Sound Off: Seahawks RBs

[j2v]

Consider this Son of Fantasy University. Each day we’ll make a post regarding a fantasy-relevant player or situation; then, we’ll turn the mic over to you and hear what you have to say.

 

Today’s candidate: the Seattle Seahawk running backs

 

The Shaun Alexander Era is over in Seattle—actually, it had been over for a while for fantasy purposes—and as a parting gift Mike Holmgren is presenting us with a backfield of “co-starters.”

 

That’s right, the Seahawks don’t just have an RBBC situation; Holmgren apparently can’t decide between the sweet mediocrity that is Maurice Morris and the newly-signed Julius Jones. Oh, and T.J. Duckett lurks as well, though he doesn’t appear to be in the mix for significant carries.

 

What’s your take on this mess? Do you lock up the Seahawk ground game with both MoMo and JJ in the later rounds? Does one of them step up and make some fantasy noise? Does such an unintimidating ground game negatively impact a fantasy-friendly passing game that’s nursing issues of its own? Or do you cross off the names of all Seahawk runners before even walking into your draft, just to make sure you don’t accidentally leave with one?

[Seahawks21]

Mo is a backup. Has always been a backup and will always be a backup. Whether or not you believe Jones is going to do any good with his opportunity is a personal projection, but he definitely will get the opportunity, and will get the rock until he proves he can't handle it.

[Seahawks21]

Because Mo Morris is a backup.

 

Remember, JJ ran almost exclusively on running downs, and almost exclusively in the 1st and 3rd quarters, when the defenses were at their strongest. He never had the luxury of running against worn down defenses. Watch the two guys run, and it should be apparent early that one has the pedigree of a starter and one has the pedigree of a backup.

 

Darren Sproles has a higher YPC than LT for the length of their careers. Why is Sproles the backup?

Edited August 15, 2008 by Seahawks21

[Hat Trick]

Why is MM the backup?

 

Uh, I think it's pretty clear, because Seahawks21 says so, that and JJ is the second coming of Barry Sanders

[Seahawks21]

umm but....

 

 

Situation	  G		 	Rush 	Yds 	Y/G 	Avg 	TD 	  1st Quarter	12	 	26	133	0.0	5.1	0	2nd Quarter	11	 	25	79	0.0	3.2	2	 	3rd Quarter	9	 	30	218	0.0	7.3	2	 	4th Quarter	12	 	58	198	0.0	3.4	0

 

So Julius Jones averaged 18 yards per game? Your numbers need a little work.

 

Still, according to your numbers and theories, Sproles should be starting over LT. These are the kinds of things you come up with when you look at numbers to determine what kind of a football player somebody is.

 

You have got Mo Morris on one hand and Julius Jones on the other. Nobody in their right mind can watch these two players play over a decent sized sample set, and determine that Morris is the better player. The same thing, although much more dramatic, for Sproles and LT. Jones hits the hole faster and has better skills in the open field than does Morris. Neither one of them break any tackles or fall forward with much consistency, so that part is pretty much a wash. My best bet for the discrepency in YPC is that Julius Jones is the pace setter, and Mo Morris is the "change of pace" guy. The change of pace guy almost ALWAYS has a much higher YPC than the guy that actually "sets the pace". I understand that Barber is the better of the two Dallas backs, but he surely was aided a bit by the fact that he was the change of pace guy. There is absolutely no way that Mo Morris is a 4 YPC guy if he is asked to carry a significant load. He simply isn't that talented.

Edited August 15, 2008 by Seahawks21

[godtomsatan]

What’s your take on this mess? Do you lock up the Seahawk ground game with both MoMo and JJ in the later rounds? Does one of them step up and make some fantasy noise? Does such an unintimidating ground game negatively impact a fantasy-friendly passing game that’s nursing issues of its own? Or do you cross off the names of all Seahawk runners before even walking into your draft, just to make sure you don’t accidentally leave with one?

 

Something will shake out to some degree or another with all of these questions, but it's too early to determine what exactly is going to happen. My guess is that there will be some value in the Seahawks RB, but not necessarily in one particular player before the season starts. The only one I'd stay away from entirely is Duckett, as I don't expect he'll make the final roster.

[godtomsatan]

Remember, JJ ran almost exclusively on running downs, and almost exclusively in the 1st and 3rd quarters, when the defenses were at their strongest. He never had the luxury of running against worn down defenses. Watch the two guys run, and it should be apparent early that one has the pedigree of a starter and one has the pedigree of a backup.

 

Usually, your posts aren't worth responding to except to point out the complete lack of sense that is applied to typing them out.

 

And I guess I don't really have much more to say.

[Seahawks21]

oops, I forgot to say that those are MM's numbers and to specifically point out that his best numbers are in the first and third quarters... same quarters that you say JJ runs in.

Morris averaged 2 carries per quarter in those quarters, and you are trying to sell that as a significant sample set? One good run would drastically skew that whole statline.

[Seahawks21]

Usually, your posts aren't worth responding to except to point out the complete lack of sense that is applied to typing them out.

 

And I guess I don't really have much more to say.

Absolute genius reply. Thanks for adding something to the convo. You know what, I have never once had one foul word spread your way, and you feel the need to rip me? Point out one time, ONE, that I have been proven wrong about something we disagreed on. ONCE. Then rip me all you want for that thing. However, ripping somebody for no reason when you do not offer any insight of your own makes you a spineless coward. Go hide in your corner and talk crap about people on the internet. Big man. I used to have respect for you, but what a jerk.

[skylive5]

My take on Morris and Jones..... Morris will do anything asked of him and will do his darndest to come through. Jones is about Jones.

 

I do not expect Seattle to have much in the way of a running game this year. Maybe some output by Weaver but nothing that would gladden a FF owners heart.

 

Morris will be needed in the passing game because they have no receivers to speak of....but don't expect anything fantastic there either. Jones will probably get some halfway decent runs in, probably a TD or so, and that will be it. I mean... how can you expect Jones to be better or even as good as he was the last couple years, when he is behind a much worse running line than he was then? At least Morris knows the system and the QB.

 

I am not impressed by either to be quite honest.

[tazinib1]

Is Duckett still in line for the GL work?

[skylive5]

Is Duckett still in line for the GL work?

 

 

Not unless he starts showing something. Still a couple more games to go for him to impress....but I see Morris and Weaver as the GL people at the moment. If Schmitt doesn't get cut he would be my first choice.

 

 

Now.... take that for what it is worth. I have no paperwork, media, or anything else except how I have perceived the situation to back the above up.

[Seahawks21]

Is Duckett still in line for the GL work?

Duckett was basically a lock to make this team unless he made one fatal error, which was fumbling the football. I don't think there is one single thing he could have done to disappoint Holmgren more. Because he fumbled twice in the first game, he has seemingly opened the door for Forsett to make the roster, especially since the Seahawks are trying to relieve Burleson of his kick return duties so he can concentrate on playing WR.

[godtomsatan]

Absolute genius reply. Thanks for adding something to the convo. You know what, I have never once had one foul word spread your way, and you feel the need to rip me? Point out one time, ONE, that I have been proven wrong about something we disagreed on. ONCE. Then rip me all you want for that thing.

 

Darrell Jackson.

[Seahawks21]

Darrell Jackson.

I'll give ya that one. I still would contend that this has proven to be a near disaster for the Seahawks, and I predicted that the move would blow up in their faces, which it pretty much has, due to the spectacular play of Deion Branch. I'll give ya that one. I was totally wrong. Good call. Still, if you have to go back that far to find something that I was so wrong about, and then to have it be that one particular example of all things, you have to admit that you are reaching just a little bit. I thought I had proven enough around here that I wouldn't get ripped, at least without good reason, by a person that hasn't added anything to the topic whatsoever, other than to call me out. If you want to debate an actual topic, I'm always game, and will respectfully argue my points until the cows come home, but don't just stop by in the middle of a discussion and rip me for no reason. What is that?? Seriously??

[HowboutthemCowboys]

My take on Morris and Jones..... Morris will do anything asked of him and will do his darndest to come through. Jones is about Jones.

+1. Jones could'nt carry Morris' jock.

[rattsass]

It sure doesn't look good, but if I was really desperate ( and really really solid at every other position) I would draft Julius Jones. But I would probably hate myself in the morning, and a whole lot more by December.

[JoJoTheWebToedBoy]

Uh, I think it's pretty clear, because Seahawks21 says so, that and JJ is the second coming of Barry Sanders

 

True Dat....

 

 

I wouldn't want to rely on him as a #1 but I actually I think JJ will be a decent #3.

[kpholmes]

Justin Forsett all the way baby...

[bushwacked]

Your guess is as good as mine.

[godtomsatan]

I'll give ya that one. I still would contend that this has proven to be a near disaster for the Seahawks, and I predicted that the move would blow up in their faces, which it pretty much has, due to the spectacular play of Deion Branch. I'll give ya that one. I was totally wrong. Good call. Still, if you have to go back that far to find something that I was so wrong about, and then to have it be that one particular example of all things, you have to admit that you are reaching just a little bit.

 

Explain how the move has "blown up in their faces". I'm at a total loss for this, which leads to a further point....

 

I thought I had proven enough around here that I wouldn't get ripped, at least without good reason, by a person that hasn't added anything to the topic whatsoever, other than to call me out. If you want to debate an actual topic, I'm always game, and will respectfully argue my points until the cows come home, but don't just stop by in the middle of a discussion and rip me for no reason. What is that?? Seriously??

 

...I guess I don't mean to make it a personal attack, and frankly, I'm disappointed you haven't seen my previous attacks in other threads you've done this in () that were far more personal, but you insist on being correct despite logic, reason, and fact nowhere near being on your side.

 

Take Julius Jones as an example. Why in god's name would you make an ascertation that he has a "pedigree as a starter" vs. Morris' "pedigree as a backup", when there really isn't anything for you to base this on. The total numbers indicate Morris performs better, the breakdown of the stats indicate Morris performs better, and they are of the same build except Morris runs faster. Jones was unable to hold on to his "starter" job in Dallas, yet Morris is a backup because you say so? Jones has a playing style that suits him as a starter, yet doesn't differentiate himself in practice for the coach to give him that role? It just is simply not a sensible or logical argument to try and make, so I don't understand why you bother burying yourself in baloney ("1st and 3rd quarter running...") to make a point that simply isn't worth trying to make.

 

I think that the Seahawks are going to produce offensively. The OL was upgraded with the addition of Wahle, and the experience of Spencer and Sims (depth may be an issue, however). The passing attack is such where there are enough bodies to catch and Hasselbeck to throw, with Gil Haskell and Mike Holmgren on the sidelines, the numbers will be there. The only question is what the running game is going to do.

 

There is nothing, inside, outside, upside down, or sideways that indicates what is going to shake out in the backfield, so for someone, supposedly as knowledgable and resourceful as yourself to proclaim Jones as leaps more suited to NFL play than Morris is absolutely ludicrous. Can Jones put up a decent season? Sure he could. Will he? If past performance is indicative of future results, one would think it's not particularly likely given the personnel around him (competition for touches), and the fact he has been getting worse as his career has gone on.

 

If you want to say you have a feeling that Jones is going to do well in this offense, knock yourself out, but there's nothing else to go on. Nothing from the organization, nothing from the coaches, nothing from beat writers, nothing from game performance (yet), nothing from stats/past performance.

[Seahawks21]

Explain how the move has "blown up in their faces". I'm at a total loss for this, which leads to a further point....

 

 

 

...I guess I don't mean to make it a personal attack, and frankly, I'm disappointed you haven't seen my previous attacks in other threads you've done this in () that were far more personal, but you insist on being correct despite logic, reason, and fact nowhere near being on your side.

 

Take Julius Jones as an example. Why in god's name would you make an ascertation that he has a "pedigree as a starter" vs. Morris' "pedigree as a backup", when there really isn't anything for you to base this on. The total numbers indicate Morris performs better, the breakdown of the stats indicate Morris performs better, and they are of the same build except Morris runs faster. Jones was unable to hold on to his "starter" job in Dallas, yet Morris is a backup because you say so? Jones has a playing style that suits him as a starter, yet doesn't differentiate himself in practice for the coach to give him that role? It just is simply not a sensible or logical argument to try and make, so I don't understand why you bother burying yourself in baloney ("1st and 3rd quarter running...") to make a point that simply isn't worth trying to make.

 

I think that the Seahawks are going to produce offensively. The OL was upgraded with the addition of Wahle, and the experience of Spencer and Sims (depth may be an issue, however). The passing attack is such where there are enough bodies to catch and Hasselbeck to throw, with Gil Haskell and Mike Holmgren on the sidelines, the numbers will be there. The only question is what the running game is going to do.

 

There is nothing, inside, outside, upside down, or sideways that indicates what is going to shake out in the backfield, so for someone, supposedly as knowledgable and resourceful as yourself to proclaim Jones as leaps more suited to NFL play than Morris is absolutely ludicrous. Can Jones put up a decent season? Sure he could. Will he? If past performance is indicative of future results, one would think it's not particularly likely given the personnel around him (competition for touches), and the fact he has been getting worse as his career has gone on.

 

If you want to say you have a feeling that Jones is going to do well in this offense, knock yourself out, but there's nothing else to go on. Nothing from the organization, nothing from the coaches, nothing from beat writers, nothing from game performance (yet), nothing from stats/past performance.

This one is right up my wheelhouse. I actually did some legwork on this last night. As I have said before....take all of your stats.....and throw them out the door, especially in this case. You are looking at the wrong stats.

 

I spent about three hours last night breaking down tape of Jones, Morris and Duckett. What I found, first of all, is that TJ Duckett is pretty terrible.

 

Ok. I'm going to try and explain how my process works. This is not my own formula, and I was taught this by someone who is paid very well to study this kind of thing, so I am in no way taking credit for this. The problem is that most people choose to compare apples to oranges. The Cowboys often run from double tight with a fullback, and the Seahawks usually run from three wide with no fullback. How could you possibly compare RB performances when what is asked of the back is so different in the two situations? So I have taken what amounts to random samples from the past three seasons. I tried to find for the most part average defenses. I tried to avoid great and terrible defenses.

 

First, you have to group similar plays and similar formations, the latter being kind of difficult with the particular offensive schemes. Second, you have to stop the play right as the RB is getting the ball and entering the hole. There are almost no RBs in this league that can make plays when there is a defender standing unblocked in the intended hole. What we are looking for, is what happens from this point on. Is the RB able to get through the line when he is touched within the first two steps? Is he able to make the safety miss when given the chance?

 

This is where I'm going to lose a lot of people. I'm just going to recite my notes without any real rhyme or reason.

 

First, Jones played against 8 in the box about 14 percent of the time, versus about 4 percent for Morris. Jones had a 3.1 YPC avg against an 8 man front, while Mo had a 1.9, obviously with a very small sample set. The league average is somewhere around 3.4.

 

Morris, when contact was made within two steps, was able to completely break the tackle only about 12 percent of the time . Jones was only slightly higher at about 16, which was about what I expected. Both are well blow the average of about 21 percent of all starting RB's (2006 season, we haven't done the numbers again since).

 

The most telling discovery I found, is that on running plays between the tackles, where there was no contact in the first two steps, Jones averaged almost 7 YPC versus Morris' 5.5. Basically, this means Jones is capable of getting past the safety, and Morris, well, not so much.

 

The one area where Morris totally dominated was outside the tackles. He averaged 5.1 yards on every play I saw where the designed hole was outside the tackle, where as Jones was only 2.9. The variable I just thought of that I failed to look for at the time, was down and distance. If I had to guess, I would say that the majority of Morris's carries were on passing downs, and the majority of Jones' were on running downs. If I get some free time I will double check, but I don't really anticipate that happening.

 

Also, very surprising to me was Jones YAC. I thought he would be down in the Alexander range of about 2 yard after contact. He actually averaged somewhere around 2.6. Morris was right around 2.2, which is as low as a starting RB would ever be.

 

I believe there are other variables that go in Jones' favor that you cannot measure. Jones gets most of his work on running downs, where Mo got most of his carries in passing situations. Most of Mo's plays are designed to get him isolated and into space, where Jones was usually asked to pound away at the defense in an attempt to suck them in and set them up for play-action.

 

 

There is still a ton of work that can be done that would help, but I don't really do much of this anymore, and certainly don't get paid for it anymore, so I apologize that this wasn't more thorough. My work is about to kick me out for the weekend so I have to wrap this up, but basically what I am trying to show here is.....Jones would have done slightly better in the Seahawks system, while Morris would have performed worse in the Cowboys system.

 

By pedigree, I basically mean born, genetic body and talent. Jones is built to handle every-down play, while Morris simply is not. Jones may not stand out as an every down back, but he can accomplish what most teams will need from him, and can be adequate.

 

Please, don't heckle me about reasons and logic. Most "reasons and logic" that people come up with around here are the wrong reasons, and their logic is flat out illogical. You have to look outside the box for real answers. Most things can be figured out by watching an athlete for just a few plays on tape, and applying common sense. THrow out apples and oranges stats, and rather apply what we have seen from an athlete to the situation that he is in. It isn't about stats or logic, it is about instincts and knowing and recognizing athletes. Ever wonder why your statistical theories usually end up giving you the wrong result after they are tested?

Edited August 16, 2008 by Seahawks21

[detlef]

My take is that if you grab JJ where 21 says you should, you might be setting yourself up for trouble. Just by virtue of the fact that he essentially lost the premier back role in Dallas we've seen the amount of upside he has (not a whole hell of a lot). Also, you can't blame the style of offense Dallas has been running because it's not like they needed another Emmitt to move the chains.

 

That said, he does seems like the guy who I would be most inclined to put my money behind in terms of guessing on who gets the most carries and/or emerges as the clear cut #1. For that, I'm certainly prepared to be the guy who stops his free-fall if, in fact, that's what's happening. That is, if I've got the RB situation well in hand, hell yes, I'm taking him and long before injured retreads or the like.

 

If I'm in a situation where he's one of my starting RBs week one, you can be damned sure it's because I'm stacked at WR and QB and likely have a good TE as well. Either that or I had a really crappy draft or am in a 14-16 team league.

[bushwacked]

Seahawks usually run from three wide with no fullback.

 

I'm fairly positive this is inaccurate. Should I keep reading or would that be a waste of time?

[Seahawks21]

I'm fairly positive this is inaccurate. Should I keep reading or would that be a waste of time?

It is technically innacurate, but not when Morris is on the field. The Seahawks go play action with two backs and run with three receivers. I will look at the numbers when I get home, but I am almost positive that Morris gets the majority of his carries with no fullback, as do most 3rd down backs.