Bryant Johnson signs with SF

[keggerz]

I'm not going to say he isn't a nice sleeper, but there is no way that San Fran becomes a passing team without a QB. It is much better to lose 20-14 than 37-10. They are going to run, and run, and run, and run, and run, and run, just in an effort to now throw interceptions and to help them stay in games.

When exactly has martz EVER run, run, run, run, run and run, and run and run?

 

I don't think SF was a good destination fantasy wise but to say he won't be productive because they are gonna RUN is just well nothing more then an assumption that isnt based off of any sorta of statistical breakdown at all...do I expect him to really have any fantasy relevance? No, but not because of their running game.

[nuke'em ttg]

When exactly has martz EVER run, run, run, run, run and run, and run and run?

 

I don't think SF was a good destination fantasy wise but to say he won't be productive because they are gonna RUN is just well nothing more then an assumption that isnt based off of any sorta of statistical breakdown at all...do I expect him to really have any fantasy relevance? No, but not because of their running game.

 

no chit....like the Pats / Rams SB when Mad Mike ran Marshall 7 times.......... it was some crazy low number

[The Wolf]

Are we sure about this signing? I've seen nothing about this on any of the major websites, the 49ers site or on nfl.com.

Edited March 14, 2008 by The Wolf

[Bronco Billy]

no chit....like the Pats / Rams SB when Mad Mike ran Marshall 7 times.......... it was some crazy low number

 

Don't get me started on that. IMO, easily the worst case ever of a coach handing a championship to the opponent in any professional sport.

[Seahawks21]

When exactly has martz EVER run, run, run, run, run and run, and run and run?

 

I don't think SF was a good destination fantasy wise but to say he won't be productive because they are gonna RUN is just well nothing more then an assumption that isnt based off of any sorta of statistical breakdown at all...do I expect him to really have any fantasy relevance? No, but not because of their running game.

If they want to be competetive, they have no choice. Their best player is their RB, and their worst players on their whole entire team are at QB and WR. If they pass, pass, pass, they will be 0-16. Either Mike Martz changes his ways, or he is one and done with an embarrassing record that will probably lead to him not getting another shot anytime soon. I think Martz is a pretty bright guy. There is no way he tries to turn this team into the 99 Rams. He wouldn't commit career suicide that quickly.

[keggerz]

If they want to be competetive, they have no choice. Their best player is their RB, and their worst players on their whole entire team are at QB and WR. If they pass, pass, pass, they will be 0-16. Either Mike Martz changes his ways, or he is one and done with an embarrassing record that will probably lead to him not getting another shot anytime soon. I think Martz is a pretty bright guy. There is no way he tries to turn this team into the 99 Rams. He wouldn't commit career suicide that quickly.

what in his PAST gives you even a slight glimmer of hope that he would change his style? I just dont see how you can think that Martz is gonna suddenly change the style of game that he is known for? If the niners were looking for a "RUN FIRST COACH" (so they could stay in games as you put it) I would suspect they would have gone in a different direction rather then recycle a coach that is known for NOT running the ball to have him come in and do something that he has never proven he can do. Could he change his style up? Sure he could but I would venture to guess that the chance of it happening would be slim to none and slim didnt show up.

Edited March 14, 2008 by keggerz

[keggerz]

If they want to be competetive, they have no choice. Their best player is their RB, and their worst players on their whole entire team are at QB and WR. If they pass, pass, pass, they will be 0-16. Either Mike Martz changes his ways, or he is one and done with an embarrassing record that will probably lead to him not getting another shot anytime soon. I think Martz is a pretty bright guy. There is no way he tries to turn this team into the 99 Rams. He wouldn't commit career suicide that quickly.

just curious but would you be willing to venture a guess on how many rushing vs passing plays YOU THINK the niners will run this yr in a as you put it "RUN HEAVY" Mike Martz offense?

 

if you dont want to guess an exact number then you can just give a ratio.

Edited March 14, 2008 by keggerz

[Pancake]

what in his PAST gives you even a slight glimmer of hope that he would change his style? I just dont see how you can think that Martz is gonna suddenly change the style of game that he is known for? If the niners were looking for a "RUN FIRST COACH" (so they could stay in games as you put it) I would suspect they would have gone in a different direction rather then recycle a coach that is known for NOT running the ball to have him come in and do something that he has never proven he can do. Could he change his style up? Sure he could but I would venture to guess that the chance of it happening would be slim to none and slim didnt show up.

 

I respectfully disagree with you. First of all, Martz is not the HC and does not install the game plans. Martz will do what he is told to do which IMO will be to move the chains in a conservative fashion so that 49ers defense can win a handful of games for them. Martz IS a passing game genius, but he does not have all the working parts in SF like he had in DET and STL. I feel pretty confident that even before he was hired he was told what his role will be.....which I think is to coach a young and under performing 1st overall pick QB and inject life into one of the worst passing games in the NFL. My take on the Martz hiring is that if we dont see A. Smith make strides under Matz then they cut Smith loose and move on. This is A. Smiths last chance to be a 49er. We wont see a down feild pass happy attack from the 2008 9ers offense like it was in DET and StL. It will be all dink and dunk crap with Gore being the leading receiver....for the 3rd straight year in a row.

Edited March 14, 2008 by Pancake

[keggerz]

I respectfully disagree with you. First of all, Martz is not the HC and does not install the game plans. Martz will do what he is told to do which IMO will be to move the chains in a conservative fashion so that 49ers defense can win a handful of games for them. Martz IS a passing game genius, but he does not have all the working parts in SF like he had in DET and STL. I feel pretty confident that even before he was hired he was told what his role will be.....which I think is to coach a young and under performing 1st overall pick QB and inject life into one of the worst passing games in the NFL. My take on the Martz hiring is that if we dont see A. Smith make strides under Matz then they cut Smith loose and move on. This is A. Smiths last chance to be a 49er. We wont see a down feild pass happy attack from the 2008 9ers offense like it was in DET and StL. It will be all dink and dunk crap with Gore being the leading receiver....for the 3rd straight year in a row.

ok, then what do you think the run pass ratio will be? and how many offensive plays do you expect?(so we can get some numbers here). Notice I never said that MARTZ was going to PAS PASS PASS PASS...I just said expecting RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN was probably not a very likely thing to expect.

 

FWIW, the most rushing attempts a Martz led offense ever had was 431(good for 15thi most attempts) and that happened in 1999.

[Seahawks21]

the number may not be higher due to less plays than the Rams ran, but the ratio will be higher. If Martz runs his traditional passing offense, he will have the playcalling duties taken away by week five at the longest, after an 0-5 start. That is all I'm saying. If they go the Martz way, they will lose LOTS of football games. Therefore, they cannot go the Martz way. I am not basing this off of anything but common sense and wins and losses. I know common sense and Mike Martz typically don't go hand-in-hand, but it isn't exactly like he has Kurt Warner or Marc Bulger to fall back on here. He has no choice but to run, and run lots.

 

I am not really a numbers guy, so you will have to do the crunching, but if you come up with a proposal that looks good, I'm always down for interesting wagers.

Edited March 14, 2008 by Seahawks21

[Pope Flick]

I don't know what martz's traditional ratios were, all I know is the 2002 Rams would throw a 60 yard post on 3rd and 2. ALWAYS.

 

I don't see SF doing that.

[Pancake]

what in his PAST gives you even a slight glimmer of hope that he would change his style? I just dont see how you can think that Martz is gonna suddenly change the style of game that he is known for? Could he change his style up? Sure he could but I would venture to guess that the chance of it happening would be slim to none and slim didnt show up.

 

OK I see. I was responding to this post of yours were you are saying in pretty plain english that the 2008 Martz lead 49er offensive will be pass heavy based on Martz prior coaching history. I'm merely disagreeing that it will be a pass heavy attack for reasons I have mentioned before. If you want numbers then I will throw a couple nubmers up for consumption. 60% run / 40% pass....with Gore being the recipient of the highest number of catches. Gore should be considered a top 5 though 8 RB that could be drafted for value this year. I think what we will see is the 49ers "in" a couple more games this year by the 4th quarter...notice I didnt say win....just "in" the game. Martz will make Alex Smith a better QB ( i hope, i hope, i hope) and make the passing attack more effective (i hope, i hope, i hope) and by no means will, or can, the 9ers rely on the pass this year with their turn style O line and has been WRs corps.

[piratesownninjas]

I thought this was a Bryant Johnson thread...

[keggerz]

the number may not be higher due to less plays than the Rams ran, but the ratio will be higher. If Martz runs his traditional passing offense, he will have the playcalling duties taken away by week five at the longest, after an 0-5 start. That is all I'm saying. If they go the Martz way, they will lose LOTS of football games. Therefore, they cannot go the Martz way. I am not basing this off of anything but common sense and wins and losses. I know common sense and Mike Martz typically don't go hand-in-hand, but it isn't exactly like he has Kurt Warner or Marc Bulger to fall back on here. He has no choice but to run, and run lots.

 

I am not really a numbers guy, so you will have to do the crunching, but if you come up with a proposal that looks good, I'm always down for interesting wagers.

 

i have not once said that martz was going to be pass happy....however, you have said he will be "run happy"(in so many words, did you not?)...all I have said is that there is NOTHING in Martz's past to suggest that he will have a "run happy" offense.

 

its weak sauce to say they will RUN LOTS and then say you arent a numbers guy so you dont have any idea how much that will be except to say their RUSH RATIO will be higher then what it was with the RAMS....that is FAR from saying it will be a RUN HAPPY offense...

 

 

 

 

OK I see. I was responding to this post of yours were you are saying in pretty plain english that the 2008 Martz lead 49er offensive will be pass heavy based on Martz prior coaching history. I'm merely disagreeing that it will be a pass heavy attack for reasons I have mentioned before. If you want numbers then I will throw a couple nubmers up for consumption. 60% run / 40% pass....with Gore being the recipient of the highest number of catches. Gore should be considered a top 5 though 8 RB that could be drafted for value this year. I think what we will see is the 49ers "in" a couple more games this year by the 4th quarter...notice I didnt say win....just "in" the game. Martz will make Alex Smith a better QB ( i hope, i hope, i hope) and make the passing attack more effective (i hope, i hope, i hope) and by no means will, or can, the 9ers rely on the pass this year with their turn style O line and has been WRs corps.

 

with regards to the bolded part first: I have NOT said that the niners would be PASS HAPPY just that they arent very likely to be RUN HEAVY and that is based on Martz's history. I think there is a much greater chance for a more balanced attack(which would still be a stretch) then there would be of one that was RUSH HEAVY.

 

With regards to the type i highlighted in RED:

If you think the niners are going to be running the ball 60% of the time I think you are gonna MOST LIKELY be wrong:

Since 1999 the team that led the league in rushing attempts only eclipsed 60% rushing attempts ONCE and that was the 2004 Steelers with 618 rushingn attempts(most in the NFL since 1999 too) with a 61.1% rushing ratio

 

Here are some numbers:

(1st column is the year....2nd Rush Ratio under Martz....3rd Rush Ratio for teams leading the league in Rush Attempts)

 

99	43.4	49.700	37.8	52.801	41.3	54.502	33.5	52.503	39.0	54.704	37.7	61.105	37.1	57.206	31.6	53.707	33.6	52.4

 

now the one thing i should point out is in order to do this research quickly i am using the rushing attempts leaders to show the rush ratio...that does not mean that that was the highest ratio that year...i didnt have the time nor the energy to do the breakdown for each team....but i think it is probably safe to assume that those teams had to be at or near the top of the rankings with regards to rushing attempts.

 

Also over the past 3 years the niners have had rush ratios of:

 

05 49.5

06 47.8

07 38.6

 

also over the course of those 3 yrs they ran the following total plays from scrimmage:

 

05 865

06 918

07 925

 

I dont know but I just dont see how one would expect the niners to be a RUN HEAVY team in 2008 with Martz as Offensive Coord when in 2006 with Norv I LOVE TO RUN THE BALL TURNER they only rushed the ball 47.8% of the time....I guess only time will tell but I guess outside of Pancake saying 60% rushes I dont really know what seahawks21 considers RUN HEAVY.

Edited March 15, 2008 by keggerz

[keggerz]

I thought this was a Bryant Johnson thread...

well considering he is a WR in a MARTZ offense I would say that this is relevant to BRYANT JOHNSON

 

oh and I have a quesiton: since you say "RUN HEAVY" do you think the niners will run it more then 55-60% of the time?

I am just trying to get a grasp on what you consider "run heavy"

[budlitebrad]

The addition of Mike Martz as OC for this offense is one of the most surprising moves I have ever seen. It's like bringing in a Top Gun instructor to train a Walmart softball team.

 

"Holy sh!t, it's Viper!"

 

"Viper's up here, great...oh sh!t..."

 

"Great, he's probably saying, 'Holy sh!t, it's Maverick and Goose.'"

[Guest Chappy]

"Holy sh!t, it's Viper!"

 

"Viper's up here, great...oh sh!t..."

 

"Great, he's probably saying, 'Holy sh!t, it's Maverick and Goose.'"

 

Definitely Top 10 on my all-time favorites and maybe even Top 5.

[SF409ers]

Run, pass, crawl (Alex Smith is good at this) I don't care what they do as long as they can win a few more games this year. Wow, how far my favorite team has fallen when I would be thrilled with just getting to 8-8

[irish]

You know what's kind of funny people are talking about Johnson as having sleeper status going into this year. However, now I may have missed it, but no one is talking about how he'll be competing for the #3 WR spot with Arnaz Battle and will be playing behind Darrell Jackson (okay so he can't stay healthy or catch the ball at times but he's #1 on the depth chart) and recently signed Isaac Bruce who will most definitely take over the #2 WR spot. So not only does Johnson have to compete with Gore and Davis for touches but he also has Jackson, Bruce and possibly Battle ahead of him on the WR depth chart. Do I believe that he'll be competing for a starting spot, yes. However, he still has to get it and he'd still be the 3rd option if he did. If he doesn't get it he could be as low as #3/4 on the WR depth chart and of zero value or close to it in terms of fantasy potential.

[piratesownninjas]

well considering he is a WR in a MARTZ offense I would say that this is relevant to BRYANT JOHNSON

 

oh and I have a quesiton: since you say "RUN HEAVY" do you think the niners will run it more then 55-60% of the time?

I am just trying to get a grasp on what you consider "run heavy"

Bryant Johnson is not Frank Gore.

[Bronco Billy]

You know what's kind of funny people are talking about Johnson as having sleeper status going into this year. However, now I may have missed it, but no one is talking about how he'll be competing for the #3 WR spot with Arnaz Battle and will be playing behind Darrell Jackson (okay so he can't stay healthy or catch the ball at times but he's #1 on the depth chart) and recently signed Isaac Bruce who will most definitely take over the #2 WR spot. So not only does Johnson have to compete with Gore and Davis for touches but he also has Jackson, Bruce and possibly Battle ahead of him on the WR depth chart. Do I believe that he'll be competing for a starting spot, yes. However, he still has to get it and he'd still be the 3rd option if he did. If he doesn't get it he could be as low as #3/4 on the WR depth chart and of zero value or close to it in terms of fantasy potential.

 

You watch for potential to break out when it has an opportunity. Just like Curtis sat behind Holt & Bruce in STL and put up comparable numbers when called upon to fill in during injuries to those 2 guys, Johnson has sat behind Boldin & Fitz in AZ and has done the same thing when called upon. There's not just potential there, there's ability that has been tapped and shown that it can compete competently at the starting WR level when the need arises.

 

That's no small thing, IMO. It's an indictor that a savvy FFer watches carefully and cultivates when the opportunity arises, usually at a time like this when Johnson can be had in FF drafts at a relatively very low price.

[keggerz]

Bryant Johnson is not Frank Gore.

I am not really sure what that has to do with anything

 

and a question for Seahawks21...Simply pick answer A or answer B

 

Do you expect the niners to have a:

 

A. Winning Season

B. Losing Season

 

Pancake can also answer if he would like

[keggerz]

and ADAM SHEFTER(sp?) is now reporting DJAX will be cut.

[Guest Chappy]

You watch for potential to break out when it has an opportunity. Just like Curtis sat behind Holt & Bruce in STL and put up comparable numbers when called upon to fill in during injuries to those 2 guys, Johnson has sat behind Boldin & Fitz in AZ and has done the same thing when called upon. There's not just potential there, there's ability that has been tapped and shown that it can compete competently at the starting WR level when the need arises.

 

That's no small thing, IMO. It's an indictor that a savvy FFer watches carefully and cultivates when the opportunity arises, usually at a time like this when Johnson can be had in FF drafts at a relatively very low price.

 

You're right on the money there. And the key to the whole statement is right there based on his situation alone. Otherwise he wouldn't be able to be had a a very low price had he gone to a better team.

 

ETA: If DJax is released as Keggerz mentioned the price will obviously not be as low.

Edited March 15, 2008 by Chappy

[Guest Chappy]

and ADAM SHEFTER(sp?) is now reporting DJAX will be cut.

 

Well that'll certainly help Johnson's cause and should slide him right into the starting lineup as I think he'll have no problem beating out Battle. If DJax is in fact released, Johnson may very well be the #1 WR for the 49ers and would then be in a position to be a #2 fantasy WR.