Swiss Cheezhead Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 First of all, I have no idea what the most current ADPs are for Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (after their suspensions were announced), but I'm assuming they'll both be available in round 5. So, I'm thinking about getting two RBs, a QB and a TE in the first four rounds, then snagging Smith in round 5 and Marshall in round 6. Your WR corps would obviously be hurt in the first three weeks, but you could bridge that gap by snagging Eddie Royal and either Muhammad or Hackett later in the drafts. Going into Week 4, you'd have virtually no weaknesses in your starting lineup. You'd theoretically be better than the rest of the league for the final 10 weeks of the regular season. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 The people at my draft will probably have magazines printed before the suspensions... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SF409ers Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 It's an interesting strategy but I am not sure I would touch Marshall right now. I thought he had a DUI trial coming up and if he is convicted seems he is a lock for a longer suspension. Plus you are really gambling on both those guys being there, or at least Smith, when you draft in the 5th. I think if I saw Smith hanging around in the 4th I might scoop him up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 First of all, I have no idea what the most current ADPs are for Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (after their suspensions were announced), but I'm assuming they'll both be available in round 5. So, I'm thinking about getting two RBs, a QB and a TE in the first four rounds, then snagging Smith in round 5 and Marshall in round 6. Your WR corps would obviously be hurt in the first three weeks, but you could bridge that gap by snagging Eddie Royal and either Muhammad or Hackett later in the drafts. Going into Week 4, you'd have virtually no weaknesses in your starting lineup. You'd theoretically be better than the rest of the league for the final 10 weeks of the regular season. Thoughts? I agree. I'd say 2 weeks. I'd even give up weeks 1 and 2 to get them late. Of course it would have to be in a league without you in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 Not so sure they will last to round 5, at least steve smith anyway. I think you have a decent strategy with this but it is never preferable to have a slow start from your WR missing two games and you really HAVE to get their replacement which means taking them earlier than they would normally go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksu70 Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 I just can't see Smith making it to round 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 An interesting strategy to be sure. If Smith and Marshall were still around in the 5th and 6th then go for it I guess - I just have trouble imagining either lasting that long. The other thing to consider is that even if you land both WR's in the 5th and 6th rounds and you do not get to start either guy until week 3 or 4...I would be extremely worried that they would start off slow after not playing since preseason....and if that happens you are not only sacrificing (or at least playing with a weakened squad) the first 2 or 3 weeks while both guys are suspended but you may lose a couple more weeks while both guys get their timing down. I think I wouldn't mind having 1 of the 2 guys but I think having both would be too big a gamble for my tastes. KO'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 (edited) I agree that is an interesting angle. I'm not so sure it wouldn't work. But as someone else pointed out it would be a less risky proposition taking only one of the two guys, and thinking you can get them in 4th and 5th might be a stretch. Of course someone could come and swipe them right out from under you, then you are scrambling. But I definitely like the idea. Edited August 9, 2008 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 I just can't see Smith making it to round 5. +1 Even with a 2-game suspension I can't see Smith making it past the third round in most drafts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 Not so sure they will last to round 5, at least steve smith anyway. I think you have a decent strategy with this but it is never preferable to have a slow start from your WR missing two games and you really HAVE to get their replacement which means taking them earlier than they would normally go. I just can't see Smith making it to round 5. He's not. I was in an 8 team draft last night and he went at the end of the 3rd (24th pick overall). Now that's certainly earlier than I would have taken him, but not twice as early (which is what you're talking about). I also did a number of 8 team mocks from the #1spot, so was picking 32/33. He never made it to me once. And all of these were post suspension and, by virtue of the fact that they were on-line mocks, most likely consisted of guys who knew he was suspended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted August 9, 2008 Author Share Posted August 9, 2008 Wow -- I guess people are taking Smith way too early. He was an early third-rounder before the suspension. Now, you can slice off more than 10% of his projected stats, based on the suspension alone. To me, the 5th is where he makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 (edited) Considering Delhomme is still a slight risk at QB this year, I'm not sure why Steve Smith's value is still early 3rd round on average. In other news, I nabbed Brandon Marshall in the early 7th round of a mock today. I think the best strategy isn't to target either of these guys specifically. Based on where where I have Steve Smith ranked, I'd be happy to take him if I saw him at pretty much any spot in the 4th round. With Marshall, it's more like the 6th round. Edited August 9, 2008 by MTSuper7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 Wow -- I guess people are taking Smith way too early. He was an early third-rounder before the suspension. Now, you can slice off more than 10% of his projected stats, based on the suspension alone. To me, the 5th is where he makes sense. In a total ponts sense, you are correct, But the people taking him early are just thinking what he can do weekly for them and are willing to rely on others for 2 weeks and then get "Steve Smith" quality weeks from him. That is one of the funky things about automating rankings by stats instead of by hand. In Smith's case it would drop him farther back than he will ever last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 (edited) The 2 game suspension of Smith may drop him from 3rd round to 4th round, but as has been said, he'll be snagged by many if he's lingering in the 4th. You take that suspension up to 4 games, then I think he falls to the 5th or 6th round. Edited August 9, 2008 by TDFFFreak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LosGatosEnFuegos Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 (edited) Interboard League results for Smith and Marshall: Smith: 2.06A, 2.12B, 2.11C, 3.01D, 3.04E Marshall: 3.06A, 3.06B, 3.08C, 3.07D, 3.01E Smith ADP: 2.12 Marshall ADP: 3.06 According to MFL, on average, based on 415 drafts, Smith is the 9th receiver off the board (26th overall), Marshall the 14th (36th overall). I don't think your strategy will work. ETA: In IBL, Smith dropped a few picks after news of the suspension. Marshall stayed about even. Whoever took him at 3.01 E must have been high on him. In general assume those picks are swapped, Smith at 3.01, Marshall 3.04. Edited August 10, 2008 by LosGatosEnFuegos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 I landed Marshall at 4.04 in Ladder All Pro and at 4.09 in BOTH The BcS League. He can be had later than his ADP but it just depends on the draft and how badly someone wants him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 In a 12 team mock I'm in right now with other savvy owners (many of whom are "names" in the FF industry), Smith went at #29 overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undefeated72 Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 First of all, I have no idea what the most current ADPs are for Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (after their suspensions were announced), but I'm assuming they'll both be available in round 5. So, I'm thinking about getting two RBs, a QB and a TE in the first four rounds, then snagging Smith in round 5 and Marshall in round 6. Your WR corps would obviously be hurt in the first three weeks, but you could bridge that gap by snagging Eddie Royal and either Muhammad or Hackett later in the drafts. Going into Week 4, you'd have virtually no weaknesses in your starting lineup. You'd theoretically be better than the rest of the league for the final 10 weeks of the regular season. Thoughts? Without a doubt!! Here is why...You can still plug in another player the weeks they are suspended. So you have to add that to your point total as well. DO IT!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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