Bill Swerski Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) I don't know about Stewart being far more talented than previous examples. He may end up being that but as of right now we don't know what his talent level will be in the NFL. +1 It bears keeping in mind that Stewart put up those great numbers in college playing in a wide-open spread option offense. His backup, Jeremiah Johnson, had almost the same yds/carry average as Stewart before blowing his knee out last Fall. Mike Bellotti also transformed Akili Smith and Joey Harrington into first-round picks. Stewart may or may not turn into a solid NFL halfback, but there's a substantial recent history of Oregon offensive players who've looked like studs in college, but that performance hasn't translated in the NFL. Edited August 4, 2008 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Please explain that...can you back that up with anything remotely close to verifiable....I mean really....DeShaun got all the non garbage carries. Get real. I am not bashing Stew...I am very very high on him....I am just not going to quickly say that a 4.98 ypc is something that is in need of replacing. And there is no way you can convince me that most or all of DW yards were garbage time yards...that is rediculous. Here is the breakdown and looking at Q4 in games where he had 10+ carries. In 9 games with less than 10 carries, he only once had more than 3.8 YPC. 1 @STL 15-62 (4.1) - 11 carries Q4 for 55 yards. Wierd game - 6 carries > 10 yds and 9 carries <2 yards (CAR win 27-13) 2 HOU 8-31 (3.8) 3 @ATL 11-47 (4.3) - 5 carries Q4 for 10 yards (CAR wins 27-20) 4 TB 2-5 (2.5) 5 @NO 7-23 (3.3) 6 @ARI 10-121 (12.1) - 4 carries Q4 for 92 yards. Ended game with runs of 75 and 13 over final 3 plays. (CAR wins 25-10) 8 IND 5-14 (2.8) 9 @TEN 4-15 (3.8) 10 ATL 7-27 (3.8) 11 @GB 6-22 (3.7) 12 NO 4-19 (4.8) 13 SF 17-82 (4.8) - 11 carries Q4 for 56 yards 14 @JAC 3-7 (2.3) 15 SEA 15-61 (4.1) - 5 carries for 40 in Q4 (CAR wins 13-10 16 DAL 10-60 (6.0) - Only 2 carries Q4 for 4 yards (CAR loses 13-20) 17 @TB 20-121 (6.1) - 10 carries Q4 for 78 yards (CAR wins 31-23) So yes, for the most part you can say that he had more Q4 runs than in any other quarter. In fact in most games he didn't carry until Q2. It is notable too that he had 2 big games of 121 yards each and of those 30 carries for 242 combined yards, he had 14 carries for 170 yards during Q4. The totals from the first three quarters in those two games was 16 carries for 72 yards or 36 yards per game until Q4. So yeah, most of his stuff happened in Q4. About the only exception was the 39 yard run he had in Dallas in Q2 but that was a loss and he was barely used at all in Q4 when the team was trying to win. Pointing at his 4.9 YPC is misleading. Consider that in the nine games where he had less than 10 carries (AKA most games), he only had 46 carries for 163 yards for a YPC of 3.5. His YPC was definitely propped up by what he did in two uncharacteristic games where he had one big run in Q4 of games already decided. No wonder the Panthers went after an every down power back that cost them... oh never mind... full circle I guess... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I don't have any hard evidence to back this up, but I'll say it anyway. I do quite a bit of NFL draft research every year -- I like to go to a wide variety of legit NFL scouting sources to see how prospects stack up. Stewart was one of the most consistently high-rated players I've ever seen. Aside from the world-renowned scout known as Seahawks21, every scouting report I read about Stewart was exceedingly positive (moreso than even McFadden). If all his college production was simply due to a favorable offensive system, then scouts everywhere are stealing money from their employers. So, despite S21's awesome talent-evaluation record (coughreggiewilliamscough), I'll go on record and jump on the Stewart bandwagon. Draft him early and often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I don't have any hard evidence to back this up, but I'll say it anyway. I do quite a bit of NFL draft research every year -- I like to go to a wide variety of legit NFL scouting sources to see how prospects stack up. Stewart was one of the most consistently high-rated players I've ever seen. Aside from the world-renowned scout known as Seahawks21, every scouting report I read about Stewart was exceedingly positive (moreso than even McFadden). If all his college production was simply due to a favorable offensive system, then scouts everywhere are stealing money from their employers. So, despite S21's awesome talent-evaluation record (coughreggiewilliamscough), I'll go on record and jump on the Stewart bandwagon. Draft him early and often. Don't forget Taz's love for the man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Don't forget Taz's love for the man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) DeAngelo Williams, games with 12 or more touches in a game: 11 games Average 15.6 carries for 70.1 rush yds and 2.91 catches for 28.8 yds, 0.455 TDs/gm Extrapolate those results over a 16 game season: 250 carries 1122 rush yds 4.49 ypc 47 catches 461 recieving yds 9.90 ypr 297 touches 1583 total yds 7 TDs That would have put him as the 10th leading rusher and the 5th best player in yards from scrimmage last year. I think there are a few NFL teams that would have liked that kind of production, and a few FF owners that could use those kinds of numbers - especially since his touches for the season would have been under 300. Edited August 4, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I'll weigh in on a few things here. As to "Why Carolina wasted on 1st round pick on a guy they weren't going to use for more than part time duty?" You know, this wouldn't be the first time in history where things didn't work out the way a team hoped. However, my guess is this: Fox wants a bigger, every down type back. However, Williams was "supposed" to go much earlier in the draft, so perhaps the rest of the guys making decisions on draft day convinced him that he was too good a value to pass up, so they grabbed him. Thing is, he's not the kind of back Fox wants to use so he never got comfortable with him in there. Maybe he figured he could get on board with a smaller back, but when push came to shove, just couldn't. So, this year, they went out and got Fox the kind of back he wanted. As for William's numbers, change of pace backs are always going to have nice YPC #s. In terms of Swerski pointing to Smith and Harrington, I think there's a much bigger difference between system QBs and system RBs. Well, that is, if the RB has prototypical physical attributes, which Stewart has. Compared to a QB, a RBs job is much simpler. Take the ball and run up field. If you're fast and strong, it should work out well for you. Obviously there's more to it than that, but big and strong RBs that fail, usually do so because they're head cases, not because they were protected by some scheme. Who know, maybe Stewart is a head case (though there's been no indication). Maybe he's not tough enough (which I don't think you can really know until a guy goes to the NFL). However, from the outside looking in, he does seem to be the rookie RB in the best position to do well out the gate. Now, I'm not sure I rank him above all those top tier WRs that DMD has him above, but I certainly will take him once the sure thing RBs and WRs are off the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheShiznit Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Here is the breakdown and looking at Q4 in games where he had 10+ carries. In 9 games with less than 10 carries, he only once had more than 3.8 YPC. 1 @STL 15-62 (4.1) - 11 carries Q4 for 55 yards. Wierd game - 6 carries > 10 yds and 9 carries <2 yards (CAR win 27-13) 2 HOU 8-31 (3.8) 3 @ATL 11-47 (4.3) - 5 carries Q4 for 10 yards (CAR wins 27-20) 4 TB 2-5 (2.5) 5 @NO 7-23 (3.3) 6 @ARI 10-121 (12.1) - 4 carries Q4 for 92 yards. Ended game with runs of 75 and 13 over final 3 plays. (CAR wins 25-10) 8 IND 5-14 (2.8) 9 @TEN 4-15 (3.8) 10 ATL 7-27 (3.8) 11 @GB 6-22 (3.7) 12 NO 4-19 (4.8) 13 SF 17-82 (4.8) - 11 carries Q4 for 56 yards 14 @JAC 3-7 (2.3) 15 SEA 15-61 (4.1) - 5 carries for 40 in Q4 (CAR wins 13-10 16 DAL 10-60 (6.0) - Only 2 carries Q4 for 4 yards (CAR loses 13-20) 17 @TB 20-121 (6.1) - 10 carries Q4 for 78 yards (CAR wins 31-23) So yes, for the most part you can say that he had more Q4 runs than in any other quarter. In fact in most games he didn't carry until Q2. It is notable too that he had 2 big games of 121 yards each and of those 30 carries for 242 combined yards, he had 14 carries for 170 yards during Q4. The totals from the first three quarters in those two games was 16 carries for 72 yards or 36 yards per game until Q4. So yeah, most of his stuff happened in Q4. About the only exception was the 39 yard run he had in Dallas in Q2 but that was a loss and he was barely used at all in Q4 when the team was trying to win. Pointing at his 4.9 YPC is misleading. Consider that in the nine games where he had less than 10 carries (AKA most games), he only had 46 carries for 163 yards for a YPC of 3.5. His YPC was definitely propped up by what he did in two uncharacteristic games where he had one big run in Q4 of games already decided. No wonder the Panthers went after an every down power back that cost them... oh never mind... full circle I guess... I still wouldn't call it garbage time....unless all the close games when he was in there at the end is considered garbage....but the Arizona game definitely helped his stats. I just feel given an opportunity, that this kid is a really good runner....and I love Stewart...prolly in the third of fourth round kind of love...but I am not going to land Stewart without landing DWill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring Back Pat!!! Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Here is the breakdown and looking at Q4 in games where he had 10+ carries. In 9 games with less than 10 carries, he only once had more than 3.8 YPC. 1 @STL 15-62 (4.1) - 11 carries Q4 for 55 yards. Wierd game - 6 carries > 10 yds and 9 carries <2 yards (CAR win 27-13) 2 HOU 8-31 (3.8) 3 @ATL 11-47 (4.3) - 5 carries Q4 for 10 yards (CAR wins 27-20) 4 TB 2-5 (2.5) 5 @NO 7-23 (3.3) 6 @ARI 10-121 (12.1) - 4 carries Q4 for 92 yards. Ended game with runs of 75 and 13 over final 3 plays. (CAR wins 25-10) 8 IND 5-14 (2.8) 9 @TEN 4-15 (3.8) 10 ATL 7-27 (3.8) 11 @GB 6-22 (3.7) 12 NO 4-19 (4.8) 13 SF 17-82 (4.8) - 11 carries Q4 for 56 yards 14 @JAC 3-7 (2.3) 15 SEA 15-61 (4.1) - 5 carries for 40 in Q4 (CAR wins 13-10 16 DAL 10-60 (6.0) - Only 2 carries Q4 for 4 yards (CAR loses 13-20) 17 @TB 20-121 (6.1) - 10 carries Q4 for 78 yards (CAR wins 31-23) So yes, for the most part you can say that he had more Q4 runs than in any other quarter. In fact in most games he didn't carry until Q2. It is notable too that he had 2 big games of 121 yards each and of those 30 carries for 242 combined yards, he had 14 carries for 170 yards during Q4. The totals from the first three quarters in those two games was 16 carries for 72 yards or 36 yards per game until Q4. So yeah, most of his stuff happened in Q4. About the only exception was the 39 yard run he had in Dallas in Q2 but that was a loss and he was barely used at all in Q4 when the team was trying to win. Pointing at his 4.9 YPC is misleading. Consider that in the nine games where he had less than 10 carries (AKA most games), he only had 46 carries for 163 yards for a YPC of 3.5. His YPC was definitely propped up by what he did in two uncharacteristic games where he had one big run in Q4 of games already decided. No wonder the Panthers went after an every down power back that cost them... oh never mind... full circle I guess... Yes, much of D-Will's carries did come in the 4thQ, but the key point that someone thought they were making, was "garbage time carries because the Panthers were being manhandled". In the games that 'qualify', I see the Cats record in those games as 5-1, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think they beat the 9ers as well. This doesn't exactly back that point up, at all. Seams to me that Fox would have been smart to do this same analysis and see that when D-Will got the ball last year, the team was sucessful. As a Will owner last year, I for one was sick watching the few games I got too, knowing that D-Will was a much better back than Foster has ever been in his career, but Fox was too stuborn to playnhim, having loyalty (why? I don't know) to the vets. I'll go on record as saying the situation will define RBBC this year, with D-Will being far more sucessful than most think, and making them both viertually useless this year. If one gets 65% of the carries, I'd be surprised. D-Will = great value as far as points per draft spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSULions Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I have Panthers season tickets and I like the moves they have made this offseason so far. Back in January, Hurney and Fox met with the Big Cat (Jerry R.) to show him their plans for the team to make it back to the playoffs this year. They had lost their way over the past few years and were not set up to be a power running team that can control the clock, like Coach Fox likes to do. In fact, if you look at the T.O.P. for each of the games last year the only game that they lost when they controlled the clock was the Indy game and the only game they won when the opponent controlled the clock was the Saints game, landing them in the middle of the pack with a 7-9 record. The outcome of that meeting was that they wanted to go back to Panthers football and install an power running game that can grind out yards and make the play action more effective. Foster was never an effective power runner between the tackles so they issued him his walking papers and grabbed JStew as their newer, younger version of S. Davis. They went out traded to get Otah to start at RT, moving Wharton to LG and from out I heard after OTAs, Fonuti was running with the ones at practice, so they are getting a lot bigger on the OL to really try to run the ball more effectively this year. I think eventually JStew will take the starters job with DW being the change of pace back. Adding, Hackett and Moose is a big improvement for the WRs and Rosario has been doing very well at practice so far this year too. The offense with Delhomme at the helm will create many more problems for the defense and take pressure off the pass blocking because they should be able to mix things up better this year so the DL will not be able to pin down their ears to get after the QB as much this year. I think the return of an effective running game will make the passing game better and Steve Smith will have a very big year for the 14 games he will play in. If the offense is much improved from the junk we saw last year, it can only help the defense stay fresher later in the games and help notch a few more wins this year. I think the OL will be much better this year compared to last year, but until they lace them up in September, they will likely not get many accolades from the experts because each of the 5 OL slots will be manned by a new player this year. As far as the conversation about DW, he was not able to overtake Foster because of his inability to block and protect his QB usually left him as the 3rd down back. He also did get a few of his yards during 3rd and long when the Panthers playing for the punt would put it in his hands for the old "draw" play to get a few yards back before the Panthers would punt the ball away, so his numbers are a little deceiving as far as his Avg. / per carry. The good news is that he is doing much better at picking up the blitz and blocking, so he will get more opportunities if he can keep it up. That said, I truly think JStew is the guy to own as Fox and Hurney are on the hot seat as the third straight year of no playoffs will likely find Cowher taking over the Panthers in January. Fox will give the bulk of the carries to the guy that has earned it and I think that guy will be Stewart. I will be at the game against the Colts on Saturday, so I will update this thread with my observations from the game. Hope this helps you guys out with any Panthers players you may be considering in your upcoming drafts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 In terms of Swerski pointing to Smith and Harrington, I think there's a much bigger difference between system QBs and system RBs. Well, that is, if the RB has prototypical physical attributes, which Stewart has. Compared to a QB, a RBs job is much simpler. Take the ball and run up field. If you're fast and strong, it should work out well for you. Obviously there's more to it than that, but big and strong RBs that fail, usually do so because they're head cases, not because they were protected by some scheme. Again, Stewart's backup (Jeremiah Johnson), had essentially the same yds/carry average as Stewart before blowing out his knee halfway through the season last Fall. Both also faced constant nickel and dime defenses, making it easier to run up the middle. Again, I'm not saying that Stewart won't make it in the NFL. He's definitely a skilled player and could be the next Steven Jackson, for all I know. But don't get too carried away with what he did in a gimmicky offense that made Dennis Dixon (whose poor play got him benched in '07) a Heisman candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Again, Stewart's backup (Jeremiah Johnson), had essentially the same yds/carry average as Stewart before blowing out his knee halfway through the season last Fall. Both also faced constant nickel and dime defenses, making it easier to run up the middle. Again, I'm not saying that Stewart won't make it in the NFL. He's definitely a skilled player and could be the next Steven Jackson, for all I know. But don't get too carried away with what he did in a gimmicky offense that made Dennis Dixon (whose poor play got him benched in '07) a Heisman candidate. 5'11", 235, and a 4.34 40. I'm guessing that you don't need a "gimicky offense" to make that work for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 5'11", 235, and a 4.34 40. I'm guessing that you don't need a "gimicky offense" to make that work for you. Cedric Benson supposedly had all of the tools as well... and the numbers in college, in an offensive system that made him look much better than he really was. It's pretty difficult to gauge how a player who ran all over the place in a spread offense in college will translate in the NFL. I'd say that looking at what their backup did on the same offense is the best place to start. Maybe Bellotti was really lucky and had two NFL-caliber backs on his roster over the past two years. Or maybe it was the system. We won't know for a few more months. So have you switched form a Niners to a Panthers fan? You've been swinging from the sacks of Stewart and Steve Smith pretty hard lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Cedric Benson supposedly had all of the tools as well... and the numbers in college, in an offensive system that made him look much better than he really was. It's pretty difficult to gauge how a player who ran all over the place in a spread offense in college will translate in the NFL. I'd say that looking at what their backup did on the same offense is the best place to start. Maybe Bellotti was really lucky and had two NFL-caliber backs on his roster over the past two years. Or maybe it was the system. We won't know for a few more months. So have you switched form a Niners to a Panthers fan? You've been swinging from the sacks of Stewart and Steve Smith pretty hard lately. I'm a Niner fan, plain and simple. It's just that, by virtue of living in NC and not paying for Sunday ticket, I watch a lot of Panthers games. Last year, that wasn't much fun, mind you. None the less, I know that team as well as any other in the league if for no other reason by the amount of info I'm fed about them week in and week out through papers, radio, and TV. As for swinging from sacks? Well, in regards to Steve Smith, I pretty much just took issue with "punk ass bitch". I'll actually give you "punk ass" and am sure that he is among a very long list of NFL players that I doubt would be very cool to hang out with. None the less, I tend to avoid calling hardworking people who I'm certain could kick my ass "bitch". Add that to the fact that he's made himself into the WR that he is by busting his ass and never taking a play off. As for Stewart, I think that Carolina thinks he's the type of back they've been wanting (mostly because they've said that about 100 times), so he'll get every chance to prove it. This is in stark contrast to Williams who was not the type of back they wanted and was merely drafted because he was on the board "later than he should have been". Now, who knows if he's the next Ced Benson or if he's going to pan out. However, after the sure thing RBs go, you can be damned sure that I'll be looking to pick up Stewart. That's really it. See, it's not that big a deal. I'm basically wagering 16th of a team that costs me $100 to field on the fact that I think he'll be good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Here is the breakdown and looking at Q4 in games where he had 10+ carries. In 9 games with less than 10 carries, he only once had more than 3.8 YPC. 1 @STL 15-62 (4.1) - 11 carries Q4 for 55 yards. Wierd game - 6 carries > 10 yds and 9 carries <2 yards (CAR win 27-13) 2 HOU 8-31 (3.8) 3 @ATL 11-47 (4.3) - 5 carries Q4 for 10 yards (CAR wins 27-20) 4 TB 2-5 (2.5) 5 @NO 7-23 (3.3) 6 @ARI 10-121 (12.1) - 4 carries Q4 for 92 yards. Ended game with runs of 75 and 13 over final 3 plays. (CAR wins 25-10) 8 IND 5-14 (2.8) 9 @TEN 4-15 (3.8) 10 ATL 7-27 (3.8) 11 @GB 6-22 (3.7) 12 NO 4-19 (4.8) 13 SF 17-82 (4.8) - 11 carries Q4 for 56 yards 14 @JAC 3-7 (2.3) 15 SEA 15-61 (4.1) - 5 carries for 40 in Q4 (CAR wins 13-10 16 DAL 10-60 (6.0) - Only 2 carries Q4 for 4 yards (CAR loses 13-20) 17 @TB 20-121 (6.1) - 10 carries Q4 for 78 yards (CAR wins 31-23) So yes, for the most part you can say that he had more Q4 runs than in any other quarter. In fact in most games he didn't carry until Q2. It is notable too that he had 2 big games of 121 yards each and of those 30 carries for 242 combined yards, he had 14 carries for 170 yards during Q4. The totals from the first three quarters in those two games was 16 carries for 72 yards or 36 yards per game until Q4. So yeah, most of his stuff happened in Q4. About the only exception was the 39 yard run he had in Dallas in Q2 but that was a loss and he was barely used at all in Q4 when the team was trying to win. Pointing at his 4.9 YPC is misleading. Consider that in the nine games where he had less than 10 carries (AKA most games), he only had 46 carries for 163 yards for a YPC of 3.5. His YPC was definitely propped up by what he did in two uncharacteristic games where he had one big run in Q4 of games already decided. No wonder the Panthers went after an every down power back that cost them... oh never mind... full circle I guess... That's more hardwork then I would put into an argument, but I applaud the information. Since I live in an area between Atlanta and Carolina, I get to see most of both team's games. FWIW, DeAngelo Williams probably would be in the Top 10 if he was the workhorse. I was just sharing what I saw during their games last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I'm a Niner fan, plain and simple. It's just that, by virtue of living in NC and not paying for Sunday ticket, I watch a lot of Panthers games. Last year, that wasn't much fun, mind you. None the less, I know that team as well as any other in the league if for no other reason by the amount of info I'm fed about them week in and week out through papers, radio, and TV. As for swinging from sacks? Well, in regards to Steve Smith, I pretty much just took issue with "punk ass bitch". I'll actually give you "punk ass" and am sure that he is among a very long list of NFL players that I doubt would be very cool to hang out with. None the less, I tend to avoid calling hardworking people who I'm certain could kick my ass "bitch". Add that to the fact that he's made himself into the WR that he is by busting his ass and never taking a play off. I know, I'm just giving you crap. Also agree that while Smith is a punk, he's certainly no bitch. As for Stewart, I think that Carolina thinks he's the type of back they've been wanting (mostly because they've said that about 100 times), so he'll get every chance to prove it. This is in stark contrast to Williams who was not the type of back they wanted and was merely drafted because he was on the board "later than he should have been". Now, who knows if he's the next Ced Benson or if he's going to pan out. However, after the sure thing RBs go, you can be damned sure that I'll be looking to pick up Stewart. That's really it. See, it's not that big a deal. I'm basically wagering 16th of a team that costs me $100 to field on the fact that I think he'll be good. It's so freaking hard to tell with halfbacks these days, partially because colleges tend to run completely different offenses and take an NBA-like approach to defense. You knew that guys like AP, Ricky, and Alstott were going to excel in the NFL. They looked like men among boys. I felt that Faulk was definitely a first-rounder, although I was still a little uncertain about how durable he'd be at his size. I remember watching highlights of LT in college and thought that he might be a stud one day in the NFL... but then again, it's not like TCU was playing the best of the best D-1 schools. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) I should also add that, unlike DMD, I do not have Stewart in my top 25 overall. I have him ranked at about the same spot relative to the other RBs, but will certainly be taking top WRs and likely Brees as well as the others DMD has over him. That pushes him about 10 spots or so down on my overall board. So that pretty much puts him into the 4th round in my 12 team league and 5th of my 8 team league. That means, if I end up with him, he's my RB2 at best and that means that I either have a stud QB or 2 very nice WRs. So that means I'm hardly pinning my hopes and dreams of FF $$ on the kid. Edited August 4, 2008 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 DeAngelo Williams, games with 12 or more touches in a game: 11 games Average 15.6 carries for 70.1 rush yds and 2.91 catches for 28.8 yds, 0.455 TDs/gm Extrapolate those results over a 16 game season: 250 carries 1122 rush yds 4.49 ypc 47 catches 461 recieving yds 9.90 ypr 297 touches 1583 total yds 7 TDs That would have put him as the 10th leading rusher and the 5th best player in yards from scrimmage last year. I think there are a few NFL teams that would have liked that kind of production, and a few FF owners that could use those kinds of numbers - especially since his touches for the season would have been under 300. Williams had 144 carries for 717 yards and four scores last year. Now you have shown how he could have been the 10th best rusher if only the Panthers wanted to do better in games. What if last year he had 103 carries for 613 yards and a gaudy 6.0 YPC? And he had 28 catches for 277 yards? All you would had to do is just triple his workload from six carries per game to 18 and he would have rushed for a league leading 1800 yards. But it doesn't work that way for DW or for Jerious Norwood who is FAR more like DW than almost any other RB in the league. No one seems to think that Norwood is going to be much more of a factor now that they are goiung to rely on a career back-up RB who has never been "the man" and who has never had the collegiate success that Stewart had. The bottom line to all this is that DW has not gotten the job done even with opportunity, CAR went out and got a new guy that seems more in line with what the offense wants to do. We can slice and dice numbers but the actions of the Panthers speak louder. And the overall body of work from DW hasn't improved or suggested that he can shoulder anything more than a part-time load. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 The bottom line to all this is that DW has not gotten the job done even with opportunity, CAR went out and got a new guy that seems more in line with what the offense wants to do. We can slice and dice numbers but the actions of the Panthers speak louder. And the overall body of work from DW hasn't improved or suggested that he can shoulder anything more than a part-time load. That's where you & I differ. I believe that DW hasn't gotten anywhere near a fair shake at earning the full time job. The guy was an animal in college and absorbed tons of work. While I don't expect him to pass LJ's record for workload in a year, I don't see where he couldn't handle 300 touches in a 16 game season. I also happen to be a believer in legitimate featured RBs performing better as their workload increases. It's why I like to look at games where guys get at least 12 touches. They get a feel for the game and make adjustments of their own. If a guy's performance drops off as their workload goes up, I would expect that they don't fit the mold of being capable of handling featured RB work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I suppose the question is... will he get the chance? Not in CAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Not in CAR. +1 Get on the Stew train!! WOOO WOOOO!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Not in CAR. Well, that's the rub, isn't it. This thread is not about who the most gifted RB is between the two, rather, who's the guy to grab this year. For a variety (or maybe just a few) reasons, Fox is not prepared to make DW his featured back but seems to be looking forward to Stewart filling that role. Now, maybe that's not a smart idea. Maybe Fox needs to have tweaked his offense more to take advantage of what DW can do, but he hasn't. So, I'm going to take the guy the HC seems to be excited about using over the guy who he seems almost hellbent on avoiding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 With all due respect - I remember you using this same logic (high draft pick, lot's of money) back in 2005 when Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick for the Bears. That season and the next season saw Thomas Jones being 'the guy' and NOT Benson. I'm just not sure that logic carries any weight in this situation either. I would like to add that, with all due respect, people try to take this outlook every year with rookies. The simple fact is that rookies are more often than not behind lofty expectations that get heaped on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locness_Monster Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 If you look at what Carolina did this past off season with their FA signings, and their draft, it screams "we are going back to power running." In terms of J. Stewart, the only question surrounding him should be "when?" As in, when does he become the #1, the 22 touches per game back, the goal line back, etc. In terms of D. Williams, the only thing he has going for him, IMO, is value. If you are in a keeper/dynasty league, and he's out there this year as a FA, try to grab him on the cheap and stash him away. He's my #1 target for my RB4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring Back Pat!!! Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Not in CAR. Which has everything to do with Fox. Pointing out that they've only had 1 great runner in the past 8 years ago (S.Davis's) big year, and saying that that is all on the RBs they had there is a little optimistic. It can just as easily be said that Fox doesn't like to give too much work to any 1 RB, the same as many other coaches in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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