Sound Off: NFC North rookie running backs

[j2v]

Consider this Son of Fantasy University. Each day we’ll make a post regarding a fantasy-relevant player or situation; then, we’ll turn the mic over to you and hear what you have to say.

 

Today’s candidate: Rookie running backs in the NFC North

 

Once upon a time the Black & Blue Division was the NFC’s home for smash-mouth football; on Draft Day 2008 the Bears and Lions took steps to turn back the clock and re-establish their ground games. Both squads opened by drafting upgrades to their offensive line, then followed in the next round or two with a new back they hoped would quickly become their featured runner.

 

In Chicago, Matt Forte moved to the fore when Cedric Benson received his walking papers. The Bears signed Kevin Jones as insurance, but he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to stay healthy. Adrian Peterson looms as a change-of-pace back, but there seems to be nothing preventing the rookie from handling the majority of the workload this season. Of course, on a team that decided its QB1 on a coin flip the passing game poses little threat, leaving Forte to face defenses massing at the line of scrimmage ready to shut down the run.

 

In Detroit, the Lions used the first pick of Day Two to add Kevin Smith to Jim Colletto’s new run-heavy offense. Tatum Bell remains, but he’s at his best when his touches are limited to a dozen or so per game; that should leave plenty of carries—especially between the tackles—for a back who set the NCAA single-season record for rushing attempts last year. Mike Martz’s departure can only help the ground game, but it’s not as if the Lions will be protecting two-touchdown leads in the second half.

 

Do the newest members of the NFC North’s running back brigade do anything for you fantasy-wise? Are you willing to enter the season with either as an RB3, or isn’t there enough upside for you to take that risk? Should dynasty leaguers be paying close attention to one or both of these backs? Is either worthy to even be on the same field with Adrian Peterson two times a season?

[Avernus]

I actually like Forte better because the OL is better IMO....which isn't saying much...

[TDFFFreak]

I'm with Avernus on this one in liking Forte slightly better. I'd be okay having either guy as my RB3, but that would mean I am stacked at WR and/or QB. I think people are drafting Forte a bit too high though.

Edited August 8, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[Bill Swerski]

I didn't realize that Colletto was Detroit's new OC. Ouch.

 

Not like the Bears are in a much better position, but I at least like their defense's ability to keep games close in the second half. And while I imagine that Garret Wolfe will see a lot of playing time on 3rd down, I'd probably choose Forte by a slim margin.

[Savage Beatings]

I would for sure go with either one of them as a RB3. That's exactly the kind of guy you want as a RB3... someone with the opportunity and upside to possibly perform as well as a RB2 (or more improbably a RB1). If they don't really work out that well, then hopefully you're just talking about an underperforming bye week replacement anyway.

 

The real question in my mind, is if you load up on other positions first, would you take either one of these guys as your RB2 straight up?

[loyalboyd]

I see Smith obtaining 1100 yard and 8-10 TD this season.

Edited August 8, 2008 by loyalboyd

[darin3]

I see Smith obtaining 1100 yard and 8-10 TD this season.

I totally concur. I think Smith's gonna have a nice season.

 

I also like Forte. The Bears are going to be horrible, but will again rely on their defense and the pounding of the ball. Don't expect a big YPC for Forte.

[TheShiznit]

I totally concur. I think Smith's gonna have a nice season.

 

I also like Forte. The Bears are going to be horrible, but will again rely on their defense and the pounding of the ball. Don't expect a big YPC for Forte.

 

I think Forte will score more TD's than Smith. Other than that, I think Smith will outgain him.

[MTSuper7]

Either of these guys is a good choice for RB3 because of the upside. Kevin Smith has been impressive from what I've seen locally here, but any time a new offense is installed, expectations should be low. Add to that the fact that we're talking about the Detroit Lions, expectations should be tempered anyway... But there is enough upside and a good enough passing game to keep defenses honest so that a balanced attack could really work well (assuming the players execute and the play calling doesn't become predictable). I don't follow the Bears as closely, but Forte doesn't seem to be in danger of losing 1st and 2nd down carries or goal line carries, so that's good.

 

For where I've seen them generally drafted in mocks, Kevin Smith seems like the better value to me, assuming he does eventually win the starting job during the preseason or early in the season. Why spend a 5th round pick on Forte if I can get Smith in the 6th or 7th?

[brownseye]

Smith has the advantage here. At least Detroit has the ability to threaten the defense with a hint of a passing attack. They can throw...which will create more quality running scenarios and opportunites for big gains. The only thing they will "throw up" in Chicago is vomit as a result of watching that pathetic offense. I wouldn't touch Forte, in fact we already had our draft and nobody did...

Edited August 11, 2008 by brownseye

[gasface]

they both went ahead of mcfadden in my redraft yesterday

[The Wolf]

I would for sure go with either one of them as a RB3. That's exactly the kind of guy you want as a RB3... someone with the opportunity and upside to possibly perform as well as a RB2 (or more improbably a RB1). If they don't really work out that well, then hopefully you're just talking about an underperforming bye week replacement anyway.

 

The real question in my mind, is if you load up on other positions first, would you take either one of these guys as your RB2 straight up?

 

In a dynasty auction, I took Forte as my RB4 (Behind SJax, Grant and TJones) but in Ladder All pro, I rolled the dice after taking MBIII at 1.09 and then going heavy on WR's: Fitz, CJ, Marshall, and made Forte my RB2. We'll see how it works out.

 

Truth be told, the Bears' lack of a passing game does scare me. Forte is going to be looking at a wall of defenders even before he takes the ball. However, Savage is correct...these are guys with high upside and they are perfect as a RB3.

[ffdude55]

as far as a # 3 RB, I like them both. As far as fantasy production goes, it is really hard to predict. But since. The Lions should have a better balanced offense so Smith might have a slightly better year.

[rattsass]

Not sold on Smith or his situation.

 

And not sold of Forte and his situation either. Let's put it this way. When was the last time the Bears drafted a running back that actually helped them? 1977? I have my blinders on with Forte. I will not be swayed. The Bears are on a losing streak at RB like nobodys business. I'm not going up against that trend.

[Big John]

Not sold on Smith or his situation.

 

And not sold of Forte and his situation either. Let's put it this way. When was the last time the Bears drafted a running back that actually helped them? 1977?

Payton was drafted in 1975.