Super Bowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[rattsass]

Lets hear your plays and props for this last NFL playoff action of the football season. And of course, good luck and hope we all walk out on top.

Don't have enough $$ to make a ML bet worthwhile so I bit the bullet - took the Pats -11.5. Also teased NE and over with some other plays. I hate laying the big chalk, but I like my chances anyway. Good luck to all.

[Steeltown Dre]

Here's a game writeup from Teddy Covers. Check out some of his prop bets for ideas - they are at the very bottom:

 

T.Covers

 

2/3/08 NFL New England Over 54 -110 (102)

 

ANALYSIS: To say the Patriots offense was adversely affected by the weather late in the season is something of an understatement. Week 11 against Buffalo was cold, windy and snowy. Week 12 against Philly was played in the cold. Week 13 against Baltimore was cold and windy. Week 14 against Pittsburgh was cold. Week 15 against the Jets was cold, rainy and windy. Week 16 against Miami was cold and rainy. Week 17 against the Giants was cold and damp. Their first playoff game against Jacksonville was cold. Their second playoff game, against San Diego, was even colder, and very windy. Quite simply, the Pats have played nine consecutive bad weather games. In the nine games that they played before the northeast weather turned sour, they scored 38, 38, 38, 34, 34, 48, 49, 52 and 24 points, just shy of 40 points per game. There will be no adverse weather conditions to worry about in Arizona on Sunday.

When the Pats played the Giants back in Week 17, they had nine ‘meaningful’ drives in the first meeting between these two teams (discounting the two ‘take a knee possessions, one before halftime, the other at the end of the game), and they scored on seven of those drives. We can fully expect New England to score five touchdowns or more in this game – this is the highest scoring offense in NFL history, facing a banged up defense that they torched just a few weeks ago.

 

The question here is whether the Giants are going to be capable of putting up some points of their own, enough to send this game Over the already inflated total. I believe the Giants will be able to put up enough. Their red zone offensive execution has been stellar, thanks to their offensive balance, while the Patriots defense has proven to be a tad bit vulnerable down the stretch.

 

That being said I’ve made two proposition wagers to hedge on the Giants ability to score just a bit. First, I bet New England Over their team total (33 is the prevailing number), expecting the Pats to take care of business offensively. Second, I bet the total number of touchdowns Over 6, a bet with two advantages. First, we can ‘push’ a 28-14 final that goes Under the total, not worrying about field goal kickers accuracy vs. fourth down conversion attempts. Second, we can cash when others lose on the Over 54 (the current prevailing number; 53.5’s still out there as I write this on Wednesday), given a 31-21 type of final score. This is not a bet to wait on – I strongly recommend that you make this wager ASAP, as the total is sure to rise by gameday. Take the Over.

 

 

 

2/3/08 NFL New England -12 (102)

 

ANALYSIS: There are two schools of thought about this Super Bowl, as legitimate arguments can be made for both sides here. As any professional bettor will tell you, the Super Bowl is NOT a time to step up your side and total wagers. Those who are looking for more action than a normal game will find ample opportunities for a profitable result in my Super Bowl props report.

The case for the Giants goes as follows: First, New England might be a great team, but they sure aren’t covering pointspreads, just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games, laying double digits each and every time. Second, the Giants proved that they are capable of hanging with New England back in Week 17, a three point loss that was tight throughout. The G-men won’t be intimidated by the Pats. Third, the Giants aren’t getting enough respect from the betting public, despite winning on the road at Dallas and Green Bay to get here. This team has won ten straight games away from home, an accomplishment that may never be repeated in a single season, and they have been playing at a Super Bowl caliber level dating back to late December.

 

I think those are all valid points. That being said, my money is on New England this Sunday. Here’s why:

 

The Patriots are the best football team that I’ve seen in my lifetime. This is their defining moment, their chance to clinch history, to clinch immortality. We KNOW that the Patriots are going to bring their ‘A’ game this week, and their ‘A’ game is as good as any in NFL history. That, folks, is something I’m not willing to stand in front of.

 

The Giants have little chance to slow down New England’s record setting attack. The Pats had nine ‘meaningful’ drives in the first meeting between these two teams (discounting the two ‘take a knee possessions, one before halftime, the other at the end of the game), and they scored on seven of those drives. The Patriots had the highest scoring offense in NFL history. The Giants secondary is banged up. After playing in adverse weather conditions repeatedly in the last six weeks, the weather in Arizona will be just fine for the Pats offense. And New England, a veteran team that has been to three previous Super Bowls this decade, is well prepared for the rigors and intensity of football’s biggest stage.

 

The Giants were playing with a boatload of momentum throughout the NFC Playoffs. We saw a similar story in the World Series this past year. Colorado was the hottest team in the world, but they were forced to sit for a week after winning the NLCS. They couldn’t regain that momentum and were swept out of the World Series. Ohio State had an eight week layoff before the BCS championship game in college football, two full weeks longer than their opponent. It showed. The two week layoff here does not help the G-men one iota, whereas Bill Belichick with an extra week to prepare is a dangerous thing for Giants supporters.

 

There is one additional factor favoring New England worth discussing – turnovers. The Giants just ran through the NFC playoffs without committing a single turnover. No fumbles, no interceptions, nada. Well, Eli Manning threw 20 interceptions this season, more than twice as many as Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw put the ball on the ground seven times between them. And they’ll be facing a defense that does an extraordinary job at confusing quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. New England finished the regular season with a +16 turnover margin, while the Giants finished at -9. Expect that differential to come into play in the Super Bowl, turning what might have been a close game into a rout. Take the Patriots.

 

Many of the props that I’m recommending in this report are related in some way to my side and total wagers. I encourage you to read my game and total write-up before reading the prop bets in this report. I made two prop recommendations with my Total report that are not included in this write-up. The lines listed below are from my own personal wagers, both here in Las Vegas and offshore. Lines vary dramatically from sportsbook to sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best current number.

 

Tom Brady: Total Pass Attempts Over 35.5

The Patriots are the masters at ‘taking what the defense will give them’ and the Giants are certain to defend against the deep pass. Expect lots of dink and dunk from Brady on Sunday, which equals an Over bet on his total number of pass attempts.

 

Wes Welker Total Receptions Over 7

The Giants depth in the secondary will be tested early and often. Welker caught more passes than anyone in the NFL this year, and should be open all day in the slot. Lots of pass attempts as described above means lots of receptions for Welker.

 

Kevin Faulk Total Receiving Yards Over 32.5

Faulk is Brady’s checkdown receiver out of the backfield, when the downfield receivers are covered. He’s a vastly underrated component of this offense, a big play threat when he gets the football in his hands. In the Patriots last three games, he’s caught 21 passes for 182 yards.

 

Total Patriots Players to Catch a Pass Over 6.5

This prop is 16-2 through the Patriots first 18 games. Lay the extra juice, don’t bet Over 7, and enjoy every pass that Heath Evans, Kyle Brady, Laurence Maroney or Mike Vrabel catches after Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, Watson and Faulk have gotten theirs.

 

Brandon Jacobs +23.5 rushing yards vs. Laurence Maroney

Maroney got a ton of carries and yardage late in the season in bad weather games, but he was a non-factor in better weather conditions earlier in the season. The Giants offensive gameplan will emphasize the run, looking to keep the Patriots offense off the field as much as possible.

 

Laurence Maroney Under 20.5 carries

Maroney had three games all season with more than 20 carries. All three games were in bad weather conditions, when Brady and the passing game were adversely affected.

 

Giants +12.5 rushing yards vs Patriots

The Pats will come out throwing; the Giants will come out running. ‘Nuff said.

 

Giants to have more penalty yards

The Pats will come out throwing, which inevitably means a pass interference call or two, sooner or later. New England ranked in the top quartile of the league in fewest penalties and penalty yards. The veteran Pats have been here before, which should help with false start/offsides penalties due to early game jitters.

 

Giants to have the longer kickoff return.

Based on the pointspread and the total alone, we can project New England to have more kickoffs than the G-men, giving the Giants a better chance to get said return. In the first meeting, the Giants returned eight kicks, compared to four for the Pats, a disparity that should repeat itself on Sunday. And let’s not forget that the Giants returned a kick for a touchdown in the first meeting, with the better return game all year.

 

Patriots to have the longer punt return.

The Patriots punted 49 times in their 18 games. Eight were fair catches, six were touchbacks, leaving a grand total of less than two returnable punt attempts per game. The Giants, on the other hand, saw Jeff Feagles punt 86 times this year, including 15 in their three previous playoff games. Quite simply, the Pats should have a lot more punt return attempts, giving us substantial value with this prop

[Gdawg]

Guys, terrific stuff as always. By far my favorite thread here on The Huddle, a real pleasure hanging out with you all. Looking forward to doing it all over again next season!

 

Just checking in to wish everyone good luck today. Go get 'em

 

I'll probably toss a little down on the Pats, but not certain. Incidentally Root's millionaire is NE.

[whomper]

Im a sucker for a prop and superbowl sunday is prop heaven..Heres what I have

 

Player to score the first touchdown in the game - Ben Watson +1000

 

Player to score the first touchdown in the game - Wes Welker +700

 

Player to score NY Giants first TD in the game - Amani Toomer +450

 

Player to score NE Patriots first TD n the game - Kevin Faulk +800

 

Total passing yards made by Eli Manning - Over 215½ passing yrds -145

 

Team to have the most penalty yards in the game - New York Giants -145

 

Will New York Giants get a rushing TD in game - Yes -155

 

Total sacks recorded by Giants defense will be - Over 1 sacks -300

 

Burress vs Moss 1st half longest pass reception - Randy Moss -150

 

Laurence Maroney - Total pass receiving yrds by Laurence Maroney - Over 8 receiving yrds +115

 

Total pass receptions made by Randy Moss - Over 5½ pass receptions -130

 

Total pass receiving yards made by Randy Moss - Over 92½ receiving yrds +100

 

Ahmad Bradshaw Longest Rush in game - Over 10½ yards -125

 

Total rushing yards made by Brandon Jacobs - Over 55½ rushing yrds -180

 

Total pass receptions made by Plaxico Burress - Over 4½ pass receptions -150

 

The longest score of the game will be - A Touchdown -150

 

Will the coin land on - Heads -115

 

Player to score the first touchd Laurence Maroney

[Gdawg]

Steve Budin

 

Steven Budin-CEO

SUPER BOWL PICK

100 DIME RELEASE

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

[TDFFFreak]

I'm not much of a bettor outside of when in Vegas in Football season, but a good friend of mine, who has been involved in sports betting for a while and has an impressive track record, likes the Pats -12. So that's what I have gone with. Take for the little that it's worth. Of course to any of you this guy means nothing. I just know him as scary smart and is great with the research and numbers.

Edited February 3, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[12an]

Hey Dre, I really appreciate the time you took to explain the ML-situation. I understand the logic behind it a lot better and I'm thinking about putting som money on pats ML.

[Steeltown Dre]

Hey Dre, I really appreciate the time you took to explain the ML-situation. I understand the logic behind it a lot better and I'm thinking about putting som money on pats ML.

 

No problem. Even now, we're seeing a larger % of bets that have come in on NYG ML than NE ML in the last 24 hrs. The price is what makes it such a good bet. If it was -700, I wouldn't like it nearly as much.

 

Right now, it's the best bet I'm seeing. Good luck to us tonight!

[Menudo]

I put some decent change on 'Tails' :yah:

 

I also put a small bet on Heath Evans scoring the first TD at 20/1 - when they had it at the one, I was getting excited, but, they gave it to Maroney

 

I also put a small bet on Evans scoring first in the 2nd half

 

I took the ML on the Giants

 

I took the Giants +12.5

 

After winning the tails bet, the rest would just be 'gravy' if I win any of them.

[Steeltown Dre]

Reupped on the ML at -400. Decided to avoid spreads this one. I feel most strongly about the ML. I wouldn't mind having NYG + points as a bookend, but I feel the spread is pretty tight and while the liklihood in my mind is that NE has a stronger chance of blowing NYG out than NYG keeping it close, I think it's 95% (in my mind) that NE wins straight up. So I'll stick w/ the ML, love the -400, and tack more on at that price.

 

Well, this game played out like I thought it could, except for NYG's final drive. I figured this would be much lower scoring than the first meeting, and it was. So the under was the right side. I figured NE would most likely be up in the 4th, maybe by a little, maybe by a lot, but not by enough to make me want to take NE on the spread. What I didn't figure would happen was Eli leading the Giants 70+ yards in the 4th for a go ahead TD, and that spectacular throw and catch w/ Tyree. I just didn't see that coming. I figured it would end in typical Pats fashion, w/ an interception of a QB who was trying to force a ball. We almost had it, but I forget the NE DB who tipped the ball instead of catching the INT along the sideline.

 

Bets I contemplated but didn't take: NYG + points as a bookend, and largest lead less than 18 points. Both would have been easy winners. The fact that NYG won the game didn't mean that NE ML was a bad bet. It was the right play if you thought NE most likely would win. NYG ML, although they did win, was a worse play than NYG + points. Fortunately, it came through for NYG bettors, so they don't have to realize the framework of value betting, but in the long run, it will bite you big in the ass if you take watered down dog MLs instead of the points.

 

So, we end the season on a sour note. I eventually put up the equivalent of a total single weekend's worth of plays on that one NE ML. So I lost a weekend's worth of $, as if I went 0-5 or any other "0"fer. The under was such a small component that I still won the play, and mentally felt good about realizing the way the game would play out, but didn't get rewarded for that in my account.

 

I hope no one lost their shirt too bad w/ this game. I said from the get go:

 

I'm going heavy on NE ML. I really think this is the smartest play going. I know it could lose, that's why you don't wager more than you are willing to lose. But I like it to win.

 

My final play for now is putting some on the Under 54. Again, not crazy about it, but think it has a shot.

 

The other play I have not started playing, and will continue to shop around. What I'm thinking:

 

I'm coming back w/ a much less on largest lead under 18 prop. Yes you can't bet as much on these props, so I'm planning on putting this in at a couple of shops.

 

But I do apologize if this made anyone lose more than they wanted to lose. A loss is a loss and it's a crappy way to end an otherwise great season. However, my personal motto is to make money each day you bet, make money each week of football, and make money each season. I didn't make money yesterday and since it was the only game of the week, I didn't meet that criteria either. However, I won't let week 21 of the season put a damper on the other 20 weeks, especially because I only lost the same amount of money in week 21 as I put up in any of the other 20 weeks. So it was (roughly) 1/21st of the total amount wagered on the season. It was a solid season for me, w/ great winning %s and another year I was comfortably up. I will enjoy the good thoughts on this season through the offseason as I continue to go back and research things, and hope to continue w/ a winning formula next season.

 

Thanks for all the input and help you all provided in these weekly threads. The offseason isn't too fun for a NFL gambler like myself, but I could use a nice vacation right about now. Good luck in your offseason, be safe and hope to see you next year.

[Piranha-z]

Great work all year Steeltown, I look forward to next year!!!!!!!!

[whomper]

I needed one More catch from Moss to end up in the black..Lost a few bucks but the damage was minimal. Brandon Jacobs not going over 55.5 and the Giants not getting a rushing TD cost be big.

[budlitebrad]

NFL | Nevada sports books lose on Super Bowl

Tue, 5 Feb 2008 15:53:38 -0800

 

The Associated Press reports Nevada sports books lost a record $2.6 million on Super Bowl bets when the New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. Nevada Gaming Control Board analyst Frank Streshley said large amounts were bet on the Giants to win outright. The payouts on those bets were up to four times the original bet because New England was such a big favorite.

 

 

I'm guessing the ML on the Giants broke a lot of bookies this week.