detlef Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 So, I'm going to conduct a study regarding ADP and success but I'm sort of torn as to how I should determine end of season rankings. Both total pts and average pts have their merits. Total pts implies durability but if a guy misses just a few games, you really get to add in whatever points the guy you replaced him in the lineup with when determining his overall value to your team. That is, if player x got 200 pts on the season and player y got 190 but missed two games, he was actually a bigger asset to your team. On the other hand, end of year rankings when done by average points are often skewed a bit by the inclusion of guys who had a few really good games but didn't play the whole year. Also, if a guy is hurt a bunch, that marginalizes his value to your team. I was also contemplating doing an aggregate of the two. That is, only considering players who were in the top 40 overall in both and averaging their ranking in both total and average points. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 Total pts. If a guys misses because of injury, he still is missing and that should be taken into consideration. ie the Fragile Freddy Rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted May 30, 2008 Author Share Posted May 30, 2008 what about deleting the top two and bottom two scores and taking the average after that? I'd rather have consistency. I think Kevin Curtis had three amazing games last year? If you remove two, I think you get a better picture of his ability to contribute? With all three games you get a top 25 WR, without them, he was a canker sore on my team. My memory could be hazy, so I'm just trying to say that consistency is far more important... or if a guy historically puts up those few huge games during FF playoffs, then you can carry him on the bench. That's more work than I feel like doing. Ultimately, I'm going to go position by position and divide RBs and WRs into groups of 6 and QBs, TEs, and Ds into groups of 3. Then I'm going to evaluate what the likelihood of players taken in those groups finishing as studs, starters, or non-starters. In other words, for WRs and RBs, what their chances of finishing among the top 12 or 24 and for QBs and TEs among the top 6 or 12. I'm just trying to figure out how to judge the top 12 or 24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted May 30, 2008 Author Share Posted May 30, 2008 But I thought you were going to add in points from a replacement player for a player that was out that week? Either way, post your results Well that would be impossible since I have no idea who that would be. My point was simply that if you have a stud who misses a few games, you get all the points you got starting him plus the points that you got from the guy who you started in his places. So that makes average points important provided the guy didn't miss too many games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Cid Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 Personally I think average points per game played is more reliable than total points. I like consistency better than a couple of big games and the rest are busts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 (edited) PPG is a far truer measure, assuming the sample size is fairly representative, which means you have to account for total points or have a cut off for minimum number of games played during the year, or something. So I said "combination." However, IMO, another good measure is one that measures points per opportunity ("PPO") (i.e., how productive is a WR based on how many times he's thrown the ball, a RB for every carry, a QB for every pass). It gives you a much better indication of whether a player's productivity is based on sheer volume of opportunities and if they are making the most of every opportunity they see. This type of information is extremely useful when predicting who might see dramatic increases or decreases in value based on changes in their involvement in the offense. Then (because I'm a geek) I track and stack three years worth of PPO data on players to see if their productivity has been increasing, decreasing, or stayed level. This comparison has served me very well in spotting which players are worth reaching for in a draft and predicting which players are likely to have a down year relative to the last few. Edited May 30, 2008 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 ppg You have to make a reasonable assumption that a FF team will replace an injured player with a substitute that will score points. Unless you are prepared to account for that difference somehow (and I have no idea how you would do it rationally), then the appropriate measure for a fair comparison has to be ppg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROYALWITCHEESE Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 (edited) PPG. Then I deduct from the average, for games missed. Example: Andre Johnson averaged 14.4 ppg making him third in my league in PPG. But since he missed 7 games, he definitely was not the 3rd best WR in the league in 07. Anyway what I do is I take the percentage of games missed (.4375), multiply that by the number of games missed, then subtract that number from the average. That way you don't penalize the player for being a high scorer, but the more games you miss the more it hurts the score. It brings AJ down to 11.3, which is still very respectable and good enough for a top 15 ranking (which he definitely is) around guys like Housh, Boldin, and CJ. Edited May 30, 2008 by ROYALWITCHEESE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 PPG. Then I deduct from the average, for games missed. Example: Andre Johnson averaged 14.4 ppg making him third in my league in PPG. But since he missed 7 games, he definitely was not the 3rd best WR in the league in 07. Anyway what I do is I take the percentage of games missed (.4375), multiply that by the number of games missed, then subtract that number from the average. That way you don't penalize the player for being a high scorer, but the more games you miss the more it hurts the score. It brings AJ down to 11.3, which is still very respectable and good enough for a top 15 ranking (which he definitely is) around guys like Housh, Boldin, and CJ. Ronnie Brown could be another example. He had a great start to the season and I'd like to get somebody like that on the cheap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 Ronnie Brown could be another example. He had a great start to the season and I'd like to get somebody like that on the cheap. He's a good example, but on the flip side there are obviously intangibles you'd have to factor it. He wasn't coming of the same kind of injury at the start of last season, nor was he splitting time with Ricky W. But I totally agree with your overall point. Delhomme, Garrard, Reggie Bush, Andre Johnson, and Boldin are other examples of guys whose total points don't fully to reveal their value on a PPG basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 Btw, I voted for a combination of the two. Yo mama has good points about Ronnie. No way would I just consider PPG as a basis for drafting my team, although it's a factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted May 31, 2008 Author Share Posted May 31, 2008 I think I'm going to do a weighted ppg. Basically, I'll look at ppg and get rid of any player who didn't play at least 7 games and move anyone who didn't play at least 10 down two spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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