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KP's Raider Report


kpholmes
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With two preseason games played for the Raider's starters, it's time I weigh in my homer analysis before everyone's Fantasy Drafts are in the books. You guys contribute a great wealth of knowledge to my fantasy football experience here at the forums every year, and this is just a small way I can give back to everyone.

 

If you feel like you already have a general understanding of what's going on with the Raider's and their starters, there's probably not much you'll get out of this - but if you're someone who would like to know where some of these players should fall ranking wise and why, hopefully you'll find the answers here. :D

 

KP's Offensive Breakdown

 

Quarterback:

Jamarcus Russell is the future of this franchise at the QB position, and it will take two seasons or so of failure before anyone considers writing him off. Missing all of training camp his rookie season greatly set him back as far as general quarterback progression into the NFL, and while he did play a little bit towards the end of last season, this really should be considered his rookie year. After struggling through out training camp and in his preseason opener against SF, Russell finally put on a show for Raider fans and fantasy owners alike against the Titans. Among other things, his pocket presence was the most notable improvement against TEN; when pressure came from the outside, he stepped up into the pocket and made a throw down field to his TE and when the pocket collapsed on numerous occasions he was able to roll outside, plant his feet and make a smart and safe throw. There were also occasions where he really took advantage of his height and stood tall in the pocket after a play action to complete the passes over the middle. At least twice during the Tennessee game Russell was able to outrun the Titan's DEs on his bootleg passes or simply broken protection. Not too bad for someone rumored to weigh 300 LBs. (Currently weighing in at 265) Overall, Russell is a work in progress. He won't lose the starting job any time soon, but that doesn't mean he'll be playing like a veteran either. While he seems to be greatly improving his presence in the pocket and ability to command the offense, he still makes careless mistakes and rash throws. In both preseason games he has made poor decisions when determining where to throw the ball, and simply bad throws. Smart decision making and precise throws will come with time, and right now Russell is progressing at a decent rate. Expect up and down numbers from Russell this season, but overall he will struggle this year as the Raider's starting QB.

 

Fantasy Implications: Russell should be no more than a low tier QB2 in any league. He will play very inconsistently in his second year, and should only be used as a bye week filler unless dramatic improvement is shown. Keep his value fairly high in dynasty leagues however, as he is young and will have lots of time to improve.

 

Runningback

After working hard for several seasons behind Lamont Jordan and Tyrone Wheatley, Justin Fargas finally earned the starting job in Oakland last season. After ending the season by signing a decent contract extension, Fargas still holds the #1 RB spot among the Raider's very crowded backfield. This year he will find himself in a RB committee mostly with Darren McFadden, but Michael Bush will get in on the action as well. Fargas is a back that plays very physically and will sacrifice his body every down for the extra yard. While he has a great burst between the tackles, it's not a sideline to sideline kind of speed that allows him to stretch the field. Expect to see Fargas used as the workhorse back in the committee this season, being used off tackle to get the must-have yardage. This pre-season has been nothing great for him; 5 carries for 25 yards against SF and 3 carries for 3 yards against TEN doesn't look good on paper when you're battling the #1 RB in this year's draft for the majority of carries.

Unlike Fargas however, Darren McFadden has looked great this preseason rushing for 48 yards on 12 carries against SF and 44 yards on 6 carries in Tennessee and the reports out of training camp have been nothing but great things said about McFadden. It's also worth mentioning that McFadden worked amazingly hard to get his contract done in record time so he could jump into the Raider's offense and begin learning the system. Against both SF and TEN he ran hard, breaking numerous tackles in the backfield before bouncing outside with runs and also showing great patience when running between the tackles. McFadden will be used inside and outside the tackles on his runs, but we'll also frequently see him lined up at WR. Like Reggie Bush at USC, Kiffin will use McFadden's speed to mismatch a linebackers' coverage, or simply open up the defense for Fargas to run inside. Regardless of where he plays, he will be a player that defenses will always need to keep tabs on; as a rookie the sky is the limit for McFadden. While many might view his RBBC situation as a negative thing, he was amazingly successful at Arkansas splitting carries with Felix Jones, and at this point in his career he has yet to prove he can be an every down back.

With McFadden and Fargas getting brand new contracts, Michael Bush appears to be the odd-man out of the Raider's running backs. Early offseason rumors hinted that Bush might be traded to a team that could utilize him more than the Raiders, but nothing ever came from that. Kiffin believes that you can never have too much depth at this position, so unless an amazing offer comes Oakland's way, expect to see Bush as RB3 all year long. While his preseason games have been solid (8 carries, 27 yards, TD and 14 carries for 59 yards) he was playing against second team defenses. It has been mentioned that he will act as a change of pass back, and even get carries in the red zone.

Overall the Raider's RBs will provide a great ground attack for Kiffin and take a lot of pressure off of Russell. With a solid 3 RB rotation, it is incredibly possible to see Oakland with 150 rushing yards a game. Fargas and McFadden are in a RBBC for now, but if McFadden progresses and begins to prove he can take on a larger role, don't be surprised to see Fargas fall into a 3rd Down RB role as early as halfway through the season. Expect 90% of the teams rushes to be split evenly between Fargas and McFadden with Bush and Grifith taking up the last 10%.

 

Fantasy Implications: While having so much depth is great for Oakland, this is a nightmare situation for any fantasy owner. Fargas and McFadden are really the only players with any redraft value this season, while all three backs should be on rosters in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately for Fargas he has no where to go but down on the Raider's roster, and Bush is now stuck behind a first round draft pick. If you're going to be drafting anyone, McFadden is the obvious choice because of his big play ability and upside, but unless he breaks out big this season, none of these RBs should be counted on as anything more than an RB3 or filler for your RB2 on bye weeks.

 

Wide Receivers

If your head hurt thinking about the running back situation, the Raider's WR corps is even more of a doozy. Javon Walker is currently listed as the Raiders WR1, but no one knows how long that will last. Between talk of retirement, being abducted and assaulted, having a terrible training camp, enduring emotional trauma as Darrent Williams died in his arms, and his bad knee, Walker has a lot to prove to the Raiders - especially to live up to his monster contract. His play in the preseason has been poor, if anything; after two games he now has 0 catches for 0 yards, despite being targeted by Russell on numerous occasions. Against the Titans on third and short, he beat his man on the quick slant and was targeted for the easy first down... but dropped the ball. While he has shown glimpses of his physical abilities, his motivation and determination will be questioned by everyone in the organization until he proves he wants to play football at the level he once was capable of. Don't expect him to sit on top of the depth chart for very long.

Ronald Curry has proven to be a go-to target for all 2,349,675 Raider quarterbacks over the past three seasons... when he plays. He is a physical ball player who is able to get open underneath the safeties and make a play with his speed. Currently listed as the starting WR opposite of Walker, Curry could have a very productive year if he can stay healthy. Expect him to be one of the players Russell leans on very early on if he begins to struggle behind the Raider's offensive line. If Carter proves he can be a reliable target, count on seeing Curry in the slot in 3 receiver sets, as he uses his speed across the middle of the field for mismatches.

Johnnie Lee Higgins and Drew Carter are the other two receivers in the mix. Carter is currently leading the battle and will see his playing time split outside and in the slot. While his training camps have failed to impress any of the coaches, if Higgins continues to put the ball on the ground Carter will be Oakland's WR3. Higgins' speed is an amazing asset that impresses the Oakland coaches, but as long as he continues to make mistakes (fumbles last season, fumble TD this preseason) the coaching staff will be hesitant to put the ball in his hands. Both of these WRs will also lose playing time to McFadden as he will line up in the slot through out the game.

While Walker and Curry have the potential to be solid go-to targets for Russell, their health histories beg to differ. While injury is never wished upon any player, the odds are not in their favor and we can assume one of them will not be on the field at some point this year for the Raiders, giving Carter or Higgins a shot. While Carter might win the battle early on, Higgins is considered a project for the offensive coaching staff, and if they can trust him with the ball, they'd love to get it to him.

 

Fantasy Implications: While none of these guys should even be considered for a WR1 or WR2 spot on any roster, they all have upside as a WR3/WR4 simply because the expectations have been set so low. The one thing Raider WRs have going for them however is that they will often times be left in single coverage eight man fronts thanks to the rushing trio - leaving some room for potential big plays to be made... maybe. In my opinion, Walker won't be around long and Curry will do as he has for the past few seasons: act as a crutch for Russell and be Oakland's leading receiver. In deep leagues and dynasties, Higgins and Carter should be owned simply in anticipation for one of Oakland's injury prone starters to sit. Overall... not much to see here folks.

 

Tight End

Whispers around Oakland's training camp is that second year tight-end Zach Miller has Pro-Bowl written all over him. His size and speed make him a great target for Russell, as he is able to separate from linebackers and play against safeties' man coverage. He began to emerge as a reliable target during his rookie campaign last year, and has continued that reputation this season, being one of Russell's few targets during camp and preseason games that doesn't drop balls thrown his way. Miller has looked great this preseason, opening up all kinds of space underneath the safeties to make plays for Russell. After improvising in the end zone, he was able to provide a last second target for a scrambling Russell and beat Kieth Bullock on a diving catch for 6. Expect to see Miller in any passing situation, as he is one of Oakland's most reliable receivers. He will also be #1 on a lot of the checkdown's in the redzone,

 

Fantasy Implications: Zach Miller should be considered a TE2 with upside, and owned in every dynasty league. Oakland's offensive passing game might look a little shaky right now, but Miller appears to be Russell's go-to guy when he's in trouble. While his receiving skills will provide a great weapon down field, there is concern that until the Raiders can completely solidify their offensive line, Miller's production as a receiver will hurt as he will be frequently utilized for his blocking skills. As Russell improves as a QB, expect Miller's numbers to improve at the same pace. Things are just getting started for Miller.

 

Offensive Line

Always a question in Oakland... this year the starters appear to be (from left to right) Kwame Harris, Robert Gallery, John Wade, Cooper Carlisle, and Cornell Green. While the crew is still significantly better than lines we've seen in Oakland lately, there are still struggles. No one in the group is completely solid, and the Raiders are still looking to find that franchise left tackle. Or any tackle. Or any lineman for that matter. Wade and Gallery were manhandled by Albert Haynesworth during the TEN game (yes, while they were double teaming him), and Harris and Gallery failed to set up a screen later in the game, leaving Fargas looking downfield at Titan linebackers. Compared to the dismal pass blocking, the run blocking has dramatically improved in the past few seasons, opening up great holes for the RBs inside, and quickly getting outside on pitch plays to block down field. While Carlisle and Green seem to be adequate enough on the right side, expect the Raiders to play musical-lineman on the left side all season long.

 

Fantasy Implications: This offensive line hurts everyone's value until it gets better. The running game will fair alright, but the real challenge will come in the amount of time this line can give Russell to throw. During the Tennessee game, Russell was on the move a lot, often times in full sprint outside of the pocket - not quite the protection Russell owners would like to see. Despite these concerns however, the line is getting better every year, and in a growing and learning offense, we can expect to only see things get better for the offensive line before it gets worse.

 

 

KP's Quick IDP Rundown

 

Defensive Line

Expect Derrick Burgess to return to his Top-15 DE form. He's put on muscle this offseason and has been very impressive during training camp. Ryan plans on using him as a stand up OLB when the Raiders occasionally play in the 3-4 this season, trying to use his speed on the outside to help get a handle on their run defense containment problems. Burgess has said he's ready to prove to everyone he is more than just a pass rusher. If he can stay healthy this year, he is a DE1 in every league.

In leagues that require a DT as a starting position, Tommy Kelly should be considered a great candidate at DT2. He's showed he is ready to be the starting, money making tackle in Oakland this preseason by causing heaps of trouble for SF's first string offensive line.

 

Linebackers

MLB Kirk Morrison looks to have an even better season this year by silencing the critics who question his ability to stop the run. Regardless of whether he does or not, he's a Top 10 LB in every league, and that won't change this season. Other notes on Morrison is that he will be Oakland's defensive captain wearing the headset and he is also playing in the last year of his contract.

WLB Thomas Howard put on more muscle this off season, but assures reporters that he's just as fast. If you didn't believe him then, then you sure believed him when he came blitzing at Vince Young straight down the middle of the field. Howard is a player who will put up consistent LB3 numbers, but because of his speed and pass coverage abilities has games where he simply explodes on the defensive side of the ball putting up LB1 numbers. He should be considered a low LB2 with lots of upside every week.

Both of these linebackers are very young and should be on long contracts in every dynasty league.

 

Defensive Backs

Gibril Wilson will be a tackling machine playing the SS role in Oakland. With the struggling rush defense over the past few years, Wilson will find himself frequently playing inside the box to help with run support. Expect Wilson to put up top 5 numbers among NFL safeties, and top 10 numbers among DBs.

Michael Huff is in a make or break year. He's finally returning to his FS position where he played so well at Texas, and because of it he will be out of excuses for his mediocre performance. As a roaming safety it's unclear what kind of numbers he'll put up, but don't expect much more from what we've seen. Huff should be a DB3/4 on your roster, and until he proves he can regain his nose for the ball, that's probably where he'll sit this season.

 

 

Well, for those of you that had little knowledge about the Raiders and their starters going into your drafts, I hope this proved to be informative.

And for those of you that already knew most of this... I tried to warn you.

 

It's very late... I hope everything made sense... :wacko:

 

KP

Edited by kpholmes
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Well, for those of you that had little knowledge about the Raiders and their starters going into your drafts, I hope this proved to be informative.

And for those of you that already knew most of this... I tried to warn you.

 

It's very late... I hope everything made sense... :D

 

KP

 

 

:wacko: Good stuff - thanks...

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GREAT JOB :D:D

 

Nice to see a Raider fan that can take off the silver colored glasses once in awhile :D:wacko:

 

I hope the Raiders get better in the next couple of years because it is always more fun for the division and for a Charger fan to "HATE" a good Raider tean than one the, welll.... is not good!?!? (Trying to be nice)

 

Never had a Raider on any Fantasy team and never will because I can't bring myself to "root" for any of them. BUT.... This was an excellent analysis!

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Kiffin comments on Walker, Russell and Higgins' performances so far this preseason -

 

From InsideBayArea.com

 

Walker’s story is still playing out, but dropping a slant pass from JaMarcus Russell to open the game and doing little during his time in the game earned him another on-the-record flogging from Kiffin.

 

“The discouraging play was Javon dropping that slant pass on third down, our first shot at keeping a drive alive,” Kiffin said.

 

That statement, by the way, came in Kiffin’s’ opening remarks, before he was ever asked a question.

 

Later, when pressed regarding Walker, Kiffin made it clear he hasn’t been happy with either preseason game.

 

“There’s a couple of balls there that we would have liked him to come up with. At the end of everything, all that matters as you take everything in is how do you perform on game day,” Kiffin said. “For him not to make those plays or the first game there was a fade that we throw to him that he didn’t go up and get, that’s discouraging because he was paid an awful lot of money, paid like one of the top five receivers in the NFL. We need him to make those plays.”

 

Kiffin had expressed optimism regarding Walker as camp closed, citing improved practice sessions.

 

– Russell, meanwhile, earned nothing but praise.

 

Russell did virtually all his damage to the Tennessee defense on a single possession, which resulted on a 10-yard touchdown pass to Zach Miller.

 

In the 24 other plays in which Russell was on the field, the Raiders gained 62 yards _ and 26 of those came on a run by Darren McFadden. Not his fault, Kiffin said.

 

“There was nothing to point at him as far as him not doing things right,” Kiffin said. “It was either things weren’t there or a guy wasn’t making a play for him. There was nothing on his behalf. I thought he played really well when you looked at the film, with his composure, and his energy, and his excitement.

 

“The more he can continue to perform like he did in that one drive, where he makes the right decisions, and there are plays in there where there were guys that were deep that he could have forced it in to but he went for the 5-yard gain. The more we can do that, the more we’ll throw the ball and the more we’ll be a better team.”

 

– It’s not exactly a vote of confidence, but Johnnie Lee Higgins will get another shot at being the Raiders punt return and kick return specialist because there is no one else.

 

After Higgins’ fumbled punt inside the 5-yard line resulted in a Tennessee touchdown, Higgins went back on the field to return kickoffs (it was a bloop kick fielded by Paul McQuistan) and was sent in the game to run an end-around (one of two he had in the game).

 

“We were trying to work through it so he can develop a mentality of going on to the next play and not letting anything affect him,” Kiffin said.

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Kiffin is publicly calling out Al Davis and how he runs things... Looks like things could get rocky in the Raiders front office...

 

 

 

By Jerry McDonald - NFL Writer

Monday, August 18th, 2008 at 4:15 pm in Oakland Raiders

 

One thing I think I’ve learned about Lane Kiffin is he is not a spontaneous guy. He thinks about what he says, how he says it and has a good idea how it will be perceived.

 

So if you want to believe Kiffin isn’t taking veiled jabs at Al Davis over the personnel issue, be my guest. The 80-man roster is an issue all over the league, but when asked why the Raiders looked at so many more players last year, Kiffin’s response was clear.

 

“You’ve got to be willing to release people,” Kiffin said. “When guys are in the training room, they’re not out here practicing, you’ve got to be willing to release ‘em and live with it and pick other people up for more competition.”

 

Release people. The league doesn’t release people. Teams release people.

 

I’ve covered the Raiders for 13 years and one thing has remained constant. If you’re from a local newspaper, particularly one with an “Oakland” affiliation, and write something about the coach that puts him in a bad spot with the owner, there is a follow-up phone call from either the P.R. department, an administrative assistant or even the coach himself.

 

You’re inferring the wrong thing. That’s not what I (or he) meant to say. You’re way off base. It was a misquote. You took it out of context. You blew it way out of proportion.

 

If it’s from the P.R. department, it will be along the lines of, “No, what Lane meant was this . . . ”

 

It doesn’t happen some of the time. It happens every time. The Raiders are sensitive to how Davis is portrayed and believe, with some justification, he too often takes an unnecessary beating in the media.

 

Know how many phone calls have come from either the Raiders or Kiffin to say that “Rostergate” is a big mistake?

 

Zero.

 

I can assure you there are people in the building who are baffled and even a little disgusted with the way Kiffin is voicing his displeasure in the media. He hasn’t gone out of his way to bond with anyone who isn’t directly involved with the on-field operation.

 

I admit it is pretty interesting to be around. None of Kiffin’s predecessors have played it like this. You’d hear of some frustrations, but never on the record. Many people who work or have worked for the Raiders consider taking on Davis in public as the kiss of death.

 

Once Marcus Allen went on Monday Night Football and made their problems public, any chance of working out their differences vanished. Probably forever.

 

Also unheard for a Raiders coach, or most coaches in the league for that matter, is referring to the paychecks of highly-paid players such as Javon Walker and Tommy Kelly, and the performance standard that money represents.

 

At this point you wonder if this is even a battle worth fighting. I get the whole competition thing, you want to bring in new faces now and then to keep people on edge and aware of how precarious a roster position can be.

 

But what are you talking about, really? Bringing in guys who weren’t good enough for someone else’s team to replace guys who aren’t good enough for your team. There isn’t likely to be a difference-maker in the bunch.

 

After a flurry of camp activity when Kiffin had his training camp honeymoon as the Boy Wonder coach, he started to understand things move slowly when Jarrod Cooper remained on the roster for weeks with a torn ACL. This training camp, Greg Wesley came in with back spasms, John Bowie had a knee injury and Grant Irons pulled a hamstring in the first days in Napa. Mark Wilson blew out a knee yet remained on the roster for days.

 

Wide receivers with the exception of Todd Watkins and lately Chaz Schilens, have been a disappointment. You work with Walker, Ronald Curry and Drew Carter. You can see Kiffin’s point in not being able to ship out a no-chance receiver such as Chris McFoy, Drisan James or perhaps even Jonathan Holland simply to get some new blood for James Lofton to work with.

 

(Arman Shields does not a apply here. In the practices Shields participated in, Lofton was riding him hard, and it seemed clear he was doing it because the Raiders think he’s got some real talent. As stated before, I’d be surprised if he is not placed on injured reserve. Shields isn’t eligible for PUP like Michael Bush a year ago because he didn’t open training camp on PUP).

 

Whether borrowed or something he came up with on his own, Kiffin’s strategy for being the Raiders coach is similar to Jon Gruden’s. Stick with your philosophies and ideals in terms of running the offense. Do your best to bond with players and build a level of trust. Don’t let organizational quirks affect your ability to do your job.

 

Gruden, however, never set fire to a bridge while he was standing in the middle of it, which is why he lasted through two .500 seasons before the Raiders went 12-4.

 

Kiffin has only one way to make this right. If he wins, he turned around the Raiders. If he loses, the smartest 33-year-old head coach you’ve ever seen has a heck of a consolation prize. A potential in-season firing with pay while he looks for his next job, and a national perception that nobody can win coaching the Raiders.

 

If Kiffin is fired, or even more limited in what Davis allows him to do... things will get even worse in Oakland.

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Great work KP! Enjoyed the read. I disagree though with the Raider Running backs being a rb3. I think with the Raiders running so much Both Fargas and McFadden could be great rb2 options each week! I'm really not counting on Fargas staying healthy for long so I could easily see McFadden taking over as rb1 sometime this season! I like Bush, If Fargas or Mcfadden happen to go down or both, Bush has shown he is capable of being a rb2 if given an opportunity to play. I pretty much stayed away from any Raider WR's this season as I do not expect too much from any of them .I did go after Zach Miller in many of my drafts ( I got him for 2 bucks in my dynasty :D ) I expect him to have a great season! As far as the defense goes, I like this group fantasy wise maybe though more on an IDP level. I targeted Gibril Wilson and expect him to rack in the tackles! I also like Huff in his new spot and expect him to do well there. Thanks again for the write up :wacko:

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Nice stuff, thanks.

Tight End

Whispers around Oakland's training camp is that second year tight-end Zach Miller has Pro-Bowl written all over him.

If you're talking Zach Miller this year and beyond you have to mention OC Greg Knapp. In the 4 years Knapp was OC in ATL, Crumpler made 4 Pro Bowls.

Edited by kingfish247
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Nice report, thanks... who will be the starting SSLB? Last year the "other Thomas" put up decent tackle numbers....

Yea... it's an open competition right now.

Ricky Brown came into camp and really impressed a lot of the coaches, so they're going to give him the start.

But until the season starts they'll be rotating Brown/Robert Thomas/Sam Williams/ and even Archulleta to try and find someone to cover the strong side.

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Just to keep things updated...

Walker has continued to struggle all week long; at one point he dropped a pass in the endzone right in front of Al - he then waved to Davis and was completely ignored.

 

Kiffin has pretty much stated it's do or die Saturday night for Walker - as he plans on completely abandoning the run against the Cardinals and seeing if his first string team can air it out. The first team will play into the third quarter, and don't expect to see much of McFadden or Fargas unless they're catching. Look for Russell to have around 30 passes.

 

Great opportunity for everyone to get a chance to see the WR circus in Oakland... :wacko:

Edited by kpholmes
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