Someone Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 (edited) Do you draft with the playoffs in mind? I've really started to give more attention to this in recent years. It's not much of a consolation to be the best team in the regular season and then flop in the playoffs b/c your players faced tough defenses or bad weather in weeks 15 and 16. This was driven home to me again last year. In my league with my old college buddies, the guy with Tom Brady had the best record. I beat him in the first round of the playoffs b/c Brady played in the snow in week 15 and threw for 140 yds and no TDs. I laughed. I went on to win that championship. So my question is, how much do you let the playoffs affect your player rankings? For instance: Brady will be playing at home again this year in week 16, the championship week. Snow is a huge possiblity in New England on Dec. 21st. Can Brady deliver a championship to you? That Week 16 game is against Arizona. So Fitz and company will more than likely be trying to catch passes in the snow. Therefore I am dropping his ranking within his tier. The Bill and the Jets will also more than likely be playing in the snow in Week 15. So this will hurt their passing games and maybe help Lynch and Thomas Jones. Their defenses will be helped as well. So will New England's. The same goes for Chicago and New Orleans in Week 15. So that makes me worry about Brees and Colston. I have no doubt that they can get me to the playoffs but can they get me to the Championship? To a lesser degree I also consider tough matchups in week 15 & 16. But I don't go crazy with it. So, how much attention do you give to drafting with the playoffs in mind? Edited July 3, 2008 by Someone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 not much, I tend to go for value with my picks or personal preference and then as the season gets going I start to focus more on this and try and trade my way into what I think is the best course for my team. You gotta make the playoffs first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmypg Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 not much, I tend to go for value with my picks or personal preference and then as the season gets going I start to focus more on this and try and trade my way into what I think is the best course for my team. You gotta make the playoffs first. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 You gotta make the playoffs first. +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 You gotta make the playoffs first. +3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Someone Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 (edited) You gotta make the playoffs first. I realize this. That's why you can't go crazy with this. I'm not advocating drafting Vince Young over Brady or Reggie Brown over Marques Colston. I'm just saying that when making a decision on which guy to draft within the same tier. I go with the guy that has a better week 15 & 16 matchups. Both Manning & Brady can get you to the playoffs but I'd rather have Manning at home vs. Detriot in Week 15 than Brady at home in the snow. And since Fitz will be trying to catch passes in the snow in Week 16, I rather have someone else within that tier of WRs. Edited July 3, 2008 by Someone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 It's a full season's worth of work just to try to make the playoffs for me. Then you add that most times the team I draft doesn't have a very strong resemblance to the team I finish the season with in redraft leagues. If you have the luxury of drafting players based upon playoff schedules and matchups because you know that you're going to be there, I'd say that's an indicator that you ought to be seeking out tougher competition (unless you don't mind coasting during the season because your leaguemates are easy money). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 And what if the Colts have nothing to play for come week 16? I understand what your saying but like Hat Trick mentioned, you can always deal with that as you approach the final weeks via trade. I wonder if you would have this same philosophy in a zealot style IDP league? (53 man rosters, 14+ teams) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 I wonder if you would have this same philosophy in a zealot style IDP league? (53 man rosters, 14+ teams) Wrong site there, champ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 Wrong site there, champ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebdog Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 i always take a look at a players game schedule for the playoffs. of course you can't let it dictate all/most of your picks, but it can help you decide between a couple of similarly rated players. grabbing backups or 2nd tier players with nice playoff matchups helps too. if you get an injury down the stretch or a guy doesn't perform like you expected, a lesser player in the right situation is a nice option. choosing between Derek Anderson in a blizzard at home vs. Tavarius Jackson in a dome against the Lions will make Jackson look plausible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Someone Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 i always take a look at a players game schedule for the playoffs. of course you can't let it dictate all/most of your picks, but it can help you decide between a couple of similarly rated players. Thank you. That was my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 I do consider the playoff weeks as a small factor. A more important factor IMO is the early schedule, especially with middle round picks. If I have a few guys that come out hot, then I can put myself in a position to trade them when their value is highest for players that I may perceive to be underperforming studs with better prospects for success as the season progresses and into the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 Thank you. That was my point. I understand what you were saying, and I wasn't attacking your philosophy just that I tend to make those moves when I can after I am headed in the playoffs direction, you never know what's going to happen during the season. It's certainly a draft strategy that can reap rewards, just that I don;t do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 choosing between Derek Anderson in a blizzard at home vs. Tavarius Jackson in a dome against the Lions will make Jackson look plausible. Could you PM me the future weather schedule for the upcoming season so that I can factor it into my drafts? TIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 (edited) For instance: Brady will be playing at home again this year in week 16, the championship week. Snow is a huge possiblity in New England on Dec. 21st. Can Brady deliver a championship to you? That Week 16 game is against Arizona. So Fitz and company will more than likely be trying to catch passes in the snow. Therefore I am dropping his ranking within his tier. The Bill and the Jets will also more than likely be playing in the snow in Week 15. So this will hurt their passing games and maybe help Lynch and Thomas Jones. Their defenses will be helped as well. So will New England's. The same goes for Chicago and New Orleans in Week 15. So that makes me worry about Brees and Colston. I have no doubt that they can get me to the playoffs but can they get me to the Championship? I remember a completely overmatched OAK team coming into DEN and playing in a raging snowstorm & Jerry Porter going off for a monster game that gave OAK one of their few Ws that season. That performance along could have easily tipped the balance in a FF matchup. I'm not sure what you're looking for here - are you trying to promote discussion, or are you looking for affirmation? It appears to be the latter. I see that you're a new member. Welcome. I've found that I learn a lot more at this board when there is disagreement & discussion regarding a topic, and if some of my more knowledgeable brethren here have differing opinions, the first thing I do is pay attention, step back, and re-evaluate my position. My position may not change, but it certainly gives me pause for thought. Hope you enjoy it here. For the large predominance, this is a very good & sharp group. Edited July 3, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 Thank you. That was my point. Then this post was fairly pointless. First, if you say "all other things equal, should you factor in playoff match-ups?", then everyone will respond "yes." Unfortunately, all other things are rarely, if ever, equal. Second, you have no idea what the weather is going to be like in December. Anywhere. Third, this time of year, you have no idea which teams will be tough match-ups in December. Especially when you separate rushing versus passing defense, the match-ups ALWAYS vary wildly from your summer expectations. So, figure out which players are set up to reach their talent potential this year. Draft as many of those players as possible. Then, around mid-season, determine which Week 14-16 matchups are best and worst (according to REAL defensive showings). Try to trade any of your bad-matchup players for lesser-valued good-matchup players. Plug in your lineup and roll with it. That's all you can do. The rest is karma*. *Karma is ruled by FF gods who pay close attention to the quality of message board posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 I do consider strength of schedule. And after last season's terrible Ohio storms I consider weather. I lowered Edwards and Derek Anderson a bit because of those awful games. I raised Jamal a bit for the same reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 I think you have to. Think of it this way: if your team takes off and gets hot, if the SOS holds up from preseason then you're in better shape than if you didn't. If your team blows and SOS holds up, you might have trade fodder to improve. The basic problem is whether or not the 'strong' matchups as seen before week 1 are still strong in week 8 or 9, when you might need to make a trade. Weather is a fo' sho' as well. Look at those dome games as gold, especially for passing games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 lesser-valued good-matchup players. Plug in your lineup and roll with it. That's all you can do. The rest is karma*.*Karma is ruled by FF gods who pay close attention to the quality of message board posts. This is sig line worthy, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Someone Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 I see that you're a new member. Welcome. Thank you. I look forward to using The Huddle and the message boards here. I used other Websites for the past several years and thought that I 'd give The Huddle a try since it has a good reputation in the FF community. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 I used other Websites for the past several years and thought that I 'd give The Huddle a try since it has a good reputation in the FF community. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Someone Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 With the exception of about three teams (Pats, Colts, & 49ers ), what we see happening now is just so different from the way the season is actually going to play out. It seems like every year we think "this is the strangest year ever!" Any effort to plan ahead is just going to make you say "man was I wrong about that" later on. You may have to adjust your team around the midway point, but draft the best players available regardless. Getting too "cute" typically means a situation is going to blow up in your face. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted July 3, 2008 Share Posted July 3, 2008 I've never done it... I can see how it might be used as an additional factor to help decide between a couple of very similar players, but I tend to go with my gut over statistics in those cases during a draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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