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Got the 3rd pick in my redraft league


Scourge
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I am in a non PPR league where the scoring is pretty standard aside from the QBs getting 6pts per TD and all TDs getting bonuses for long TDs...

 

That said, I have drawn the 3rd pick this year and I think I am going to try and trade down. Sure, I could get an SJax or a B-West.. Or with the 6 point TDs even a Brady would be justified here for some(Though I am of the mindset that you NEVER take a QB that early in the draft). I have done quite a few mock drafts and I noticed that I like the way my teams look when I pick out of a later spot.. Scenario..

 

Say I trade down to the 8 spot.. I swap 3 and 18 for 8 and 13 overall plus we swap draft slots in round 4. I get 2 of the top Teir WRs with 8 and 13, with one of them Moss. Then I come back around and have my 3rd round pick(23 overall) and get someone like Marion Barber. Then coming back around I get a Michael Turner or Brandon Jacobs with the earlier pick in the 4th and still may be able to get a McNabb or Brees in the 5th.

 

I like Moss, B Edwards, Barber III and Jacobs alot better than S-Jax, McGahee, Holmes and Burress

 

Anyway, where do you guys see the vaule in redraft leagues this year? Particularly 10 team redrafts like mine... Just trying to start up some conversation on this fine July 1st...

 

-Scourge

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I think the value is all over the board and deep this year. That you are in a non-ppr league emphasizes the top RBs a bit more, and you're going to get either LT, AD, or SJax with that 3rd pick. That's a great start, and then coming into the corner at the bottom of the second round and into the top of the third, you have a decision to make depending upon which way the talent breaks, and either way you are in a psotion to take advantage. I think the place you look to trade down if you can is at the 1.06 or later to accumulate more equivalent value at the bottom of the first round/top of the second round.

 

If you stand pat with that 1.03, you could see Grant or McGahee there in the second if your league isn't RB crazy, or Edwards or Fitzgerald if it is, and then you can follow that up with Owens, Steve Smith, Colston as WRs available or Turner if you'd prefer to build your RBs and didn't use your second rounder for a RB.

 

The on the next corner you're looking at Plax Burress or Calvin Johnson at the front part of the turn and then a choise of Palmer or Roethlisberger at QB, Roy Williams or Jennings at WR, or even Gates at TE. The best part of that whole scenario is that you ought to be able to pick up a RB who will make impact on your squad with Lendaled White, Thomas Jones, and Forte' waiting at the entry to your next corner - so you don't have to get married to RB early.

 

So you'll have your stud RB on board, and you'll be able to play the field as far as value through the 7th round, and then start filling in the holes after that. Your potential team through 7 rounds could look like any of the following:

 

SJax

Grant

TO

Ca Johnson

Palmer

To Gonzalez

Forte'

 

or

 

SJax

Edwards

St Smith

Burress

Gates

Th Jones

Cutler

 

or

 

SJax

Fitzgerald

Turner

Ca Johnson

Ro Williams

L White

McNabb

 

I'd be willing to roll the dice and play with any of those for a base in your league, and then filling in with bargains later in the draft. That's a stud RB in a non-ppr league and a base lineup with no holes in it to back him up no matter which way you go.

 

BTW, in a non-ppr, Westbrook is a poor choice at 1.03. Brady is a terrible choice at 1.03 for anything other than possibly a start 2 QB league - and even then I don't like that pick there - and Barber will be long gone by 3.03 - in fact, in a non-ppr league he may go in the first before Westbrook. Brees will be long gone by the 5th, and you'd be taking McNabb way too early in the 5th. Sounds like you may have some research to do.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Thanks for the input and no offense or anything... But if you are saying that Barber should got before Westbrook in any redraft league then you might be the one with some research to do.

 

As far as Brady goes, if you think he has anywhere close to the numbers he had last year, you can make a case for him to go early in a league that awards 6 points per TD plus bonuses for long TDs. I agree that I don't like him there either.

 

McGahee should not be there at 3.03 but in our league I think he might be because I know not many are high on him with a rookie QB. I realize that might be a stretch but I looked at it very quickly.

 

Anyway. I am not sold on S-Jax over a Gore, Westbrook or even LJ for that matter. The Rams O-Line, Bulger and S-Jax can't stay healthy. Not to mention that their WR corps don't scare me at all. Holt is a year older but still a threat.. Bruce gone... Unless you think Drew Bennett is the next coming then I don't see their offense being extremely productive.

 

My point is that there is question marks abound with these RBs this year and with more and more RBBC, I am thinking 2 stud WRs and then assemble a squad of upside RBs and hope they pan out...

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Anyway. I am not sold on S-Jax over a Gore, Westbrook or even LJ for that matter./quote]

 

:wacko:

 

To each their own. If I am at pick 4 and SJax is still there, I'm all over him like a fat kid on a cupcake.

 

Where is LJ's O-line better? Isn't he also coming off an injury? Wasn't the knock on Westy that he could not stay healthy? And Gore? He had one good year...and did nothing last season. No way I take a chance on Gore or LJ with the #3, and personal preference takes me to SJax at #3 over Westy.

Edited by The Wolf
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Thanks for the input and no offense or anything... But if you are saying that Barber should got before Westbrook in any redraft league then you might be the one with some research to do.

 

:wacko:

 

Westbrook's ADP right now is 1.04, Barber's is 1.07. In a non-ppr, Westbrook's value drops without question, not to mention his esteem in FF owners' eyes.

 

But hey, believe what you want.

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I have to agree with BB here, Scourge. Your strategy is poor, largely because it's based on flawed expectations of the draft.

 

Plus, if you characterize SJax as a "question-marks" RB, then your tolerance for question marks is unrealistically low. AP has questions. LT has questions. Brady has questions. To avoid overpaying for guys with question marks, I'd suggest you trade down and acquire every pick in the 11th round. :wacko:

Edited by Swiss Cheezhead
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BTW - I love threads like this in the offseason, and commend you for having enough sack to post it, Scourge. Of course you're going to get whaled on, but that's okay as long as you have a thick skin and don't take some people too seriously (like me...).

 

On the other hand, the data that we're seeing so far doesn't support some of your assumptions. So when I said that you had some research to do, that didn't mean that I thought you were a neophyte at this, just that you seem to base your opinion on some conclusions that aren't justified right now. That could easily change in the next 2 months.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Oh no.. never any offense taken. I like opening these up early to see if my opinion on certain things might be skewed.. I appreciate the feedback. And I am not saying that S-Jax should not go 3.. I am just saying that I am not as high on him as others. This conversation could sway me. And you are right.. I always have a different perspective on things by the time the draft comes around.

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I think the 3rd or 4th pick is an ideal spot to draft this year as there are 4 stud RB's to take and then there is a dropoff...

 

if I had the 1st pick, I'd probably trade down...but not outside the top 4...

 

now, with the 3rd selection I'd go SJax...

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Anyway. I am not sold on S-Jax over a Gore, Westbrook or even LJ for that matter. The Rams O-Line, Bulger and S-Jax can't stay healthy. Not to mention that their WR corps don't scare me at all. Holt is a year older but still a threat.. Bruce gone... Unless you think Drew Bennett is the next coming then I don't see their offense being extremely productive.

 

 

I personally don't have LJ high at all and will let someone else draft him....

 

Gore would be a great pick at around 5 or 6.....but he may slide up in the draft by default because I don''t like what is going on in the Indy backfield, so Addai drops.....

 

and Westy...well, I am getting scared that his knees will finally give out...

Edited by Avernus
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Okay, to sidetrack this just an iota, since it is directly related to the thought process Scourge is putting forth, check out these current ADPs:

 

 

51	Graham, Earnest TBB RB	53	Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB	54	James, Edgerrin ARI RB	56	Jones, Julius SEA RB	57	White, LenDale TEN RB	58	Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB	59	Jones, Thomas NYJ RB	62	Forte, Matt CHI RB	66	Johnson, Rudi CIN RB	69	Smith, Kevin DET RB	77	Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB	82	Young, Selvin DEN RB	83	Jones, Felix DAL RB	88	Taylor, Fred JAC RB	91	Taylor, Chester MIN RB	93	Johnson, Chris TEN RB	97	Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB

 

 

There are some real plums lurking later at RB in drafts so far. I'd let Graham move up a bit now that he's signed, unless Kevin Jones signs in TB (word is that there is some sudden interest on their part), but some of the other guys are perfectly capable of giving FF owners #2 RB production with low #1 RB upside.

 

I don't like either guy in the PIT situation, but if I were to have to select one on a roll of the dice, it would have to be Mendenhall if you are convinced he can play at the NFL level (I'm not, BTW). He's going over a round behind Parker. I'd toss Julius Jones (hasn't proven crap with a damn good team already), Felix Jones (obvious #2 component in the DAL RBBC), and Chris Johnson (the next Chris Henry in TEN?) off the island. After that, you could get the CAR RBBC with a 5th & 7th round pick, could get Edge or Thomas Jones - #1 RBs on their respective team, proven capable of very good #2 FF RB numbers, and with handcuffs coming very cheaply - with a mid to late 5th rounder, your pick of rookie #1 RBs with a late 5th rounder, or the current primary piece in the DEN running game with a 6th round pick with the handcuff available very late. Or you could take one of the Taylors - prolific when given the primary responsibility but capable of solid numbers even if sharing the load. Even Lendale White or Rudi Johnson with a 5th or 6th round pick respectively could easily generate #2 FF RB numbers without extending too much into their upsides.

 

There's a lot of RBs who seem capable of potentially similar numbers to some of the RBs going a lot earlier, allowing an owner to load up on talent at other FF positions while securing a good to great #1 FF RB in rounds 1/2. RB is probably as deep as it has been in a while and consideration should be made by owners to downgrade the position a bit and move up priorities for good to great WRs early on, and bumping up QBs & TEs a round or so in cheatsheets.

 

I'm not sure about going WR/WR - you still need some stability at the RB position unless you are ready to swing for the fences in a "championship or bust" kind of mentality - but wrapping 3 WRs around a 1st/2nd round RB in the first 4 rounds of a draft looks to be very viable this year without too much sacrifice at #2 RB.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I would gladly trade out of 1.3 and let the SJax lovers come and get him this year. I don't think he's a question mark, he's just a little bit overrated due to the weak team around him. The O-line is a work in progress. Pace will never be what he was after missing, what, 2 years now? The defense is a sieve. He's still a first rounder for sure, but I wouldn't draft him above 1.6.

Edited by The Irish Doggy
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I would gladly trade out of 1.3 and let the SJax lovers come and get him this year. I don't think he's a question mark, he's just a little bit overrated due to the weak team around him. The O-line is a work in progress. Pace will never be what he was after missing, what, 2 years now? The defense is a sieve. He's still a first rounder for sure, but I wouldn't draft him above 1.6.

 

but he's a monster in the passing game...

 

I could care less if he ever runs the ball for more than 50 yds, but in a PPR, let him average 5 catches a game and 8 or more TD's...

 

I'll take that....not to mention the fact that you usually only get 2 or 3 productive backs out of the top 7 due to injury and other circumstances...

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but he's a monster in the passing game...

 

I could care less if he ever runs the ball for more than 50 yds, but in a PPR, let him average 5 catches a game and 8 or more TD's...

 

I'll take that....

 

 

80 receptions and 8 receiving TDs (2 more than his career total)? I'd take it too.

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80 receptions and 8 receiving TDs (2 more than his career total)? I'd take it too.

 

I missed the part where he stated that Jackson's 8 or more projected TDs were receiving. I suspect that you may have intentionally misinterpreted the numbers...

 

:wacko:

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If I get the 3rd spot, I keep the 3rd spot. I have no reservations about taking Steven Jackson this season. If you don't like the choices there, I don't think there is anythign wrong with trading down... but I would really milk it to get as much out of that trade down as possible. Otherwise you take Jackson and trade the player at some other point in time.

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Scourge, are you projecting Felix Jones to have a really good year?

 

I just got back from lunch.. Great discussion here. Don't get me wrong.. I love MBIII, as much as I can for being an Eagle's fan, that said.. I am in a league where everyone knows the game but everyone is also a Philly homer. The Dallas, Giants and Skins players seem to slip a bit in which I have no regrets about stealing them. I agree that in a normal redraft Barber would not slip that far...

 

That said, I do not rate him as high as some of you only because I think they drafted Felix Jones because they know that MBIII is so intense and loves the contact so much that they are going to have to almost use a RBBC approach and bank on his big play ability. I don't think he is going to be your typical workhorse RB... Not that there are many of them around.. I think Felix cuts into his carries enough this year to keep him close to where he was last year... Maybe even a hair less... Pure speculation on my part though.. Like I said before, depending on what happens in TC, my opinion will change.

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I missed the part where he stated that Jackson's 8 or more projected TDs were receiving. I suspect that you may have intentionally misinterpreted the numbers...

 

:wacko:

 

 

I suspect you may have intentionally misinterpreted my intent.

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May I suggest that when you post generic opinions that you re-adjust your thinking as if you were in multiple FF leagues and remove the bias? It's just hard to have a discussion with someone who's biased, but doesn't share that disclaimer every single time so people who aren't familiar will be brought up to speed.

 

I see what you're saying about your league in particular. If your opponents all hate the cowboys, then yeah, cowboys will slip.

 

That said, I think it's fair to say that MB3 continues to improve and should have at least 1300 total yards and a dozen TDs.

 

When it come to fantasy football. I am completely unbiased.. You could be right about MB, I will be tuned in to see how Felix Jones fits in though.

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