0.5 pass receptions +156

 

Will Ahmad Bradshaw score a touchdown in the game

515 Yes +195

516 No -215

 

Ahmad Bradshaw first rushing attempt will be

517 Over 3.5 yards -108

518 Under 3.5 yards -108

 

Ahmad Bradshaw Longest Rush in game

519 Over 10.5 yards -133

520 Under 10.5 yards +117

 

Total rushing attempts made by Ahmad Bradshaw

521 Over 10.5 rushing attempts -103

522 Under 10.5 rushing attempts -113

 

Total rush+receiving yards made by Ahmad Bradshaw

529 Over 50.5 rush+receiving yards -150

530 Under 50.5 rush+receiving yards +130

 

Brandon Jacobs Running Back Props

 

Total rushing yards made by Brandon Jacobs

551 Over 60.5 rushing yards +101

552 Under 60.5 rushing yards -117

 

Total pass receptions made by Brandon Jacobs

553 Over 1.5 pass receptions +114

554 Under 1.5 pass receptions -130

 

Will Brandon Jacobs score a touchdown in the game

555 Yes -104

556 No -112

 

Brandon Jacobs first rushing attempt will be

557 Over 3.5 yards +105

558 Under 3.5 yards -121

 

Brandon Jacobs Longest Rush in game

559 Over 12.5 yards -108

560 Under 12.5 yards -108

 

Total rushing attempts made by Brandon Jacobs

561 Over 15.5 rushing attempts +105

562 Under 15.5 rushing attempts -121

 

Total pass receiving yards made by Brandon Jacobs

563 Over 12.5 receiving yards -108

564 Under 12.5 receiving yards -108

 

Brandon Jacobs first pass reception will be

565 Over 5.5 yards -108

566 Under 5.5 yards -108

 

Brandon Jacobs total rushing yards will be

567 Odd -105

568 Even -105

 

Eli Manning Quarterback Props

 

What will happen first for Eli Manning

601 Throw a TD pass -149

602 Throw an Interception +129

 

Eli Manning first pass of the game will be

603 Complete -178

604 Incomplete +180

605 Throw an Interception +1494

 

Total passing yards made by Eli Manning

606 Over 232.5 passing yards +139

607 Under 232.5 passing yards -159

 

Total pass completions made by Eli Manning

608 Over 21.5 pass completions +120

609 Under 21.5 pass completions -136

 

Total pass attempts made by Eli Manning

610 Over 34.5 pass attempts -127

611 Under 34.5 pass attempts +111

 

Eli Manning 1st rushing attempt in game will be

614 Over 1.5 yards +114

615 Under 1.5 yards -130

 

Manning total gross passing yrds made will be an

616 Odd -105

617 Even -105

 

Field Goal Props

 

The longest field goal made in the game will be

401 Over 44.5 yards +118

402 Under 44.5 yards -134

 

The shortest field goal made in the game will be

403 Over 25.5 yards -107

404 Under 25.5 yards -109

 

Total number of field goals made by both teams

405 Over 3.5 field goals +160

406 Under 3.5 field goals -180

 

Total number of field goals missed by both teams

407 Over 0.5 field goals -141

408 Under 0.5 field goals +121

 

Will both teams make a FG of 33+ yards in game

411 Yes +155

412 No -175

 

Will a successful field goal made in the 1st qtr

413 Yes +104

414 No -120

 

The last score of the first half will be

417 A Field Goal -103

418 Any Other Score -113

 

First made field goal will be

419 No Field Goals Made +889

420 1 - 22 Yards +554

421 23 - 29 Yards +453

422 30 - 36 Yards +403

423 37 - 43 Yards +453

424 44 - 49 Yards +450

425 50 or more yards +860

 

First Half Fireworks Props

 

Manning vs Brady - 1st half most passing

651 Eli Manning +30.5 passing yards -116

652 Tom Brady -30.5 passing yards +100

 

Manning vs Brady - 1st half most pass completions

653 Eli Manning +2.5 pass completions +114

654 Tom Brady -2.5 pass completions -130

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - 1st half most rushing yards

655 Brandon Jacobs +11.5 rushing yards -121

656 Laurence Maroney -11.5 rushing yards +105

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - 1st half most rushing attempts

659 Brandon Jacobs +2.5 rushing attempts -121

660 Laurence Maroney -2.5 rushing attempts +105

 

Burress vs Moss - 1st half most pass receiving yrd

661 Plaxico Burress +10.5 receiving yards -132

662 Randy Moss -10.5 receiving yards +116

 

Tommer vs Welker- 1st half most pass receiving yrd

663 Amari Toomer +10.5 receiving yards -116

664 Wes Welker -10.5 receiving yards +100

 

Burress vs Moss - 1st half longest pass receptions

673 Plaxico Burress +126

674 Randy Moss -142

 

Toomer vs Welker- 1st half longest pass receptions

675 Amari Toomer +120

676 Wes welker -136

 

Boss vs Watson - 1st half longest pass receptions

677 Kevin Boss +130

678 Ben Watson -146

 

First Qaurter Shootout Props

 

Manning vs Brady - 1st qtr most passing yrds

701 Eli Manning +15.5 passing yards -136

702 Tom Brady -15.5 passing yards +120

 

Manning vs Brady -1st qtr most pass completions

703 Eli Manning +1.5 pass completions -120

704 Tom Brady -1.5 pass completions +104

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - 1st qtr most rushing yards

705 Brandon Jacobs +5.5 rushing yards -124

706 Laurence Maroney -5.5 rushing yards +108

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - 1st qtr longest rush

707 Brandon Jacobs +110

708 Laurence Maroney -126

 

Burress vs Moss - 1st qtr most pass receiving yrds

709 Plaxico Buress +114

710 Randy Moss -130

 

Toomer vs Welker - 1st qtr most pass receiving yrd

06:15 PM 711 Amari Toomer +134

712 Wes Welker -150

 

Boss vs Watson - 1st qtr most pass receiving yrds

713 Kevin Boss +134

714 Ben Watson -150

 

Halves

 

Will there be more points scored in

427 1st half +0.5 Points -126

428 2nd half + OT -0.5 Points +110

 

Laurence Maroney Running Back Props

 

Total rushing yards made by Laurence Maroney

801 Over 81.5 rushing yards +105

802 Under 81.5 rushing yards -121

 

Total pass receptions made by Laurence Maroney

803 Over 0.5 pass receptions -230

804 Under 0.5 pass receptions +200

 

Will Laurence Maroney score a touchdown in game

805 Yes -170

806 No +150

 

Laurence Maroney first rushing attempt will be

807 Over 3.5 yards -108

808 Under 3.5 yards -108

 

Laurence Maroney Longest Rush in game

809 Over 16.5 yards +101

810 Under 16.5 yards -117

 

Total rushing attempts made by Laurence Maroney

811 Over 19.5 rushing attempts +105

812 Under 19.5 rushing attempts -121

 

Laurence Maroney total rushing yards will be

817 Odd -105

818 Even -105

 

New England Patriots Comparison Props

 

Will New England score in every quarter

431 Yes -130

432 No +114

 

Will New England score more points in

433 1st half +0.5 Points -130

434 2nd half -0.5 Points +114

 

Will any Patriots player score 2 or more Touchdown

435 Yes +119

436 No -139

 

Will New England score in both 1st and 2nd qtr

437 Yes -220

438 No +200

 

Will New England Patriots convert a 4th down

439 Yes -170

440 No +150

 

Will the Patriots Throw a interception in 1st half

441 Yes +200

442 No -220

 

What will happen first

443 New England score -147

444 New England Punt +131

 

New England first Touchdown of the game will be

445 TD Pass -200

446 Any Other TD +180

 

Total number of Patriots players to catch a pass

447 Over 6.5 players -220

448 Under 6.5 players +200

 

Will the final score for New England be

465 Odd -120

466 Even +104

 

New England first score of the game will be

467 Touchdown -220

468 Field Goal or Safety +200

 

New England last score of the game will be

469 Touchdown -205

470 Field Goal or Safety +185

 

New York Giants Comparison Props

 

Will New York Giants score in every quarter

901 Yes +240

902 No -260

 

Will New York Giants score more points in

903 The 1st half +0.5 Points -117

904 The 2nd half -0.5 Points +101

 

Will any Giants player score 2 or more Touchdowns

905 Yes +270

906 No -300

 

Will NY Giants score in both 1st and 2nd qtr

907 Yes -121

908 No +105

 

Will New York Giants convert a 4th down

909 Yes +110

910 No -126

 

Will Giants Throw a interception in the 1st half

911 Yes +130

912 No -150

 

What will happen first

913 NY Giants Score +124

914 Ny Giants punt -140

 

NY Giants first Touchdown of the game will be

915 TD Pass -136

916 Any Other TD +120

 

Total number of Giants players to catch a pass

917 Over 6.5 players -146

918 Under 6.5 players +130

 

Total rushing yards made by New York Giants

919 Over 99.5 rushing yrds -125

920 Under 99.5 rushing yrds +109

 

Total first downs made by New York Giants

923 Over 18.5 1st downs +105

924 Under 18.5 1st downs -121

 

Total 3rd down Conversions by New York Giants

925 Over 5.5 3rd down conversions -114

926 Under 5.5 3rd down conversions -102

 

Will New York Giants get a rushing TD in game

929 Yes -160

930 No +140

 

Total number of different Giants to score

931 Over 3.5 players +133

932 Under 3.5 players -149

 

Total team Net Yards made by New York Giants

933 Over 328.5 yards -108

934 Under 328.5 yards -108

 

New York Giants first score of the game will be

937 Touchdown -150

938 Field Goal or Safety +130

 

New York Giants last score of the game will be

939 Touchdown -190

940 Field Goal or Safety +170

 

First offensive touchdown by N Y Giants will be

941 Rushing TD +124

942 Passing TD -140

 

Total sacks recorded by Giants defense will be

943 Over 1.5 sacks -129

944 Under 1.5 sacks +113

 

Will the Giants score a touchdown in the 1st qtr

945 Yes +150

946 No -170

 

Quarterback Comparison Props

 

Manning vs Brady - most gross passing yards made

861 Eli Manning +58.5 passing yards +140

862 Tom Brady -58.5 passing yards -156

 

Manning vs Brady - most pass completions made by

863 Eli Manning +5.5 pass completions -116

864 Tom Brady -5.5 pass completions +100

 

Manning vs Brady - to throw the 1st TD pass

865 Eli Manning +196

866 Tom Brady -216

 

Manning vs Brady - most TD pass thrown by

867 Eli Manning +1.5 TD passes -196

868 Tom Brady -1.5 TD passes +156

 

Manning vs Brady - 1st QB to reach 100+ pass yrds

869 Eli Manning +196

870 Tom Brady -216

 

Quarters

 

Which quarter will most points be scored in

875 1st quarter +316

876 2nd quarter +196

877 3rd quarter +297

878 4th quarter +257

 

Will at least one quarter be scoreless

879 Yes +340

880 No -400

 

Receivers and Tight Ends Props

 

Burress vs Moss - most pass receiving yards by

2001 Plaxico Burress +20.5 receiving yrds -150

2002 Randy Moss -20.5 receiving yrds +130

 

Toomer vs Welker - most pass receiving yards by

2003 Amani Toomer +22.5 receiving yrds -126

2004 Wes Welker -22.5 receiving yrds +110

 

Boss vs Watson - most pass receiving yards by

2005 Kevin Boss +3.5 receiving yrds -108

2006 Ben Watson -3.5 receiving yrds -108

 

Smith vs Stallworth - most pass receiving yards by

2007 Steve Smith +9.5 receiving yrds -116

2008 Donte Stallworth -9.5 receiving yrds +100

 

Burress vs Moss - Who will score a TD 1st

2008 Plaxico Burres +140

2009 Randy Moss -160

 

Toomer vs Welker - Who will score a TD 1st

2010 Amani Toomer +135

2011 Wes Welker -155

 

Boss vs Watson - Who will score a TD 1st

2012 Kevin Boss +200

2013 Ben Watson -220

 

Smith vs Stallworth - Who will score a TD 1st

2014 Steve Smith +130

2015 Donte Stallworth -150

 

Total pass receptions made by Plaxico Burress

2016 Over 4.5 pass receptions -121

2017 Under 4.5 pass receptions +105

 

Plaxico Burress first pass reception will be

2018 Over 9.5 yards -132

2019 Under 9.5 yards +116

 

Plaxico Burress longest pass reception will be

2020 Over 20.5 yards -132

2021 Under 20.5 yards +116

 

Total pass receiving yards made by Plaxico Burress

2022 Over 70.5 receiving yrds -132

2023 Under 70.5 receiving yrds +116

 

Total pass receptions made by Randy Moss

2024 Over 5.5 pass receptions -103

2025 Under 5.5 pass receptions -113

 

Randy Moss first pass reception will be

2026 Over 12.5 yards -117

2027 Under 12.5 yards +101

 

Total pass receiving yards made by Randy Moss

2028 Over 92.5 receiving yrds +100

2029 Under 92.5 receiving yrds -116

 

Running Back Comparison Props

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - Longest Rush in game

1051 Brandon Jacobs +130

1052 Laurence Maroney -146

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - most rushing yards made by

1055 Brandon Jacobs +22.5 rushing yards -132

1056 Laurence Maroney -22.5 rushing yards +116

 

Jacobs vs Maroney - Who will score a TD 1st

1057 Brandon Jacobs +146

1058 Laurence Maroney -166

 

Team Comparison Props

 

Team to score first in the game will be

301 NY Giants +160

302 NE Patriots -180

 

Team to score last in the game will be

303 NY Giants +150

304 NE Patriots -170

 

Team to get the first 1st down in the game

305 NY Giants +112

306 NE Patriots -128

 

Team to commit the first penalty in the game

307 NY Giants -114

308 NE Patriots -102

 

Team to punt first in the game

309 NY Giants -145

310 NE Patriots +129

 

Team to have the longest touchdown scored in game

311 NY Giants +156

312 NE Patriots -176

 

Team to use coaches challenge first in the game

313 NY Giants -115

314 NE Patriots -101

 

Team to get 6 1st downs first in the game

315 NY Giants +126

316 NE Patriots -142

 

Team to have the longest kickoff return in game

317 NY Giants -160

318 NE Patriots +140

 

Team to have the longest punt return in the game

319 NY Giants +165

320 NE Patriots -185

 

Which team will record the first QB sack in game

321 NY Giants +114

322 NE Patriots -130

 

First team to cross midfield on offense

325 NY Giants +130

326 NE Patriots -146

 

Team to make a 3rd down conversion 1st in the game

327 NY Giants +116

328 NE Patriots -132

 

Team to use the first time out in the game

329 NY Giants -124

330 NE Patriots +108

 

First team to be penalized for pass interference

331 NY Giants -130

332 NE Patriots +114

 

Team to get called for holding penalty 1st in game

333 NY Giants -117

334 NE Patriots +101

 

Team to record the first pass interception in game

335 NY Giants +190

336 NE Patriots -210

 

Team to have the most 1st downs in the game

337 NY Giants +4.5 1st downs -105

338 NE Patriots -4.5 1st downs -111

 

Which team will enter the red zone first

353 NY Giants +145

354 NE Patriots -165

 

Which team will score from inside the red zone

355 NY Giants +150

356 NE Patriots -170

 

Team to have the most penalty yards in the game

357 NY Giants -108

358 NE Patriots -108

 

Which team will call for a fair catch 1st in game

359 NY Giants +190

360 NE Patriots -210

 

Team to have the last ball possession in the game

361 NY Giants +197

362 NE Patriots -217

 

Team to have the most time possession in the game

363 NY Giants +5.5 minutes -156

364 NE Patriots -5.5 minutes +140

 

Team to commit the most turnovers in the game

367 NY Giants -240

368 NE Patriots +210

 

Team to have the most punts in the game

369 NY Giants -2.5 punts +135

370 NE Patriots +2.5 punts -155

 

Team to record 3 punts first in the game

371 NY Giants -264

372 NE Patriots +234

 

Team to make the 1st successful field goal in game

373 NY Giants -102

374 NE Patriots -114

 

Team to miss the first field goal in the game

375 NY Giants -157

376 NE Patriots +137

 

Team to have the longest field goal in the game

377 NY Giants +104

378 NE Patriots -120

 

Team to have the shortest field goal in the game

379 NY Giants +105

380 NE Patriots -121

 

Team to have the most net yards in the game

381 NY Giants +74.5 yards +110

382 NE Patriots -74.5 yards -126

 

Team to have the first lost fumble in the game

383 NY Giants -136

384 NE Patriots +120

 

Team to commit the first turnover in the game

385 NY Giants -150

386 NE Patriots +134

 

Team to make the most successful FGs in the game

387 NY Giants +104

388 NE Patriots -120

 

Which team will score first in the 2nd quarter

389 NY Giants +143

390 NE Patriots -159

 

Team to have the most offensive plays in the game

391 NY Gaints +4.5 offensive plays -116

392 NE Patriots -4.5 offensive plays +100

 

Team to run the most offensive plays in 1st qtr

393 NY Gaints +1.5 offensive plays -113

394 NE Patriots -1.5 offensive plays -103

 

Team to run the most offensive plays in 1st half

395 NY Giants +2.5 offensive plays -116

396 NE Patriots -2.5 offensive plays +100

 

Team to score 1st in the last 2 mins of 1st half

397 NY Giants +160

398 NE Patriots -180

 

Team to have the longest run in the game

399 NY Giants +130

400 NE Patriots -146

 

Tom Brady Quarterback Props

 

What will happen first for Tom Brady

1081 Throw a TD pass -300

1082 Throw an Interception +260

 

Tom Brady first pass of the game will be

1083 Complete -270

1084 Incomplete +237

1085 Throw an Interception +2513

 

Total passing yards made by Tom Brady

1086 Over 292.5 passing yrds -114

1087 Under 292.5 passing yrds -102

 

Total pass completions made by Tom Brady

1088 Over 25.5 pass completions -108

1089 Under 25.5 pass completions -108

 

Total pass attempts made by Tom Brady

1090 Over 37.5 pass attempts +123

1091 Under 37.5 pass attempts -143

 

Tom Brady 1st rushing attempt in game will be

1094 Over 1.5 yards -108

1095 Under 1.5 yards -108

 

Tom Brady total gross passing yrds made will be an

1096 Odd -105

1097 Even -105

 

Will Tom Brady throw an interception in game

1098 Yes +110

1099 No -126

 

Total passing yards by Tom Brady

1102 0 to 100 yrds +1975

1103 101 to 190 yrds +845

1104 191 to 245 yrds +484

1105 246 to 299 yrds +209

1106 300 or more yrds +115

 

Touchdown Props

 

The shortest touchdown scored in the game will be

175 Over 1.5 yards +112

176 Under 1.5 yards -128

 

The shortest rushing TD scored in the game will be

177 Over 1.5 yards -125

178 Under 1.5 yards +109

 

First touchdown of the game will be

181 Passing TD -165

182 Any Other TD +145

 

How many yards will the 1st TD of the game be

183 No TD in the game +20000

185 1 - 7 Yards +198

186 8 - 15 Yards +301

187 16 - 25 Yards +602

188 26 - 39 Yards +804

189 40 - 59 Yards +1200

190 60 - 79 Yards +1700

191 80 - 95 Yards +2000

192 96 or more Yards +1200

 

Various Comparison Props

 

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in game

201 Yes -235

202 No +215

 

Will there be a score in 1st 7min 30sec of 1st qtr

203 Yes -226

204 No +206

 

Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored

205 Yes +150

206 No -170

 

Will there be a score in last 2mins of 1st half

207 Yes -270

208 No +240

 

Will the team that scores first win the game

209 Yes -220

210 No +200

 

Will the team that scores last win the game

211 Yes -205

212 No +185

 

Will both teams have the lead in the first half

213 Yes +110

214 No -126

 

Will there be a lead change in the second half

215 Yes +238

216 No -268

 

Will the game ever be tied after the first score

217 Yes +120

218 No -136

 

Will there be a 2 point conversion attempt

219 Yes +200

220 No -220

 

Will there be a successful 2 point conversion

221 Yes +444

222 No -544

 

Will either team convert a 4th down attempt

223 Yes -320

224 No +280

 

Will there be a safety in the game

225 Yes +740

226 No -940

 

Will there be a lost fumble in the first half

229 Yes -130

230 No +114

 

Will the game go into overtime

231 Yes +1012

232 No -1212

 

Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points

233 Yes +530

234 No -680

 

Will there be a score in last 3 min 30 sec of Game

235 Yes -185

236 No +165

 

Will either team have a 300 yards passer

237 Yes -155

238 No +135

 

Will there be a score in 1st 4mins of the 2nd qtr

239 Yes -146

240 No +130

 

Will there be a score in 1st 4mins of the 4th qtr

241 Yes -136

242 No +120

 

The first score of the game will be

243 Touchdown -213

244 Field Goal or Safety +193

 

The last score of the game will be

245 Touchdown -197

246 Field Goal or Safety +177

 

The first turnover of the game will be

247 Fumble +150

248 Interception -140

249 No Turnovers in Game +1052

 

What will happen 1st in last 2 min of the 1st half

250 Touchdown +112

251 Field Goal or Safety +228

252 No score in last 2 minutes +240

 

Will 1st down in game happen on a pass or run

253 Pass Play -160

254 Run Play +140

 

The first offensive play of the game will be

255 Pass Play -120

256 Run Play +104

 

The longest score of the game will be

257 A Touchdown -160

258 A Field Goal +140

 

Will the final score differential be

259 Odd -120

260 Even +104

 

Player to score the first touchdown will have

261 Odd Number Jersey -300

262 Even Number Jersey +250

 

Player to score the last touchdown will have

263 Odd Number Jersey -300

264 Even Number Jersey +250

 

Player to score first in the game will have

265 Odd Number Jersey -500

266 Even Number Jersey +400

 

Which will be more

269 Longest field goal in game +280

270 Total points scored in game -340

 

Various Total Props

 

Total quarterback sacks made in game by both teams

117 Over 3.5 sacks -187

118 Under 3.5 sacks +167

 

Total number of kickoffs made by both teams

119 Over 10.5 kickoffs +122

120 Under 10.5 kickoffs -138

 

Total net rushing yards made by both teams

123 Over 207.5 rushing yards +110

124 Under 207.5 rushing yards -126

 

Total number of first downs made by both teams

125 Over 42.5 1st downs +115

126 Under 42.5 1st downs -131

 

Total number of lost fumbles made by both teams

129 Over 1.5 fumbles lost +134

130 Under 1.5 fumbles lost -150

 

Total number of pass interceptions by both teams

131 Over 2.5 pass interceptions +160

132 Under 2.5 pass interceptions -180

 

Total number of pass completions by both teams

133 Over 47.5 pass completions +130

134 Under 47.5 pass completions -146

 

Total number of blocked punts in the game

135 Over 0.5 blocked punts +720

136 Under 0.5 blocked punts -870

 

The longest touchdown scored in the game will be

139 Over 47.5 yards -113

140 Under 47.5 yards -103

 

Total net yards in the game

143 Over 709.5 yards +101

144 Under 709.5 yards -117

 

Distance of first made field goal of game

147 Over 34.5 yards -103

148 Under 34.5 yards -113

 

Largest lead by either team in the Game will be

149 Over 17.5 Points -150

150 Under 17.5 Points +130

 

Warm Up Props

 

The coin will land on:

101 Heads -103

102 Tails -103

 

Who will win the coin toss

103 NY Giants -103

104 New England Patriots -103

 

Team to receive the opening kickoff in the game:

105 NY Giants -105

106 New England Patriots -105

Edited January 25, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[12an]

I've put down a bet on the pats for -12, 1.971 (decimal odds). Not a lot of analysis, wanted the pats for under 2 tds and decent odds. What's you take on sides in this SB Dre? I'm also watching the O/U and i'ts been slowly moving upwards, waiting to make a move on the under if it goes up some more.

[Big John]

Player to score first in the game will have

265 Odd Number Jersey -500

266 Even Number Jersey +400

 

 

I am seeing that a good number of scoring players, including both kickers, have an odd-numbered jersey.

[Steeltown Dre]

I've put down a bet on the pats for -12, 1.971 (decimal odds). Not a lot of analysis, wanted the pats for under 2 tds and decent odds. What's you take on sides in this SB Dre? I'm also watching the O/U and i'ts been slowly moving upwards, waiting to make a move on the under if it goes up some more.

 

I'll be posting my detailed analysis of plays sometime today. I'm updating some tables I used as reference and I'll be basically creating an entry for it on my blog, and then I'll post the link. None of the tables will transfer here too well and I feel these tables are very important for you to see.

[Steeltown Dre]

I am seeing that a good number of scoring players, including both kickers, have an odd-numbered jersey.

 

Hence the heavy juice - Still, if someone is interested in playing this, it's easy enough to calculate fair juice to see if there is any value. Just tell me how many players who have scored a TD on each team (or kickers) have an even jersey vs. an odd jersey.

 

If, for instance, it was 85% have odd spamshirts, then the fair juice should be -567 to break even.

 

The way they have it now, -500 is equal to an 83% rate. If the % is +/- 5% of 83%, I'd say you don't really have much of advantage one way or another. But if chances that an odd numbered guy will score is closer to 90% or higher, there is some value here at -500....

[Steeltown Dre]

OK guys, I've spent the last day and a half making a several plays and still have some more work to do in terms of adding $ on top of one of those plays, shopping the next few days for even better prices. And then I have a few days to determine a couple potential plays and figure out if I will or will not make them.

 

At any rate, my post is large and contains good graphics I want you to see, so I'll just link straight to it. Hopefully you are in a mood to discuss both my post and provide your own plays and insight. Particularly, good prop bets that may correlate to a particuar angle of "thought" which possesses better value than a standard ATS/OU/ML play.

 

http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/

[12an]

I'm a little curious as to how you've arrived at your conclusion regarding the info on the ML-issue. I typically remembered that I placed a bet on the Ravens ML vs Pats. If I'm not mistaken, the Pats ML was 1.07 (decimal odds) and the spread was -21.5. Isn't this equal to a ML of -1300? Aren't the bookies just trying to adjust their prices to reflect a very shifty Pats-team?

 

However, it gave me some interesting things to think about. I want to look into this a little more. Do you know where I can find ML-history?

 

Another thing, what % hit 53, 53.5 and 54 of the total points scored? What is the better side?

Edited January 30, 2008 by 12an

[Steeltown Dre]

Good questions 12an. Here we go:

 

1. No books I saw even had ML options on that spread. Typically the ML option is waived when the spread gets astronomically high like that. If you were able to take Pats ML somewhere, I'm guessing you paid a pretty penny for it.

 

2. The way I have the ML info is using ML converters which are available online at several sites. Looking back on my system I keep track of all odds throughout the season. Here are some examples for you:

 

Week 12 Bal @ SD -9.5, SD ML was -417, Bal ML was +377

Week 12 Mia @ Pit -16, Pit ML was -1300, Mia ML was +950

Week 11 NE -14.5 @ Buf, NE ML was -1250, Buf ML was +900

Week 10 StL @ NO -11.5, NO ML was -570, StL ML was +520

Week 8 NYG -9.5 @ Mia in London, NYG ML was -455, Mia ML was +405

Week 7 Atl @ NO -9.5, NO ML was -400, Atl ML was +360

 

This more or less is similar to what I have said were they are MLing this game for a spread of around 8 to 9.5, but have inflated the actual spread to around 12.5, so that's 3 points you are missing out on.

 

I said: Typically on a 12 or 13 point fav, you would pay anywhere from -1100 to -1500.

 

This is accurate in that NE -14.5 was at -1250 in week 11. The -1500 may have been a little high, but it's what one of the ML converters produced. However, the -1100 is definitely accurate.

 

I also said: Most people still think +400 is good, and they don't realize that they should get +750 for a 12 point dog which is a huge difference.

 

Based on the above, I don't have a 12 or 12.5 point dog, I have a 11.5 point dog at +520 and I have a +14.5 dog at +900. So +750 seems pretty accurate for a +12/+12.5 point dog

 

I could go back and look for some more examples over the season but don't have the time right now. Essentially, I think the ML converters I used were pretty accurate for the most part, and while they may not have MLed this game for NE-8, it is no worse than NE-9/-9.5.

 

I think it's lined there for a few reasons:

 

1. The spread is inflated - if Pats were only -9, you may see more money on Pats. Maybe they want money on NYG at this point.

2. Many people take dog on the ML and they want to reduce their exposure (lower ML payouts) if that 5% chance (my number, not theirs) that the Giants do win comes through.

3. I am guessing it's not atypical to see them ML a Superbowl at a lower number than the spread. In other words, the ML and the spread do not correlate.

4. It just shows that there is some value on the NE ML vs. NE ATS. Nothing to make me say "Damn, did you see the ML, I can read right though this and Pats ML is the secret play". It's just telling me that if I want to take NE on the spread, I'll have to be comfortable laying 3+ more points than I really should.

 

Unfortunately I don't have a source for ML totals. Donbest had some archived spreads and I don't remember if they had MLs as well. None of my historical info contains MLs.

 

As for the total...

 

Since 92, there have been 5 SBs w/ totals of 51 or higher. Overs were 3-2. So nothing great there.

 

Regular season games w/ totals between (and including) 51 and 55, there have only been 57 games, so the sample size is VERY small (dates back to 89, and only 57 games).

 

Overall Overs went 22-35.

 

As far as key numbers, here are the final points scored and the % of the sample:

 

41 10.5%

50 7.0%

55 7.0%

65 7.0%

39 3.5%

62 3.5%

48 3.5%

46 3.5%

30 3.5%

37 3.5%

49 3.5%

75 3.5%

35 1.8%

45 1.8%

88 1.8%

38 1.8%

28 1.8%

19 1.8%

61 1.8%

80 1.8%

33 1.8%

69 1.8%

23 1.8%

63 1.8%

87 1.8%

40 1.8%

73 1.8%

42 1.8%

43 1.8%

51 1.8%

47 1.8%

77 1.8%

44 1.8%

59 1.8%

64 1.8%

 

So as you see, 41, 50 and 55 are the highest frequency. So having U 54 is basically the same as U 53.5 because 54 and 53 don't get hit at all here.

 

So we have to look at a larger sample, from totals from 45 to 60. Here's the result:

 

51 5.1%

41 4.8%

47 4.2%

37 4.2%

45 3.6%

44 3.5%

58 3.0%

43 2.9%

55 2.7%

40 2.6%

48 2.6%

35 2.4%

65 2.4%

59 2.4%

38 2.3%

61 2.1%

30 2.1%

53 2.0%

46 2.0%

34 2.0%

62 2.0%

50 1.8%

33 1.8%

29 1.7%

52 1.7%

42 1.7%

27 1.7%

54 1.5%

49 1.5%

36 1.5%

64 1.2%

31 1.2%

63 1.2%

57 1.2%

39 1.2%

56 1.1%

66 1.1%

68 1.1%

70 0.9%

19 0.9%

22 0.9%

23 0.9%

74 0.9%

26 0.9%

69 0.9%

67 0.8%

60 0.8%

73 0.6%

25 0.6%

32 0.6%

80 0.5%

72 0.5%

82 0.5%

28 0.5%

75 0.5%

71 0.5%

16 0.3%

77 0.3%

88 0.3%

79 0.3%

24 0.3%

17 0.3%

76 0.3%

15 0.3%

21 0.2%

84 0.2%

87 0.2%

20 0.2%

13 0.2%

90 0.2%

 

Here, 51 leads the bunch, whereas it was lower in the smaller sample. 53 is at 2%, 54 is at 1.5%. So you gain 1.5% by getting 54. Lets say you want to play the under and you have 53.5 for -110. You would get +EV if you buy to 54 for better than -117

 

Personally, I didn't have to buy to 54 at all, I was able to get 54 as a play number.

 

Again, totals should be discussed, but I am not riding nearly as hard on this total as I am ML. I'm confident on the ML, I'm leery on the total but making the play as the research shows this game should be lower scoring than the 1st meeting, the question will be if it's lower than 54 points or not.

Edited January 30, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Week 12 Bal @ SD -9.5, SD ML was -417, Bal ML was +377

Week 12 Mia @ Pit -16, Pit ML was -1300, Mia ML was +950

Week 11 NE -14.5 @ Buf, NE ML was -1250, Buf ML was +900

Week 10 StL @ NO -11.5, NO ML was -570, StL ML was +520

Week 8 NYG -9.5 @ Mia in London, NYG ML was -455, Mia ML was +405

Week 7 Atl @ NO -9.5, NO ML was -400, Atl ML was +360

 

I'll add a few more here:

 

Week 17 Dal @ Was -9, Was ML was -410, Dal ML was +370

Week 17 SF @ Cle -11.5, Cle ML was -570, SF ML was +520

Week 16 Dal -10.5 @ Car, Dal ML was -514, Car ML was +464

Week 16 Mia @ NE -21.5, NE ML was -1800, Car ML was +1400

Week 16 NYJ @ Ten -9, Ten ML was -400, NYJ ML was +360

Week 16 Oak @ Jac -13, Jac ML was -660, Oak ML was +600

Week 15 GB -9.5 @ STL, GB ML was -435, StL ML was +435

Week 15 NYJ @ NE -24, NE ML was -2400, NYJ ML was +1700

Week 15 Ind -10.5 @ Oak, Ind ML was -500, Oak ML was +450

Week 14 Dal -10.5 @ Det, Dal ML was -550, Det ML was +500

Week 4 KC @ SD -11.5, SD ML was -620, KC ML was +560

 

So as you can see, the ML does vary. And 12an for some of those large NE games, you would be laying -1800 or -2400 to take them ML. So you can get them for large games, some outlets won't release them, at least not at the same time as the rest of their lines, but you should find someone to take your bet, it's the juice that would kill you.

 

As you can see, during the season most 9.5 point favs were MLed at -440, -435 down to -400. The one -9 point game I grabbed was -410.

 

The best judge is this:

 

NE in the playoffs:

 

Div round Jac @ NE -11.5, NE ML was -570, Jac ML was +520

CC round SD @ NE -14.5, NE ML was -800, SD ML was +720

 

Now the SB, NYG @ NE -12, NE ML is close to -400 and NYG ML is +350 approx

 

+350 on a 12 point dog is pretty ludicris to a point of discouraging value bettors to even consider taking it. I think it's been saturated far too much. -400 on a 12 point fav is juicy, as this easily could be up towards the mid -600s on the conservative side.

 

Looking at it from a skeptic, could this be an issue of discouraging NYG ML and encouraging NE ML, because books think NYG win and don't want to pay? That's possible but unlikely. I think you have many people taking NYG ML, thinking that 3.5:1 returns are solid, and average bettors not wanting to take NE ML because they think "the juice is too high". So you have an more money on NYG ML vs NE ML.

 

Again, nothing is a sure thing, so I don't want to convince anyone to take NE ML who does not want to do so on their own.

 

What I want to show you is this:

 

If you like NE - the points, put some up on ML too.

If you like NYG + the points, put some on the ML at your own risk, knowing you are not getting your moneys worth on the ML.

 

In the end, the guy who wins more will do better, but the guy who wins and knows where to find value in the line will do the best.

[keggerz]

Dre you do one hell of a job

[Trots]

Dre you do one hell of a job

He's like Lex Luther. Imagine if he used these powers for the good of mankind...

[Steeltown Dre]

Thanks guys. I figure while I'm making money, might as well share the wealth. But not just to straight "play on my plays", more to share with you guys my logic and reasoning, and then to share my play. If you read the info and make a different play, as long as it's a winning one for you, I wish you luck. If you have info that contradicts my info or (alternatively) builds on one of my plays, by all means post it for all of us to see and I'm not a person stuck in stone - I like to process as much as I can before making my decision. If someone could convince me to take another play or has stats that show a particular prop has value, I'm down for digesting. Unfortunately at this stage, a lot of the props that had value earlier in the week and last week are now pretty drained of that value.

 

You are right, though, the amount of time I spend handicapping the NFL is pretty disgusting, however, the amount of $ I earn by doing so is quite a decent salary (that's the way I try to look at it). I try to do well enough during the NFL season that I don't have to bet on other sports much between March and August. But it would be nice to do something I'm so passionate about which makes a lot of money for me and actually helps mankind. Just haven't figured that one out...

[i_am_the_swammi]

Brandon Lang was on WIP SportsRadio this AM, and gave his play for the game, with a score. As many of you know, for what its worth, he is on a 15-0-2 spread-run over the last 17 Super Bowls.

 

His pick: Patriots 30, Giants 27

 

And he believes the Giants on the moneyline is an excellent opportunity for some real value.

 

A synopsis of his analysis:

 

Ever since the Philly game in mid November, although they have come out on top, the Pats have struggled, especially on defense. The Eagles moved up and down the field on the Pats, as did the Giants and and Jags in recent games. And these drives were in critical spots, and the defense offered little resistance. Even in late-season wins over the Dolphins and Jets, the Pats played relatively poorly in winning (but not covering).

 

Lang beleives the Giants are strongest where the pats are weakest. The Giant front-four should have little trouble getting pressure on Brady (as the Chargers did), and force some turnovers. The Giants should be able to run the ball effectively at spots throughout the game. The Giants should be able to dink-and-dunk against the slow LB corps of the pats, and take exactly what the Pats are willing to give: 6-8-10 yard pass plays. This should initially result in long drives to start the game, and as a result, wear down the defense over the course of the game.

 

While he still sees the Pats big-play ability being the difference in the game against a suspect Giants secondary, he put the chances of a Giant upset at just under 50%. He felt the only way the Giants do not cover the number is if they fall behind early, and become decidedly one-dimensional by having to abandon the run. However, he felt the defensive schemes being implemented by Spagnola (who runs a similar defense to the one Johnson in Philly used) will keep the Pats from being able to capitlaize on their big-play opportunities early, and thus, keep the game close, matching them drive-for-drive, and potentially putting them in a position to steal the game late.

 

FWIW, I tend to agree 100%.

[rattsass]

I have a few thoughts. First of all, thanks again Dre for being here for us this season. Had I strictly tailed your plays, I would have made money.

 

Very interesting situation you pointed out with the moneyline. People are getting shafted on the NYG ML, yet they seemingly can't get enough. Money still pouring in on the Giants ATS and ML.

 

And Brandon Lang (despite his remarkable SB record) has been stone cold down the stretch, so what he has to say about this game is of little interest to me - other than to make me think I am on the right track with the Patriots.

 

I understand why people want to bet the Giants in this game. Lots of reasons to do so. The Patriots have never blown out an opponent in any of their Superbowl wins. Every game has been down to the wire. But this is not the same Patriots team. This isn't Troy Brown, Deion Branch, and David Givens. This is Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.

 

And this isn't windblown freezing cold Foxborough. This is controlled climate, indoors, fast track.

 

Vegas set this line ridiculously high to start with, and the betting public has been pounding the Giants ever since. I do not have the numbers as to what % of money is coming in on the Giants, but with a 2.5 spread move, I have to assume the disparity is huge in the Giants favor. Does everyone out there really think that Vegas is going to get their clock cleaned on this - the last game of the NFL season? It is hard for me to imagine that will be the case.

 

I'm not sure what kind of play I will be making on this game, but if I had 50k laying around I would definitely be playing the Pats ML for an easy 10k. And I like the Pats -11.5 in this game as well. I sense two slaughters coming this Sunday. One on the playing field, and one for the gamblers that have bought into the Giants hook line and sinker.

[Steeltown Dre]

Great stuff guys - thanks for the insights into the Lang play and logic, and thanks ratt for your analysis.

 

To put it simply, Lang is a moron if he thinks NYG win this game close to 50% of the time. If this were true, a proper line for this game would be a "pickem" or a -1. I know the line isn't set for what "will happen", but is set for what is "perceived will happen" by the public before the start of the game.

 

However, he's already 0-1 because NE won earlier. So for him to be right on 50%, NYG would HAVE to win this game.

 

In addition, his logic plays right into the reason we're having such action on the ML. His quote was:

 

"the Giants on the moneyline is an excellent opportunity for some real value"

 

To me this shows he has no comprehension of line value whatsoever. If he really thinks NYG can win 50% of the time, then he should think NYG +12 should win 90% of the time at least, and be a much better value than NYG ML, especially w/ how saturated and low NYG ML has become.

 

Speaking of his play, here's his actual play (next post)

[Steeltown Dre]

Brandon Lang.

 

Here is the full analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

100 DIME

 

 

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

 

 

 

Free Pick - OVER

 

 

 

Final Score: 30-27 Patriots

 

 

 

 

 

7 FUN PROP BETS - prices and odds will of course vary

 

 

 

These are not rated selections and do not count toward my profit/loss statement. But so many guys like props I always release a few that I personally enjoy.

 

 

 

1) Coint Toss - Tails

 

2) National anthem : OVER 1:42

 

3) Burress MVP - 8/1

 

4) Jacobs MVP - 10/1

 

5) Burress First TD +800

 

6) Giants score first +155

 

7) Team to score first won't win game +180

 

 

 

 

 

Let me first start out by saying once again that this one single game has defined my career. It has made me who I am in this business.

 

 

 

You don’t go 15-0-2 with the 17 Super Bowl selections you have been asked to pick unless you understand the difference between this game and any other that these two teams have played all year.

 

 

 

I have been asked time and time again what my system is, my formula, my magic with picking this winner every time I have been asked to do it my entire life. My answer is always the same:

 

 

 

I just have a feel for this one game. I can't explain it nor will I ever try to. It is just something you would have to feel for yourself. 15-0-2 speaks for itself.

 

 

 

I clearly feel the Giants and double digits is great value and if things fall their way, they can shock the world Sunday. I truly believe that.

 

 

 

Now, I understand the easy play here would be to lay the number with the Patriots and leave it at that, but I just can't do that.

 

 

 

I didn't get to 15-0-2 for my career in this game without knowing when the underdog is the play and I am 100% confident the dog in this game is the play.

 

 

 

To have a streak of 15 in a row, to have never lost this game, you have got to know when the dog is the play and on Sunday, this is not only a dog but a live one at that.

 

 

 

So without further delay, enjoy my analysis of my 16th straight Super Bowl winner. I had fun writing it, that is for sure.

 

 

 

 

 

100 DIME

 

 

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

 

 

 

Free Pick - OVER

 

 

 

Final Score: 30-27 Patriots

 

 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants shocked the world today.

 

 

 

Let me first take you back in time to a game that really made the Giants the play here for me and it wasn't the first meeting between these two.

 

 

 

The Patriots had just come out of their bye week after beating the Colts the week before and went to Buffalo.

 

 

 

They destroyed the Bills 56-10 in as big domination as I have ever seen and I truly believe that was the highlight of their perfection as a team.

 

 

 

In other words, that was the time they were playing their absolute best. I mean, best.

 

 

 

Here came the Eagles off their bye week, 2 solid weeks to prepare with a back up QB in A.J. Feeley and they flat out punched the bully in the mouth.

 

 

 

Feeley threw a pick six on the 3rd play of the game and everyone thought the route was on.

 

 

 

Not so fast. Eagles came right back on a 14 play drive covering 77 yards taking 7 minutes off the clock to tie it up at 7 and the game was on.

 

 

 

They attacked the Patriots on both sides of the ball, all night long and didn’t sit back like everyone else and put themselves in a position to win.

 

 

 

They got the ball on their own 8 yard line, just over 7 minutes to go down 31-28 and went right through New England like a knife through melted butter.

 

 

 

It took 7 plays to get to the Patriots 29 yard line and they faced a 2nd and 4 when Feely got impatient and showed why he is a backup.

 

 

 

He forced a throw into the end zone and the interception ended it.

 

 

 

What I took from that game is the Patriots were vulnerable to a team that wasn't afraid to come after them.

 

 

 

Seriously, A.J Feeley was 27 of 42 for 336 yards and even with the 3 interceptions they received the Patriots struggled to beat them at home.

 

 

 

I fully expect the Giants to again borrow from the Eagles gameplan and Ravens for that matter and come after the Patriots even harder than the first meeting.

 

 

 

Coughlin knows Belichick having coached with him at New York on Parcells staff and that knowledge is invaluable at this level.

 

 

 

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo not only had 8 years under his belt with Jimmy Johnson of the Eagles but has 2 weeks to prepare for round 2.

 

 

 

People, I sat at home last week and watched the first meeting between these 2 over 6 times. Every play and I kept asking myself the same question over and over.

 

 

 

"Can New England blow this team out."

 

 

 

I just don't see it. The Giants came away from that first game with hope and confidence and in a game as big as this, not being afraid of the big bad wolf is a good thing.

 

 

 

New England is limping to the finish line. I mean limping and anybody out there who thinks they aren't is in denial.

 

 

 

They should have lost to the Eagles and the Ravens. No doubt about it. I know they didn't, but they are a blink of an eye from being 16-2.

 

 

 

Do we forget they struggled against the Jets 20-10 at home and the Dolphins went into Gillette and held them scoreless the last 35 minutes of the game?

 

 

 

Patriots had 2 weeks to prepare for the Jaguars and couldn't stop them. The Chargers, yes, the Chargers, with a one legged QB, a one footed all pro tight end and no LT had them on the ropes.

 

 

 

Eli Manning and offensive coordinator Kevin Gillbride are as in sync as any two guys I have seen. It was magic what they did in Green Bay.

 

 

 

Eli has finally got it and if you don't think he is like a kid in a candy store ready to attack this New England defense again, the one he threw 4 touchdowns against, you are crazy.

 

 

 

In my opinion, 3 things have to happen for the Giants to shock the world and win this game.

 

 

 

First, they must get to Brady with their front four. They have to win that battle. Secondly, they must win the turnover battle. Thirdly, they have to out rush New England.

 

 

 

I am as confident as I have ever been in handicapping this Super Bowl that if they accomplish those 3 things, they are your champions on Sunday.

 

 

 

However, those are 3 very tough things to do against an 18-0 New England team that has found ways to win every game this year.

 

 

 

Bottom line is this folks. I didn't get to 15-0-2 in this game by taking the easy way out and playing the favorite. Nope, my streak has been kept alive by finding the underdog.

 

 

 

The Giants, much like the Panthers and Eagles before them, is the play today.

 

 

 

I really believe the Giants will have a shot down the stretch to win this game outright. I really do. Whether they actually pull it off we will have to wait and see.

 

 

 

Their offense went up and down the field in the first meeting and scored more points on the Patriots than anybody this entire year.

 

 

 

I will gladly take the points and call for the Giants to at least get 27 points in the game and like I said, it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled off the miracle.

 

 

 

But at the end of the day, I look for the Patriots to do what they did in their two previous Super Bowls as the favorite, win but don't cover.

 

 

 

FINAL SCORE

 

 

 

Patriots 30-27

[Steeltown Dre]

Dr. Bob Super Bowl Analysis

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

New England (-12) 37 New York Giants 20

The line on this game opened with the Patriots as a 14 point favorite and quickly went down to 12 points. Apparently, New England ’s lack of recent pointspread success (5 straight spread losses and 2-8 ATS after starting the season 8-0 ATS), combined with the Giants’ 10 consecutive wins away from home, have generated a lot of interest in betting on the big underdog in this game. The question is if that interest in taking the surging Giants plus the 12 points is prudent. Let’s start by finding a fair line for this game.

 

New England Offense versus New York Defense

The Patriots’ offense is one of the best in NFL history, averaging 409 yards at 6.3 yards per play and 35.6 points per game. Running back Laurence Maroney leads a rushing attack that averaged a solid 4.4 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr to an average team) and Tom Brady has averaged an incredible 7.7 yards per pass play despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow only 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Patriots averaged 6.3 yards per play with Brady in the game – against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average offensive unit. Presented with the task of slowing that offense down is a Giants’ defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl since week 2 and has been good against both the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would averaged 4.3 ypr) and against the pass (5.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average defense). I excluded the Giants’ week 1 game against Dallas because Michael Strahan and cornerback Sam Madison did not start. Overall, the Giants stop unit rates at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), which is not as good as New England ’s +1.2 yppl offensive rating. New England’s attack looked unstoppable early in the season, but slowed down some as they faced tougher defenses and played in worse weather in the second half of the season and the playoffs. Having this game in a domed stadium will most likely bring out the best in Tom Brady, who has been 1.0 yards per pass play better in domed stadiums than he’s been overall in his career. Without wind and cold weather to affect Brady I expect the Patriots to move the ball easier than they did in their week 17 contest at New York in which they averaged 6.1 yppl and scored 38 points. New York ’s great pass rush (3.1 sacks per game since week 2) only got to Brady 1 time and the Giants’ questionable secondary simply doesn’t match up with the Patriots’ stable of great receivers. Brady averaged 8.1 yppp in that game and I expect New England ’s running attack to be better in this game than it was in the first meeting (just 48 yard at 2.2 ypr).

 

New York Offense versus New England Defense

The Giants’ offense and Eli Manning are getting a lot of praise heading into this game, but New York was only 0.1 yards per play better than average this season (5.2 yppl with Manning in the game, against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and that unit was no better at moving the ball in their 3 playoffs games. New York averaged only 4.9 yppl in road wins over Tampa Bay , Dallas , and Green Bay – teams that would combine to allow 4.8 yppl at home against an average team. The difference in the post-season for the Giants was the ZERO offensive turnovers in those 3 victories, which is more random good luck than anything else. It is not likely that the Giants will continue to avoid turnovers and they are likely to turn it over at a normal rate in this game despite their spotless turnover number in the playoffs (their one fumble was a fumble by a defensive player on an interception return). After all, fumbles are 90% random in the NFL and Eli Manning has been one of the most interception prone quarterbacks in the NFL in recent seasons and has thrown 20 picks this season. New York has a good rushing attack (4.6 ypr against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr) and the Giants should have success running the football against a Patriots’ defense that allowed 4.4 ypr this season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team. However, Manning’s season numbers (and his career numbers) are worse than average (5.7 yards per pass play this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and New England is good defending the pass (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team), so Manning should struggle in this game despite his recent improved play. Manning did have a very good game in the Giants’ close 35-38 loss to the Patriots in week 17 (7.2 yppp) but one game does not outweigh a season of mediocrity and Patriots’ coach Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare his defense and fix the problems that hurt them in the earlier meeting. Overall, New England’s defense (0.3 yppl better than average) has a slight edge over New York ’s offense (0.1 yppl better than average), but the Giants should move the ball at a decent clip in the perfect conditions inside the dome in Arizona .

 

Math Model Projection

Overall my math model projects New England to gain 374 yards at 6.0 yppl to New York ’s 317 yards at 5.3 yppl with Manning throwing 1.05 interceptions to Brady’s 0.72 picks. The stats projected for this game, which also include projected fumbles, penalties and special teams, would yield a line of New England by 5.9 points with a total score of 46.0 points under normal circumstances. However, New England is not a normal team. The Patriots turn yards into points much better than any other team because they’re so good when they get in scoring territory. If New England were a normal team their stats (i.e. yardage, yards per play, turnovers, penalties, special teams, etc) would equate to a scoring margin of +12.8 points per game but the Patriots out-scored their opponents by 18.6 points per game (35.6 to 17.0) this season. Most of the time the difference between a teams actual scoring margin and their projected scoring margin based on their stats is nothing more than random variance, but that is not the case with a few teams (Indianapolis is another team that out-plays their stats) and I believe that New England’s better than forecasted scoring margin is due to Tom Brady’s efficiency in the red-zone rather than random variance (New England has always out-played their stats with Brady at quarterback). If New England is indeed 5.8 points per game better than what their stats suggest (and New York continues to be 0.1 points better than their stats) then we get Patriots by 11.6 points instead of by 5.9 points. Most of the Patriots additional scoring margin comes from the offensive side of the football and comparing both teams total points per game with what is expected from their stats shows that this game should be 5.4 points higher scoring than my math model projects – which gives us a projected total of 51.4 points instead of 46.0 points. So, my math prediction is New England by 11.6 points with a total of 51.4 points.

 

Super Bowl Math

The Super Bowl cannot be looked at the same as other games. Unlike the regular season, when teams in control often relax, teams on the verge of a Super Bowl championship tend to maintain their high intensity level. At the same time, the spirits of the trailing team diminish as their hopes of a championship are dashed. The past Super Bowls, and the NFL and AFL Championship games that preceded the first Super Bowl, have long had a history of blowout wins. The winning team in the Super Bowl has won by 14 points or more 21 times in 41 games and there were 7 blowout wins of 14 points or more in the 12 NFL Championship games prior to the inaugural Super Bowl in 1967. The oddsmakers are aware of that trend and usually make the line on the Super Bowl higher than it would be under normal circumstances to adjust for the blowout phenomenon, which is why they opened the line on this game at 14 points. Blowouts haven’t been as prevalent in recent years (due to more competitive match-ups), but the lines have still had a tendency to be higher than they would be in a regular season match-up between the same teams.

 

Each year I calculate an equation based on the fair line for each Super Bowl and the actual Super Bowl margin of victory and I use that equation to forecast a “Super Bowl margin of victory” that is based on what the line on each Super Bowl game would be under normal circumstances. I use the mathematically fair line for all Super Bowls since 1987 (based on my math projections on the game) and I use the actual pointspread for all Super Bowls from the AFL-NFL merger in Super Bowl 4 through Super Bowl 21 in 1987 (the adjusting of the Super Bowl spreads to higher numbers didn’t actually start until the 90’s so using the actual lines in earlier games is fair). The equation I come up with certainly suggests that teams that are clearly better should certainly be favored by more points in the Super Bowl than they would be favored by under normal circumstances and the higher the fair line is the more the adjustment should be. If the fair line on this game under normal circumstances is New England by 11.6 points then the equation forecasts an average win of 21.6 points if the Patriots win the game. The same equation predicts an average win of just 3.6 points if the Giants happen to win. The next step is to calculate the chance that each team has of winning straight up, which depends on more than simply what the fair line is since every team has a different variance in their results (i.e. some or more consistent in their performance than others).

 

New England was unbeaten, but they got away with a few mediocre performances that would lead to a loss if the Giants played one of their better games. To incorporate variance into finding a fair line and the chance that each team has of winning straight up I use a matrix of game ratings for each team. For each team I assign a game rating that is based on each team’s statistics, the level of opponent they faced and whether the game was home, road or neutral (in the case of New York’s game against Miami in London). I used all 18 games for New England and I disregarded New York ’s game rating from their week 1 loss at Dallas when two defensive starters didn’t start. I now have 18 game ratings for each team and I can use those individual game ratings to form an 18 by 18 matrix with 324 cells that correspond to potential results for this game. I can find the median cell value to find what the pointspread should be and also calculate the percentage of cells that have New York with a higher game rating than New England , which would represent the Giants’ chance of an upset. The median cell was 12 ½ points and New York had a higher game rating in 18.2% of the cells. That number is in line with the posted odds for the Giants to win this game, as an 18.2% chance of winning corresponds to odds of 4.50 to 1 and the current line at Pinnacle is -4.65 for the Pats to win and +4.25 for the Giants.

 

New England has an 81.8% chance of winning this game and their average margin of victory if they win is 21.6 points based on the Super Bowl margin of victory formula I discussed above. The Giants have an 18.2% chance of winning and they’d be expected to win by only 3.6 points if they win. The resulting math projects an average margin of New England by 17 points (.818 x 21.6 - .182 x 3.6 = 17.0).

 

Based on the 37 past Super Bowls since the NFL-AFL merger a team that would be favored by 11.6 points in a regular season game should be favored to win by 17 points in the Super Bowl if the distribution of past Super Bowl margins is representative of future Super Bowl games. Of course, having a sample size of just 37 Super Bowls does not give us a big enough sample size to make the assumption that future Super Bowls will have the same distribution of margins of victory as past Super Bowls have had. With a limited sample size the projection of a 17 point win is likely too high, although it is certainly possible that future Super Bowl margins will have a similar distribution as in the past (especially given that NFL Championship games prior to the Super Bowl had a similar pattern). The other extreme is that the phenomenon of blowout wins in the Super Bowl is due simply to chance and that the distribution of Super Bowl results is actually the same as in the regular season. If that were the case then New England by 11 ½ points would be the fair line on this game, which still gives the Patriots close to a 50% chance of covering even if the pattern of blowouts in Super Bowls is simply random variance (and the median cell of the matrix makes them a 12 ½ point choice with a slightly better than 50% chance of covering). There is enough statistical evidence to suggest that Super Bowls do have a somewhat higher variance of margin of victory than regular season games do but not enough evidence to suggest that future Super Bowls will have the same distribution as past Super Bowls. The true answer of what the line should be lies somewhere in between the two extremes and I have come up with a realistic equation for converting regular season margins into Super Bowl margins. I will not describe that process in detail for you, but a team that would be favored by 11 ½ points in the regular season should be favored by 14 points in the Super Bowl – which is where this line opened in the first place.

 

My analysis suggests that the opening line of New England by 14 points is a fair line for a Super Bowl meeting between these two teams even though 11 ½ points would be a fair line in a regular season game. If the fair line is 14 points then New England is a profitable 54.5% play at -12 points (56.3% at -11 ½) and I’ll lean with New England a -13 ½ points or less, consider New England a Strong Opinion at -11 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets down to -10. I’m inclined to believe that the tendency of blowouts by superior teams in past Super Bowls and Championship games is real and will continue. If that is the case then Patriots by 17 points would be the most likely outcome.

 

Super Bowl Angles

Super Bowl favorites of more than 7 points are 7-3-1 ATS and teams with a win-loss percentage that is at least .080 higher than their opponent (i.e. more than 1 game better in regular season win-loss record) are 12-5-1 ATS since the AFL-NFL merger, which coincides with the past tendency of clearly superior teams to win by big margins.

 

Favoring the Giants is the fact that teams on a 3 game or more pointspread win streak are 10-3-2 ATS since 1981 when not facing a team that is also on a 3 game or more spread win streak.

 

Over/Under

My math projected a total score of 51 ½ points for this game but Super Bowls tend to be higher scoring, especially when the teams had an extra week off to game plan. Since 1981 there have been 7 Super Bowls that were played the week following the conference championship games and those 7 games averaged 43.1 points while the 20 Super Bowls since 1981 in which the game was played two weeks after the championship games averaged 53.0 points. I also have calculated an equation that takes a predicted total and turns it into a Super Bowl total based on the tendency for higher scoring games in the Super Bowl. A game that would total 51 ½ points if it were a regular season game would result in a Super Bowl total of 59 points if past Super Bowl totals are representative of future Super Bowl totals. Once again, there is certainly a good chance that high scoring games in past Super Bowls are just a fluke but with this game being played indoors in perfect conditions I expect a high scoring game. I will lean with the Over in this game at 55 points or less.

 

Super Bowl Props

There were no Super Bowl Props that grabbed my attention, but I'll email everyone later in the week if I find any that do.

[Steeltown Dre]

What I love is Lang gives his prop bets he suggests to take, and then says:

 

"Let me first start out by saying once again that this one single game has defined my career."

 

Yet he's betting on the national anthem and the coin toss!

 

And check out his other plays:

 

3) Burress MVP - 8/1

 

4) Jacobs MVP - 10/1

 

5) Burress First TD +800

 

6) Giants score first +155

 

7) Team to score first won't win game +180

 

So he is betting NYG scores first but does not win the game, yet he's placing bets on 2 NYG players getting the MVP?????

 

Please tell me when has a player on the losing team won the MVP? This guy is hilarious, but it's good to hear his square logic...

[Steeltown Dre]

Here came the Eagles off their bye week, 2 solid weeks to prepare with a back up QB in A.J. Feeley and they flat out punched the bully in the mouth.

 

That was from Lang. Damn man - Philly had a bye in week 5 - they played NE the week after playing Mia.

 

This guy sells his plays to thousands (at least) and screws up the write up for the SB.

 

"that this one single game has defined my career. It has made me who I am in this business."

 

Yes, it has defined you as someone who doesn't care if his clients win or lose, because you're still making money, and you don't know enough about handicapping to understand value or publishing an accurate writeup. You will also go down as one of the most famous "bad streak" cappers of all time. When you go cold, you went ice cold like that frozen caveman, cold as hell for quite some time.

[rattsass]

That was from Lang. Damn man - Philly had a bye in week 5 - they played NE the week after playing Mia.

 

This guy sells his plays to thousands (at least) and screws up the write up for the SB.

 

"that this one single game has defined my career. It has made me who I am in this business."

 

Yes, it has defined you as someone who doesn't care if his clients win or lose, because you're still making money, and you don't know enough about handicapping to understand value or publishing an accurate writeup. You will also go down as one of the most famous "bad streak" cappers of all time. When you go cold, you went ice cold like that frozen caveman, cold as hell for quite some time.

LMAO

[keggerz]

Thanks guys. I figure while I'm making money, might as well share the wealth. But not just to straight "play on my plays", more to share with you guys my logic and reasoning, and then to share my play. If you read the info and make a different play, as long as it's a winning one for you, I wish you luck. If you have info that contradicts my info or (alternatively) builds on one of my plays, by all means post it for all of us to see and I'm not a person stuck in stone - I like to process as much as I can before making my decision. If someone could convince me to take another play or has stats that show a particular prop has value, I'm down for digesting. Unfortunately at this stage, a lot of the props that had value earlier in the week and last week are now pretty drained of that value.

 

You are right, though, the amount of time I spend handicapping the NFL is pretty disgusting, however, the amount of $ I earn by doing so is quite a decent salary (that's the way I try to look at it). I try to do well enough during the NFL season that I don't have to bet on other sports much between March and August. But it would be nice to do something I'm so passionate about which makes a lot of money for me and actually helps mankind. Just haven't figured that one out...

hopefully that system i am working on that we talked about will be ready for next yr.

[Steeltown Dre]

Reupped on the ML at -400. Decided to avoid spreads this one. I feel most strongly about the ML. I wouldn't mind having NYG + points as a bookend, but I feel the spread is pretty tight and while the liklihood in my mind is that NE has a stronger chance of blowing NYG out than NYG keeping it close, I think it's 95% (in my mind) that NE wins straight up. So I'll stick w/ the ML, love the -400, and tack more on at that price.

 

Keggers - good luck w/ that system and hit me up if you need anything this summer.

 

Lets hear your plays and props for this last NFL playoff action of the football season. And of course, good luck and hope we all walk out on top.