j2v Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) Consider this Son of Fantasy University. Each day we’ll make a post regarding a fantasy-relevant player or situation; then, we’ll turn the mic over to you and hear what you have to say. Today’s candidate: Rams wide receiver Torry Holt Torry Holt turned 32 in June, and apparently that’s where most fantasy folks draw the line. So what if he just posted his sixth straight 90-catch season and eight consecutive 1,000-yard campaign? Despite having posted almost exactly the same numbers in 2007 as he did the previous year (same number of receptions, one more receiving yard, three fewer touchdowns), fantasy drafters no longer treat Holt as an elite wideout. In fact, he’s barely cracking the top 10 in preseason drafts and rankings. Has Holt jumped the shark? Does Al Saunders’ offense—known more for producing Pro Bowl tight ends and dominant running games than big wide receiver numbers—scare you, or is it Marc Bulger’s fragility and a Rams offensive line that can’t stay healthy? Did the collapse of once-consistent Marvin Harrison precipitate the doubts of Holt? Or are those snapping up Holt after eight or nine or 10 other receivers are taken getting a steal? Edited August 4, 2008 by j2v Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I don't think he has jumped the shark, but I'm not necessarily convinced he's still a top 10 WR. The way I see it, if you enter the draft dead set on taking RB1, RB2, with your first 2 picks, then you won't do too much better then grabbing Holt in the 3rd as your WR1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 As much as anything else, I think Holt has to slip a bit due to the fact that nothing has gotten particularly better since last year. He's older and so is Bulger. The game plan is moving away from the style that allowed him to flourish and would have been that way last year had Jackson been healthy. Meanwhile, most of his peers are coming into their own and improving. So, while each year makes Holt more iffy, each year makes the others more experienced. For me, that puts him squarely at the back of my tier two. I won't particularly mind ending up with him, but that will certainly be because I loaded up elsewhere or he slid. I will not, however, draft him ahead of Colston, TJ, Fitz, Holmes, etc. I'll probably take him ahead of Chad Johnson just because Johnson is such an enigma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliaz Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) Torry Holt will still be a very good #2 fantasy WR. Still, keep in mind that since 2002 he has not fallen below 91 catches in a season and at least 1188 yards though his TDs have been low. Last year he was hurt and still pulled in 91 catches for 1189 yards and 7 Tds. I think Holt should be drafted somewhere in the 3rd round value wise in a serpentine style draft 12 team league. Don't reach for him. A lot of people will and that's fine. let other people in your league grab him in the 2nd round. In an auction league with a $100 cap, I wouldn't spend more than $8 to $10 on him. I'm sure there are still people who are willing to spending $15 - $20 for him....let them. It is all about value, if your league mates want to reach for him, great. If he performs at a higher level during the season, well that's fine, but you didn't take the gamble on drafting him at a higher round or spend too much of your cap money. Projection - 89 receptions, 1200 yards, 7 Tds Edited August 4, 2008 by cliaz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 IN all the drafts I have seen, Holt usually goes late third round or even early fourth round. I do not like the prospects for the new offense - Saunders has never had a WR worthy of being more than a WR3. And Holt seems to play with a knee problem that lets him play but never goes away. That too bothers me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Someone Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Does Al Saunders’ offense—known more for producing Pro Bowl tight ends and dominant running games than big wide receiver numbers—scare you? Yes. Saunder's offenses always flow thru the RBs and TEs. His offenses never produce outstanding WR #s. I won't be drafting Holt this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitbull739 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 In the mocks I have done someone has always taken him earlier than I would have. I expect the same thing to happen in my local. I would not be surprised at a decent year, but I am not expecting anything better than last year. I see Holt hanging around for several more years and eventually ending up in the average category much like the great Rice at the end of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 He slid to me at 4.05 , so I had to take him, paired with R.Wayne. I love the duo for my squad. Holt is no longer viewed as an elite WR by drafters , but if you can put him as your #2 you couldn't do your squad harm. I also agree your reaching in the early to mid 3rd, but you'd have to take him in the 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 I have been a hugh fanboy in the past, but this is the year I finally shy away from Holt. His skills are in decline even without the new offense. I'd still be fine with him as my #2. Bulger to Holt won't just stop overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted August 6, 2008 Share Posted August 6, 2008 I think Holt will be top 15, but I also think Drew Bennett might make some noise this year. He has the hands and is tall. Last year the team was just out of sync due to injuries. If T Holt can be had late I would take him but I wouldnt mind taking Bennett even later if I didnt get to scoop up Holt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 6, 2008 Share Posted August 6, 2008 I just don't understand you people sometimes. The guy plays like and puts up numbers like a #1. Now that Bruce is gone, there is absolutely no question that he is going to get a ton of balls thrown at him this year, just like he does every other year. Guess what....he is going to produce this year...just like he does every other year. 4th rounder?? Seriously?? Absolute gold at that point. He is closer to the #2 WR than #10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 6, 2008 Share Posted August 6, 2008 (edited) He is closer to the #2 WR than #10. Holy Hyperbole, Batman! I think that Holt is more #9 or #10. He isn't the stud from five years ago and his offense has gone downhill. That said, he's still an excellent #2 fantasy option. I'd expect a minimum of 900 yds and 6 TDs this season, with 1100 and 8 being more probable. Edited August 6, 2008 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebdog Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 i've got Holt in a dynasty league, and he'll be on my club for the next couple or three years. his value has dipped in the eyes of other GMs, and he's too consistent to trade for peanuts or drop. he's at the Cris Carter stage of his career where he'll just get it done by not win anything on his own for you. just plug him in as your #2 or very good #3 and don't worry about it. here's hoping Bulger stays healthy all year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 Like DMD, I am more concerned with his ongoing knee issues than anything else. I do not know how many more years he has on his current contract, but I would not be surprised to see him play that out in STL and then retire because nobody else will pay him enough to keep playing on those knees of his. STL last year was so banged up, we have no idea how Holt really is. Personally, I look for him to have a better year this year than last, but it very well may be his last high-producing year in his career. Upside: 96 catches (6 / wk on average) ... 1400 yds ... 12 TDs = 300 pts (PPR) Expected: 80 catches (5 / wk) ... 1200 yds ... 10 TDs = 260 pts Downside (i.e., hurt knees): 48 catches ... 700 yds ... 4 TDs = 134 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 I just don't understand you people sometimes. The guy plays like and puts up numbers like a #1. Now that Bruce is gone, there is absolutely no question that he is going to get a ton of balls thrown at him this year, just like he does every other year. Guess what....he is going to produce this year...just like he does every other year. 4th rounder?? Seriously?? Absolute gold at that point. He is closer to the #2 WR than #10. Losing Bruce adds more coverage to him. I don't see why people like you overlook this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 Losing Bruce adds more coverage to him. I don't see why people like you overlook this. Seriously? Like defenses were giving Bruce any attention at all to begin with, which is why he was able to have any success at all. Bennett draws and will draw more attention than Bruce did, simply because of his size mismatches. It isn't like the focus wasn't already almost exclusively on Torry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 Seriously? Like defenses were giving Bruce any attention at all to begin with, which is why he was able to have any success at all. Bennett draws and will draw more attention than Bruce did, simply because of his size mismatches. It isn't like the focus wasn't already almost exclusively on Torry. So defenses don't cover WRs on a team that is known for throwing, gotcha. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/2914/c...0q8IdzERhr.uLYF Read up on Isaac Bruce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egret Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 My dominating team in my local got old really, really fast. I've had Holt paired with Marvin Harrison for years. I couldn't give either away last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 Seriously? Like defenses were giving Bruce any attention at all to begin with, which is why he was able to have any success at all. Bennett draws and will draw more attention than Bruce did, simply because of his size mismatches. It isn't like the focus wasn't already almost exclusively on Torry. Not when he's on the bench when Avery and Burton outplay him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 Not when he's on the bench when Avery and Burton outplay him. I dont think so...at least this year. I like Bennett, I think he can do good things with a healthy team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 7, 2008 Share Posted August 7, 2008 (edited) Seriously? Like defenses were giving Bruce any attention at all to begin with, which is why he was able to have any success at all. Bruce was the one who drew double-coverage up until about '02 or '03. Then they switched to Holt, who hasn't exactly had a difficult time getting open. I agree that Holt's pretty safe, regardless of his supporting case. Edited August 7, 2008 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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