My first draft of the year

[DMD]

Just had my first draft of the year for FF Index magazine. Always fascinating since it is the first look at how others are ranking players and the most surprising of all by far. It was 22 rounds in a BEST BALL format which means your best scores for the week in their position count. Standard QB-2RB-3WR-TE-PK-DEF and the scoring is standard NO PPR. My intent is building a team that will have players combine each week to produce good scores and is different than picking weekly starters. I prefer a mixture of solid players and high-risk/high reward players. I like deeper WRs that could go off for a week or two for example. Each week you are given wins and losses based on how high your team scored of the 12.

 

The first three rounds:

 

1.01 RB L. Tomlinson

1.02 RB Adrian Peterson

1.03 RB Steven Jackson

1.04 RB Frank Gore

1.05 RB Brian Westbrook

1.06 RB Joseph Addai

1.07 RB Marion Barber III

1.08 RB Clinton Portis

1.09 RB Marshawn Lynch

1.1 RB Willis McGahee

1.11 RB Larry Johnson

1.12 QB Peyton Manning

2.01 WR Terrell Owens

2.02 RB Ryan Grant

2.03 RB Jamal Lewis

2.04 WR Randy Moss

2.05 QB Tom Brady

2.06 WR Reggie Wayne

2.07 QB Tony Romo

2.08 RB Laurence Maroney

2.09 WR Braylon Edwards

2.1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew

2.11 WR Larry Fitzgerald

2.12 WR Andre' Johnson

3.01 WR Steve Smith

3.02 RB Reggie Bush

3.03 RB Brandon Jacobs

3.04 RB Earnest Graham

3.05 QB Drew Brees

3.06 WR Houshmandzadeh

3.07 RB Michael Turner

3.08 WR Torry Holt

3.09 RB Darren McFadden

3.1 WR Marques Colston

3.11 RB Willie Parker

3.12 RB Jonathan Stewart

 

I like my team (like every one likes their own) and I think it is definitely competitive. To win this league (and I have before) you need at least a good set at every position to produce high scores and landing that player that surprises is very big. Since it is non-PPR, QBs and RBs are very valuable (QBs in particular take up most of the top 10 players) and DEF are very valuable here with 2 pt sacks, etc. My team:

 

QB Drew Brees - wanted Romo in the second but missed him Brees in the 3rd was pretty good

QB Matt Schaub - maybe 7th round or 8th. Love the upside

QB JaMarcus Russell - last QB had to be someone always on field. QBs go pretty fast in league

RB Brian Westbrook - wanted Jackson here. Almost took Addai. Still wondering if I should have.

RB Laurence Maroney - Since Romo was gone, went with best RB in 2nd. I feel better about Maroney this year. Not sure why yet.

RB Rashard Mendenhall - Got him later than I should have, nice upside I think

RB Ryan Torrain - in 12th? swing for the fence with DEN rookie who is getting talked up. 3 good games this format is okay!

RB Warrick Dunn - late pick, what the heck

WR Roy Williams - wasn't thrilled but in 4th had to start on WR

WR Roddy White - okay pick. Did well in '06 with a carousel of crappy QBs

WR Jerry Porter - JAX paid him #1 money. Could be WR3 good.

WR Darrell Jackson - mag draft, had to take the name player.

WR Devin Thomas - I like him more than evidently anyone in the draft. Only rookie WR I think I like at all

WR Robert Meachem - Healthy and starting over

WR Andre Davis - again - gimmee two or three decent games and I am happy

TE Todd Heap - TEs dont score much and I waited. Happy to get him where I did

TE Randy McMichael - late pick. I think he fell with Al Saunders in STL

PK Jeff Reed - blah

PK Matt Bryant - blah blah

DEF NE - Took NE as the 2nd or 3rd DEF. Most teams undervalued what DEF score in this league.

DEF DAL - See above

DEF DEN - See above

 

For a best ball format, I'm pretty happy with what I got. I may post more about the draft later when I get the results. I do not write down more than the above and it was BY PHONE (hello the 90's). And it only took 1 hour and 20 minutes for 22 rounds!

 

Always the most surprising and interesting draft of the year to me. What surprises do you see?

[loaf]

I'm surprised at LJ at 1.11 and Earnest Graham and 3.04. Grant at 2.02...Lewis in the second

but I haven't done anything close to ranking or studying or paying any FA movements any mind so...I might as well be a newbie

[DMD]

I was surprised by those three as well. I considered LJ at #5 briefly. Graham and his contract scare me too much so I thought 3.04 was early. I also figured Lewis for later first round, particularly since this is not a PPR league.

[Outshined]

I'm surprised at LJ at 1.11

 

Too high or too low?

 

I think I would have taken Moss, Owens, Brady and Manning ahead of him. I think his stats may be below what they were last year...

[Randall]

Jacobs at 3.03 seems late. I'd like to get him there.

[Outshined]

LJ's YPC:

 

2004: 4.8

2005: 5.2

2006: 4.3

2007: 3.5

 

Are those numbers alarming to anybody???

[DMD]

LJ's YPC:

 

2004: 4.8

2005: 5.2

2006: 4.3

2007: 3.5

 

Are those numbers alarming to anybody???

 

One of the most difficult shifts in thinking for people into fantasy football is accepting diminished skills or situations. There are always exceptions to the rule of course, but the context of what a player excelled in has to be taken into account. Culpepper is a good example. Trust me - that is one of the hardest things I think to do mentally is to ignore what happened a season or two past in favor of what the current situation is.

[Sturphy]

Anyone else think 1.07 for Marion Barber is a bit absurd?

 

With Felix and Tashard and him not signed yet?

[Wolverines Fan]

Anyone else think 1.07 for Marion Barber is a bit absurd?

 

Yes. I'd feel better about Barber as a No. 2 back.

 

P. Manning before Brady? Both studs, but I think the Colts are going for a more balance attack, while Brady will throw, throw, throw with an easy schedule.

[DMD]

Anyone else think 1.07 for Marion Barber is a bit absurd?

 

With Felix and Tashard and him not signed yet?

 

Yeah, I would have been really comfortable with him in the third round but even the second round to me is a little debateable at this point.

[TDFFFreak]

Boy, Willie Parker's stock has dropped if this draft is any indication of fantasy overall...

[Randall]

Boy, Willie Parker's stock has dropped if this draft is any indication of fantasy overall...

 

His ADP isn't that far off. 30.

[TDFFFreak]

His ADP isn't that far off. 30.

I just didn't realize that Parker's lack of TDs hit his value that hard, but I assume the Steelers drafting Mendy didn't help much.

[CMac83]

Just a few observations from me...

 

-Marion Barber is a legit first round pick. He's going to get 250-300 touches, he doesn't have much of an injury history, he's on a great offense, and he gets the ball at the stripe. 1400 total yards and 12 scores seem like reasonable expectations, and there's always the possibility that he'll go off for 16 TDs again.

 

-Parker in the 3rd is a surprise to me. He had 1480 and 2 last year (15 games), but he's coming off an injury, his offensive line has arguably gotten worse, and Mendenhall will be taking away a lot of touches, especially at the goal line.

 

-Thomas Jones is a better bet than FWP, in my opinion, and should be a late 3rd round pick. TJ had comparable numbers last season (1330 and 2), his offensive line has improved, and he's the back who will be in there at the goal line.

 

-To me, there's a clear-cut top 5 this year, and then after that you can rank them however you want. LJ should be in the "after that" discussion. Frank Gore at 1.04 is crazy to me with Westbrook and Addai on the board. Westy and Addai are in much more proven offenses with better offensive lines.

Edited May 10, 2008 by CMac83

[DMD]

-Marion Barber is a legit first round pick. He's going to get 250-300 touches, he doesn't have much of an injury history, he's on a great offense, and he gets the ball at the stripe. 1400 total yards and 12 scores seem like reasonable expectations, and there's always the possibility that he'll go off for 16 TDs again.

 

I think expected 250 t0 300 touches from Barber may be optimistic. He has never had more than 204 carries (last year and 136 in 2006) and the Cowboys used their first round pick to select the perfect complement to him, not a back-up (which will be Choice). I can see Barber getting maybe a few more carries but you could argue the case that he ends up with less. And certainly less than the 44 catches he had last year. Under OC Jason Garrett, he has carried the ball 20 times in a game only once and that was with Julius Jones there who the coaching staff had soured on the previous season and couldn't trade him away. Now they will have a player that was their #1 object in the draft - a complementary runner only - to pair with Barber. No doubt Barber gets the goal line and short yardage stuff. All the other touches are much more debateable. If Dallas wanted to use Barber as a FT back, they would have. But they do not see him like that. For one, they always talk that he is just too slow to be every down. I live here, I hear about it all the time.

[CMac83]

Even if you believe Barber's workload will be the same, here are his stats from similar job-splits:

 

2006: 850 total yards, 16 TDs

2007: 1250 total yards, 12 TDs

 

Averages out to 1050 yards and 14 TDs, which are fine numbers for a late first round back these days. And when you add in the potential for a slightly increased workload, his value goes up a little more. I have him ranked in the same mini-group as Gore, LJ, and Lynch. Anywhere from 1.06 to 1.09 makes sense to me. Barber also had 248 total touches last season while backing up J Jones for the first part of the season. Maybe you're right and 300 touches are a little unreasonable, but 250-275 is still a fine range.

 

When you look at the other options, they seem tougher to bank on. Can LJ regain his form behind an offensive line that will likely need some time to gel? Can Gore stay healthy and rebound with that disastrous Niners offense? It seems much more likely that Barber will give you his expected RB1 value than the other guys. And safety should be priority #1 with first round picks.

Edited May 10, 2008 by CMac83

[TheShiznit]

Not that I am all that surprised, but Chad Johnson was not drafted in the first three rounds. My question is was he taken at all in this draft...and if so where?

[DMD]

Not that I am all that surprised, but Chad Johnson was not drafted in the first three rounds. My question is was he taken at all in this draft...and if so where?

 

He went in the fourth before the 4.08 or I would have taken him. Considering what he could do, he's worth a 4th round pick right now in my esimation.

[dirtdickens]

Even if you believe Barber's workload will be the same, here are his stats from similar job-splits:

 

2006: 850 total yards, 16 TDs

2007: 1250 total yards, 12 TDs

 

Averages out to 1050 yards and 14 TDs, which are fine numbers for a late first round back these days. And when you add in the potential for a slightly increased workload, his value goes up a little more. I have him ranked in the same mini-group as Gore, LJ, and Lynch. Anywhere from 1.06 to 1.09 makes sense to me. Barber also had 248 total touches last season while backing up J Jones for the first part of the season. Maybe you're right and 300 touches are a little unreasonable, but 250-275 is still a fine range.

 

When you look at the other options, they seem tougher to bank on. Can LJ regain his form behind an offensive line that will likely need some time to gel? Can Gore stay healthy and rebound with that disastrous Niners offense? It seems much more likely that Barber will give you his expected RB1 value than the other guys. And safety should be priority #1 with first round picks.

 

I am with you in this thinking. I believe PON and myself have a bet as to whether MB3 will outscore LJ and Gore this year. I really feel Barber is a better option than some of the later 1st RB picks regardless of Jones coming in. The goaline carries are what put him over the top.

[Savage Beatings]

Braylon Edwards may have gone a bit too early IMO.

 

Not sure about TO as the #1 WR off the board either. When he produces, he's one of the best, but he can also give you a few weeks of nothing.

 

Manning at 1.12? There's one in every draft.

 

I see a deep list of Tier 2 RB's this year. Grab your first stud RB1, and then you can probably afford to wait on your RB2 until 3rd or 4th round this season.

[BeeR]

Frank Gore at 1.04 is crazy to me

Finally. I can't believe it took this long for someone to say that. what the fark?

 

And when you add in the potential for a slightly increased workload,

And you're doing that because.......

 

Brady over Manning also blows me away, as does MJD that high.

[DMD]

I was pretty shocked when Manning and Owens went before Brady and Moss. Something about being the most prolific single-season tandem in the history of the NFL and the most productive passer in the history of the NFL would seem to deserve a #1 status. I mean if they are only 75% as good, they would still be #1.

[piratesownninjas]

Even if you believe Barber's workload will be the same, here are his stats from similar job-splits:

 

2006: 850 total yards, 16 TDs

2007: 1250 total yards, 12 TDs

 

Averages out to 1050 yards and 14 TDs, which are fine numbers for a late first round back these days. And when you add in the potential for a slightly increased workload, his value goes up a little more. I have him ranked in the same mini-group as Gore, LJ, and Lynch. Anywhere from 1.06 to 1.09 makes sense to me. Barber also had 248 total touches last season while backing up J Jones for the first part of the season. Maybe you're right and 300 touches are a little unreasonable, but 250-275 is still a fine range.

 

When you look at the other options, they seem tougher to bank on. Can LJ regain his form behind an offensive line that will likely need some time to gel? Can Gore stay healthy and rebound with that disastrous Niners offense? It seems much more likely that Barber will give you his expected RB1 value than the other guys. And safety should be priority #1 with first round picks.

The problem with taking him that high is that his ceiling is much lower than Gore or Johnson. DMD's points are dead on. If he was going to be the every down back, they wouldn't have taken Jones and Choice where they did.

I think Barber is good for 12-14 TD's a year, but his yardage doesn't do much for me... If he doesn't hit pay dirt, his numbers are weak, and I don't want that with my first round pick.

[piratesownninjas]

I am with you in this thinking. I believe PON and myself have a bet as to whether MB3 will outscore LJ and Gore this year. I really feel Barber is a better option than some of the later 1st RB picks regardless of Jones coming in. The goaline carries are what put him over the top.

Did we ever finalize the bet? I'm all for one, just don't remember the parameters...

 

I was pretty shocked when Manning and Owens went before Brady and Moss. Something about being the most prolific single-season tandem in the history of the NFL and the most productive passer in the history of the NFL would seem to deserve a #1 status. I mean if they are only 75% as good, they would still be #1.

I think it's surprising, but not shocking as far as Manning going off the board ahead of Brady. You know exactly what you're getting from Manning, where as Brady has climbed his way up to the top... Both of these guys have thrown for 50 and almost 50 td's in a year... They're both capable, but I highly doubt we see either of them do that again.

[CMac83]

The reason I'm adding a little bit of extra potential for Barber is because he averaged 16 touches per game from Week 7 on, which translates out to 256 touches for a season - A small increase over last year. I think his TDs will go up as well. I agree that maybe his ceiling isn't as high as LJ's or Gore's, but again, he's certainly much more of a sure bet than those two guys.