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What will the % of running plays be in SF with Martz?


keggerz
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What will the 9ers rushing % be?  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. What % of offensive plays will the 9ers rush the ball this year?

    • 60% or more Rushes
      2
    • 55%-59% Rushes
      4
    • 50%-54% Rushes
      4
    • 45%-49% Rushes
      7
    • 40%-44% Rushes
      16
    • 35%-39% Rushes
      10
    • 34% or less Rushes
      6


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At this point with the lack of any wide outs that can stretch the field and a QB that has what, 4 games of experience, I can't see Nolan reducing Gore's carries that much. They definately need a WR that can stretch the field and I think Jackson from Cal might be to their liking. I voted 40-44%.

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At this point with the lack of any wide outs that can stretch the field and a QB that has what, 4 games of experience, I can't see Nolan reducing Gore's carries that much. They definately need a WR that can stretch the field and I think Jackson from Cal might be to their liking. I voted 40-44%.

with the little bit of research I did I also voted like you did....i HIGHLY doubt it would be higher and if so it surely wouldnt be MUCH higher(imo)...and it wouldnt surprise me to see it dip into the 30's either.

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the bryant johnson thread got sorta hijacked with some discussion about Martz and how much the Niners will run the ball thisyr.

 

Feel free to say why you are voting the way you are too

 

kick the moths off that money clip.... Bryant Johnson is the last piece of the puzzle :wacko:

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I don't think Martz will ever run more than throw, regardless of who has has to work with. He's an egomaniac, and far too proud to run more than pass. Saying that, Frank Gore won't touch the ball any less... His catches are going to go way up. Just look at what a healthy Kevin Jones did two years ago.

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In the biggest game of his coaching life, with one of the best RBs ever to play the game gaining 5 ypc, Martz had no problem abondoning the running game despite that allowing a much weaker team to stay in the game against him & eventually pull off one of the biggest upsets in NFL championship history.

 

Since that time, I have't seen one shred of evidence that Martz has learned anything from that, rather that his gigantic ego convinces himself that running the ball is a luxury and not a necessity in the NFL and that he is convinced that he is smarter by far than anyone else in the league.

 

No, his O philosophy doesn't change now. If he doesn't have the right QB under center to run his O, he'll find the right QB (or so he thinks). Despite my disregard for his game philosophy, the guy can develop QBs to throw with the best of them. I voted 40%-45%, but it wouldn't surprise me in th least to see it drop below 40%. He's got Bruce, Johnson, Davis to catch the ball for him, and that's a much improved cast of receivers over last year. You just might see Smith take a leap in production if Martz decides he's the starting QB - he's got targets who can help him now.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I sure would like to know the rationale that people used to vote for 50-54, 55-59 & 60+(i think that may have been pancake)....but seriously I would like to hear those people support their reasons and to do it with something more then "because"

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I looked at the stats keg posted about the percentage of running plays a Martz O has run and chose 35-39%. If he could he'd never run the ball.

Edited by Kid Cid
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I sure would like to know the rationale that people used to vote for 50-54, 55-59 & 60+(i think that may have been pancake)....but seriously I would like to hear those people support their reasons and to do it with something more then "because"

 

Voted 45 to 50 (scaled it back after reading your #s on the highest rund/pass ratios)

My reasoning is that I think Nolan will "corral" Martz's ego and we will see a more balance attack. For the following reasons 1) QB is suspect, 2) O line is suspect, 3) WR are medicore, 4) RB is the best player on the team, 5) 9ers run ratio in 2006 was 50% and I see them going to that place again.

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Voted 45 to 50 (scaled it back after reading your #s on the highest rund/pass ratios)

My reasoning is that I think Nolan will "corral" Martz's ego and we will see a more balance attack. For the following reasons 1) QB is suspect, 2) O line is suspect, 3) WR are medicore, 4) RB is the best player on the team, 5) 9ers run ratio in 2006 was 50% and I see them going to that place again.

Same could be said in Detroit.

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There is zero chance that they run the ball less than 40%. If they do that, they will be 0-16. For a team with such a good RB and a tough defense, there is no way they commit suicide. If Mike Martz throws 65% of the time in week one, he will get his ass chewed out. If he does this again in week two, he will lose playcalling duties.

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There is zero chance that they run the ball less than 40%. If they do that, they will be 0-16. For a team with such a good RB and a tough defense, there is no way they commit suicide. If Mike Martz throws 65% of the time in week one, he will get his ass chewed out. If he does this again in week two, he will lose playcalling duties.

 

 

Zero chance? :D Come on you Gore owners. The last stage in the 5 stages is acceptance. Isn't it time you acknowledge Mike Martz will be calling the plays? Gore can catch and run too you know. Maybe he won't have the 5 carry games KJ had last year. :wacko:

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There is zero chance that they run the ball less than 40%. If they do that, they will be 0-16. For a team with such a good RB and a tough defense, there is no way they commit suicide. If Mike Martz throws 65% of the time in week one, he will get his ass chewed out. If he does this again in week two, he will lose playcalling duties.

so what stance are you taking now? That they wont run the ball less then 40% of the time or that they will be a RUN HEAVY team(which you still havent stated what you consider RUN HEAVY)....

 

seriously, pick a side and put something on the table...for one i would like to hear you stand by your first stance of RUN HEAVY but then REALLY REALLY want you to put some effort into describing what RUN HEAVY is...if you do that then maybe just maybe we might be able to formulate a bet

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There is zero chance that they run the ball less than 40%. If they do that, they will be 0-16. For a team with such a good RB and a tough defense, there is no way they commit suicide. If Mike Martz throws 65% of the time in week one, he will get his ass chewed out. If he does this again in week two, he will lose playcalling duties.

did you vote? if so for what range?

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If Mike Martz throws 65% of the time in week one, he will get his ass chewed out. If he does this again in week two, he will lose playcalling duties.

 

:wacko:

 

Says who? If a team hires Mad Mikey as its OC, it's going into that arrangement with its eyes wide open. If it's well known as a fact at the Huddle that Martz will abandon the running game at times and throw the ball all over the field, you don't think SF knew that before they hired him? You think the hiring of Martz & the acquisitions of Bruce & B Johnson are a coincidence?

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:wacko:

 

Says who? If a team hires Mad Mikey as its OC, it's going into that arrangement with its eyes wide open. If it's well known as a fact at the Huddle that Martz will abandon the running game at times and throw the ball all over the field, you don't think SF knew that before they hired him? You think the hiring of Martz & the acquisitions of Bruce & B Johnson are a coincidence?

Do you think the niners will be better or worse than 0-16?

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By run heavy, i mean that they will be in the top seven in the league in running percentage. does that work for ya?

well, i guess it will have to work but it sounds much more like a cop out to me....sure seemed like you were saying they would run more then 50% of the time(i dont know if the top 7 teams run that much or not, but my guess is that they dont)....also are you gonna say how you voted :wacko:

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well, i guess it will have to work but it sounds much more like a cop out to me....sure seemed like you were saying they would run more then 50% of the time(i dont know if the top 7 teams run that much or not, but my guess is that they dont)....also are you gonna say how you voted :wacko:

Whoa whoa whoa! I'm not nearly naive enough to ever put them close to the 50% mark. Go back through my posts. Aren't there years where nobody gets to 50%? The only reason I havent given you any numbers is because I haven't looked at any. I have no idea what the top running teams average. I voted 40-45%, thinking they would probably be somewhere in the mid 40's. I figured there are probably always a team or two near fifty, then there is probably a dropoff to the next group around 45%. Again, I have no idea if these numbers are even close, it was just a guess. I'm sorry, work is a female dog right now so I apologize that I don't have the patience to go searching for stats. If you want to look it up...figure out the percentage of the 7th team in each of the last three years and we can go against that average. I do realize who Mike Martz is, and I acknowledge that they will be behind often which will force them to throw. That said, this team could be pretty good if they don't throw. This will be so apparent so early in the season that there will be too much pressure from the fans and media telling them to just run the football. Something will give.

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Whoa whoa whoa! I'm not nearly naive enough to ever put them close to the 50% mark. Go back through my posts. Aren't there years where nobody gets to 50%? The only reason I havent given you any numbers is because I haven't looked at any. I have no idea what the top running teams average. I voted 40-45%, thinking they would probably be somewhere in the mid 40's. I figured there are probably always a team or two near fifty, then there is probably a dropoff to the next group around 45%. Again, I have no idea if these numbers are even close, it was just a guess. I'm sorry, work is a female dog right now so I apologize that I don't have the patience to go searching for stats. If you want to look it up...figure out the percentage of the 7th team in each of the last three years and we can go against that average. I do realize who Mike Martz is, and I acknowledge that they will be behind often which will force them to throw. That said, this team could be pretty good if they don't throw. This will be so apparent so early in the season that there will be too much pressure from the fans and media telling them to just run the football. Something will give.

 

no sense in us formulating a bet because 40-45% is, imo, FAR from the "They are going to run, and run, and run, and run, and run, and run, just in an effort to now throw interceptions and to help them stay in games." statement that you made. When you make a statement like that it sure seems like you are indicating they are gonna be well above 50% Run to Pass....fwiw only 3 teams with losing records have topped a 50% Run Pass ratio over the last 3 yrs:

 

2007 Raiders: 50.8%

2006 Falcons: 53.7%(and we all know a TON of that was VICK)

2006 Redskins: 50.1%

 

From 2005-2007(40 teams with LOSING Records) Rush Ratios

15 Teams were 39% or less

12 Teams were between 40%-43.9%

7 Teams were between 44%-46.9%

3 Teams were between 47%-49.9%(47.8, 48.7 & 49.5%)

3 Teams were 50% or higher(as listed above)

 

I think you realized that your RUN RUN RUN+ was far fetched and changed up your stance a bit once you realized just how unlikely the scenario you were describing would be...had you said you expected them to run 55%+ of the time we would have had a bet in a NY minute. :wacko:

Edited by keggerz
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To me, top 7 would be considered pretty run heavy. I didn't mean to mislead you into thinking that they would be 1 or 2.

I disagree.....the top 7 rushing teams do not have to be run heavy teams....its all relative...if the league ended up a Pass Happy league this yr and no one in the top 7 ran the ball more then 42% of the time I would not call a top 7 rushing team RUN HEAVY.

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OKay then. I thought teams ran less than they do. Now that I see the numbers, I would have picked about 48%. They aren't good enough to run any more than that. I apologize if you believe I mislead you into thinking that I was being outlandish with my predictions, but to me, RUN RUN RUN RUN is right about 48% and above, not necessarily 60%. Teams don't run that much ever, why would I think this team would??

 

You have to know full well that if they try to throw the ball around the yard all year, they will be 2-14 and using their 5th string QB by season's end. Do you really think that is going to happen? How do you see this playing out?

Edited by Seahawks21
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