DeAngelo Williams vs Jonathan Stewart

[Brentastic]

No matter where I read, the consensus seems to be that Stewart and NOT Williams will be 'the guy' for Carolina this year.

 

I want to know why everyone thinks this. If John Fox is known for one thing, it's that he likes his veterans - regardless of talent. Fox has proven year after year that he will start a lesser talented veteran over a newbie. So is there a reason why everyone is ignoring John Fox's history or are people just not thinking of this?

 

This discrepency is messing me up while I'm compiling my draft board - so I'm looking for some valid, useful input.

[DMD]

13th overall pick in the draft that just signed a 4-year deal for $20 million with $12 million guaranteed.

 

From team reports:

 

the Panthers want to get back to a power running attack, which is why they drafted Stewart in the first round (13th overall). He put up gaudy numbers at Oregon last year. With Foster gone, look for Stewart and Williams to split carries with Stewart getting more reps as the season progresses. At 5-foot-10 and 235 pounds, Stewart has 16 pounds on Williams is considered more of a power style back than Williams who is more finesse.

 

It is a question of who you think will be more effective.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Power vs. Finesse running...it's just like fishing...you generally only use the finesse style when the power ain't working.

[Brentastic]

13th overall pick in the draft that just signed a 4-year deal for $20 million with $12 million guaranteed.

 

From team reports:

 

 

 

It is a question of who you think will be more effective.

With all due respect - I remember you using this same logic (high draft pick, lot's of money) back in 2005 when Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick for the Bears. That season and the next season saw Thomas Jones being 'the guy' and NOT Benson. I'm just not sure that logic carries any weight in this situation either.

 

In Carolina, Fox always starts veterans over rookies - ALWAYS (Davis over Foster then Foster over Williams). Hell, he will probably start Muhammed's broke ass this year over other WRs even though we know Muhammed can't burn a CD these days. I just can't see Fox suddenly changing this season when everything about him and his past shows otherwise. I guess I will have to put a big question mark next to the CAR running game this year and take a 'wait and see' approach.

[tbimm]

With all due respect - I remember you using this same logic (high draft pick, lot's of money) back in 2005 when Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick for the Bears. That season and the next season saw Thomas Jones being 'the guy' and NOT Benson. I'm just not sure that logic carries any weight in this situation either.

 

In Carolina, Fox always starts veterans over rookies - ALWAYS (Davis over Foster then Foster over Williams). Hell, he will probably start Muhammed's broke ass this year over other WRs even though we know Muhammed can't burn a CD these days. I just can't see Fox suddenly changing this season when everything about him and his past shows otherwise. I guess I will have to put a big question mark next to the CAR running game this year and take a 'wait and see' approach.

I am going to disagree. The argument is valid but Stewart is a far more talented back than the previous examples. I see Fox unemployed by mid-season if he takes the same approach here!

[bushwacked]

With all due respect - I remember you using this same logic (high draft pick, lot's of money) back in 2005 when Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick for the Bears. That season and the next season saw Thomas Jones being 'the guy' and NOT Benson. I'm just not sure that logic carries any weight in this situation either.

 

Didn't Benson hold out until late into the pre-season? That obviously played a big role on his not getting chances right away.

[Brentastic]

I am going to disagree. The argument is valid but Stewart is a far more talented back than the previous examples. I see Fox unemployed by mid-season if he takes the same approach here!

 

I don't know about Stewart being far more talented than previous examples. He may end up being that but as of right now we don't know what his talent level will be in the NFL. I remember Foster looking very studdly in his first few years in Carolina and Fox still decided he preferred the '3 yards and a cloud of dust' he got from Davis.

 

Also, I brought up this same point-of-view when DeAngelo was drafted because everyone was certain that DeAngelo would be 'the guy' and someone else said the same thing you did regarding Fox being fired by mid-season if that were the case. Well, Foster was 'the guy' that year and Fox is still the coach.

[Brentastic]

Didn't Benson hold out until late into the pre-season? That obviously played a big role on his not getting chances right away.

Perhaps that could explain 2005 but what about 2006?

[Brentastic]

What about this logic... if DW is the guy, wouldn't he already be the guy? He couldn't beat out Foster, so why expect anything but Stewart getting a real chance?

Irish - Foster was never the guy either until Davis was done. To Fox, it doesn't matter if you're the better player, it matters who knows the system and blocking schemes better. This is why he always rolls with veterans regardless of their talent level.

[DMD]

With all due respect - I remember you using this same logic (high draft pick, lot's of money) back in 2005 when Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick for the Bears. That season and the next season saw Thomas Jones being 'the guy' and NOT Benson. I'm just not sure that logic carries any weight in this situation either.

 

In Carolina, Fox always starts veterans over rookies - ALWAYS (Davis over Foster then Foster over Williams). Hell, he will probably start Muhammed's broke ass this year over other WRs even though we know Muhammed can't burn a CD these days. I just can't see Fox suddenly changing this season when everything about him and his past shows otherwise. I guess I will have to put a big question mark next to the CAR running game this year and take a 'wait and see' approach.

 

You leave out critical differences here - Benson was a holdout until the final day of the preseason and Stewart signed at the start of camp. That is a huge difference and one that I would contend partially ruined CB's career. Also, Jones was coming off a season of 314 carries for 1335 yards and 9 TDs. Jones had never been anything but a full-time running back.

 

Williams has never been anything but a part-time back. He has never had more than 144 carries in a season and last year had more than 15 carries in a game only twice ( vs. SF and week 17 in TB). Williams has never proven capable as a heavy-duty back and the fact that the Panthers would spend big money on a back that is the perfect build for a power rushing game also says a lot.

 

I think you are correct in that Fox will start DeAngelo Williams in that first game and will continue for as long as he needs to be comfortable switching the roles. And I would also concede that it is more common for people to be overly optimistic about a change happening. Considering that, Williams could prove to be a steal in drafts this year.

 

What people are buying into, including myself, is that the Panthers have never wanted to use Williams as the primary runner in two seasons. The offense installed last year was supposed to be a perfect fit for Williams. It never happened (and Williams was a "vet" last year) and the Panthers instead opted to use Foster for 247 carries when he was so bad (3.5 YPC) that they just cut him in the offseason. So in an offense supposedly well suited to DW and with Foster generally stinking it up last year and getting released, they still never bothered to rely on DW. Instead, they used their first pick in the draft to acquire a power back that will fit their offense.

 

To me it is not a question if Stewart becomes the primary back over Williams because I cannot devise a reason why that would not happen. To me the question is how successful will Stewart be and how much would that convince Fox to further increase Stewart's role at the expense of DW?

 

Sure it is a risk to happen as any rookie would be. I don't find many similarities between this situation and CHI in 2005.

 

One other qualifier here. I am not so sure that the Panthers even remember what a highly productive back looks like. Consider the lead tailbacks since Fox took over:

 

2002 - Lamar Smith 209-737, 7 TD (this is what it sounds like when doves cry)

2003 - Stephen Davis 318-1444, 8 D (and with the same size and characteristics as Stewart)

2004 - Nick Goings 217-821, 6 TD (Davis hurt after 2 gms)

2005 - DeShaun Foster 205-879, 2 TD (but Davis had 180 carries and 12 TDs as the goal line guy)

2006 - DeShaun Foster 227-897, 3 TD (DW had 121-501 as a rookie)

2007 - DeShaun Foster 247-876, 3 TD (DW with 144-717)

 

So, HC Fox has made do with lead runners being Lamar Smith, Nick Goings, Deshaun Foster and Stephen Davis. Only Davis had any success and was given 318 carries in his first year there when he was 29 years old and had played 7 years in WAS. He broke down the next year when he turned 30. It is my long-held contention that Foster has never been worthy of being an NFL starter and finally the Panthers and the whole NFL also agreed. So Fox has really only had one year with a decent primary RB. And now he has drafted a clone of Stephen Davis only this guy comes off a far more impressive year in college and was drafted at the 1.13 instead of the 4th round like Davis.

 

It is speculation in the end just as expecting Williams to be given more work despite everything pointing away from it - at least after the first few games.

[Seahawks21]

The variable that I see here is that IMO Williams is more talented than most people think and Stewart isn't the Bo Jackson/Terrell Davis that people have made him out to be.

 

Williams has shined pretty bright with his limited opportunities. My gut is telling me that Williams is going to play so well that the coaches have no choice but to play him. Granted, for my equation to come to fruition, Stewart has to struggle a bit, which could very well happen.

 

Really, this is kind of impossible to forecast. You've got a coach that plays veterans, but really, neither one of these guys are "seasoned". We're also dealing with a 1st rounder, so there will probably be pressure from the front office to play him. Unless one of them absolutely goes off or gets injured, my guess is that neither one gets more than 65% of the carries.

 

Where they are being taken in drafts and mocks, I think Williams is the much better value obviously. I have stated a good handful of times here that I agree with DMD, Williams definitely has the potential to be THE steal of fantasy drafts this year. I know I'm going to try to get him on every team I own this year.

[Brentastic]

You leave out critical differences here - Benson was a holdout until the final day of the preseason and Stewart signed at the start of camp. That is a huge difference and one that I would contend partially ruined CB's career. Also, Jones was coming off a season of 314 carries for 1335 yards and 9 TDs. Jones had never been anything but a full-time running back.

 

Williams has never been anything but a part-time back. He has never had more than 144 carries in a season and last year had more than 15 carries in a game only twice ( vs. SF and week 17 in TB). Williams has never proven capable as a heavy-duty back and the fact that the Panthers would spend big money on a back that is the perfect build for a power rushing game also says a lot.

 

I think you are correct in that Fox will start DeAngelo Williams in that first game and will continue for as long as he needs to be comfortable switching the roles. And I would also concede that it is more common for people to be overly optimistic about a change happening. Considering that, Williams could prove to be a steal in drafts this year.

 

What people are buying into, including myself, is that the Panthers have never wanted to use Williams as the primary runner in two seasons. The offense installed last year was supposed to be a perfect fit for Williams. It never happened (and Williams was a "vet" last year) and the Panthers instead opted to use Foster for 247 carries when he was so bad (3.5 YPC) that they just cut him in the offseason. So in an offense supposedly well suited to DW and with Foster generally stinking it up last year and getting released, they still never bothered to rely on DW. Instead, they used their first pick in the draft to acquire a power back that will fit their offense.

 

To me it is not a question if Stewart becomes the primary back over Williams because I cannot devise a reason why that would not happen. To me the question is how successful will Stewart be and how much would that convince Fox to further increase Stewart's role at the expense of DW?

 

Sure it is a risk to happen as any rookie would be. I don't find many similarities between this situation and CHI in 2005.

 

One other qualifier here. I am not so sure that the Panthers even remember what a highly productive back looks like. Consider the lead tailbacks since Fox took over:

 

2002 - Lamar Smith 209-737, 7 TD (this is what it sounds like when doves cry)

2003 - Stephen Davis 318-1444, 8 D (and with the same size and characteristics as Stewart)

2004 - Nick Goings 217-821, 6 TD (Davis hurt after 2 gms)

2005 - DeShaun Foster 205-879, 2 TD (but Davis had 180 carries and 12 TDs as the goal line guy)

2006 - DeShaun Foster 227-897, 3 TD (DW had 121-501 as a rookie)

2007 - DeShaun Foster 247-876, 3 TD (DW with 144-717)

 

So, HC Fox has made do with lead runners being Lamar Smith, Nick Goings, Deshaun Foster and Stephen Davis. Only Davis had any success and was given 318 carries in his first year there when he was 29 years old and had played 7 years in WAS. He broke down the next year when he turned 30. It is my long-held contention that Foster has never been worthy of being an NFL starter and finally the Panthers and the whole NFL also agreed. So Fox has really only had one year with a decent primary RB. And now he has drafted a clone of Stephen Davis only this guy comes off a far more impressive year in college and was drafted at the 1.13 instead of the 4th round like Davis.

 

It is speculation in the end just as expecting Williams to be given more work despite everything pointing away from it - at least after the first few games.

 

Ok, this is what I was looking for. I just needed to probe a bit until I got the information I needed that makes sense. My intent when starting this thread was to be convinced on why this season is different than previous years under Fox. You bring up valid points that are starting to sway me into thinking Fox might finally start the 'potentially' better guy. Although, as I mentioned earlier, I still think he will start D-Will at first until he gains some confidence in Stewart. Hopefully, if Stewart proves worthy, Fox will scrap any RBBC ideas and stick exclusively with the better RB.

 

Ultimately, because of CAR's favorable rushing schedule - I'm just hoping one guy gets the job and he keeps it. Thanks for the in-depth analysis

Edited August 3, 2008 by Brentastic

[WaterMan]

But Foster never was or became a Davis, yeah?

 

True. Foster had a nice run once in a blue moon but they never made up for his fumbles, injuries, or that he couldn't convert short yardage.

[Clubfoothead]

You mean having him at 17 seems high or he's going to be a bust?

 

For the reasons you stated 17 may be high, but it is hard to argue with people speculating that since Stewart is so much better than WIlliams that Stewart will take over the job quickly. Speculation is what this time of the year is all about. And if your draft is in the next week or two, a big question mark next to the Carolina run game might certainly be legitimate but it means you won't get Stewart because the consensus is that he will take over sooner rather than later. To that extent, it really doesn't matter if ranking him at 17 is correct or not --> that ranking is probably a good indication of where you should expect him to go right now so draft accordingly.

 

I really like Stewart and don't think he will be a bust. I even like him in Carolina but I share your concerns. Ultimately; however, I've got concerns about all the RBs ranked below him too. I'd love to move Thomas Jones up but it concerns me that defenses won't have any passing game to respect out of the Jets, IMHO. I'm a Cowboys fan so I'm not moving JJ ahead of him.

 

There are things to be concerned about and maybe camp will answer those questions but I also think he's ranked pretty accurately. If anything, the concerns you have expressed may be a reason to take issue with WIlliams' ranking more than anything.

 

I said Benson would be a bust.

[BeeR]

Williams has never been anything but a part-time back. He has never had more than 144 carries in a season and last year had more than 15 carries in a game only twice ( vs. SF and week 17 in TB). Williams has never proven capable as a heavy-duty back and the fact that the Panthers would spend big money on a back that is the perfect build for a power rushing game also says a lot.

So CAR fried a 1st round pick on Williams....to be a part-time back?

 

Again what you say about Wms vs Stewart is what people were saying about Foster vs Wms. Maybe this is (ie should be) different and Fox will suddenly change his mentality, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

[TheShiznit]

121-501 as a rookie and

 

144-717 second year is pretty damn pehnomenal.

 

Rookie year 4.14 ypc...second year 4.98 ypc.

 

at 4.98 ypc, I can see why Carolina would totally abandon DeAngelo Williams and go with Stewart....cause 4.98 ypc sucks...right

 

LOL....I like Stewart a ton, and will draft him pretty early if I think I need to. But to say DeAngelo cannot get the job done and some rookie who is unproven can....especially when DWill is putting up 5 ypc...that is a tough pill to swallow.

[WaterMan]

121-501 as a rookie and

 

144-717 second year is pretty damn pehnomenal.

 

Rookie year 4.14 ypc...second year 4.98 ypc.

 

at 4.98 ypc, I can see why Carolina would totally abandon DeAngelo Williams and go with Stewart....cause 4.98 ypc sucks...right

 

LOL....I like Stewart a ton, and will draft him pretty early if I think I need to. But to say DeAngelo cannot get the job done and some rookie who is unproven can....especially when DWill is putting up 5 ypc...that is a tough pill to swallow.

 

To be fair, alot of his carries were garbage time since the Panthers were done last season.

[TDFFFreak]

I think the Stewart vs. Williams debate comes down to this principle in fantasy terms:

 

you are either going to have to love Stewart and draft him pretty early, otherwise someone else will grab him before you know it. If you like the guy, but aren't in love with him, forget it in most leagues because there will almost always be that owner or two who will love him more than you. There is no "value" to be had in Stewart this year, unlike...

 

Williams, will be the risk/value guy. You won't be able to get him too late in drafts so there is a risk, but it has a significant payoff for a late-mid round pick if he comes through. Many have their doubts as is seen within this thread. What Williams doesn't have, which Stewart does, are a lot of supporters who are going to draft him real early hence why he can be had a value pick.

 

Personally, I am higher on Stewart than I am Williams and having been burned by Williams last year may have something to do with it; however, the cost for taking a chance on Williams is far less than swinging for the fences with Stewart.

Edited August 3, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[Clubfoothead]

121-501 as a rookie and

 

144-717 second year is pretty damn pehnomenal.

 

Rookie year 4.14 ypc...second year 4.98 ypc.

 

at 4.98 ypc, I can see why Carolina would totally abandon DeAngelo Williams and go with Stewart....cause 4.98 ypc sucks...right

 

LOL....I like Stewart a ton, and will draft him pretty early if I think I need to. But to say DeAngelo cannot get the job done and some rookie who is unproven can....especially when DWill is putting up 5 ypc...that is a tough pill to swallow.

 

I think we've come full circle.

 

Williams was the 27th pick in 2006 and is averaging less than 10 carries a game. That probably explains why they used the 13th pick on Stewart. With the revolving door they've had it seems like they are looking for a workhorse type back and Williams hasn't been that in his 29 career games.

 

I didn't see a lot of Panthers games last year to be able to gauge his 4.9 ypc but he's not getting a lot of work for a 1st round RB.

[Clubfoothead]

I think the Stewart vs. Williams debate comes down to this principle in fantasy terms:

 

you are either going to have to love Stewart and draft him pretty early, otherwise someone else will grab him before you know it. If you like the guy, but aren't in love with him, forget it in most leagues because there will almost always be that owner or two who will love him more than you. There is no "value" to be had in Stewart this year, unlike...

 

Williams, will be the risk/value guy. You won't be able to get him too late in drafts so there is a risk, but it has a significant payoff for a late-mid round pick if he comes through. Many have their doubts as is seen within this thread. What Williams doesn't have, which Stewart does, are a lot of supporters who are going to draft him real early hence why he can be had a value pick.

 

Personally, I am higher on Stewart than I am Williams and having been burned by Williams last year may have something to do with it; however, the cost for taking a chance on Williams is far less than swinging for the fences with Stewart.

 

That's a heck of a post right there, IMHO.

[Bronco Billy]

I'll be interested in seeing if Williams can pull a "Priest Holmes" on Fox & Carolina. Fox is doing everything he can to limit Williams substantially, despite Williams putting up very credible numbers when given the opportunity. BAL put Holmes on the back burner at every chance despite Holmes performing very well when given the opportunity to get significant work and finally let him go away after drafting Jamal Lewis and being convinced that Lewis was the superior back. We all saw what happened there.

 

Not saying that Williams is going to have a Holmes-like emergence after finally working his way out of the CAR fiasco, but geez, the guy has shown some serious NFL ability and explosiveness.

[Brentastic]

DMD - I am honored that my thread here is blog-worthy.

 

Why does it have to be the teams with favorable rushing schedules (CAR and DEN) going through uncertainty at RB? With the RBBC trend being hotter than two rats shagging in a wool sock - it's already tough enough finding an every down RB. My approach to drafting is always eliminate risk first and right now there are only 4 RBs that I feel comfortable enough as starters. There is always risk, but this year (at least for me) seems more uncomfortable. I just hope that CAR at least gets something figured out and announced publically before my drafts because their EOS is very tempting!!

 

Anyways, thanks for all the input everyone - a lot of great posts in this thread

[TheShiznit]

To be fair, alot of his carries were garbage time since the Panthers were done last season.

 

Please explain that...can you back that up with anything remotely close to verifiable....I mean really....DeShaun got all the non garbage carries. Get real. I am not bashing Stew...I am very very high on him....I am just not going to quickly say that a 4.98 ypc is something that is in need of replacing. And there is no way you can convince me that most or all of DW yards were garbage time yards...that is rediculous.

[WaterMan]

Please explain that...can you back that up with anything remotely close to verifiable....I mean really....DeShaun got all the non garbage carries. Get real. I am not bashing Stew...I am very very high on him....I am just not going to quickly say that a 4.98 ypc is something that is in need of replacing. And there is no way you can convince me that most or all of DW yards were garbage time yards...that is rediculous.

 

So where were you at when the Panthers were getting manhandled last season? Williams got the left over carries from Foster and in those losing games those were obviously garbage or against the lowest ranked defenses. I'd like to see him with a workload before I call garbage time YPC impressive.

[TheShiznit]

So where were you at when the Panthers were getting manhandled last season? Williams got the left over carries from Foster and in those losing games those were obviously garbage or against the lowest ranked defenses. I'd like to see him with a workload before I call garbage time YPC impressive.

 

Yes, where was I? Apparently...nowhere you were....because I would never make such a rediculous statement. DW's carries came when they came...all throughout the games in most games...to say he only got the left over carries is really ignorant. I remember seeing him break off a number of big runs early in games...only to have Fox hide him on the bench for some unkown reason...again...post a link.