Been doing some early redraft mocks

[Scourge]

Here is the first 3 rounds..

 

Round 1

1 hinkle Tom Brady (QB NE)

2 gridiron gals* LaDainian Tomlinson (RB SD)

3 Tuffys Giants Peyton Manning (QB IND)

4 addict Steven Jackson (RB STL)

5 Mafia Adrian Peterson (RB MIN)

6 Scourge* Brian Westbrook (RB PHI)

7 Bulls Frank Gore (RB SF)

8 Auto-Pilot Team 1* Clinton Portis (RB WAS)

9 Demolition Randy Moss (WR NE)

10 biggie* Joseph Addai (RB IND)

 

Round 2

11 biggie* Larry Johnson (RB KC)

12 Demolition Reggie Wayne (WR IND)

13 Auto-Pilot Team 1* Tony Romo (QB DAL)

14 Bulls Willis McGahee (RB BAL)

15 Scourge Marion Barber (RB DAL)

16 Mafia Braylon Edwards (WR CLE)

17 addict Terrell Owens (WR DAL)

18 Tuffys Giants Willie Parker (RB PIT)

19 gridiron gals* Drew Brees (QB NO)

20 hinkle Plaxico Burress (WR NYG)

 

Round 3

21 hinkle Jamal Lewis (RB CLE)

22 gridiron gals* Earnest Graham (RB TB)

23 Tuffys Giants Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)

24 addict Marques Colston (WR NO)

25 Mafia Derek Anderson (QB CLE)

26 Scourge Andre Johnson (WR HOU)

27 Bulls T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR CIN)

28 Auto-Pilot Team 1* Marshawn Lynch (RB BUF)

29 Demolition* Julius Jones (RB SEA)

30 biggie* Ryan Grant (RB GB)

 

Now, I have seen Brady go #1 overall a couple of times already. And no doubt that what he did last year was amazing. Would you guys take him over LT or AD?

 

The other interesting aspect is that (aside from Manning who was taken too high as well) after the top 5 picks, the next teir is just insanely loaded with ???? at RB... I am thinking that this is the year, if I pick 5-10, that I grab a couple stud WRs off the bat and then load up on teir 2 and 3 RBs and platoon those scrubs based on matchups.

 

I know it is only May, but this is a FFBL forum, is it not.. Now that the NBA and NHL playoffs are winding down, I need that football fix. What do you guys think? After LT, AD, SJax and Westbrook, how do you round out the rest of the top 10 at RB.. Where does Brady fit in, and where do you start taking WRs this year?

[tazinib1]

Unless QB's get 6 points for TD's, QB's going 1-2 is insanely stupid. I had the 1.9 recently and took Brady because the top tier RB's were gone. Grant going at the bottom of round 3? Wow I took him at 2.4.

 

WR's are loaded this year and IMO you can still get studs in rounds 3-4.

 

What I am finding out, however, that is in leagues that have a RB/WR flex, more people are opting for a WR over a RB. Contrary to years past.

[Kansas State 2000]

First off there is never a wrong time to talk FF.

There is no way I'm taking Brady over LT or AD. He had a great year and may have another but I go RB at 1-2.

Randy Moss is once again a top 10 pick, TO is also a high pick (2nd) depending some on Gleens return or not.

I'm still looking over RB's but I'm taking AD over Jackson this year.

 

There are some intersting issues at RB this year ...

Parker's number with Mendenhall added.

Barber as the #1 back.

LJ comeback?

 

There are others but it's May.

Edited May 23, 2008 by Kansas State 2000

[Outshined]

Unless QB's get 6 points for TD's, QB's going 1-2 is insanely stupid. I had the 1.9 recently and took Brady because the top tier RB's were gone. Grant going at the bottom of round 3? Wow I took him at 2.4.

 

3.6 in a 12 team mock...

Edited May 23, 2008 by Outshined

[BeeR]

Unless QB's get 6 points for TD's, QB's going 1-2 is insanely stupid.

Replace the number 6 with 50 and I think you have it

 

This year does look really uncertain and I'm sure Brady will do great again, but I doubt he gets even 40 TDs. However about 30-35 looks like a near lock and 40 isn't exactly impossible, plus he's really keeping the INTs down, so I would take him pretty high (ie pay a pretty penny in our auction).

 

The top RBs are about as questionable as you can expect top RBs to get I think. LT has the age/wear thing, Peterson is so hot n cold, Jackson is an injury question, etc.

[negativeyardage]

running back isnt as deep as wrs and good qbs can be had in the later rounds, so i would use my first pick on a rb to make sure i got a good one (a top 10 back at least, otherwise brady/manning or top wr might be better)...what is the scoring system? is it ppr?

[Big Country]

Unless QB's get 6 points for TD's, QB's going 1-2 is insanely stupid. I had the 1.9 recently and took Brady because the top tier RB's were gone. Grant going at the bottom of round 3? Wow I took him at 2.4.

 

WR's are loaded this year and IMO you can still get studs in rounds 3-4.

 

What I am finding out, however, that is in leagues that have a RB/WR flex, more people are opting for a WR over a RB. Contrary to years past.

 

I'll respond to a couple of these points, as yours lead to some very good conversation points around draft strategy/theory.

 

First, and I BeeR alluded to this, the 6 point TDs have very little affect on value. Now, if this is a start 2 QB league, and you can start only one RB, then there can be valid arguments made for the number of QBs taken so early. Short of that or some other odd wrinkle that is not stated in the OP, then the taking of a QB that early is ludicrous, particularly this year where it appears they may be an even lesser stock of true quality non-RBBC RBs.

 

I agree with the WRs being available later on. I don't think true studs will be there that late, but it appears, at least on paper at this point, that there is a much larger bubble of tier 3 types (in my tiering, these are still quality WR1 type players) that put up solid week to week numbers that allows teams to wait a bit on WRs.

 

For the last point relating to the flex, this is likely mostly related to the increasing frequency of reception points. The largest effect of PPR is to boost the value of mid tier WRs compared to the mid tier RBs when looking at that flex spot. Most "flex" type RBs are in RBBC, and not neccessarily heavily involved in a passing game, so 5 points, or the equivalent of 50 yards rushing is a solid game for them. To match that, a WR only needs 3 catches for 20 yards (that's only 48 catches for 320 yards on the season), so there are a lot more WRs once the flex spot is being drafted than RBs that are likely to give you above average production and score you more points at that point in the draft. In a typical 2RB/2WR/1Flex lineup, unless you go RB in the first 3 rounds, you are likely in a position where it is more beneficial to look at a WR for that flex spot based on likely production (though, you may well likely take a 3rd RB for depth before you take a 3rd.. or even 2nd WR that will both be starting for you)

 

Regarding this particular draft, team 10, biggie, looks to have a very solid start with 3 RBs that potentially could put up top 10 numbers and may well all be 1st round fantasy picks (in a 12 teamer) once the season gets closer.

[Randall]

MFL ADP

 

# Pick Player Avg. Pick Min. Pick Max. Pick # Drafts Selected In

1. 1.01 Alexander, Rufus MIN LB 1.00 1 1 1

2. 1.02 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.75 1 2 4

3. 1.03 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 2.00 1 4 5

4. 1.04 Addai, Joseph IND RB 3.60 3 6 5

5. 1.05 Jackson, Steven STL RB 4.50 4 5 4

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 5.00 4 6 4

7. 1.07 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 7.80 3 14 5

8. 1.08 Gore, Frank SFO RB 9.00 6 12 4

9. 1.09 Manning, Peyton IND QB 10.20 8 15 5

10. 1.10 Johnson, Larry KCC RB 11.00 7 20 5

11. 2.01 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 14.25 6 29 4

12. 2.02 Portis, Clinton WAS RB 15.00 9 19 5

13. 2.03 Grant, Ryan GBP RB 15.20 6 36 5

14. 2.04 Bush, Reggie NOS RB 15.67 8 29 3

15. 2.05 Barber, Marion DAL RB 16.50 13 20 4

16. 2.06 Romo, Tony DAL QB 17.00 9 22 5

17. 2.07 Moss, Randy NEP WR 18.80 11 27 5

18. 2.08 McGahee, Willis BAL RB 19.40 9 42 5

19. 2.09 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 20.25 12 31 4

20. 2.10 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 21.60 7 33 5

21. 3.01 Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 21.60 13 31 5

22. 3.02 Parker, Willie PIT RB 23.60 18 27 5

23. 3.03 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 24.20 16 34 5

24. 3.04 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 25.60 12 36 5

25. 3.05 Brees, Drew NOS QB 27.50 22 34 4

26. 3.06 Owens, Terrell DAL WR 28.25 21 39 4

27. 3.07 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 29.25 20 36 4

28. 3.08 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 29.40 21 39 5

29. 3.09 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 31.50 18 44 4

30. 3.10 Turner, Michael ATL RB 31.60 5 73 5

[Big John]

MFL ADP

 

# Pick Player Avg. Pick Min. Pick Max. Pick # Drafts Selected In

1. 1.01 Alexander, Rufus MIN LB 1.00 1 1 1

 

[Big Country]

Saw that to Big John. Methinks a little tweak on the filter is in order.

[Randall]

 

 

That is bizarre and under 10 team leagues. Under all leagues this is the result.

 

# Player Avg. Pick Min. Pick Max. Pick # Drafts Selected In

1. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.27 1 2 51

2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 2.42 1 6 53

3. Jackson, Steven STL RB 3.73 2 20 52

4. Addai, Joseph IND RB 4.88 2 23 52

5. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 6.64 2 14 53

6. Gore, Frank SFO RB 8.58 2 24 52

7. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 9.71 2 33 48

8. Brady, Tom NEP QB 12.02 3 35 51

9. Barber, Marion DAL RB 12.15 4 29 52

10. Portis, Clinton WAS RB 14.81 5 34 52

11. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 15.59 6 57 51

12. Bush, Reggie NOS RB 16.52 1 47 52

13. Johnson, Larry KCC RB 17.68 6 48 53

14. Manning, Peyton IND QB 18.15 2 54 53

15. Moss, Randy NEP WR 18.62 4 51 52

16. Grant, Ryan GBP RB 19.13 3 46 52

17. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 19.94 4 41 54

18. McGahee, Willis BAL RB 20.00 8 52 52

19. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 20.13 6 37 52

20. Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 20.31 7 36 52

21. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 22.79 3 48 53

22. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 22.92 7 48 53

23. Romo, Tony DAL QB 26.53 5 114 53

24. Colston, Marques NOS WR 27.56 19 46 52

25. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB 29.67 13 55 51

26. Smith, Steve CAR WR 29.92 11 60 52

27. Owens, Terrell DAL WR 31.09 2 84 53

28. Turner, Michael ATL RB 31.72 5 73 53

29. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 32.89 15 85 54

30. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB 35.96 3 86 54

[tonorator]

rufus will surprise this year.

[sundaynfl]

rufus will surprise this year.

 

He just surprised the hell out of me!!

[BeeR]

rufus will surprise this year.

Nah. Since chaka khan left, just aint the same. Another has-been, like LT.

[yo mama]

Here is the first 3 rounds..

 

Round 1

1 hinkle Tom Brady (QB NE)

2 gridiron gals* LaDainian Tomlinson (RB SD)

3 Tuffys Giants Peyton Manning (QB IND)

4 addict Steven Jackson (RB STL)

5 Mafia Adrian Peterson (RB MIN)

6 Scourge* Brian Westbrook (RB PHI)

7 Bulls Frank Gore (RB SF)

8 Auto-Pilot Team 1* Clinton Portis (RB WAS)

9 Demolition Randy Moss (WR NE)

10 biggie* Joseph Addai (RB IND)

 

Round 2

11 biggie* Larry Johnson (RB KC)

12 Demolition Reggie Wayne (WR IND)

13 Auto-Pilot Team 1* Tony Romo (QB DAL)

14 Bulls Willis McGahee (RB BAL)

15 Scourge Marion Barber (RB DAL)

16 Mafia Braylon Edwards (WR CLE)

17 addict Terrell Owens (WR DAL)

18 Tuffys Giants Willie Parker (RB PIT)

19 gridiron gals* Drew Brees (QB NO)

20 hinkle Plaxico Burress (WR NYG)

 

Round 3

21 hinkle Jamal Lewis (RB CLE)

22 gridiron gals* Earnest Graham (RB TB)

23 Tuffys Giants Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)

24 addict Marques Colston (WR NO)

25 Mafia Derek Anderson (QB CLE)

26 Scourge Andre Johnson (WR HOU)

27 Bulls T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR CIN)

28 Auto-Pilot Team 1* Marshawn Lynch (RB BUF)

29 Demolition* Julius Jones (RB SEA)

30 biggie* Ryan Grant (RB GB)

 

Now, I have seen Brady go #1 overall a couple of times already. And no doubt that what he did last year was amazing. Would you guys take him over LT or AD?

 

The other interesting aspect is that (aside from Manning who was taken too high as well) after the top 5 picks, the next teir is just insanely loaded with ???? at RB... I am thinking that this is the year, if I pick 5-10, that I grab a couple stud WRs off the bat and then load up on teir 2 and 3 RBs and platoon those scrubs based on matchups.

 

I know it is only May, but this is a FFBL forum, is it not.. Now that the NBA and NHL playoffs are winding down, I need that football fix. What do you guys think? After LT, AD, SJax and Westbrook, how do you round out the rest of the top 10 at RB.. Where does Brady fit in, and where do you start taking WRs this year?

I like the start of Scourge, Addict, and Bull's teams. Biggie* has a decent start too, assuming he can start all 3 RBs; but I'd have passed on LJ for a stud WR, personally.

Edited May 24, 2008 by yo mama

[Randall]

rufus will surprise this year.

 

 

Troy Williamson and Erasmus James sure surprised.

[Chargerz]

# Player Avg. Pick Min. Pick Max. Pick # Drafts Selected In

1. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.27 1 2 51

2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 2.42 1 6 53

3. Jackson, Steven STL RB 3.73 2 20 52

4. Addai, Joseph IND RB 4.88 2 23 52

5. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 6.64 2 14 53

6. Gore, Frank SFO RB 8.58 2 24 52

7. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 9.71 2 33 48

8. Brady, Tom NEP QB 12.02 3 35 51

9. Barber, Marion DAL RB 12.15 4 29 52

10. Portis, Clinton WAS RB 14.81 5 34 52

11. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 15.59 6 57 51

12. Bush, Reggie NOS RB 16.52 1 47 52

13. Johnson, Larry KCC RB 17.68 6 48 53

14. Manning, Peyton IND QB 18.15 2 54 53

15. Moss, Randy NEP WR 18.62 4 51 52

16. Grant, Ryan GBP RB 19.13 3 46 52

17. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 19.94 4 41 54

18. McGahee, Willis BAL RB 20.00 8 52 52

19. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 20.13 6 37 52

20. Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 20.31 7 36 52

21. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 22.79 3 48 53

22. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 22.92 7 48 53

23. Romo, Tony DAL QB 26.53 5 114 53

24. Colston, Marques NOS WR 27.56 19 46 52

25. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB 29.67 13 55 51

26. Smith, Steve CAR WR 29.92 11 60 52

27. Owens, Terrell DAL WR 31.09 2 84 53

28. Turner, Michael ATL RB 31.72 5 73 53

29. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 32.89 15 85 54

30. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB 35.96 3 86 54

In general I like this ranking. Of course....it's only May.

[TDFFFreak]

I'll respond to a couple of these points, as yours lead to some very good conversation points around draft strategy/theory.

 

First, and I BeeR alluded to this, the 6 point TDs have very little affect on value. Now, if this is a start 2 QB league, and you can start only one RB, then there can be valid arguments made for the number of QBs taken so early. Short of that or some other odd wrinkle that is not stated in the OP, then the taking of a QB that early is ludicrous, particularly this year where it appears they may be an even lesser stock of true quality non-RBBC RBs.

This seems to be one of the most common errors in fantasy football. The points have little to do with the importance of higher draft position for a QB unless you start more than 1 QB (or have other positional oddities). *** Just so we're clear: I agree with Country in his above statement***

 

Can someone start a master thread for issues such as this? I am not articulate enough to do it.

Edited May 24, 2008 by TDFFFreak