Auction Strategy Tips and Pitfalls

[Danny Zuko]

I am starting in an auction league for the first time. How do I draft my team? Go for 2 high paying studs? An even well balanced team? Or Stay budget, avoid the studs, and try to get good value at the end when people run out of money?

[Kid Cid]

I am starting in an auction league for the first time. How do I draft my team? Go for 2 high paying studs? An even well balanced team? Or Stay budget, avoid the studs, and try to get good value at the end when people run out of money?

A couple of important questions first. Is this a redraft, keeper or dynasty league? What is the scoring? What are the lineups? All of these things will impact your overal draft strategy in any league, not just auction leagues.

[MrTed46]

I am starting in an auction league for the first time. How do I draft my team? Go for 2 high paying studs? An even well balanced team? Or Stay budget, avoid the studs, and try to get good value at the end when people run out of money?

 

 

I been doing auction for many years now and I can tell you this.... its hard to pick a strategy because the each auction has its own tempo. If players are over paid in the beginning then wait and try to get value players later. If players are going for cheap in the beginning jump in ASAP because later on mid-tier players might hit the same price as studs.

 

I would make values for most players and play it from there.

[tazinib1]

People that suggest that you spend cheaply to save money irritates me. The only reason you need any extra money is for Sunday injury replacement pickups. Guys you pickup Sunday, will be double the price come Tuesday. Keep 10% of your initial budget for that reason and that reason only.

[Belushi]

It's hard to have a fixed strategy when going into a draft. You should plan ahead for what you can afford by position. I'd usually use a % for QB, RB, WR, etc. But you'll have to see how things are going in the draft. If the RB's are going for way over what you consider market, sit back and pick up some value later, and use the extra cash to get a stud WR or something. But remember that while getting values late in the draft is nice, you could end up with a team with great depth but no stars that loses every week. You need a few studs on your team to be competitive, and that might mean you have to overpay on a couple of guys to get them.

 

But you really need to wait and see how the auction goes. Being inflexible and only sticking to your starting plan can get you in trouble when the auction doesn't go the way you thought it would. I remember in one auction last year being convinced that I'd have to get a crap WR because I didn't have allot of cap space left going into the FA auction. But for whatever reason the guys with cap space weren't bidding up the top WR's, and I got TJ really cheap. You just can't predict what every other team is going to do.

[Danny Zuko]

good questions.

 

1. re-draft (no keepers)

2. ppr league with 6 points for all tds

3. 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 te, 1 k, i dst

4. 12 owners

5. $100 cap/16 guys on a roster

 

A couple of important questions first. Is this a redraft, keeper or dynasty league? What is the scoring? What are the lineups? All of these things will impact your overal draft strategy in any league, not just auction leagues.

[Danny Zuko]

maybe i misunderstood your comment, but in my league once the season starts all pickups do not go against the cap. isn't that usually the case?

 

People that suggest that you spend cheaply to save money irritates me. The only reason you need any extra money is for Sunday injury replacement pickups. Guys you pickup Sunday, will be double the price come Tuesday. Keep 10% of your initial budget for that reason and that reason only.

[Danny Zuko]

so stick with a range of what percent at each position? that makes sense. i guess you need to have at least one stud, but i don't know anyone can afford two without completey depleting their team cap.

 

It's hard to have a fixed strategy when going into a draft. You should plan ahead for what you can afford by position. I'd usually use a % for QB, RB, WR, etc. But you'll have to see how things are going in the draft. If the RB's are going for way over what you consider market, sit back and pick up some value later, and use the extra cash to get a stud WR or something. But remember that while getting values late in the draft is nice, you could end up with a team with great depth but no stars that loses every week. You need a few studs on your team to be competitive, and that might mean you have to overpay on a couple of guys to get them.

 

But you really need to wait and see how the auction goes. Being inflexible and only sticking to your starting plan can get you in trouble when the auction doesn't go the way you thought it would. I remember in one auction last year being convinced that I'd have to get a crap WR because I didn't have allot of cap space left going into the FA auction. But for whatever reason the guys with cap space weren't bidding up the top WR's, and I got TJ really cheap. You just can't predict what every other team is going to do.

[Atlanta Cracker]

good questions.

 

1. re-draft (no keepers)

2. ppr league with 6 points for all tds

3. 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 te, 1 k, i dst

4. 12 owners

5. $100 cap/16 guys on a roster

 

That is a VERY tight cap for 12 owners and 16 roster spots. My guess based on that is there will be some people getting seriously overbid and some very nice bargains for $2 later. Of course it could go the other way and everyone try to save their money because it is a tight cap and you can pick up some semi-studs in the $10 range. The key is to be prepared for either scenario and be flexible.

[Danny Zuko]

it sounds like i should be very careful not to overbid. isn't $100 for a 16 player team standard? i think that is what sportsline uses.

 

That is a VERY tight cap for 12 owners and 16 roster spots. My guess based on that is there will be some people getting seriously overbid and some very nice bargains for $2 later. Of course it could go the other way and everyone try to save their money because it is a tight cap and you can pick up some semi-studs in the $10 range. The key is to be prepared for either scenario and be flexible.

[The Wolf]

Hey Zuko...good job making the move to an auction league...you will NEVER go back to a redraft!

 

My local has 12 teams, 14 roster spots (I know, I know...) and we have $300 to spend. Off-season moves do not count against the cap (we do open bidding and have $100 per team). It's modified keeper...you can keep one player for one year, then he goes back into the pool.

 

It's true that this auction will make it more difficult for you to have a solid strategy because it is a first-time auction...you have no historical info on how any of the owners bid, tendencies, likes and dislikes, etc. DO, however, form a framework of what you envision your roster containing (2 QB, 5 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) and rank order each position by tiers.

 

Divvy up your $100 to give you a general idea of what you will spend on each position ($7 for QB's, $45 on RB's, $40 on WR's, $6 on TE's and $1 each for K and DEF). Then, within the framework, break it down further ($6 for QB1 and $1 for QB2...etc).

 

Know that most owners will blow their wads on only a few players. There will be a couple who will stay patient and always have the most money at the table...I cannot tell you how many times I did this and loaded up on bargains from the middle of the auction on.

 

HOWEVER...the best player at each position, especially early in a new auction, will most likely NOT be the player that garners the highest bid. If you really are sold on a particular player, don't be afraid to get that player early, as long as they fit (or dont bust your budget bu much). Then watch the other owners bid more for lesser players...and they will.

 

I'd normally also say that you should spend every one of your auction dollars, but in recent years I have noticed that some owners are willing to give up a player and/or waiver $$$ for your last couple of bucks...even when you are finished or only have one player left. Try to budget so you can be in the position to gain a few waiver bucks if possible.

 

Spend $1 each on a QB2, RB5, WR5, TE2, K and Def. That's 37.5% of your roster spots for only 6% of your cap, leaving you $94 on QB1, RB1-4, WR1-4 and TE1...an average of $9.40 for each player.

Edited May 30, 2008 by The Wolf

[The Wolf]

it sounds like i should be very careful not to overbid. isn't $100 for a 16 player team standard? i think that is what sportsline uses.

 

It's your league, correct? You set the cap at whatever you want.

[Danny Zuko]

great advice. i think i am going to read it over a few times. in my league waver wire picks won't cost against the cap. i don't know if that is typical or not. i am tired as sh1t so i didn't get this part...

 

HOWEVER...the best player at each position, especially early in a new auction, will most likely NOT be the player that garners the highest bid. If you really are sold on a particular player, don't be afraid to get that player early, as long as they fit (or dont bust your budget bu much). Then watch the other owners bid more for lesser players...and they will.

 

aren't the top 5 rb (along with maybe moss, manning, and brady) going to fetch the most money? if not them, then who?

[Randall]

I been doing auction for many years now and I can tell you this.... its hard to pick a strategy because the each auction has its own tempo. If players are over paid in the beginning then wait and try to get value players later. If players are going for cheap in the beginning jump in ASAP because later on mid-tier players might hit the same price as studs.

 

I would make values for most players and play it from there.

 

 

You have to be willing to adjust on the fly and not target too many individual players. Good TE's are usually available when everyone is broke.

[Bronco Billy]

You've got relatively small starting lineups. The smaller the starting requirements, the more impact the studs will have. Your WRs will also be devalued a bit because you only need to start 2.

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see the top 4 RBs draw 50% of a team's cap space or more as the winning bid. That means each of the teams that win the bids for LT, SJax, AD, & Addai are likely to have less than $50 to fill the other 15 roster spots. That also means that those owners will be highly motivated to get the handcuff for each of those players so that one injury doesn't wipe out their team.

 

I'd advise that if you could get one of those top 4 guys for $45 or less, make the play for them. Otherwise, I'd wait and save some money to put together a good tandem of RBs for a total of $35-$40. Avoid the 3 (or more) headed RB situation, you'll be committed to spending too much for at least 1 guy who is almost guaranteed to ride the pines all season - and you won't know which one it is.

 

If the top 4 WRs are going for $30 or less, grab one of them. Otherwise, wait for the next tier and put together a good tandem of WRs for a total of around $35 for the 2 of them. If you do get one of the stud RBs, back off the WRs a little bit and grab a couple of WR10-WR20 guys for a cheaper price for the two of them - the production won't be that much less and you won't have crapped out your cap on just 3 guys.

 

Get a top 6 QB - he'll be worth spending $12 to $15 on. With the devaluing of the WRs, the value of QBs rises a bit.

 

That fills your starting skill spots for around $80 to $85, and you'll have impact guys. That leaves you $15 to $20 to fill your other 11 spots. Don't overpay for Ds or Ks - $1 to $2 each, no more. Build a DTBC using $2 instead of using $3 to $4 on a studly D.

 

Then look for flyers who will improve as the season wears on that you can get for cheap (read 2nd year or top rookie WRs)

 

The main thing - don't get emotionally involved in the bidding, such as getting into a bidding war for a player that someone is obviously willing to way overpay for, and don't get suckered into trying to play a bid-up game for those guys, trying to stick another owner with overpaying for a player, it may be you that gets stuck with the guy when the other owner gets cold feet or pulls out after running you up. That's a sure way to start your season in the bottom half of the league, and fighting an uphill battle just to break even by midyear.

 

That's about the best I can offer. You're really going to have to feel out the bidding, especially after you have your top 2 to 3 players on your roster.

Edited May 30, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[Whiskey Pimp]

great advice. i think i am going to read it over a few times. in my league waver wire picks won't cost against the cap. i don't know if that is typical or not. i am tired as sh1t so i didn't get this part...

 

 

 

aren't the top 5 rb (along with maybe moss, manning, and brady) going to fetch the most money? if not them, then who?

 

Let's say the top players are all gone and you're somewhere in the middle of the auction and there is a RB in the 7-10 ranked range. If a bunch of owners have been sitting on their money there could be a few owners that want that last top 10 ranked RB and the bidding could get higher than it did for the top 5 guys. Get it?

[Savage Beatings]

I like to bid high on a top prospect right out of the gate. People are still getting comfortable and they kind of look around like, "is this dude flippin crazy?" You can often end up with that top prospect at a relatively good bargain once you see the rest of the player values to compare.

 

I also like to find the best bargains with the WR position, since it generally has the greatest depth in each tier.

[Randall]

Let's say the top players are all gone and you're somewhere in the middle of the auction and there is a RB in the 7-10 ranked range. If a bunch of owners have been sitting on their money there could be a few owners that want that last top 10 ranked RB and the bidding could get higher than it did for the top 5 guys. Get it?

 

 

There could be. How well do you know the usually strategies of the other owners? I try and go for value without targeting anyone specifically.

[Danny Zuko]

that really happens? so a barber could fetch more value than a westbrook because of panic?! ick. shoot me if i get stuck in that position.

 

Let's say the top players are all gone and you're somewhere in the middle of the auction and there is a RB in the 7-10 ranked range. If a bunch of owners have been sitting on their money there could be a few owners that want that last top 10 ranked RB and the bidding could get higher than it did for the top 5 guys. Get it?

[Danny Zuko]

i plan on bidding out of the gate but do i really want to bid 40% of my total one player. so many first rounders - alexander, johnson, jackson, etc. in redraft leagues become busts. i think i would be worried about pinning my season on one guy.

 

I like to bid high on a top prospect right out of the gate. People are still getting comfortable and they kind of look around like, "is this dude flippin crazy?" You can often end up with that top prospect at a relatively good bargain once you see the rest of the player values to compare..

[Danny Zuko]

Get a top 6 QB - he'll be worth spending $12 to $15 on. With the devaluing of the WRs, the value of QBs rises a bit.

 

in the league there is one flex position where you can use a 3wr in place of a 2rb. even so, i would think in a ppr league, wrs are still pretty valuable. and i am not so sure about spending a lot on qbs when there are so many out there. guys like derek anderso came out of nowhere last season and put up top 5 qb numbers.

 

this is a great forum, guys. keep em coming....

[westvirginia]

There was an article maybe 2-3 years ago by DMD (I think) that talked about auction strategies. He had three basic strategies: 1)Go deep, 2)Go wide, or 3)Balanced attack. (I'm paraphrasing) You can either spend your money on 2-3 top studs, go for one position where you're the undisputed master, or go for solid but unspectacular players everywhere. His gist was that you need to get lucky in pulling a stud oir two out for nothing to end up winning it all.

 

You might see if that article is still on the main page. Oh, and DMD's auction percentage of cap values are what I generally use for valuation. I might move players around according to my own analysis and/or gut, but I leave his percentages in.

[Danny Zuko]

i read the article and yes, it is very well written and informative. of course now i keep going back in forth in mind which strategy is best although i think "going deep" is too risky.

 

where can i find dmd's auction percentage of cap values located?

 

 

There was an article maybe 2-3 years ago by DMD (I think) that talked about auction strategies. He had three basic strategies: 1)Go deep, 2)Go wide, or 3)Balanced attack. (I'm paraphrasing) You can either spend your money on 2-3 top studs, go for one position where you're the undisputed master, or go for solid but unspectacular players everywhere. His gist was that you need to get lucky in pulling a stud oir two out for nothing to end up winning it all.

 

You might see if that article is still on the main page. Oh, and DMD's auction percentage of cap values are what I generally use for valuation. I might move players around according to my own analysis and/or gut, but I leave his percentages in.

[The Wolf]

i read the article and yes, it is very well written and informative. of course now i keep going back in forth in mind which strategy is best although i think "going deep" is too risky.

 

where can i find dmd's auction percentage of cap values located?

 

Here you go:

 

http://www.thehuddle.com/x4/art/dmd-auc-budget.php

 

Click the Fantasy Draft Kit link in the tool bar above (next to HOME) and on the left side mid way thru the page DMD has plenty of auction info for you.

[cliaz]

I'll give you this advice -

 

My first season playing in an auction league I had all of my % picked up, knew which players I would pay what for and what players to let other's fight over.

 

Once the bell rung, all bets were off. I found myself caught up in bidding wars over players that I really didn't target. The surprise for me was that, a position can be bled rather quickly if you are not paying attention to who is out there.

 

Now, my strategy is pretty much this:

 

Never buy a player in the 1st hour unless it is absolutely necessary - let other's spend cash

[the obvious one] never introduce a player you want

Horde my money until the middle and late rounds and then dominate

 

I'm on a 16 team auction league with a 12 player roster and a $1000 cap. Let me tell you, it can get ugly real quick but there are aways fantastic picks later on when other's have waste money bidding up $330 for someone like Steve Smith.

 

EDIT - forgot to mention, in the four years i've been on this league, i've been to the big game twice and won it once. Its a very competitive league.

Edited May 31, 2008 by cliaz