Which Rookie WR to draft this year?

[DMD]

Rookie wideouts rarely amount to much but each year there are one or two worthy of being maybe a WR3. On the rare occasion, a WR2 and only Randy Moss ended up as a WR1. But rookie WRs are coming cheap this year so there could be some value since you do not have to draft them as a starter.

 

Which one are you most interested in either this season or to hold for the future?

[TheShiznit]

I pick Andre Caldwell.....if he is a rookie!!! As the guy I would want to draft this year.

 

Then Jerome Simpson if it was dynasty.

[Caveman_Nick]

The best rookie WR opportunity might be in Chicago.

 

Dynasty, tough to say. I go with Thomas.

[Savage Beatings]

Hardy short term.

Kelly long term.

[Pope Flick]

The best rookie WR opportunity might be in Chicago.

 

Dynasty, tough to say. I go with Thomas.

 

 

Earl Bennett should be on many radars....

[Savage Beatings]

Dark Horse: Arman Shields in Oakland... you never know with all of the Walker drama... that place is ripe for someone to step up.

[Bronco Billy]

Aside from being so tempted to jump on board and provide insults with the others above, I agree with David that it is unusual to see significant production from a rookie WR. Personally I feel that it has to do with how good even mediocre CBs are at the pro level. Most CBs in college are WRs who have lousy hands, and so the WRs are competeing with athletes similar to themselves. When they get to the pros, CBs are just as fast as they are, but have greater strength and savvy. It takes WRs a couple of years to learn how to play the game instead of relying on their superior physical abilities and great hands to get them by.

 

WRs are also extremely difficult to gage as far as how well their skill sets will transfer to the next level. This year's batch is especially difficult, as no one WR really stands head & shoulders above the others.

 

Hardy, Sweed, and Kelly are all physically imposing and may get off to the best starts because size does matter to an extent. Pro CBs do tend to the smallish side and a big strong target may get off to a good start. All 3 have good opportunity - Hardy figures to get a shot at the #2 WR spot opposite Evans, Sweed at worst figures to get looks in the red zone in PIT, and WAS is desperate for not one but 2 WRs who can put some fear into DBs. I'd guess one of those 3 would make the biggest rookie splash - and I have a hunch it will be Sweed. If he hadn't hurt his hand last year, he probably would have been at worst a middle first round pick.

 

Thomas, Avery, & Bennett are all more prototypical WRs and may end up with better careers because they haven't relied on size to beat opposing CBs - but they are much more a match physically for pro CBs. That may hamper them early in their careers until they get up to speed in the pro game. Of those 3, Thomas kind of trips my radar for no other reason than he's been pretty much of a one year wonder. All 3 go to good opportunities also, though it may take Avery the longest to move to a starting position. Avery will eventually benefit from the prescence of Holt, however, and that may help as he can start off early on as a projected #2 WR on the roster rather than potentially catching the opponents' top CB.

 

After that, I really like Jordy Nelson & Mario Manningham. Both guys were dominant in college and made the tough catches in critical situations. They are potentially thoroughbred WRs. Nelson has a lot of traffic to weave through, though. DeShawn Jackson is a smurf - and those guys can have a tough time rising to the top, again because pro CBs are so good & so strong, and are more evenly matched. Jackson may have a tough time getting off bump coverage and be forced into the slot.

 

Doucet just doesn't seem to want it enough. If someone could get into the gray matter, he could be special. I'm not crazy at all with Simpson, as he drops a lot of footballs and could easily lose a QB's confidence.

 

Of the remaining guys, the one I like as a dark horse to move up and be a steal is Andre Caldwell. The caveat is that he is a UFA WR, and for some reason those guys just don't seem to make the jump to the pros well. Early reports on Royal in DEN are that he is impressing the hell out of everyone not only as a returner but also as a very good WR with potential to be great. That's without the pads on, though...

 

If I had to pick the break through guy this year, I'd take a chance on Sweed, especially if Ward plays out of the slot. That's a tough matchup that may roll coverage into Sweed's favor. After that it would be Hardy provided he isn't suspended and/or in jail. Any team that would single cover Evans is begging to get toasted.

 

Dynasty? Roll the dice with this group. Any of about 6-7 guys could end up being the best of the bunch by the time it shakes out 10 years down the road. I still like Sweed here, with Manningham nagging at me as being possibly really special if he can stop being so much in love with himself.

Edited June 17, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[BeeR]

Damn BB, you need to stop wearing that softball uni, it's turned you so flaming you're chattier than a woman.

 

 

 

 

 

PS I vote Hardy

[keggerz]

The best rookie WR opportunity might be in Chicago.

 

Dynasty, tough to say. I go with Thomas.

 

 

Earl Bennett should be on many radars....

I like Hardy by a good distance vs the other WRs this year...and bennett would be my #2 for this yr...long term

I still like Hardy.

[Big Talker]

I would take Avery first in both redraft and dynasty formats. He was the first WR chosen in the NFL draft, so the Rams obviously love him. He has an experienced QB throwing him the ball, he's playing in an Al Saunders offense, and the opportunity is obviously there to take Isaac Bruce's old job (though I understand he might be used more in the slot this year). Playing with Torry Holt and Steven Jackson on the field means lots of single coverages this year for Avery.

 

I watched Jordy Nelson play at K-State. He's the real deal--reminds me a lot of Ed McCaffrey. I'm hoping he'll still be there in the 2nd round of my dynasty league rookie drafts.

[piratesownninjas]

Devin Thomas for a redraft

Mario Manningham in a dynasty... I know, homer call, but I've seen what he can do and I fully believe in him.

Edited June 17, 2008 by piratesownninjas

[DMD]

I would take Avery first in both redraft and dynasty formats. He was the first WR chosen in the NFL draft, so the Rams obviously love him. He has an experienced QB throwing him the ball, he's playing in an Al Saunders offense, and the opportunity is obviously there to take Isaac Bruce's old job (though I understand he might be used more in the slot this year). Playing with Torry Holt and Steven Jackson on the field means lots of single coverages this year for Avery.

 

I watched Jordy Nelson play at K-State. He's the real deal--reminds me a lot of Ed McCaffrey. I'm hoping he'll still be there in the 2nd round of my dynasty league rookie drafts.

 

I wouldn't touch Avery myself - when has a Saunders offense produced a notable WR? Eddie Kennison had one decent year but was never more than a WR3 really. Saunders uses the RB and TE so heavily in the passing game that I am in fear of what it may do to Holt's numbers, let alone Drew Bennett. There has never been even a WR2 that has mattered in a Saunders offense, let alone a rookie that may play the slot.

 

It will be very interesting in WAS. With Kelly and Thomas there, they should have some decent receivers finally if only eventually. Moss and Randle El have never been more than a good slot option IMO.

[Jo]

I wouldn't want any of them in a redraft honestly. As far as dynasty, I'd take Sweed since I think he's the most talented of the group and Ward is getting up there in age. I'm still not sold Holmes is a #1 WR.

[Randall]

The best rookie WR opportunity might be in Chicago.

 

Dynasty, tough to say. I go with Thomas.

 

 

Will Frankin in KC does too. He only has to beat out Devard Darling because they like Webb as a backup.

[Zooty]

Of the remaining guys, the one I like as a dark horse to move up and be a steal is Andre Caldwell. The caveat is that he is a UFA WR, and for some reason those guys just don't seem to make the jump to the pros well.

 

I read all that

 

He was a 3rd round pick

[Big Talker]

I wouldn't touch Avery myself - when has a Saunders offense produced a notable WR? Eddie Kennison had one decent year but was never more than a WR3 really. Saunders uses the RB and TE so heavily in the passing game that I am in fear of what it may do to Holt's numbers, let alone Drew Bennett. There has never been even a WR2 that has mattered in a Saunders offense, let alone a rookie that may play the slot.

 

It will be very interesting in WAS. With Kelly and Thomas there, they should have some decent receivers finally if only eventually. Moss and Randle El have never been more than a good slot option IMO.

I understand what you're saying about WRs and Saunders' offenses, and it's a good point. But in KC at least, that was at least partly attributable to the presence of Gonzo. Saunders had a TE who was better than any WR on the team, so he made that player the go-to guy in the passing attack, but even at that and with Priest Holmes destroying the league, Kennison still had two 1000+ yard seasons, and another with 900+. Same thing to a degree in DC--Cooley was a big cog because he was better than anyone the Redskins had at WR2. I suppose it's possible the same thing could happen now on the Rams with McMichael, but as good as Holt is, and with the chemistry he has built up with Bulger, I'm sure his production will be fine.

 

All that said, you've convinced me of the error of my ways about Avery, at least in a redraft league. I still like him okay as a keeper (I'm not a big Drew Bennett believer).

[piratesownninjas]

I'm not a big Drew Bennett believer.

Obviously you're not related to him then.

[Randall]

I understand what you're saying about WRs and Saunders' offenses, and it's a good point. But in KC at least, that was at least partly attributable to the presence of Gonzo. Saunders had a TE who was better than any WR on the team, so he made that player the go-to guy in the passing attack, but even at that and with Priest Holmes destroying the league, Kennison still had two 1000+ yard seasons, and another with 900+. Same thing to a degree in DC--Cooley was a big cog because he was better than anyone the Redskins had at WR2. I suppose it's possible the same thing could happen now on the Rams with McMichael, but as good as Holt is, and with the chemistry he has built up with Bulger, I'm sure his production will be fine.

 

All that said, you've convinced me of the error of my ways about Avery, at least in a redraft league. I still like him okay as a keeper (I'm not a big Drew Bennett believer).

 

 

Didn't he have Joe Horn for awhile?

[Big Talker]

Didn't he have Joe Horn for awhile?

No, Horn left KC before Saunders got there in 2001.

[DMD]

Plus Horn did almost nothing in KC. His best was only 35-586 and 6 TDs.

[Chavez]

I watched Jordy Nelson play at K-State. He's the real deal--reminds me a lot of Ed McCaffrey.

It's the white skin, isn't it?

[Big Talker]

It's the white skin, isn't it?

Uh, no it isn't. Nelson is tall, sneaky fast, knows how to get open and has terrific hands, just like McCaffrey. He's not considered a super athlete, either, just as Easy Ed was not. The comparison wasn't original with me--in fact, I read a column by John Hansen this afternoon where he made the same connection. Apparently because we're all closet racists and think alike, right?

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

I'd wouldn't touch any of them this season for re-draft, but if I had to guess, I'd say Thomas with highest production.

 

Dynasty, probably still Thomas. But it's really a toss-up.

 

But I also like the so far un-mentioned Harry Douglas in ATL. Reminds me (not comparing him to, don't jump down my throat) of Marvin. He should grow up with Ryan quite nicely.

[Chavez]

Uh, no it isn't. Nelson is tall, sneaky fast, knows how to get open and has terrific hands, just like McCaffrey. He's not considered a super athlete, either, just as Easy Ed was not. The comparison wasn't original with me--in fact, I read a column by John Hansen this afternoon where he made the same connection. Apparently because we're all closet racists and think alike, right?

It's just always funny how about 90% of the time white players get compared to other white players. Not pointing the finger at you in particular in this case, you just were the guy who made the comparison first. When he was drafted the FIRST comparison to come from commentators was "Bill Schroeder."

 

I wish I had the scouting report in front of me, but I think Nelson is more of a stud and probably considered to be a better athlete than McCaffrey was coming out. I DO have the scouting reports on Keyshawn Johnson, Muhsin Muhammad, and Terrell Owens and he's VERY similar to them physically on a size-speed basis, without KJ's baggage, and better production than Moose against better competition than TO played against.

[polksalet]

Wow DMD, this is the ugliest poll I may have ever participated in. I think this year Sweed and Kelly will both go for aound 600 and 6. Ultimately 3 years down the road I think Sweed will be a 800 and 5 guy, Avery will be 1000-4 and Kelly will be somewhere between 1000-10 and TO Range. Kelly is a special athlete and talent. That being said this is the ugliest crew of rookie wr's to come out in years.