And with the 9th pick, YOU take

[Gopher]

I think you're already at a disadvantage in drafting in the 8-10 range of a 12-team redraft. Most of us would agree that these are usually the least popular draft positions in this type of draft, year in and year out. So, in order to put together a competitive team, I think you have to take a chance at some point. The question becomes at what point do you take that chance? Two theories:

 

1) Take a chance on the Manning/Brady theory... that one QB is going to greatly outscore everyone else at his position, and give you such an advantage at that position, that it outweighs the fact that you don't have a "stud" RB. Then, you either load up on RB's after that and hope that two pan out (leaving your WR corp weak) or hope that you catch a real sleeper RB or two and draft some adequate WR's.

 

2) Instead of taking a chance on Brady/Manning, "diversify" the chances you take by getting one of the next best RB's and a top WR. You then can only hope that the "gap" between the top RB's and what you ended up with is less than or equal to the gap between the stud WR you picked up and the WR's available on the way back to the teams who drafted 1-7.

 

Neither scenario is favorable, but I think it makes very little sense to put all of your eggs in one basket, and draft a QB in this position. Not only are you assuming that we even know which QB will be the leading scorer at that position, you are also assuming that they will outscore the rest of the QB position by enough to matter. Doesn't happen very often. Not only that, but you're putting yourself in a position where you are pretty much forced to draft RB in round 2.... meaning your top RB AND top WR are going to be inferior to what the top teams are drafting at those positions. So, you end up hoping you have the best player at a position where you start one, and almost guaranteed of being at a disadvantage in positions where you start 4-5 players. Doesn't make sense.

 

I'm not saying it can't work out. I know a few people who drafted Brady last season and won their leagues because of it. The same thing probably happened with Manning a few years ago. I just think the chances of it working out are slim and don't like the idea of one player making or breaking my season.

 

For what it's worth, I would probably prefer McGahee if available in this position, then Barber. Favorable schedule and less likely that McGahee is sitting at the end of the season due to his team clinching home field, etc. Then, I'd take whoever is available between Bush, Grant, Owens, or Moss on the way back. I doubt I would even consider Brady on the way back, unless the draft had gone exactly as I had predicted and I really didn't like any of the players available for the 2.3-2.5 pick. Even then, I would have a very hard time picking Brady and putting myself in a position where my RB1, RB2, and WR1 are all inferior to the majority of the competition.

 

Edit: I initially stated Lynch over Barber, but halfway through my post, couldn't remember who was in the poll to begin with. I just think LJ is not the same due to the offensive line changes, more than anything else, and probably wouldn't be willing to take him as early as he will be available.

Edited May 28, 2008 by Gopher

[Riffraff]

Maybe. But on the flip side, wouldn't it be more likely that you could get a 1300 yard 12 TD WR in the early 2nd round (TO, Wayne, Edwards, a healthy Andre Johnson) than a #1 RB? In a PPR format McGahee was still a top 10 RB last year despite (effectively) missing the last two games last season.

 

IMO, the chance of a top 6 WR being available at 2.4 is greater than a top 10 RB being available at that same spot.

Edge and Lewis were comparable to McGahee and could possibly be gotten in round 3.

So, you could actually take another top 5 WR in the 2nd and come out smelling real sweet.

 

PPR leagues really do help eliminate the stud RB reliance.

 

Play to the league scoring, not just blind need of a RB.

Otherwise, you are just helping the other teams more than your own team by letting top talent drop.

You let them get a top RB and also the top WRs, putting your team even further in the hole (now at two positions you have subpar talent).

 

I will agree that you need that #1 RB more in non-PPR leagues.

[DMD]

In this particular league that has the top ten scoring QBs fall into the top 24 overall scorers, here are the values for those top ten QBs in a league that scores them highly:

 

440 Brady,Tom

348 Romo,Tony

323 Manning,Peyton

317 Brees,Drew

305 Anderson,Derek

300 Favre,Brett

299 Roethlisberger,Ben

295 Hasselbeck,Matt

285 Palmer,Carson

262 Warner,Kurt

 

Assuming that Brady's astronomic 2007 is not repeated, the range went from 350 to 260. I waited until the 3rd round to take Romo which I think has as good a shot at being #1 as any QB and will provide a difference at the position. Notice after those top 4 QBs was Favre (retired), Anderson (slid late season and needs to prove himself again), and then Big Ben (better rushing game now), Hasselbeck (WRs weaker than ever), Palmer (ditto), Warner (not starting) and so on. In this league I like having a top QB but I had no intentions of paying more than my 3.09 and had Romo not been there, I would have waited until the 5th or 6th round at least.

 

To be honest, I have only taken a QB in the first round once. and never again. And that was with Dan Marino.

[piratesownninjas]

But last year's darling QB was Peyton Manning ... and next year it is likely to be somebody else. Good luck figuring out which one it is this year.

Absolutely agree here, although if you're certain in your mind you know who that guy is, it would be hard to pass up on them with the 9th pick...

[tazinib1]

Did you read the sequence of posts?

 

My comments about the lack of tenure were directed at the Chappy because he was attempting to explain what I meant to when I responded to tazinib1. Chappy said flat out that I was simply busting taznib1's chops and was trying to get a rise out of him. Less than 12 months ago there were extensive conversions about drafting a QB in the 1st round and I made my position VERY clear ... but I guess he wasn't around then.

 

 

And for what its worth, that was LAST year. You can try to bust my chops all you want, but I've been around long enough to know when somebody is speaking from there

 

Its all good though...when 2v invited me to this site, I knew I'd have a few old timers bust my chops. It's all good and something I expected from the get go.

 

I'm sure me and Grits will get along rather well as his demeanor is somewhat like a welcome home mat.

 

p.s...I'm rather drunk right now. Ok not rather, extremely drunk right now. And why do we always try to spell check ourselfves when we are drunk? Seems pretty asinine if you ask me.

Edited May 28, 2008 by tazinib1

[yo mama]

Edge and Lewis were comparable to McGahee and could possibly be gotten in round 3.

So, you could actually take another top 5 WR in the 2nd and come out smelling real sweet.

 

PPR leagues really do help eliminate the stud RB reliance.

 

Play to the league scoring, not just blind need of a RB.

Otherwise, you are just helping the other teams more than your own team by letting top talent drop.

You let them get a top RB and also the top WRs, putting your team even further in the hole (now at two positions you have subpar talent).

 

I will agree that you need that #1 RB more in non-PPR leagues.

I don't know about your league's scoring, but in my PPR BOTH (Empire) as a group the top 12 RBs significantly outscored the top 12 WRs. In addition, only 1 of the top 12 RBs had an ADP outside the first 5 or 6 rounds of most 12 team drafts (Graham). Yet 3-4 of the top 12 WRs could be found outside the first 5-6 rounds. (Welker, Engram, Brandon Marshall, and *maybe* Braylon Edwards, depending on your league). So even by your logic, I'd rather have 2 RBs and 1WR coming of round 3, picking 9th because: (1) on average the top RBs score more than the top WRs; and (2) its easier to get lucky on finding a top WR in the middle rounds.

 

Don't get me wrong: I'm not shy about drafting WRs early if they're the best player available. But then again I didn't draft my WR2 until the 6th round last year in Empire and I won that league (again). So whatever I'm doing, its working.

Edited May 28, 2008 by yo mama

[dirtdickens]

I can tell you now I was leaning mostly to taking Grant. It was between he and LJ but LJ comes off an injury and his line is worse and QB situation scares me. I would have begrudingly taken Grant.

 

 

Pirates, you remember calling me an idiot for thinking Grant was a top 10 RB next year?

 

Are you ducking our bet for next year? I hvae mentioned it a few times and you never get back at me.

[Sgt Ryan]

LJ

[The Wolf]

Pirates, you remember calling me an idiot for thinking Grant was a top 10 RB next year?

 

Are you ducking our bet for next year? I hvae mentioned it a few times and you never get back at me.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Pirates, you remember calling me an idiot for thinking Grant was a top 10 RB next year?

 

Are you ducking our bet for next year? I hvae mentioned it a few times and you never get back at me.

 

dd ----------> <------------ pon

[dirtdickens]

Easy boys, its nothing serious. We made a bet about MB3 outscoring LJ and Gore next year and PON has not finalized the deal. I just want to know if he is backing out of it or what.

 

I find it odd that when comparing Grant and McGahee that McGahee gets a pass on the crappy QB issue. Everyone brings up the fact that Aaron Rodgers is not Brett Favre and everyone will load up on the run, but no one brings up the fact that Troy Smith and Kyle Boller are under center for Willis. I still think Grant is the better option because of his supporting cast, but I am open to other opinions.

[piratesownninjas]

Pirates, you remember calling me an idiot for thinking Grant was a top 10 RB next year?

 

Are you ducking our bet for next year? I hvae mentioned it a few times and you never get back at me.

You have a link or just running your mouth? I'm a packers homer and I love Grant... I don't recall ever saying you were an idiot because you like Grant...

 

Easy boys, its nothing serious. We made a bet about MB3 outscoring LJ and Gore next year and PON has not finalized the deal. I just want to know if he is backing out of it or what.

What do I need to do to finalize it? I ask what exactly you were thinking, and you didn't respond... If you have an issue with me, send me a pm.

[piratesownninjas]

You have a link or just running your mouth? I'm a packers homer and I love Grant... I don't recall ever saying you were an idiot because you like Grant...

Just checked the fantasy advice forum, as that's were all of my Ryan Grant discussions have taken place... Couldn't find anything about me calling you an idiot for liking Grant...

[dirtdickens]

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;hl=ryan+grant

 

 

Really? All I wanted was an answer on the bet, but your PMs pissed me off, a real Ryan Grant homer you are sir................................

[piratesownninjas]

Dude all I wanted was a simple answer on the bet, no one is running their mouth except you on the PM

Oh silly...

No, you approached it like I was ducking you, then said that I called you an idiot for your liking Grant... I asked for a link to the Grant thread, and asked what the bet was...

As far as the p.m. goes, I asked why you had taken a liking to me so much and why you were coming at me like an ass...

Once again, I ask that you pm me the link and we can discuss it there, as to not clutter up the message boards with non-sense and flame wars. If you want to finalize a bet, send me a pm. I've been around the boards for way too long and gotten into way too many stupidass flame wars and I've grown tired of it. Just send me a pm and stop this non-sense.

[piratesownninjas]

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;hl=ryan+grant

 

 

Really? All I wanted was an answer on the bet, but your PMs pissed me off, a real Ryan Grant homer you are sir................................

I said that you'd be disappointed in Grant if you picked him ahead of LJ and Gore, and I stand by that... Where did I call you an idiot? Blah...

If you want to work out a bet...PM me.

If you want to continue your trash talk, pm me.

[piratesownninjas]

Sorry guys, I'm trying to turn over a new leaf here at the huddle and not get into this non-sense...

[Zooty]

Sorry guys, I'm trying to turn over a new leaf here at the huddle and not get into this non-sense...

 

Maybe you can borrow Chappy

[TDFFFreak]

If I could have snagged QB Anderson in the 4th or 5th round, I think I grab RB-RB-WR in the first three. It's a bit of a risk, but I have a hunch that Anderson will come very close to Romo type fantasy numbers this year.

[yo mama]

If I could have snagged QB Anderson in the 4th or 5th round, I think I grab RB-RB-WR in the first three. It's a bit of a risk, but I have a hunch that Anderson will come very close to Romo type fantasy numbers this year.

Its really not *that* much of a risk so long as you make the first three picks count/get lucky avoiding injury. From a points per game perspective, there isn't that much of a drop of from the top 7QB to the top 8-14 QBs. And from a total annual points perspective, unless you get one of the top 3 (assuming you accurately predict those guys) it matters even less.

 

In other words, I'd be willing reach for a top 3 QB if I wasn't in love with the RB/WR options that were available for my 2nd or 3rd round pick. But I'm not in any hurry to be the guy who drafts the 4th QB off the board (unless one of *my* top 3 ranked guys slipped by). Anderson, Hasselbeck, Cutler, Eli Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger, Palmer, McNabb, Bulger, maybe even Garrard or Delhomme can all be starters; so long as your making good alternative choices with your early picks I don't think it matters much. There are many paths to victory.

Edited May 29, 2008 by yo mama

[TDFFFreak]

Its really not *that* much of a risk so long as you make the first three picks count/get lucky avoiding injury. From a points per game perspective, there isn't that much of a drop of from the top 7QB to the top 8-14 QBs. And from a total annual points perspective, unless you get one of the top 3 (assuming you accurately predict those guys) it matters even less.

 

In other words, I'd be willing reach for a top 3 QB if I wasn't in love with the RB/WR options that were available for my 2nd or 3rd round pick. But I'm not in any hurry to be the guy who drafts the 4th QB off the board (unless one of *my* top 3 ranked guys slipped by). Anderson, Hasselbeck, Cutler, Eli Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger, Palmer, McNabb, Bulger, maybe even Garrard or Delhomme can all be starters; so long as your making good alternative choices with your early picks I don't think it matters much. There are many paths to victory.

The debate I am having with David's team is the choice to grab Romo with the 3rd pick as opposed to snagging a 2nd RB after his first 3 picks. I got the sense that DMD liked McGahee enough to draft him with his 2nd pick.

 

I agree with you 100% Yo.

Edited May 29, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[yo mama]

The debate I am having with David's team is the choice to grab Romo with the 3rd pick as opposed to snagging a 2nd RB after his first 3 picks. I got the sense that DMD liked McGahee enough to draft him with his 2nd pick.

 

I agree with you 100% Yo.

I had a similar question for him previously, in terms of why didn't pass on Romo for Jamal Lewis (or whoever) and roll the dice on Romo being there at 4.4.

[TDFFFreak]

I had a similar question for him previously, in terms of why didn't pass on Romo for Jamal Lewis (or whoever) and roll the dice on Romo being there at 4.4.

Yeah, I saw that and wondered about that as well with his early draft strategy. Another poster said that the RB-RB drafting method can lead to the path of medocrity. I respectfully disagreed. You don't take a RB just for the sake of taking a RB, but I think a drafter needs to realize that RBs are at a premium and QBs beyond Manning and Brady are not. Apparently DMD feels that Romo is in a league (or tier) with those other two and that might be where we fundimentally disagree right now.

Edited May 29, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[Bronco Billy]

Sorry guys, I'm trying to turn over a new leaf here at the huddle and not get into this non-sense...