Sound Off: Seahawks RBs

[Seahawks21]

My take is that if you grab JJ where 21 says you should, you might be setting yourself up for trouble. Just by virtue of the fact that he essentially lost the premier back role in Dallas we've seen the amount of upside he has (not a whole hell of a lot). Also, you can't blame the style of offense Dallas has been running because it's not like they needed another Emmitt to move the chains.

 

That said, he does seems like the guy who I would be most inclined to put my money behind in terms of guessing on who gets the most carries and/or emerges as the clear cut #1. For that, I'm certainly prepared to be the guy who stops his free-fall if, in fact, that's what's happening. That is, if I've got the RB situation well in hand, hell yes, I'm taking him and long before injured retreads or the like.

 

If I'm in a situation where he's one of my starting RBs week one, you can be damned sure it's because I'm stacked at WR and QB and likely have a good TE as well. Either that or I had a really crappy draft or am in a 14-16 team league.

I technically have never offered any insight to where he should be drafted. I'm just saying that from where I see him going in most drafts, even though he is creeping up boards a little closer to the season, he is a very good value, and deserves to go higher than he has been. I think he will have 2nd round value, although I wouldn't advise taking him before the 3rd, as he will almost absolutely fall until at least the 3rd anyhow.

[detlef]

I'm fairly positive this is inaccurate. Should I keep reading or would that be a waste of time?

No,. Seattle has never had a decent FB. Mack Strong is a figment of your imagination

[bushwacked]

It is technically innacurate

 

[detlef]

I technically have never offered any insight to where he should be drafted. I'm just saying that from where I see him going in most drafts, even though he is creeping up boards a little closer to the season, he is a very good value, and deserves to go higher than he has been. I think he will have 2nd round value, although I wouldn't advise taking him before the 3rd, as he will almost absolutely fall until at least the 3rd anyhow.

Dude, I'm not going to do the legwork, but I am 100% certain that you've said J Jones is a steal in the 4th round.

 

That sort of sounds like where you're saying he should go.

 

FWIW, if you're in a draft happening outside of Seattle, you can pretty much count on him being there after pick 50.

 

I actually like the guy and have been taking him a number of mocks. That is, when he falls to pick 70 or so. Maybe you'll get a steal there, but not unlike anything else, it's all about value.

[TDFFFreak]

I may not be in love with Jones, but if he's there come the 6th round, I'll grab him (and already did in one draft). He's a good value and easily worth a shot as a RB3 or RB4.

[Seahawks21]

Dude, I'm not going to do the legwork, but I am 100% certain that you've said J Jones is a steal in the 4th round.

 

That sort of sounds like where you're saying he should go.

 

FWIW, if you're in a draft happening outside of Seattle, you can pretty much count on him being there after pick 50.

 

I actually like the guy and have been taking him a number of mocks. That is, when he falls to pick 70 or so. Maybe you'll get a steal there, but not unlike anything else, it's all about value.

Ok. Then thats fine. I'll back that statement all day. That isn't exactly what I meant, but we're splitting hairs at that point. Close enough to what I meant. I do think Jones is a steal in the 4th, so whatever.

[Seahawks21]

No,. Seattle has never had a decent FB. Mack Strong is a figment of your imagination

The days of Shaun Alexander lining up behind Mack Strong and a physical Seahawks running game seem almost an era ago. Even then, Mack was used as a pass blocker and receiver, just as much as a blocker. It is Holmgren's philosophy. They run from passing formations and pass from running formations as much as any team in the NFL. There, is that better?

[HowboutthemCowboys]

If I'm in a situation where he's one of my starting RBs week one, you can be damned sure it's because I'm stacked at WR and QB and likely have a good TE as well. Either that or I had a really crappy draft or am in a 14-16 team league.

Stay away. Stay very far away from Jones.

[detlef]

Ok. Then thats fine. I'll back that statement all day. That isn't exactly what I meant, but we're splitting hairs at that point. Close enough to what I meant. I do think Jones is a steal in the 4th, so whatever.

Well, truth be told. We're not splitting hairs. I'm merely calling you on what you said. If you think a guy is a 4th round steal than you feel, at very lease, that he's going to be a week one starter for you but in reality, one of the pillars of your team.

 

If you're taking him in the 3rd (which I can only assume you're advocating if you say he's a steal in the 4th) then you're doing so in favor of some other very prominent options at other positions which increases the pressure on him being the stud you expect him to be. In other words, you're either taking Jones where you think he should be going (in the 3rd) and settling for 4th round talent at WR or taking a higher tiered WR in the 3rd and still getting Jones in the 4th because that's still about 2 rounds before he tends to be going.

 

If there's one lesson we should take into drafts it's not fixating on any player so much that we're prepared to take him long before he seems valued by most. Sure, you don't want to get greedy so you might want to pull the trigger a round before he seems to be going in most drafts but you're foolish if you pass up on the opportunity to load up on players that everyone else is also high on if the odds are very high that your pet pick is generally going to be there a round or two after you think he should be valued.

 

I hate to break it to you, but there's a very real chance that you're just wrong on this. The same way that all of us are quite likely wrong on a number of our pet picks. Thus, you can't allow yourself to compromise your team to the degree that you're advocating.

[godtomsatan]

I'm going to nitpick a couple of things:

 

I believe there are other variables that go in Jones' favor that you cannot measure. Jones gets most of his work on running downs, where Mo got most of his carries in passing situations. Most of Mo's plays are designed to get him isolated and into space, where Jones was usually asked to pound away at the defense in an attempt to suck them in and set them up for play-action.

 

I appreciate the synopsis and breakdown of things prior to the above, a segment which I will totally agree with in terms of analyzing the two. Again though, I'll go ahead and point out that Jones lost his job in Dallas, and put up marginally better numbers than Alexander did with the Seahawks last year.

 

There is still a ton of work that can be done that would help, but I don't really do much of this anymore, and certainly don't get paid for it anymore, so I apologize that this wasn't more thorough. My work is about to kick me out for the weekend so I have to wrap this up, but basically what I am trying to show here is.....Jones would have done slightly better in the Seahawks system, while Morris would have performed worse in the Cowboys system.

 

Awesome, fine, great, fantastic. "slightly better" in the Seahawks system means what exactly? Slightly better than 3.5 ypc?

 

Please, don't heckle me about reasons and logic. Most "reasons and logic" that people come up with around here are the wrong reasons, and their logic is flat out illogical. You have to look outside the box for real answers. Most things can be figured out by watching an athlete for just a few plays on tape, and applying common sense. THrow out apples and oranges stats, and rather apply what we have seen from an athlete to the situation that he is in. It isn't about stats or logic, it is about instincts and knowing and recognizing athletes. Ever wonder why your statistical theories usually end up giving you the wrong result after they are tested?

 

I will just flat out go ahead and ask what are you even saying here? You seem to be suggesting that Jones will perform marginally better with the Seahawks system than he would with the Cowboys system, yet you also (in other posts) suggest he's RB2 material for this year. To me, "slightly better" than his Dallas production is nowhere near RB2 production. So, I'm a little lukewarm in trying to criticize anything before I even know what you're trying to project.

 

I guess the question here we're trying to figure out is which RB is going to get an opportunity at the RB1 role in Seattle. 21 is obviously a big advocate of Jones getting that opportunity, and I don't dispute that, but I also don't feel like there's a lot to go on that suggests that his ADP is more of a value than Morris' ADP at this point.

 

And no one has even mentioned Leonard Weaver's value in the conversation.

Edited August 17, 2008 by godtomsatan

[bushwacked]

Justin Forsett all the way baby...

 

 

After several nice special team returns and another nice job running tonight, he is again making a very strong case for making the roster.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Forsett looks great out there...although it is up against the 3rd and 4th strings...guy runs with some nice balance.

[bushwacked]

And despite 21's man-crush, JJ did nothing tonight to separate himself from going into the season as a total share plan with Maurice Morris. In fact, it seems as though Morris has the edge on being the "starter" for whatever that is worth. I will say that Jones seems to do a great job picking up the blitz on passing downs, so adjust your cheet sheets accordingly.

[cmutts]

And despite 21's man-crush, JJ did nothing tonight to separate himself from going into the season as a total share plan with Maurice Morris. In fact, it seems as though Morris has the edge on being the "starter" for whatever that is worth. I will say that Jones seems to do a great job picking up the blitz on passing downs, so adjust your cheet sheets accordingly.

 

Morris has been named the starter for the 3rd preseason game. This is usually when the starters play the first half and maybe part of the 3rd. I would say he definitly has an edge.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Morris has been named the starter for the 3rd preseason game. This is usually when the starters play the first half and maybe part of the 3rd. I would say he definitly has an edge.

shhhh!

[Hat Trick]

Julius Jones in the 3rd or 4th round? I'm sorry but.......... Are you serious?

[panhead55]

The reality is that niether Jones nor Morris is a full time back. I take Holmgren at his word that they are "co-starters" thus deminishing the value of both. I think either can be a servicable #3 back in a PPR league and a #4 or 5 back in a non PPR league. I won't be drafting Jones given his higher ADP (5th rd?), but I think Morris provides excellent value at his ADP (11th?). I look for these two to put up similar numbers. I don't think we"ll see Forseth barring injury.

 

This opinion is from a less optimistic Seahawk fan.