Bronco Billy Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 (edited) Will you be drafting him in FF next year? How far do you expect him to fall? Do you think it's wise for a GM to ignore the fact that a guy has been at the top of the game for 4 years solid with no sign of wearing down and pass on him because of some magical thing that happens to people at an arbitrary age. No, I won't draft him in FF. There will be someone else who will jump up & take him well before I'd consider the risk worth taking. I see his ADP right now and see that as being his value at his performance ceiling. There's just too much risk involved in taking him that high compared to historical perspective that would allow for a drop in his performance. You can ignore history all you want, but there is an inherent risk in taking a RB who is on the wrong side of 30. That same risk holds true for a WR who is on the wrong side of 34. Let me ask you something - how long do you project him to play at this level? 3 years? 4 years? Longer? Edited June 3, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 No, I won't draft him in FF. There will be someone else who will jump up & take him well before I'd consider the risk worth taking. I see his ADP right now and see that as being his value at his performance ceiling. There's just too much risk involved in taking him that high compared to historical perspective that would allow for a drop in his performance. You can ignore history all you want, but there is an inherent risk in taking a RB who is on the wrong side of 30. That same risk holds true for a WR who is on the wrong side of 34. Let me ask you something - how long do you project him to play at this level? 3 years? 4 years? Longer? For starters, the first time I asked the question about FF, I wasn't asking if you're prepared to pick him as high as he's likely to go, rather how low you expected him to fall. Do you seriously believe that he'll finish outside the top 10 in FF WRs? I mean, don't you think he'd be a huge steal if he fell into the late 30s? Sure, if you want to rank him at the back of the top tier, that's fine. There's plenty of arguments why he belongs at the top but I understand that all those other guys are younger. Great, so you take him after Moss, Fitz, Smith, Wayne, and whomever else you want to rank up there. Thing is, those guys are not available to Jerry Jones. He doesn't have that luxury. He's does, however, have a guy on his team who's performed at the top of the league for the last 4 years. A guy who's a bit of a head case and needs to feel like he's loved. Well, Jerry's showing him the love. Secondly, I've answered your question several times already. He only needs to play even near the level he's been playing for 2 years for this to make sense. Dallas has pieces in place to make a run at the SB and needs a dominant #1 WR to do so. The best shot they have at having a dominant #1 WR is to keep their current #1 WR, who just happens to be at the top of the game right now, happy and signed. I mean, is there somebody else out there you think they'd be better off signing? Are you going to discount entirely the notion that every elite player in this game has had enough sense to demand a contract that took them past their prime? So, they give him a fat bonus and pay him a ton of money for the two years that it's a very good bet that he's going to be elite. Then, if he falls off later, they cut him. It's really not that hard to fathom. I can assure you, Dallas would rather get a SB in the next 2 years and have to deal with an aging over-paid WR in 2010 than be fiscally prudent and start grooming the next WR 1 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kansas State 2000 Posted June 3, 2008 Author Share Posted June 3, 2008 You like Moss better? Last two years … Owens Receptions=166 Yards=2535 TD’s=28 Moss Receptions=140 Yards=2046 TD’s=26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 For starters, the first time I asked the question about FF, I wasn't asking if you're prepared to pick him as high as he's likely to go, rather how low you expected him to fall. Do you seriously believe that he'll finish outside the top 10 in FF WRs? I mean, don't you think he'd be a huge steal if he fell into the late 30s? I expect him to be gone by no later than late round 2 in a normal draft with no ppr, and early round 2 in a ppr league. Some one will bite on him that high, and that's why you won't see him on any of my teams. I'd be willing to take the risk I associate with him somewhere around mid-round 4 or so. But I'm convinced that age is an issue that players can't overcome. I've been wrong - I didn't draft CuMar for a couple of years because of that and he was amazing in his longevity and production. But I don't bank on exceptions to the rule when I can get what I consider to be comparable value in other places without the age factor being thrown into the mix. I'd draft Owens as a high #2 FF WR, not as a high #1 WR, hence why I'd miss out on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 You like Moss better?Last two years … Owens Receptions=166 Yards=2535 TD’s=28 Moss Receptions=140 Yards=2046 TD’s=26 You know damn well why that's a poor argument. Go fish somewhere else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kansas State 2000 Posted June 3, 2008 Author Share Posted June 3, 2008 You know damn well why that's a poor argument. Go fish somewhere else. The facts are WHAT??? the facts are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt Ryan Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 (edited) You know damn well why that's a poor argument. Go fish somewhere else. Umm. Moss proved he is a product of the system and needs a elite or Bombs away QB to be successful. When is the last time anyone called Jeff garcia, D McNabb passing or Tony Romo either of those things. Do you think just maybe TO made each of those QBs successful, and not the other way around. Clearly Brady made Moss successful this past yr, certainly not the other way around. BTW, why do you continue to get drilled in the ass about TO. Clearly its the NFL of today. Javon Walker got a huge payday, and has never done what TO has done. TO is worth every penny Jerry decides to pay him. Why dont you spend more time analyzing the Broncos RB situation, and get that right for once. Edited June 3, 2008 by Sgt Ryan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Photobiz2 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Sgt Ryan 4 President Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Sgt Ryan 4 President 4 President of what? The TO (or any other Cowthug) butthumping fan club? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 I guess he didn't light up your teams no.1 db's well enough last year... Yes, he'll be 35 during this season, but the guy has 2-3 elite years left imo... When was the last time a player at this position was as physically gifted and took care of his body that way Owens does? I think sometimes we let our opinions of the person get in the way of our perception of the player. The guy has shown no signs of slowing down yet, so until he loses a step, I don't see it as a bad move. That and what Sarge said about contracts... This type of 'mass-thinking' is why I am a perenial FF champion and the majority is not. See, guys like me and BB let other owners assume the massive risk in elite players that are on the wrong side of 30. What in NFL history makes you think T.O. has 2-3 elite years left in him? As far as personal opinions of T.O. - I was one of the few people who backed T.O.s salary demands while with the Eagles - so I don't really have a negative opinion of him. The problem is that you can't 'wait for him to lose a step' because then it's too late and now you've wasted a 2nd round pick on a bust. This happened last year in my big money league - I took Reggie Wayne in the 2nd round (3rd overall WR) when Harrison was still available and everyone thought I was stupid. Guess who had the last laugh? The thing is, I'm not trying to draft the absolute best player (necessarily) - I'm trying to draft the best player with the least amount of risk - there's a difference. I for one won't be drafting T.O. this year - good luck if you do. Might he be an elite WR - yes. Is he worth the risk - NO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 He is still the main threat on a very pass happy offesnse and he is physically a beast. TO seems to fall to me every year in rd 2 and if he does again I will happily scoop him up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 This type of 'mass-thinking' is why I am a perenial FF champion and the majority is not. Any leagues besides the countless ones in the Niagra falls region ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Any leagues besides the countless ones in the Niagra falls region ? I would answer if I knew what you were asking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 I would answer if I knew what you were asking Its a breakfast club reference..Nothing to see here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 This type of 'mass-thinking' is why I am a perenial FF champion and the majority is not. See, guys like me and BB let other owners assume the massive risk in elite players that are on the wrong side of 30. What in NFL history makes you think T.O. has 2-3 elite years left in him? As far as personal opinions of T.O. - I was one of the few people who backed T.O.s salary demands while with the Eagles - so I don't really have a negative opinion of him. The problem is that you can't 'wait for him to lose a step' because then it's too late and now you've wasted a 2nd round pick on a bust. This happened last year in my big money league - I took Reggie Wayne in the 2nd round (3rd overall WR) when Harrison was still available and everyone thought I was stupid. Guess who had the last laugh? The thing is, I'm not trying to draft the absolute best player (necessarily) - I'm trying to draft the best player with the least amount of risk - there's a difference. I for one won't be drafting T.O. this year - good luck if you do. Might he be an elite WR - yes. Is he worth the risk - NO. 81 catches- 1355yds -15 tds in 15 games last year. What did he do last year that makes you think he'll not have a great year this year? Forget NFL history, ask Al Harris if he thinks T.O has another 2 great years left. Also, this thread was'nt about fantasy, it started out to be whether it was a good move by Dallas or not to re -sign him and anyone that thinks it was'nt is nuts. Oh, by the way perennial champ, you are'nt the only guy in FF that took Wayne over Harrison in the 2nd last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Its a breakfast club reference..Nothing to see here I've seen that movie at least 10 times, you'd think I'd be able to know what you're talking about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 81 catches- 1355yds -15 tds in 15 games last year. What did he do last year that makes you think he'll not have a great year this year? Forget NFL history, ask Al Harris if he thinks T.O has another 2 great years left.Also, this thread was'nt about fantasy, it started out to be whether it was a good move by Dallas or not to re -sign him and anyone that thinks it was'nt is nuts. Oh, by the way perennial champ, you are'nt the only guy in FF that took Wayne over Harrison in the 2nd last year. Not saying that taking Wayne over Harrison was genius, just an example. However, all jokes and perenial championships aside, any type of prognostication requires trend watching. And to get back on topic, as an NFL owner, sigining T.O. to anything over a year is foolish IMO. There are pretty strong trends in the NFL and the only team who seems to play the trends correctly are the Pats. Dallas may have done the right thing morally (compensating an aging star) but as far as a business move or what's best for the team, it was downright stupid. Here are the general trends I've noticed regarding offensive skill players: RBs can start dominating 1st or 2nd year in the league and fade once they hit 30 - relatedly, if a RB has been a stud for 5 years it's time to let someone else assume the risk WRs start to show up after 2-4 years in the league and fade around age 34-35 - no limit on how many years a WR can be studly QBs start hitting their stride around their 4th year and can stay competitive well into their late 30s - like WRs, no limit on how long a QB can be studly. If you don't agree with my above trends then I can see why you think I'm the ignorant one. That's ok by me, I know what I've seen and I know what I've read regarding NFL history and it's pretty hard to ignore certain trends. In fact, of the three trends I've listed, the WR trend is the strongest. Like I said in my inital post on page one, T.O. may have a good season in 2008 but to think he has 2 or 3 elite seasons in him is just plain dumb. Good luck cowboy fans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 This type of 'mass-thinking' is why I am a perenial FF champion and the majority is not. See, guys like me and BB let other owners assume the massive risk in elite players that are on the wrong side of 30. What in NFL history makes you think T.O. has 2-3 elite years left in him? As far as personal opinions of T.O. - I was one of the few people who backed T.O.s salary demands while with the Eagles - so I don't really have a negative opinion of him. The problem is that you can't 'wait for him to lose a step' because then it's too late and now you've wasted a 2nd round pick on a bust. This happened last year in my big money league - I took Reggie Wayne in the 2nd round (3rd overall WR) when Harrison was still available and everyone thought I was stupid. Guess who had the last laugh? The thing is, I'm not trying to draft the absolute best player (necessarily) - I'm trying to draft the best player with the least amount of risk - there's a difference. I for one won't be drafting T.O. this year - good luck if you do. Might he be an elite WR - yes. Is he worth the risk - NO. Harrison last year and Owens this year are two different animals... You seem angry Brent... You've got a little anger in you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Not saying that taking Wayne over Harrison was genius, just an example. However, all jokes and perenial championships aside, any type of prognostication requires trend watching. And to get back on topic, as an NFL owner, sigining T.O. to anything over a year is foolish IMO. There are pretty strong trends in the NFL and the only team who seems to play the trends correctly are the Pats. Dallas may have done the right thing morally (compensating an aging star) but as far as a business move or what's best for the team, it was downright stupid. Here are the general trends I've noticed regarding offensive skill players: RBs can start dominating 1st or 2nd year in the league and fade once they hit 30 - relatedly, if a RB has been a stud for 5 years it's time to let someone else assume the risk WRs start to show up after 2-4 years in the league and fade around age 34-35 - no limit on how many years a WR can be studly QBs start hitting their stride around their 4th year and can stay competitive well into their late 30s - like WRs, no limit on how long a QB can be studly. If you don't agree with my above trends then I can see why you think I'm the ignorant one. That's ok by me, I know what I've seen and I know what I've read regarding NFL history and it's pretty hard to ignore certain trends. In fact, of the three trends I've listed, the WR trend is the strongest. Like I said in my inital post on page one, T.O. may have a good season in 2008 but to think he has 2 or 3 elite seasons in him is just plain dumb.Good luck cowboy fans You may be right about 1 more year but I don't think so. There are a hand full of pure athletes with a gift of dicipline that allows one to overcome the feeling to take it easy on training and stay in elite shape. TO is one of those guys. Jerry Rice is another. Your trend analysis is spot on for say 98% of the WRs out there but TO is not your every day wide out. He is in great shape all the time and stays that way. I could see him playing out this contract with elite production each of those years. He eats almost perfect and keeps his body in pefect vain shape just like Rice. Remember also that Owens trained with Rice in SF so he knows how it's done. There arent' many that can do that and stay consistant with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Not saying that taking Wayne over Harrison was genius, just an example. However, all jokes and perenial championships aside, any type of prognostication requires trend watching. And to get back on topic, as an NFL owner, sigining T.O. to anything over a year is foolish IMO. There are pretty strong trends in the NFL and the only team who seems to play the trends correctly are the Pats. Dallas may have done the right thing morally (compensating an aging star) but as far as a business move or what's best for the team, it was downright stupid. Here are the general trends I've noticed regarding offensive skill players: RBs can start dominating 1st or 2nd year in the league and fade once they hit 30 - relatedly, if a RB has been a stud for 5 years it's time to let someone else assume the risk WRs start to show up after 2-4 years in the league and fade around age 34-35 - no limit on how many years a WR can be studly QBs start hitting their stride around their 4th year and can stay competitive well into their late 30s - like WRs, no limit on how long a QB can be studly. If you don't agree with my above trends then I can see why you think I'm the ignorant one. That's ok by me, I know what I've seen and I know what I've read regarding NFL history and it's pretty hard to ignore certain trends. In fact, of the three trends I've listed, the WR trend is the strongest. Like I said in my inital post on page one, T.O. may have a good season in 2008 but to think he has 2 or 3 elite seasons in him is just plain dumb. Good luck cowboy fans This is how the NFL works. Guys are signed for multi year deals that they will not play out. T.O. certainly isn't the first and won't be the last. Take a pill dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 This type of 'mass-thinking' is why I am a perenial FF champion perennial badass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 So I'm supposed to dislike this deal because of how it might hurt the team in 3 years? That's silly and I'm not even sure there's any evidence this deal will be a problem in 2010. I'm sure the contract is front-loaded over the next two years and if any WR can be an impactful player at the age of 37, it would probably be him. I know it is very disappointing for many that TO has not only been a hell of a team player but also one of the most productive in the NFL since leaving Philly. And I'm sure that it sticks further in the craw of many huddlers because he's done it all in Dallas. You guys can keep telling me how bad he sucks for the Cowboys but I'm going to trust my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 (edited) All I know is my Popcorn is Ready and so is Jerry's. Edited June 4, 2008 by Cowboyz1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 (edited) The end of last years regular season and the playoff loss was brutal considering the fact that they looked like world beaters early on. They made some nice moves in the off season. The personalities that are in that locker room with a pretty weak HC makes me a little nervous but I like the apparent commitment to winning. They just must win a playoff game and get that monkey off their back. Even if they romp through the regular season I still need to see a win in the playoffs. I think if they get in and win the first one good things could happen. Right now I still consider last year to mean garbage Edited June 4, 2008 by whomper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Harrison last year and Owens this year are two different animals... You seem angry Brent... You've got a little anger in you. I've definitely got anger in me but none of my posts in this thread are angry - just truth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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