My first draft of the year

[Wolverines Fan]

I was pretty shocked when Manning and Owens went before Brady and Moss. Something about being the most prolific single-season tandem in the history of the NFL and the most productive passer in the history of the NFL would seem to deserve a #1 status. I mean if they are only 75% as good, they would still be #1.

 

Maybe some are worried about the Super Bowl Bridesmaid Curse.

 

 

Hey DMD, Fred Taylor really came on at the end of last season. I know he's getting up there in years and has the injury history. Where was he drafted?

[DMD]

Maybe some are worried about the Super Bowl Bridesmaid Curse.

 

 

Hey DMD, Fred Taylor really came on at the end of last season. I know he's getting up there in years and has the injury history. Where was he drafted?

 

7.04 for Taylor. Matt Forte lasted until 7.07 which was a little later than I thought someone would take him. Kevin Smith went 5.06

 

Chris Johnson went 9.09. I took Ryan Torain at 12.05 Benson went 11.10

[Randall]

7.04 for Taylor. Matt Forte lasted until 7.07 which was a little later than I thought someone would take him. Kevin Smith went 5.06

 

Chris Johnson went 9.09. I took Ryan Torain at 12.05 Benson went 11.10

 

 

Where did Steve Slaton go?

[dirtdickens]

What were the parameters of the bet? I am still in on this if we hash it out. What are we doing a sig bet?

[DMD]

Where did Steve Slaton go?

 

Waiver wire. Undrafted.

[BeeR]

Where did Mike Hart go

 

(a lot of Colt fans are peeing their pants about what a great RB he's going to be - I'll be happy if he just makes the team and contributes at all as a backup)

[DMD]

Hart was undrafted but someone took Dominic Rhodes at the 13.12 pick

[Bronco Billy]

I was pretty shocked when Manning and Owens went before Brady and Moss. Something about being the most prolific single-season tandem in the history of the NFL and the most productive passer in the history of the NFL would seem to deserve a #1 status. I mean if they are only 75% as good, they would still be #1.

 

It's all about regressing to the mean. When Manning hit 49 TDs, people were expecting 40-45 TDs at least the following year. What did they get? Manning dropping back to 28 TDs - which is right around his mean.

 

Brady & Moss will both most likely regress back. It doesn't mean they aren't studs. It does mean that they'll both be likely overvalued next year. When I drafted Moss as my #1 WR in ATAP, I did so thinking he would put up a 80/1350/14 season, not a 100/1500/20 season, and set his value accordingly. Because the ATAP guys are more savvy, they didn't jump on him like he was equivalent to a top 5 RB (although Brady went just before him in the 1st...).

[Bronco Billy]

BTW - thanks for sharing, David. Some great fodder for off-season discussion.

 

If I were the owner who drafted Barber in the 1st round, I'd be really unhappy right now.

[DMD]

I was shocked at the Manning/Owens picks because having a draft this early usually means most teams are drafting like it is still 2007. It is amazing to see the changes between that May draft and what happens in August.

[BeeR]

Obviously Brady is no more likely to have a repeat performance than Manning was - but he's produced well every year even w/so-so WRs and with Moss back is IMO very unlikely to drop below 30 TDs, esp with a suspect running game. Given that and the Colts' "iffy" WR situation (for them), I am amazed Manning went before Brady simply because IMO it makes no sense. Owens vs Moss is not as clear-cut, although I am surprised at that one too - I think people will key on Moss more this year and Owens is not only a top WR but very reliable stats-wise.

 

(PS I wanted Brady and Moss last year cuz I "knew" they would do well - but got stuck in an overbid on LJ and then people bid totally illogically, throwing me off)

 

Like your team DMD, minus Maroney. 'bout them KJ talks

 

[Puddy]

Obviously Brady is no more likely to have a repeat performance than Manning was - but he's produced well every year even w/so-so WRs and with Moss back is IMO very unlikely to drop below 30 TDs, esp with a suspect running game. Given that and the Colts' "iffy" WR situation (for them), I am amazed Manning went before Brady simply because IMO it makes no sense. Owens vs Moss is not as clear-cut, although I am surprised at that one too - I think people will key on Moss more this year and Owens is not only a top WR but very reliable stats-wise.

 

(PS I wanted Brady and Moss last year cuz I "knew" they would do well - but got stuck in an overbid on LJ and then people bid totally illogically, throwing me off)

 

Like your team DMD, minus Maroney. 'bout them KJ talks

 

 

I hate your font.

[Randall]

Obviously Brady is no more likely to have a repeat performance than Manning was - but he's produced well every year even w/so-so WRs and with Moss back is IMO very unlikely to drop below 30 TDs, esp with a suspect running game. Given that and the Colts' "iffy" WR situation (for them), I am amazed Manning went before Brady simply because IMO it makes no sense. Owens vs Moss is not as clear-cut, although I am surprised at that one too - I think people will key on Moss more this year and Owens is not only a top WR but very reliable stats-wise.

 

(PS I wanted Brady and Moss last year cuz I "knew" they would do well - but got stuck in an overbid on LJ and then people bid totally illogically, throwing me off)

 

Like your team DMD, minus Maroney. 'bout them KJ talks

 

 

 

 

That's because you didn't videotape your opponents making their pre-selections.

 

According to BB this wasn't illegal.

[The Wolf]

7.04 for Taylor. Matt Forte lasted until 7.07 which was a little later than I thought someone would take him. Kevin Smith went 5.06

 

Chris Johnson went 9.09. I took Ryan Torain at 12.05 Benson went 11.10

 

Excellent value right there DMD...

[Caveman_Nick]

Finally. I can't believe it took this long for someone to say that. what the fark?

 

Have you seen his schedule?

[BeeR]

 

Have you seen his schedule?

Yeah. I still wouldn't even think of him at 1.04. Does anyone really think SF will have that much better of an O this year, not to mention Mr pass-happy Martz in town? How many beers had that particular team owner had before he drafted?

[Sgt Ryan]

I think expected 250 t0 300 touches from Barber may be optimistic. He has never had more than 204 carries (last year and 136 in 2006) and the Cowboys used their first round pick to select the perfect complement to him, not a back-up (which will be Choice). I can see Barber getting maybe a few more carries but you could argue the case that he ends up with less. And certainly less than the 44 catches he had last year. Under OC Jason Garrett, he has carried the ball 20 times in a game only once and that was with Julius Jones there who the coaching staff had soured on the previous season and couldn't trade him away. Now they will have a player that was their #1 object in the draft - a complementary runner only - to pair with Barber. No doubt Barber gets the goal line and short yardage stuff. All the other touches are much more debateable. If Dallas wanted to use Barber as a FT back, they would have. But they do not see him like that. For one, they always talk that he is just too slow to be every down. I live here, I hear about it all the time.

 

 

I couldnt disagree more. First, Felix Jones wont be starting games, and he certainly wont be finishing them. Last yr, Julius Jones was the starter, while Barber got the bulk of his carries in the 2nd half. This yr, Barber will start and finish, and Felix Jones will be a COP back, and used in 3rd and long situations, or with both backs lined up in the same backfield. 204 carries for Barber will be the floor, not the ceiling. Id expect 250 touches minimum, in carries alone. Dallas didnt draft Felix Jones to be a starter, and they do not believe he can be a feature back. Wade Phillips was quoted as saying "The Cowboys are committed to Barber being the starter, head coach Wade Phillips saying he will be the team's "workhorse" after Julius Jones' departure. And they used that first-round pick on Felix Jones so they could inject some speed into last year's second-highest scoring offense in club history. "

 

 

BTW, I live here too.

[piratesownninjas]

Where did Mike Hart go

 

(a lot of Colt fans are peeing their pants about what a great RB he's going to be - I'll be happy if he just makes the team and contributes at all as a backup)

Hart will make the team. For sure.

 

Yeah. I still wouldn't even think of him at 1.04. Does anyone really think SF will have that much better of an O this year, not to mention Mr pass-happy Martz in town? How many beers had that particular team owner had before he drafted?

Look at what Martz did two years ago before Kevin Jones was injured... Look at what he did with Faulk... Gore is far more talented than Jones, and will get a TON of catches.

[dirtdickens]

PON are we set on the bet?

PPR

standard scoring

 

MB3 will outscore both LJ and Gore this season. Are we doing a sig bet?

[BeeR]

Look at what Martz did two years ago before Kevin Jones was injured

?? Martz did a whole lotta nothing in DET (not that it was all his fault).

 

... Look at what he did with Faulk... Gore is far more talented than Jones, and will get a TON of catches.

? What "he did" with Faulk? You or I could've had a stud O going with those Ram teams. Hell Faulk was producing on far less talented Colt teams. Sorry, I'm underwhelmed by mr offensive genius.

[DMD]

I would agree that Gore should be getting a career high in receptions. And Martz can put together a very productive offense if he has all the pieces and in San Francisco, he has almost none starting with a glaring problem with quarterback that will doom the offense.

[piratesownninjas]

PON are we set on the bet?

PPR

standard scoring

 

MB3 will outscore both LJ and Gore this season. Are we doing a sig bet?

Sounds good to me. We just need to figure out the length of the sig line.

[piratesownninjas]

?? Martz did a whole lotta nothing in DET (not that it was all his fault).

 

? What "he did" with Faulk? You or I could've had a stud O going with those Ram teams. Hell Faulk was producing on far less talented Colt teams. Sorry, I'm underwhelmed by mr offensive genius.

Kevin Jones was on his way to a massive season in 06 before his Lis Franc injury. Up until he broke his foot he was on pace for 918 rushing yards, 693 receiving yards off of 80 receptions and 11 touchdowns... From Kevin Jones... Jones only mustered 3.8 yards per carry that year, so if we use Gore's average and the same amount of touches he'll rush for 1,184 rushing yards (I think Gore will have way more attempts as he's a better back)

If he can at least match Jones reception totals he's right at 1877 yards. He has a much better nose for the endzone and is an all around better player than Jones. Martz is very much pass happy, but his runningbacks, when healthy do produce. To say he did nothing in Detroit isn't totally accurate.

 

And if you're going to use that as an argument for Faulk, then we can never use OC's in a discussion to make an impact. To say Martz had no impact on Faulk is a bit out there.

[Bronco Billy]

I couldnt disagree more. First, Felix Jones wont be starting games, and he certainly wont be finishing them. Last yr, Julius Jones was the starter, while Barber got the bulk of his carries in the 2nd half. This yr, Barber will start and finish, and Felix Jones will be a COP back, and used in 3rd and long situations, or with both backs lined up in the same backfield. 204 carries for Barber will be the floor, not the ceiling. Id expect 250 touches minimum, in carries alone. Dallas didnt draft Felix Jones to be a starter, and they do not believe he can be a feature back. Wade Phillips was quoted as saying "The Cowboys are committed to Barber being the starter, head coach Wade Phillips saying he will be the team's "workhorse" after Julius Jones' departure. And they used that first-round pick on Felix Jones so they could inject some speed into last year's second-highest scoring offense in club history. "

 

Normally, I'd agree with this simply because it is a rational position.

 

That said, I'm highly skeptical. It's not like Barber had a breakout year last year - he was outperforming Julius Jones badly in '06 and yet Jones got the lion's share of the carries at RB. Last year Barber put significant distance between his performance & Jones', yet Jones started all 16 regular season games and still got 164 carries to Barber's 204. There's no logical reason for that given how badly Jones was performing. Jones should have been benched by week 5 at the latest, yet there he was absorbing a tremendous amount of work.

 

Unless Felix Jones is a turd the magnitude that Julius Jones was, I don't see how he doesn't get at least as much work as Julius Jones did last year. And if Felix Jones is getting that much work, that's that much less that Barber will be getting. Now, there is a caveat - Felix Jones may just be a turd. He is very easy to tackle when a defender gets contact on him and in college he relied on his speed to beat opponents to the edge, which will be negated significantly in the pro game, and he won't be successful at all between the tackles (see Bush, Reggie - and Felix Jones is not nearly as talented as Bush is).

 

Still, for Barber to get as much work as you are predicting, Jerrah will have to sour on Felix Jones quite a bit - which I don't see. That means Felix Jones will most probably get as much work as Julius Jones did last year, if not more. That limits Barber significantly.

[kingfish247]

RBs taken in the first 3 rounds

1.01 RB L. Tomlinson

1.02 RB Adrian Peterson

1.03 RB Steven Jackson

1.04 RB Frank Gore

1.05 RB Brian Westbrook

1.06 RB Joseph Addai

1.07 RB Marion Barber III

1.08 RB Clinton Portis

1.09 RB Marshawn Lynch

1.1 RB Willis McGahee

1.11 RB Larry Johnson

2.02 RB Ryan Grant

2.03 RB Jamal Lewis

2.08 RB Laurence Maroney

2.1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew

3.02 RB Reggie Bush

3.03 RB Brandon Jacobs

3.04 RB Earnest Graham

3.07 RB Michael Turner

3.09 RB Darren McFadden

3.11 RB Willie Parker

3.12 RB Jonathan Stewart

This is definitely shaping up to be a weird year for drafting RBs.

 

I can see many FF drafters chasing the big passing stats from last year leaving some good RB2s into the 3rd or even 4th round.

 

Maroney, MJD, Jacobs, Turner, and Stewart are risky as RB2s to pass on a QB1 (Brees) or solid WR2 (Housh or Colston)... for a bunch of reasons (durability, team situations, opportunity, QB situations).