BB's 1st round analysis

[Bronco Billy]

My analysis of the first round picks:

 

1) MIA Jake Long, OT – Great pick, fills a huge need, and the kid actually beat out Joe Thomas for Big Ten lineman of the year 2 years ago.

 

2) STL Chris Long, DE – Okay, with Dorsey on the board why wouldn’t they pick him and move Carricker to DE, where Carricker could do what Wistrom used to do there? Instead, they make the D lighter by keeping Carricker at DT and picking Long to play DE. Why? To get a pass rush because Carricker is slow off the edge. The hole in Long’s game – he’s light & slow off the edge rushing the pass. The STL entire D is undersized throughout the front seven. Instead of beefing up, they trimmed down.

 

3) ATL Matt Ryan, QB – They used the number 3 pick to take Chad Pennington’s clone? With Dorsey still on the board? What a waste of value here. They should have shored up their D line and gone QB late in the first – there were 2 QBs who will be as good as or better QBs than Ryan still on the board at the end of the first round.

 

4) OAK Darren McFadden, RB – Okay, let me get this right: Dorsey is still on the board, OAK couldn’t stop a Pop Warner team from gaining 150 yds rushing in a game, and they take a RB when they already have Jordan, Fargas, Rhodes, & Bush on the roster at RB. That’s just downright stupid, no matter how great a career McFadden has. OAK won’t get the ball enough and will being throwing from behind enough that McFadden’s value drops a bunch.

 

5) KC Glenn Dorsey, DT – The stud falls right into their lap. They wanted a DE but couldn’t pass up this guy for good reason. Great luck, great player, great pick.

 

6) NYJ Vernon Gholston, DE (LB?) – With all the trading down, the Jets should have done that with NO here. Gholston may be a good player (personally I think he’s a workout warrior who may be a mediocre player), but where exactly does he fit into the Jets’ 3-4 D? He’s way to light to play a 3-4 DE, and he doesn’t have the skills to play in space as a 3-4 LB. Absolutely wrong guy for the Jets to take with their scheme.

 

7) NO Sedrick Ellis, DT – Great pick. NO has a very credible D line all of a sudden, which will take some pressure off the LBs & DBs. On a team loaded with O, this was a superb deal up for them, because Ellis wasn’t getting to them at 10.

 

8) JAX Derrick Harvey, DE – Is he a heavy OLB, or a way too light DE? He’ll get swallowed up by OTs on the line, and while he has the athletic ability I don’t know if he has the instincts to play LB. Plus he would have lasted down the board a ways longer unless I’m badly mistaken. Del Rio must have something spectacular planned for him. I’ve got my doubts here.

 

9) CIN Keith Rivers, OLB – With Ellis off the board, they address another serious need with just the right guy. Rivers steps right into the starting WLB spot with little competition (Dhani Jones? Please.) and can make a huge impact there immediately.

 

10) NE Jerod Mayo, ILB – NE trades down, acquires picks, and gets the guy they would have taken earlier anyhow. Mayo is a perfect fit for a Belichick ILB and there is need there badly in NE.

[Bronco Billy]

11) BUF Leodis McKelvin, CB – Great pick and a need spot. The kid can play in the bigs at CB, plus they’ll get return threats out of him. Well done.

 

12) DEN Ryan Clady, OT – Personally I would have liked to see DEN trade down & pick Lofton as a MLB, but if they couldn’t do that they got a very strong OT, and he’ll probably step right into Lepsis’ spot. Hopefully that 13 on the Wonderlic was a fluke.

 

13) CAR Jonathan Stewart, RB – Okay, so did DeAngelo Williams screw Fox’s wife or something? The guy was a huge workhorse in college and he’s proven that he can be a very good featured RB in the bigs, but Fox just doesn’t want to give him the ball. CAR had its starting RB and could have picked a compliment later in the draft and used this pick elsewhere. Instead they picked another featured RB. It’s a luxury for them, but they had other needs they could have filled.

 

14) CHI Chris Williams, OT – Yeah, CHI needs some help on the line, but Williams plays soft on the run & is strongest in pass protection. The Bears need to run and they don’t have the QB or WRs to support a legit passing game. Plus, Mendenhall was sitting right there for them to shore up their fiasco at RB. CHI has won a bunch of games in its past on the strength of its D & rushing O with little help at QB. Something tells me Lovey is headed to the door within 2 years at the most.

 

15) KC Branden Albert, OG (OT?) – This guy could end up as one of the top 3 OGs in the league, and he trap blocks DLs right into hell. He’s big enough & strong enough to move to OT, though, which is where I think he’ll end up, and with his agility he’ll be a very good player there. KC has to be ecstatic: you win football games starting in the trenches, and now they’ve shored up both sides of the ball there.

 

16) AZ Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – Again, Mendenhall sit on the board as the heir apparent to Edge, ho has no legit NFL RB behind him, and instead they take a CB who projects to be a project. The kid’s a hard worker & athletic as hell, but his technique is awful, and QBs and vet WRs will be jerking him around all over the field as he gives up completion after completion. He’s at least 2 years away from being a legit starting CB, and that’s with very hard work to catch up on his poor playing style.

 

17) DET Gosder Cherilus, OT – A huge reach here. Cherilus is a good drive blocker, but he’s got terrible feet and he’s sure no athlete when compared to the other first round OTs. It’s just the opposite of CHI, where they ought to be passing the ball a ton with the talent they have in the passing game & minimizing the run with their abysmal running game, but the OT they took has skills just the opposite way. DET could have gotten him later in the draft but seemed to have panicked here at the sight of the OT run. Plus, Mendenhall was there to put Tatum Bell where he belongs: in spot duty only.

 

18) BAL Joe Flacco, QB – Gigantic reach for a QB who would have lasted to their pick in the 2nd round. He’s got a big-time arm but he’s a major project as far as being ready to play in the NFL and figures to be at least 3 years from being ready to start. I’m guessing Boller sucks, they panic & thrown Flacco in before the season is over, and they risk ruining him mentally for his career like some fine passing arms who got starts way too early have done.

 

19) CAR Jeff Otah, OT – He’ll need some polishing, but he’ll play in this league, and probably early on. He’s big, strong, and just needs some work on foot speed and he’ll have the tools to start for a decade at LT for CAR.

 

20) TB Aqib Talib – Probably went a little too early, but he has all the tools to play in the bigs and TB has a serious need at CB. He’ll need some work on his technique and may get scorched a few times, but I think he’ll have a better career than Rodgers-Cromartie who went earlier.

[MikesVikes]

NE took a LB? That never happens.

[Bronco Billy]

21) ATL Sam Baker, OT – He’s not agile enough to run the counter-trey, but he’s a very good in space blocker who has some drive & a mean streak. Probably a bit of a panic pick with OTs flying off the board, but he’ll work out.

 

22) DAL Felix Jones, RB – Well, Jerrah got they guy he was targeting. He’ll help by spelling Barber but he won’t be able to carry the load himself. Hard to swallow that he goes off the board before Mendenhall, but he’s a good fit for DAL where Mendenhall wasn’t.

 

23) PIT Rashard Mendenhall, RB – Just like CAR, they have their starting featured RB in place and should have been looking later for a complimetary RB while filling other needs with a first round pick, but the value here was probably too much to pass up. Still, they could have had their choice of WRs and also, how are they going to get he & Parker the ball enough? Potentially great pick but a bad pick for the team they have & their current needs.

 

24) TEN Chris Johnson, RB – They desperately need WRs, plus they already have a Johnson-type player on the roster by the name of Henry. What exactly were they thinking, unless they are going to convert him to a slot WR: then they might be onto to something.

 

25) DAL Mike Jenkins, CB – Great pick into an area of need. If Pacman gets reinstated, DAL’s single greatest weakness (besides their owner) gets upgraded to a strength, and Jenkins can sure play the off corner in the NFL. Even if he has to move into the #1 CB roll, he ought to do well, and is probably a better CB than the two CBs picked before him.

 

26) HOU Duane Brown, OT – Definitely a panic pick, Brown went way too early. He’s going to need a lot of work just to be serviceable.

 

27) SD Antoine Cason, CB – Really has a feel for the position, and can learn by starting out as a nickel back while he adds some strength. SD did well here.

 

28) SEA Lawrence Jackson, DE – Flip a coin between he & Merling at DE, and he could turn into a Patrick Kearney clone, he’s got room to add some bulk while not losing a lot athletically and he has a mean streak a mile wide on the field. Still, SEA has some serious other needs and could have had the pick of the WRs.

 

29) SF Kentwan Balmer, DT – Major underachiever and head case who could be a good player if he ever matures, but again, SF also could have had the pick of WRs, where they really need some help. This was maybe the biggest reach of the first round given the intangibles.

 

30) NYJ Dustin Keller, TE – Now how fun was that to watch NY move up and have their faithful go nuts because they are getting Brohm, and then have Keller’s name called? That time delay of about 5 seconds of euphoria between when Keller’s name was called and the fans figured out that they didn’t know who the hell Keller was is classic. This kid could become the next best downfield TE in te league. The problem: The Jets had much bigger needs at QB and RB that they could have addressed.

 

31) NYG Kenny Phillips, S – This guy can play, no doubt. There’s a margin between he & the rest of the Ss. And he moves into an area of huge need for NY. Nice way to finish the first round for the SB champs.

[Bronco Billy]

NE took a LB? That never happens.

 

 

Yep, I was 100% wrong in pre-draft analysis on that one. Surprised me that Belichick went against his own philosophy, but he got the right guy.

[MikesVikes]

All I hear about is how Adrian Peterson would effect this year's draft but I think Patrick Willis should as well.

[piratesownninjas]

I think you're way off base with your comparison of Matt Ryan to Chad Pennington... Not even close.

[Bronco Billy]

I think you're way off base with your comparison of Matt Ryan to Chad Pennington... Not even close.

 

We'll see. I think when he's throwing into pro windows he's going to struggle badly just like Pennington. You think he threw a lot of INTs in college - you ain't seen nothing yet. He would have the 3rd or 4th best QB in any other draft of the past decade, and I'm not sure why he climbed the charts so quickly and so high.

[gilthorp]

With all due respect...the Bears pick was exactly what they needed. A strong pass protector that can allow them to move Tait to the right side, and you can teach the kid how to mash. You're dead wrong. Sorry.

[keggerz]

18) BAL Joe Flacco, QB – Gigantic reach for a QB who would have lasted to their pick in the 2nd round. He’s got a big-time arm but he’s a major project as far as being ready to play in the NFL and figures to be at least 3 years from being ready to start. I’m guessing Boller sucks, they panic & thrown Flacco in before the season is over, and they risk ruining him mentally for his career like some fine passing arms who got starts way too early have done.

 

evidently, the Ravens caught wind that the Jets were trying to move up to take Flacco

[MikesVikes]

I never believed the Gholston hype. We'll see how that works out.

 

I don't know why Mendenhall stayed on the board as long as he did. The Bears passed on him but they needed offensive line help. The Lions pick was a total surprise. It's a total surprise that Mendenhall got past Arizona as well.

 

The Dallas pick of Felix Jones is very similar to the Julius Jones pick a few years ago. Everybody thought they took the wrong back.

[keggerz]

My analysis of the first round picks:

 

 

9) CIN Keith Rivers, OLB – With Ellis off the board, they address another serious need with just the right guy. Rivers steps right into the starting WLB spot with little competition (Dhani Jones? Please.) and can make a huge impact there immediately.

http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=6746

The buzz is that in Rivers the Bengals may very well have their immediate starting middle linebacker for the next seven to 10 years

[piratesownninjas]

We'll see. I think when he's throwing into pro windows he's going to struggle badly just like Pennington. You think he threw a lot of INTs in college - you ain't seen nothing yet. He would have the 3rd or 4th best QB in any other draft of the past decade, and I'm not sure why he climbed the charts so quickly and so high.

I think he compares more to a Matt Hasselbeck than Chad Pennington. Yes he threw a lot of INT's in college, but some of that goes to the level of talent, or lack there of around him.

As far as having him as the 3rd or 4th best QB in other drafts is way off base as well. He graded out just as high as Eli, Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers...

[MikesVikes]

There were alot of Packer fans that thought that TE Keller was going to be their pick. How ironic is it that they trade that pick to the Jets so that they can pick him.

[piratesownninjas]

There were alot of Packer fans that thought that TE Keller was going to be their pick. How ironic is it that they trade that pick to the Jets so that they can pick him.

I wasn't one of those people. I'm much happier with Jermichael FInley and what he can potentially do. He doesn't need to come in and be the guy this year, but he can develop into something very nice.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

I wasn't one of those people. I'm much happier with Jermichael FInley and what he can potentially do. He doesn't need to come in and be the guy this year, but he can develop into something very nice.

 

i know the pats brought him in for a visit...and they are in need of TE help...i think maybe the pats were hoping hed drop to them in the spot they took oconnell in 3rd.....was kinda hoping the pats would take a chance on kellen davis in the 4th...but they are most likely turned off by his immaturity

[kingfish247]

We'll see. I think when he's throwing into pro windows he's going to struggle badly just like Pennington. You think he threw a lot of INTs in college - you ain't seen nothing yet. He would have the 3rd or 4th best QB in any other draft of the past decade, and I'm not sure why he climbed the charts so quickly and so high.

+1

The knock on Brohm became that he was a 'system' QB.

 

Well, Ryan had one year in a pass heavy 'system' and is the second coming.

 

What I hear from most commentators and Dimitroff himself in justifying the pick is that Ryan has the intangibles... leadership and intelligence. So he's a good interview and someone you want holding the compass? How about can he have a long successful career? As highly drafted QBs go, as drafting any QB goes... probably not.

 

Dorsey is a ten year starter at his position and doesn't need 3-5 other good pieces to play at a high level.

 

About the comparison to Eli/Ben/Rivers...

-Ben was drafted onto a team with many pieces already in place... great HC/staff, OL, good D

-Rivers rode pine on a 12-4 playoff team with an All-Pro RB, FB, TE and good OL.

-Eli... fair enough but he had a few good pieces already in place then they had a few very good drafts. ATL could have some similar success and luck via the draft over the next few years but they would be hard pressed to duplicate the Giants success especially in 2007.

[piratesownninjas]

About the comparison to Eli/Ben/Rivers...

-Ben was drafted onto a team with many pieces already in place... great HC/staff, OL, good D

-Rivers rode pine on a 12-4 playoff team with an All-Pro RB, FB, TE and good OL.

-Eli... fair enough but he had a few good pieces already in place then they had a few very good drafts. ATL could have some similar success and luck via the draft over the next few years but they would be hard pressed to duplicate the Giants success especially in 2007.

Those are pre-draft grades they were given by scouts... Teams they went to has nothing to do with the grade.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

+1

The knock on Brohm became that he was a 'system' QB.

 

Well, Ryan had one year in a pass heavy 'system' and is the second coming.

 

What I hear from most commentators and Dimitroff himself in justifying the pick is that Ryan has the intangibles... leadership and intelligence. So he's a good interview and someone you want holding the compass? How about can he have a long successful career? As highly drafted QBs go, as drafting any QB goes... probably not.

 

Dorsey is a ten year starter at his position and doesn't need 3-5 other good pieces to play at a high level.

 

About the comparison to Eli/Ben/Rivers...

-Ben was drafted onto a team with many pieces already in place... great HC/staff, OL, good D

-Rivers rode pine on a 12-4 playoff team with an All-Pro RB, FB, TE and good OL.

-Eli... fair enough but he had a few good pieces already in place then they had a few very good drafts. ATL could have some similar success and luck via the draft over the next few years but they would be hard pressed to duplicate the Giants success especially in 2007.

 

im of the opinion that the falcons should have gone the dorsey route...and looked to move back into the first for flacco, brohm, or henne(wouldnt have even had to for brohm or henne...lol)....i think baker was a huge reach...i know there was a run on tackles but considering it was a reach and what he had to give up to make that reach...i just wasnt impressed.....i dont dislike ryan...and dimitroff must really love him....i was just expecting more out of dimitroff there with the 3 and the three 2nd rounders....figured alot of people would start following suit of what john butler pulled off years ago with drew brees....although i think dimitroff did ok with his 2nd and three 3rd rounders

Edited April 27, 2008 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[piratesownninjas]

im of the opinion that the falcons should have gone the dorsey route...and looked to move back into the first for flacco, brohm, or henne(wouldnt have even had to for brohm or henne...lol)....i think baker was a huge reach...i know there was a run on tackles but considering it was a reach and what he had to give up to make that reach...i just wasnt impressed.....i dont dislike ryan...and dimitroff must really love him....i was just expecting more out of dimitroff there with the 3 and the three 2nd rounders....figured alot of people would start following suit of what john butler pulled off years ago with drew brees....although i think dimitroff did ok with his 2nd and three 3rd rounders

The problem with saying that they could of got Henne or Brohm in the first is that at the time it was thought that either or both of them could go in the first, and you still have no one to block for him.

Baker coming into the season was the number 1 projected tackle, ahead of Jake Long. He was injured all season. I don't think it's a reach at all. His body of work speaks for itself in my opinion.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

The problem with saying that they could of got Henne or Brohm in the first is that at the time it was thought that either or both of them could go in the first, and you still have no one to block for him.

Baker coming into the season was the number 1 projected tackle, ahead of Jake Long. He was injured all season. I don't think it's a reach at all. His body of work speaks for itself in my opinion.

 

i cant totally disagree with ya....there wasnt crap left for tackles after the first...maybe im being too critical of baker

[piratesownninjas]

i cant totally disagree with ya....there wasnt crap left for tackles after the first...maybe im being too critical of baker

I'm just not sold that someone who was dominant for 3 years, then gets injured and isn't fully healthy until late in the season. Suddenly is the 5-6th tackle in the draft... He;s one of the most athletic linemen in the draft, and a great pass protector. He's not the best run blocker, but can flourish in a zone blocking scheme, which I believe Atlanta still uses. It's all about how a particular player fits within a system. I think this is a great fit.

Edited April 27, 2008 by piratesownninjas

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

I'm just not sold that someone who was dominant for 3 years, then gets injured and isn't fully healthy until late in the season. Suddenly is the 5-6th tackle in the draft... He;s one of the most athletic linemen in the draft, and a great pass protector. He's not the best run blocker, but can flourish in a zone blocking scheme, which I believe Atlanta still uses. It's all about how a particular player fits within a system. I think this is a great fit.

 

i couldnt agree more about finding guys that fit in with your system....i always found it funny how the jets spent picks on dewayne robertson and jonathan vilma who seem perfect for the 4-3 cover 2 scheme...then go and hire a guy who runs a completely different system that requires a different set of guys....i mean now more than ever its easier to adjust to that kind of transition with free agency and such(like grabbing kris jenkins via trade and calvin pace via free agency)...just seems like alot of wasted resources

[Randall]

There were alot of Packer fans that thought that TE Keller was going to be their pick. How ironic is it that they trade that pick to the Jets so that they can pick him.

 

 

Then they weren't paying attention to what Ted Thompson does. I like his other 2 picks better.

[kingfish247]

I'm just not sold that someone who was dominant for 3 years, then gets injured and isn't fully healthy until late in the season. Suddenly is the 5-6th tackle in the draft... He;s one of the most athletic linemen in the draft, and a great pass protector. He's not the best run blocker, but can flourish in a zone blocking scheme, which I believe Atlanta still uses. It's all about how a particular player fits within a system. I think this is a great fit.

I'm pretty sure that the Falcons are not using ZBS anymore.

 

I'm fine with the 'reach' on Baker. There was an unexpected run on OL in the middle of the first and they did what they needed to do to get a quality OL. Behind them, I think Houston really got hosed on their trade to get back into the OL run.

 

They started the day with 4 picks in the first 2 rounds so they could've drafted 4 players instead of 3. Ok, it seemed like they had to move up to get in on the OL run. Fair enough. But they could've taken Dorsey, used their 2nd rounders to move up like they did to snag an OL, and still had a 2nd rounder to take Brohm or Henne. Instead they got a QB, OL, and an LB that might not even start.

 

About Ryan's grade... his grade doesn't matter if he's not in a position to succeed or contribute now. I'm just saying that while Eli/Ben/Rivers graded out as high as Ryan the difference with those other 3 is that they were put in a position, with the help around them, to succeed and play at a high level right away.