Best/Worst QBs to win a SB

[Bronco Billy]

Full Disclosure: This is one man's opinion and should not be taken as the definitive assessment

 

This is an offshoot of the debate going on in the Bears' QB thread where a discussion about McMahon's ability ensued.

 

The data set taken is for all QBs whom have ever won a Super Bowl. The numbers used are career yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, and Passing yards per game.

 

The data is broken down so that passing yards per attempt (YPA) - which is considered a good quick & dirty way of assessing QB performance at a glance - is weighted heaviest of the numbers, almost 50% of the evaluation based upon the way the numbers broke down and then were normalized.

 

TD/INT ratio is the next greatest factor, at just less than one third of the value after normalization, which make some intuitive sense because scoring TDs is ultimately important and not surrendering turnovers is also very important.

 

Passing yards per game (PAYPG) are the least weighted factor after normalization, just under one fifth of the evaluation, since not all QBs are asked to do the same things within their offensive schemes, and some QBs have much greater opportunties for amassing passing yards than others - but being capable of moving the ball down the field capably throughout a game has to be factored in.

 

That said, again, the breakdown is subjective, and as always in this kind of list using manipulation of data, there are surprises.

 

Here you go. Have fun.

 

 

Rank	Name	YPA	TD/INT	PaYPG	RAW NO.1	Tom Brady	7.2	2.290	235.4	5.9152	Steve Young	8.0	2.170	196.0	5.8643	Peyton Manning	7.7	2.000	260.2	5.8374	Joe Montana	7.5	1.960	211.2	5.5245	Kurt Warner	8.1	1.520	255.4	5.3856	Ben Roethlisberger	8.1	1.560	208.4	5.2367	Brett Favre	7.0	1.540	239.9	4.9978	Troy Aikman	7.0	1.570	199.6	4.8649	Roger Staubach	7.7	1.400	173.3	4.77810	John Elway	7.1	1.330	220.0	4.70111	Phil Simms	7.2	1.270	204.0	4.59612	Johnny Unitas	7.8	1.150	190.7	4.59013	Len Dawson	7.7	1.310	136.1	4.51914	Mark Rypien	7.1	1.310	177.6	4.50215	Brad Johnson	6.7	1.400	177.8	4.48116	Bart Starr	7.8	1.100	126.1	4.26417	Bob Griese	7.3	1.120	155.9	4.25318	Eli Manning	6.3	1.200	199.7	4.21319	Doug Williams	6.8	1.080	193.2	4.20420	Jeff Hostetler	7.0	1.320	108.1	4.19321	Joe Theismann	7.0	1.160	150.9	4.18522	Jim McMahon	7.1	1.110	151.2	4.15923	Terry Bradshaw	7.2	1.010	166.6	4.13824	Joe Namath	7.4	0.786	197.6	4.06925	Ken Stabler	7.4	0.874	151.8	3.98126	Jim Plunkett	7.0	0.828	164.9	3.85627	Trent Dilfer	6.5	0.876	157.8	3.725

 

[Sgt Ryan]

Subjective, Ill say.

 

K Warner and Roeth ahead of Roger and Elway. Ludicrous.

 

And THe Boys of the 90s were a running team. Aikman didnt have to put up big numbers, as Emmitt was used to do most of the heavy lifting.

[MikesVikes]

Looks like both Namath and Stabler played QB in between parties.

 

Can't argue where Dilfer is ranked.

[MikesVikes]

I don't know if it's fair to knock down Griese for playing with a gazillion RBs to carry the load. Some teams need more passing yards than others to be successful. Not sure how accurate it is to judge the large time span based solely on stats.

[Bronco Billy]

Things that perked my ears up in the data set?

 

Roethlisberger's ypa, which is phenominal. I never saw that coming, and I think I need to re-evaluate my assessment of his abilities.

 

Bradshaw wasn't a very good QB in comparison with the others. Good ypa, but his TD/INT ratio is terrible.

 

Brad Johnson's ypa isn't all that good, but his TD/INT ratio is very solid and he could move the football.

 

Hostetler was a suprisingly solid QB in comparison. He wasn't exceptional in any particular facet of his game, but he was consistent in all facets. Never saw that one coming at all.

 

Namath being so low doesn't surprise me in the least. He got great hype for his wild prediction before SB III that got great press, but he never was a very good QB.

 

Stabler must have been drunk back then, too. He obviously had a tough time seeing which color jersey he was supposed to throw the ball to.

 

Starr's ypa is surprisingly high. Of course, it helps if you have a virtually unstoppable running game that forces DBs to peak into the backfield constantly.

 

Warner being so high doesn't surprise me in the least. He had a 3 year stretch in his career that was probably better than any 3 year run at any time by any QB whom ever played the game.

[MikesVikes]

Stabler must have been drunk back then, too. He obviously had a tough time seeing which color jersey he was supposed to throw the ball to.

 

I wonder if Stabler would get banned in today's No Fun League. Dude's had some fun in his time. He's not too proud to turn up posing with some chicks in girly magazines.

[detlef]

Subjective, Ill say.

 

K Warner and Roeth ahead of Roger and Elway. Ludicrous.

 

And THe Boys of the 90s were a running team. Aikman didnt have to put up big numbers, as Emmitt was used to do most of the heavy lifting.

Actually, it's not and that is getting in the way of your subjective rankings. The criteria that is leading you to believe that Roger, Aikman, and Elway are rated too low is very much subjective. This doesn't make it wrong but it's based on seeing these guys play and coming up with personal conclusions as to how great they were.

 

I don't think that BB would imply that that's really how these players should be ranked. Rather that it's often interesting to see what the numbers yield when you do them.

[Bronco Billy]

Subjective, Ill say.

 

K Warner and Roeth ahead of Roger and Elway. Ludicrous.

 

And THe Boys of the 90s were a running team. Aikman didnt have to put up big numbers, as Emmitt was used to do most of the heavy lifting.

 

Those 8.1 ypa's can't just be simply dismissed because they aren't as big of names as some of the other guys. Those are astronomical in terms of that stat. Roethlisberger is young and things can change over his career, but that numbers certainly marks him as a much better QB than he is perceived by the majority - especially where he is in his career.

 

As far as the Cowboy QBs - that's not bad company up there where they are ranked, and ypg is the least of the factors involved for just the reason that you stated.

 

There's more to being a QB than just numbers, for sure. Bradshaw, for example, was the perfect cog to put in place on Steeler teams loaded with talent at other positions to keep the machine well greased and functioning at optimum effectiveness. Elway had his uncanny knack of regularly kicking his game into 5th gear in the 4th quarter of close games. McMahon played for a Bears' team that had the best D (arguably ever) and best running game in the league & only had to keep opposing Ds honest, not screw up, and also helped to keep the team loose with his off-keel behavior. But it does give a place to start for discussion.

Edited June 11, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[WaterMan]

Also helps to have a RB who you can pass the ball to.

[tbimm]

With that D & Payton in the backfield, Zippy the Pinhead could've QBed the team to a SB win. McMahon may have been the least accomplished QB ever to win a SB - and that includes Dilfer in the mix.

Hmmmmm?

[Bronco Billy]

Hmmmmm?

 

I believe I addressed that a couple of posts down in that thread. Did you not read the entire thread, or are you just cherry picking for aggravation's sake?

 

Oh, and with that team's D & running game? Zippy probably could have won the game at QB (provided he could handle the snap & giving the ball to Payton).

Edited June 11, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[Bronco Billy]

Why this formula instead of the standard QB rating system?

 

Because I did it.

[Bronco Billy]

BTW, by career QB rating:

 

 

Rank	Name	QB Rating1	Steve Young	96.82	Peyton Manning	94.73	Kurt Warner	93.24	Tom Brady	92.95	Ben Roethlisberger	92.56	Joe Montana	92.37	Brett Favre	85.78	Roger Staubach	83.49	Brad Johnson	83.110	Len Dawson	82.611	Troy Aikman	81.612	Bart Starr	80.513	Jeff Hostetler	80.514	John Elway	79.515	Mark Rypien	78.916	Phil Simms	78.517	Johnny Unitas	78.218	Jim McMahon	78.219	Joe Theismann	77.420	Bob Griese	77.121	Ken Stabler	75.322	Eli Manning	73.423	Terry Bradshaw	70.924	Trent Dilfer	70.225	Doug Williams	69.426	Jim Plunkett	67.527	Joe Namath	65.5

 

 

 

I think I like my system better...

Edited June 11, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[WaterMan]

BTW, by career QB rating:

 

 

Rank	Name	QB Rating1	Steve Young	96.82	Peyton Manning	94.73	Kurt Warner	93.24	Tom Brady	92.95	Ben Roethlisberger	92.56	Joe Montana	92.37	Brett Favre	85.78	Roger Staubach	83.49	Brad Johnson	83.110	Len Dawson	82.611	Troy Aikman	81.612	Bart Starr	80.513	Jeff Hostetler	80.514	John Elway	79.515	Mark Rypien	78.916	Phil Simms	78.517	Johnny Unitas	78.218	Jim McMahon	78.219	Joe Theismann	77.420	Bob Griese	77.121	Ken Stabler	75.322	Eli Manning	73.423	Terry Bradshaw	70.924	Trent Dilfer	70.225	Doug Williams	69.426	Jim Plunkett	67.527	Joe Namath	65.5

 

 

 

I think I like my system better...

 

Michael Vick's Career QB Ratio: 75.7.

 

But that includes his first year of playing for a dead duck team, the last half of the season. And the one season he was injured and missed 8 games.

 

The full(15/16 games played) 4 out of 6 seasons his QB Ratio: 77.125

Edited June 11, 2008 by WaterMan

[Randall]

I forgot, which superbowl did he win?

 

 

The Leavenworth Invitational.

 

 

Looks like both Namath and Stabler played QB in between parties.

 

Can't argue where Dilfer is ranked.

 

 

Watching for many year I sure disagree with Stabler. The man brought his from behind many times. He didn't need to in the SB. Both Raiders QB's are rated awful low in my opinion.

Edited June 11, 2008 by Randall

[Menudo]

[Bronco Billy]

Michael Vick's Career QB Ratio: 75.7.

 

But that includes his first year of playing for a dead duck team, the last half of the season. And the one season he was injured and missed 8 games.

 

The full(15/16 games played) 4 out of 6 seasons his QB Ratio: 77.125

 

@ cherry picking Vick's numbers to make him look merely mediocre instead of the turd he was as a passer.

 

I have to admit, you have the greatest fishing trip going for perhaps the history of the Huddle.

[detlef]

@ cherry picking Vick's numbers to make him look merely mediocre instead of the turd he was as a passer.

 

I have to admit, you have the greatest fishing trip going for perhaps the history of the Huddle.

Beat me to it.

[WaterMan]

1 Steve Young 96.8

2 Peyton Manning 94.7

3 Kurt Warner 93.2

4 Tom Brady 92.9

5 Ben Roethlisberger 92.5

6 Joe Montana 92.3

7 Brett Favre 85.7

8 Roger Staubach 83.4

9 Brad Johnson 83.1

10 Len Dawson 82.6

11 Troy Aikman 81.6

12 Bart Starr 80.5

13 Jeff Hostetler 80.5

14 John Elway 79.5

15 Mark Rypien 78.9

16 Phil Simms 78.5

17 Johnny Unitas 78.2

18 Jim McMahon 78.2

edit: Vick here?

19 Joe Theismann 77.4

20 Bob Griese 77.1

edit: or Vick here?

21 Ken Stabler 75.3

22 Eli Manning 73.4

23 Terry Bradshaw 70.9

24 Trent Dilfer 70.2

25 Doug Williams 69.4

26 Jim Plunkett 67.5

27 Joe Namath 65.5

[WaterMan]

@ cherry picking Vick's numbers to make him look merely mediocre instead of the turd he was as a passer.

 

I have to admit, you have the greatest fishing trip going for perhaps the history of the Huddle.

 

I know.

[Bill Swerski]

Interesting analysis, but a statistical breakdown of players in completely different eras is inherently flawed. Troy Aikman over Johnny Unitas? Joe Namath and Kenny Stabler sandwiched in between Doug Williams and Trent Dilfer?

 

By strictly looking at Elway's career TD/INT ratio and completion percentage and comparing them to, say, Peyton's, one might conclude that Peyton is a much better QB. But those who take into account the eras they played in, the types of offenses that they played in, the level of skill-position talent around them, and who actually watched the games would conclude that they're definitely on the same tier.

[Bronco Billy]

By strictly looking at Elway's career TD/INT ratio and completion percentage and comparing them to, say, Peyton's, one might conclude that Peyton is a much better QB. But those who take into account the eras they played in, the types of offenses that they played in, the level of skill-position talent around them, and who actually watched the games would conclude that they're definitely on the same tier.

 

I'd conclude that Manning is a better QB than Elway was. In fact, in a different tier better.

[Bill Swerski]

I'd conclude that Manning is a better QB than Elway was.

 

Put Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Tom Moore's offense on the '80s and early '90s Broncos teams and I'll bet you that Elway's passing numbers more closely resemble Montana's.

 

In fact, in a different tier better.

 

Then that would mean that Peyton is one of the Top 5 overall (which I don't necessarily believe), because both of those guys are definitely in the Top 15 of all-time, and probably the Top 10.

[tbimm]

I believe I addressed that a couple of posts down in that thread. Did you not read the entire thread, or are you just cherry picking for aggravation's sake?

 

Oh, and with that team's D & running game? Zippy probably could have won the game at QB (provided he could handle the snap & giving the ball to Payton).

Just aggravations sake!

[Randall]

"Better"? As in a pure passer? A team leader? Game manager? Desire?

 

 

BB was using his own system weighted by what he considered important. I would only use their play in the Super Bowl but he goes further.

 

'Full Disclosure: This is one man's opinion and should not be taken as the definitive assessment

 

This is an offshoot of the debate going on in the Bears' QB thread where a discussion about McMahon's ability ensued.

 

The data set taken is for all QBs whom have ever won a Super Bowl. The numbers used are career yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, and Passing yards per game.

 

The data is broken down so that passing yards per attempt (YPA) - which is considered a good quick & dirty way of assessing QB performance at a glance - is weighted heaviest of the numbers, almost 50% of the evaluation based upon the way the numbers broke down and then were normalized.

 

TD/INT ratio is the next greatest factor, at just less than one third of the value after normalization, which make some intuitive sense because scoring TDs is ultimately important and not surrendering turnovers is also very important.

 

Passing yards per game (PAYPG) are the least weighted factor after normalization, just under one fifth of the evaluation, since not all QBs are asked to do the same things within their offensive schemes, and some QBs have much greater opportunties for amassing passing yards than others - but being capable of moving the ball down the field capably throughout a game has to be factored in.