Bryant Johnson signs with SF

[peepinmofo]

Well that'll certainly help Johnson's cause and should slide him right into the starting lineup as I think he'll have no problem beating out Battle. If DJax is in fact released, Johnson may very well be the #1 WR for the 49ers and would then be in a position to be a #2 fantasy WR.

I disagree. Any WR in SF shouldnt be considered a 1 or a 2 until they show they can be successful passing the ball. If AS plays QB, I dont see much of a difference in any of the WRs there. Just my thoughts...

[Guest Chappy]

I disagree. Any WR in SF shouldnt be considered a 1 or a 2 until they show they can be successful passing the ball. If AS plays QB, I dont see much of a difference in any of the WRs there. Just my thoughts...

 

Well my original comment was that Johnson would be a #3 fantasy WR and that was with DJax and Bruce ahead of him on the depth chart. If DJax is released and Johnson finds himself as the #1 there, I think he has to be considered a #2 based on the opportunity only.

[Bronco Billy]

You're right on the money there. And the key to the whole statement is right there based on his situation alone. Otherwise he wouldn't be able to be had a a very low price had he gone to a better team.

 

This goes right back to your luck poll, Chappy. There's no guarantee that Johnson will be a good FF WR, but there are signs there that he could outperform what figures to be his projected ADP by a significant amount. Those are the players that "lucky" FF owners look for in the later middle rounds of a draft. Is it lucky if you get #2 FF WR performance out of Johnson this year? Sure it is, there's no sure things in FF - especially with a WR changing teams and going to a team with a new OC and question marks at QB. But the owner that others call lucky puts themselves in a position to acquire players like Johnson that have evidence to suggest that there is a better than normal chance that they'll outperform their ADP.

 

There's the evidence that Johnson has put forth in his career when given the opportunity due to a Fitz/Boldin injury, and the evidence that Martz has put forth with his throwing offensive philosophy and his ability to get more out of a QB than anyone expected, or to find a QB out of the blue who can run his O. That's stuff the "lucky" owners pick up on.

Edited March 15, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[Seahawks21]

Keggerz, the niners will NOT have a winning season. I never implied that they would. However, in an effort to do so, they are going to run substantially more than Martz typically does. I'm sorry, I'm working my 13th day out of fourteen, so honestly I am too lazy to try and quantify that at this point. LIke I said, if you can come up with a way to quantify it and would like to make a wager, I'm almost always game.

 

It isn't like I don't know Mike Martz style. It isn't like there is anything at all in his past that would lead anyone to believe that Mike Martz is going to have a RUN HEAVY offense. What I'm saying is that he doesn't have a choice. He can either change his style, and have a chance to compete and keep his job....or keep passing, go maybe 3-13 and get his QB killed and then get run out of town probably to never work in the NFL again. He isn't that stupid. Crunch numbers if you want and let me know, but looking at numbers right now is probably the most miserable thing I could imagine doing on this planet. Sorry I couldn't be more fun.

[Pancake]

Good info in your previous post Keggerz. I will rely on your numbers as I dont have the time or energy to do the research myself either...and I clearly didnt do the research regarding run/pass ratio that I posted earlier. So from my understanding, based on your numbers, a heavy run ration would be 55% to 60% rush. Well I certainly dont think that the 9ers will have a heavy rush ratio then, but I do think that they will try to establish the run early in games to slow games down and let their D win games for them...whether they can make the run game work for them is a different story as opposing Ds certainly wont respect the passing game.

 

Ill answer your question: B - A losing season

 

All that being said, I think their passing game will be miserable this year. No upgrad at QB, no upgrade at O line (currently but I expect them to draft O linemen), slight upgrade at WR. I'm just hopeing that Martz brings a little magic to the passing game.

 

A. Battle will be in the mix for the 9ers at WR...I wonder if they keep Ashley Lelie. My take on the Bryant signing is that any WR on the 9ers will not catch more than 50 passes this year as there is just not enough passes to go around. Gore and Vernon Davis will lead the team in receptions. Here is little tidbit of info. The last time a WR lead the team in receptions was 2003 and that was T. Owens with 80 catches. For the last 5 years TEs and RB have lead the team in receptions. No WR since 2003 has had more than 59 catches in a season and the leading receiver during those years has been A. Battle. So doing the math, based on historical catches, says that the leading WR on the 49ers probalby will catch around 50 to 60 balls for around 600 to 700 yards and a handful of TDs. I'm so depressed now.

Edited March 15, 2008 by Pancake

[piratesownninjas]

I am not really sure what that has to do with anything

I'm messing with you.

[Randall]

Well my original comment was that Johnson would be a #3 fantasy WR and that was with DJax and Bruce ahead of him on the depth chart. If DJax is released and Johnson finds himself as the #1 there, I think he has to be considered a #2 based on the opportunity only.

 

 

He has been now.

 

49ers Waive WR Jackson

Adam Schefter, NFL Network -

 

The San Francisco 49ers have placed WR Darrell Jackson on waivers. Jackson was deemed expendable after the signings of WRs Bryant Johnson and Issac Bruce. Jackson was traded by Seattle to the 49ers for a fourth-round pick just one year ago.

[Seahawks21]

Any chance we can bring him back and waive Deion freaking Branch?

[Pancake]

He has been now.

 

49ers Waive WR Jackson

Adam Schefter, NFL Network -

 

The San Francisco 49ers have placed WR Darrell Jackson on waivers. Jackson was deemed expendable after the signings of WRs Bryant Johnson and Issac Bruce. Jackson was traded by Seattle to the 49ers for a fourth-round pick just one year ago.

 

Remember how everybody thought that the 49ers got the better end of that deal. Djax for a 4th rounder.

Edited March 15, 2008 by Pancake

[piratesownninjas]

Any chance we can bring him back and waive Deion freaking Branch?

You lose either way...

[Deathpig]

(excuse the noob finally making an account and posting...)

 

I see the biggest advantage to having Martz is that he will be a better playcaller than the guy he's replacing. I don't know how many of you guys suffered through watching any Niners games last season, but there was no rhythm or flow to the offensive gameplan at all. I doubt the Niners become some sort of '50s 60% run team any time soon, but I can see something closer to 50/50 or 55/45 pass pretty easily. Martz is entering a situation not unlike the '99 season under Vermeil (OC on what was assumed to be a terrible team), though this time with less obvious offensive tools to work with. I think with Martz the Niners have a better chance to sustain drives. I'm not saying they're winning the Super Bowl or anything, but the fewer drives that read: Frank Gore up the middle for 2 yards, Frank Gore up the middle for -1 yard, Alex Smith pass incomplete... the better.

 

The biggest disadvantage will be getting the offense to learn his system. This might be aided with the presense of Bruce (an experienced player to help delegate some of the teaching to), and possibly Sullivan, but Martz has a notoriously complicated offense. The other big question mark is how well Nolan can keep Martz reigned in-- this is something Vermeil did a great job of, and Marinelli did a terrible job of.

 

 

So, if things go well, the Niners can sustain some drives and keep the defense fresh then maybe they can stay in some games and even pull a few out. If things go poorly and Martz goes pass-wacky, the Niners could end up losing big and getting QBs hurt at an alarming rate. My gut says that this situation is good news for Bryant Johnson and Gore, and bad news for Vernon Davis. Martz has not been a huge TE guy (though it's true he's never had a freak like Davis to play with). I don't know if I'd elevate Johnson to #2 FF receiver just yet (don't think this places him top 24 or so), but I'd roll the dice with him over a more questionable #2 receiver from a better team, especially toward the tail end of the #2 FF WRs (depending on how you're tiering people). Obviously, as we get more information from camps and start to see pre-season games things will be much more clear.

 

 

 

And because at some point in the future someone is going to ask who the heck I am, I'll write it down here so Big John can link it for posterity as the question arises:

 

I'm a California native who got back into football via a fantasy league in '99. Followed the Rams closely because I ended up with Warner on my team due to Testaverde popping his Achilles in the first half of the first game of the season. Been a member of the Huddle since '99 or '00 (I forget exactly now) though never bothered to make a forum account because I didn't feel I knew enough to contribute-- yes, it took like 8 years for me to finally have some degree of understanding about what the heck is going on with football. Currently live in SF, and have season tickets to the Niners.

[Sturphy]

(excuse the noob finally making an account and posting...)

 

I see the biggest advantage to having Martz is that he will be a better playcaller than the guy he's replacing. I don't know how many of you guys suffered through watching any Niners games last season, but there was no rhythm or flow to the offensive gameplan at all. I doubt the Niners become some sort of '50s 60% run team any time soon, but I can see something closer to 50/50 or 55/45 pass pretty easily. Martz is entering a situation not unlike the '99 season under Vermeil (OC on what was assumed to be a terrible team), though this time with less obvious offensive tools to work with. I think with Martz the Niners have a better chance to sustain drives. I'm not saying they're winning the Super Bowl or anything, but the fewer drives that read: Frank Gore up the middle for 2 yards, Frank Gore up the middle for -1 yard, Alex Smith pass incomplete... the better.

 

The biggest disadvantage will be getting the offense to learn his system. This might be aided with the presense of Bruce (an experienced player to help delegate some of the teaching to), and possibly Sullivan, but Martz has a notoriously complicated offense. The other big question mark is how well Nolan can keep Martz reigned in-- this is something Vermeil did a great job of, and Marinelli did a terrible job of.

So, if things go well, the Niners can sustain some drives and keep the defense fresh then maybe they can stay in some games and even pull a few out. If things go poorly and Martz goes pass-wacky, the Niners could end up losing big and getting QBs hurt at an alarming rate. My gut says that this situation is good news for Bryant Johnson and Gore, and bad news for Vernon Davis. Martz has not been a huge TE guy (though it's true he's never had a freak like Davis to play with). I don't know if I'd elevate Johnson to #2 FF receiver just yet (don't think this places him top 24 or so), but I'd roll the dice with him over a more questionable #2 receiver from a better team, especially toward the tail end of the #2 FF WRs (depending on how you're tiering people). Obviously, as we get more information from camps and start to see pre-season games things will be much more clear.

And because at some point in the future someone is going to ask who the heck I am, I'll write it down here so Big John can link it for posterity as the question arises:

 

I'm a California native who got back into football via a fantasy league in '99. Followed the Rams closely because I ended up with Warner on my team due to Testaverde popping his Achilles in the first half of the first game of the season. Been a member of the Huddle since '99 or '00 (I forget exactly now) though never bothered to make a forum account because I didn't feel I knew enough to contribute-- yes, it took like 8 years for me to finally have some degree of understanding about what the heck is going on with football. Currently live in SF, and have season tickets to the Niners.

Very nice first post.

[Pancake]

(excuse the noob finally making an account and posting...)

 

I see the biggest advantage to having Martz is that he will be a better playcaller than the guy he's replacing. I don't know how many of you guys suffered through watching any Niners games last season, but there was no rhythm or flow to the offensive gameplan at all. I doubt the Niners become some sort of '50s 60% run team any time soon, but I can see something closer to 50/50 or 55/45 pass pretty easily. Martz is entering a situation not unlike the '99 season under Vermeil (OC on what was assumed to be a terrible team), though this time with less obvious offensive tools to work with. I think with Martz the Niners have a better chance to sustain drives. I'm not saying they're winning the Super Bowl or anything, but the fewer drives that read: Frank Gore up the middle for 2 yards, Frank Gore up the middle for -1 yard, Alex Smith pass incomplete... the better.

 

The biggest disadvantage will be getting the offense to learn his system. This might be aided with the presense of Bruce (an experienced player to help delegate some of the teaching to), and possibly Sullivan, but Martz has a notoriously complicated offense. The other big question mark is how well Nolan can keep Martz reigned in-- this is something Vermeil did a great job of, and Marinelli did a terrible job of.

So, if things go well, the Niners can sustain some drives and keep the defense fresh then maybe they can stay in some games and even pull a few out. If things go poorly and Martz goes pass-wacky, the Niners could end up losing big and getting QBs hurt at an alarming rate. My gut says that this situation is good news for Bryant Johnson and Gore, and bad news for Vernon Davis. Martz has not been a huge TE guy (though it's true he's never had a freak like Davis to play with). I don't know if I'd elevate Johnson to #2 FF receiver just yet (don't think this places him top 24 or so), but I'd roll the dice with him over a more questionable #2 receiver from a better team, especially toward the tail end of the #2 FF WRs (depending on how you're tiering people). Obviously, as we get more information from camps and start to see pre-season games things will be much more clear.

And because at some point in the future someone is going to ask who the heck I am, I'll write it down here so Big John can link it for posterity as the question arises:

 

I'm a California native who got back into football via a fantasy league in '99. Followed the Rams closely because I ended up with Warner on my team due to Testaverde popping his Achilles in the first half of the first game of the season. Been a member of the Huddle since '99 or '00 (I forget exactly now) though never bothered to make a forum account because I didn't feel I knew enough to contribute-- yes, it took like 8 years for me to finally have some degree of understanding about what the heck is going on with football. Currently live in SF, and have season tickets to the Niners.

 

Welcome Deathpig. A very good post. I look forward to reading more of your sound reasoning in the future. I agree with everything that you said.

[peepinmofo]

(excuse the noob finally making an account and posting...)

 

I see the biggest advantage to having Martz is that he will be a better playcaller than the guy he's replacing. I don't know how many of you guys suffered through watching any Niners games last season, but there was no rhythm or flow to the offensive gameplan at all. I doubt the Niners become some sort of '50s 60% run team any time soon, but I can see something closer to 50/50 or 55/45 pass pretty easily. Martz is entering a situation not unlike the '99 season under Vermeil (OC on what was assumed to be a terrible team), though this time with less obvious offensive tools to work with. I think with Martz the Niners have a better chance to sustain drives. I'm not saying they're winning the Super Bowl or anything, but the fewer drives that read: Frank Gore up the middle for 2 yards, Frank Gore up the middle for -1 yard, Alex Smith pass incomplete... the better.

 

The biggest disadvantage will be getting the offense to learn his system. This might be aided with the presense of Bruce (an experienced player to help delegate some of the teaching to), and possibly Sullivan, but Martz has a notoriously complicated offense. The other big question mark is how well Nolan can keep Martz reigned in-- this is something Vermeil did a great job of, and Marinelli did a terrible job of.

So, if things go well, the Niners can sustain some drives and keep the defense fresh then maybe they can stay in some games and even pull a few out. If things go poorly and Martz goes pass-wacky, the Niners could end up losing big and getting QBs hurt at an alarming rate. My gut says that this situation is good news for Bryant Johnson and Gore, and bad news for Vernon Davis. Martz has not been a huge TE guy (though it's true he's never had a freak like Davis to play with). I don't know if I'd elevate Johnson to #2 FF receiver just yet (don't think this places him top 24 or so), but I'd roll the dice with him over a more questionable #2 receiver from a better team, especially toward the tail end of the #2 FF WRs (depending on how you're tiering people). Obviously, as we get more information from camps and start to see pre-season games things will be much more clear.

And because at some point in the future someone is going to ask who the heck I am, I'll write it down here so Big John can link it for posterity as the question arises:

 

I'm a California native who got back into football via a fantasy league in '99. Followed the Rams closely because I ended up with Warner on my team due to Testaverde popping his Achilles in the first half of the first game of the season. Been a member of the Huddle since '99 or '00 (I forget exactly now) though never bothered to make a forum account because I didn't feel I knew enough to contribute-- yes, it took like 8 years for me to finally have some degree of understanding about what the heck is going on with football. Currently live in SF, and have season tickets to the Niners.

You seem to have more than enough knowledgeable info now, so please post again.

 

Keep everyone up to speed with what you hear out there in SF.

[keggerz]

Keggerz, the niners will NOT have a winning season. I never implied that they would. However, in an effort to do so, they are going to run substantially more than Martz typically does. I'm sorry, I'm working my 13th day out of fourteen, so honestly I am too lazy to try and quantify that at this point. LIke I said, if you can come up with a way to quantify it and would like to make a wager, I'm almost always game.

 

It isn't like I don't know Mike Martz style. It isn't like there is anything at all in his past that would lead anyone to believe that Mike Martz is going to have a RUN HEAVY offense. What I'm saying is that he doesn't have a choice. He can either change his style, and have a chance to compete and keep his job....or keep passing, go maybe 3-13 and get his QB killed and then get run out of town probably to never work in the NFL again. He isn't that stupid. Crunch numbers if you want and let me know, but looking at numbers right now is probably the most miserable thing I could imagine doing on this planet. Sorry I couldn't be more fun.

 

I missed this post by you.

 

 

1st I never said you implied a winning season...actually i assumed you thought they would have a losing season...I just wanted to get clarification.

 

2nd Sorry to hear you have been working for almost 2 straight weeks....been there and done that...with that said...I would gladly love to give you the time you need to get some rest so that you can come back to this.

 

3rd once you are rested up....I am not gonna debate you on what martz can do and what, when and how he could lose play calling abilities...what I want to get from you is exactly what RUN HEAVY is.....is it more then 50% run to pass ratio? more then 55%? 60% or more? Or if its easier for you to do it this way....the Niners have run the following number of plays for the last 3 yrs(07: 925(58plays/game, 06:918(57plays/game), 05:865(54plays/game)....maybe having how many plays the niners run per game will help you to give up a number of rushes you expect them to have per game in what you are suggesting will be a RUN HEAVY offense....i would say that 57 or 58 would probably be safe to use for this exercise...once you do that we can talk about coming up with that bet.

 

4th stop reading this and get yourself some rest

Edited March 16, 2008 by keggerz

[Seahawks21]

Whoa. I just tried read that. Please make the room stop spinning!! I will try to decipher this another time. It sure looks pretty though.