Bronco Billy Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I'm not convinced that getting a guy 2 picks after "you should" is really all that big of a value. If you have a top 6 pick, the odds of you drafting a player that can actually outplay his ADP is extremely rare. The only thing you hope for is that the player doesn't play one round below his ADP. This is one of those rare opportunities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 If you have a top 6 pick, the odds of you drafting a player that can actually outplay his ADP is extremely rare. The only thing you hope for is that the player doesn't play one round below his ADP. This is one of those rare opportunities. That he outplays his ADP or that he plays at least one round below his ADP? Perhaps you and I have different goals with our #1 pick. Mine is to pick a guy who's as close to a lock as I can find to finish among the top 10 at his position (if it's a RB), top 5 (if it's a WR), and well, I don't take QBs round 1. I'm not trying to guess who's got the best chance to be #1 overall. I'm looking for a guy to build my team around. To put one spot in my starting line-up to bed and move on. That's why I want nothing to do with SJax. Of the guys not named LT or perhaps AP, he's certainly among the guys who's got the best shot at finishing as the #1 overall. I suppose. Again, because the #1 overall is almost never a guy who succeeds despite being in a shaky offense and I'm not seeing a ton of reasons why St. Louis won't be that even if S Jax shows up tomorrow. None the less, he's the only other guy who's at least put up borderline #1 FF back numbers. However, he also has, by far, the biggest chance at being a total bust of anyone there because he's the only one who is currently not in camp. That's what knocks him down to at least #10 in my book. I'll work around a round 2 or 3 bust but it's not much fun to work around a 1st round bust. At least not a 1st round bust that was late enough in the round that he's more like a 1a/1b kind of deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I disagree when you are talking about the top 5 . If Jackson didnt hold out I would never have gotten him at 5. I see your point but I feel he is good value if he comes back in time and I was able to grab him where I otherwise would not have had a shot at him Right but he fell for a reason. You're not getting the same guy that was going at pick 3 in early July. In early July, you had a guy entering his contract year so he was likely playing for the big bucks. That's a huge deal and certainly enough to make him a damned attractive pick. Now you're getting a guy who's at a stand-off with his team about his contract which makes him worse not only because he's not in camp but that he will no longer be playing for a new contract when he signs. I mean, if LT got a somewhat major injury next week and was out for some mystery amount of time which could include week one, could be ready by week one, or could linger, you can be damned sure that he'd drop a spot or two. Would that make him a better value? No, his value is what the market will pay. Sure, the guy who took him at 2 or 3 could catch lightning in a bottle if it turns out he's OK. Then again, dude could be a shell of himself all year. That's why he became cheaper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 (edited) That he outplays his ADP or that he plays at least one round below his ADP? Perhaps you and I have different goals with our #1 pick. Mine is to pick a guy who's as close to a lock as I can find to finish among the top 10 at his position (if it's a RB), top 5 (if it's a WR), and well, I don't take QBs round 1. I'm not trying to guess who's got the best chance to be #1 overall. I'm looking for a guy to build my team around. To put one spot in my starting line-up to bed and move on. That's why I want nothing to do with SJax. Of the guys not named LT or perhaps AP, he's certainly among the guys who's got the best shot at finishing as the #1 overall. I suppose. Again, because the #1 overall is almost never a guy who succeeds despite being in a shaky offense and I'm not seeing a ton of reasons why St. Louis won't be that even if S Jax shows up tomorrow. None the less, he's the only other guy who's at least put up borderline #1 FF back numbers. However, he also has, by far, the biggest chance at being a total bust of anyone there because he's the only one who is currently not in camp. That's what knocks him down to at least #10 in my book. I'll work around a round 2 or 3 bust but it's not much fun to work around a 1st round bust. At least not a 1st round bust that was late enough in the round that he's more like a 1a/1b kind of deal. It's hard to argue with using the safe strategy. I look at it this way: I play in leagues of 12 to 16 teams, and in none of those leagues are any of the owners noobies or stupid. That means even with my best homework and a bit of luck, my best odds of winning the league are maybe 1 in 8 at the start of the season. I don't play in leagues just to finish 7-5 and make the playoffs, I play in leagues to try to win them. That means taking some risks that may also land me outside the playoff picture when the smoke clears. If I can get a guy who has as good of a shot of landing in the top 3 RBs in the league in FF ppg after the season is over with a pick of 1.05 or lower, that gives me an edge up on the rest of the league, because I can compete with the LT owner on an even basis & beat him to better players over the course of the rest of the draft. If SJax ends up holding out for more than a game or two, I'm going to have to scramble to pick up the slack, which gives me a large uphill battle, but that can be done also (re: Ryan Grant last year). That's the risk, but to negate the LT advantage (and Westbrook advantage in ppr leagues), that's a risk well worth taking IMO. Better than playing it safe and being mediocre, from my perspective. Edited August 19, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 It's hard to argue with using the safe strategy. I look at it this way: I play in leagues of 12 to 16 teams, and in none of those leagues are any of the owners noobies or stupid. That means even with my best homework and a bit of luck, my best odds of winning the league are maybe 1 in 8 at the start of the season. I don't play in leagues just to finish 7-5 and make the playoffs, I play in leagues to try to win them. That means taking some risks that may also land me outside the playoff picture when the smoke clears. If I can get a guy who has as good of a shot of landing in the top 3 RBs in the league in FF ppg after the season is over with a pick of 1.05 or lower, that gives me an edge up on the rest of the league, because I can compete with the LT owner on an even basis & beat him to better players over the course of the rest of the draft. If SJax ends up holding out for more than a game or two, I'm going to have to scramble to pick up the slack, which gives me a large uphill battle, but that can be done also (re: Ryan Grant last year). That's the risk, but to negate the LT advantage (and Westbrook advantage in ppr leagues), that's a risk well worth taking IMO. Better than playing it safe and being mediocre, from my perspective. Find arguments to be sure. Truth be told, I've made my living in FF by drafting better in the later rounds than most of my league mates which means I don't need to hit a home run with my #1. If I was in a deeper or experts league, I could see why I'd swing for the fences. Of course, I should remind you that "going 7-5 and making the playoffs" isn't a bad goal because it means that you're just a 3 game winning streak away from winning. Ask the NY Giants about that. That said, I suppose part of my concern is that I'm not completely sold on why S Jax was such a shoe-in RB stud even before the hold out. He's had one amazing year and St. Louis has no shortage of concerns on that team. I mean, Larry Johnson has seen the rare air of FF #1 overall and he's both healthy and in camp. Why isn't he a top 5 lock? So, this whole mess is just another complication that taints a player who may have already been among the more risky top end prospects to begin with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 Find arguments to be sure. Truth be told, I've made my living in FF by drafting better in the later rounds than most of my league mates which means I don't need to hit a home run with my #1. If I was in a deeper or experts league, I could see why I'd swing for the fences. Of course, I should remind you that "going 7-5 and making the playoffs" isn't a bad goal because it means that you're just a 3 game winning streak away from winning. Ask the NY Giants about that. That said, I suppose part of my concern is that I'm not completely sold on why S Jax was such a shoe-in RB stud even before the hold out. He's had one amazing year and St. Louis has no shortage of concerns on that team. I mean, Larry Johnson has seen the rare air of FF #1 overall and he's both healthy and in camp. Why isn't he a top 5 lock? So, this whole mess is just another complication that taints a player who may have already been among the more risky top end prospects to begin with. Good points on both counts. But I've got Steven Jackson about one blond c-hair behind LJ's performance 2 years ago. Jackson also hasn't been ridden into the ground the way LJ was 2 years ago. There's also the sharp decline in the KC O-line, going from arguably the most dominant run blocking line in the league to one of the poorest in just 2-3 years. Then we have the QB/passing game credibility issue. There are a lot of factors that point at Jackson being a potential stud whereas LJ has a much tougher road to get back to where he once was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 Right but he fell for a reason. You're not getting the same guy that was going at pick 3 in early July. In early July, you had a guy entering his contract year so he was likely playing for the big bucks. That's a huge deal and certainly enough to make him a damned attractive pick. Now you're getting a guy who's at a stand-off with his team about his contract which makes him worse not only because he's not in camp but that he will no longer be playing for a new contract when he signs. I mean, if LT got a somewhat major injury next week and was out for some mystery amount of time which could include week one, could be ready by week one, or could linger, you can be damned sure that he'd drop a spot or two. Would that make him a better value? No, his value is what the market will pay. Sure, the guy who took him at 2 or 3 could catch lightning in a bottle if it turns out he's OK. Then again, dude could be a shell of himself all year. That's why he became cheaper. All good points but I just think he became cheaper because people were afraid the hold out will last long and he may be partially or unavailable in the beginning of the season. I took a chance that it will get resolved and that I could get him at a spot where I normally wouldnt. I am a Cowboys fan. We take on troubled athletes when we can get them cheaper . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MORNINWOOD Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I have the the 7 pick tonight and praying someone takes him before I have to make the pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziachild007 Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 Great question....I remember being very happy when I learned that I had gotten the 4th pick in WCOFF....knew that meant I would be landing either Westy or SJax...now I just can't see myself taking SJax there at #4 too risky in an 11 week season anyway....might have to go Addai instead. KO'd LT, AP, and Westy went 1-3 in the Ladder draft with me at 1.4. I took Addai just because I felt it wasn't worth the risk on a top 4 pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 LT, AP, and Westy went 1-3 in the Ladder draft with me at 1.4. I took Addai just because I felt it wasn't worth the risk on a top 4 pick. suzuki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 My work league (least priority league I'm in) - I reluctantly took SJax in round 2. In fact, if it would have been my big money league instead of a work league, I may have passed on him. I know that many RBs that hold out get hurt once they return - does anyone know of a holdout that didn't get hurt and in fact performed as a top 10? I just don't see good things for SJax this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tboogs Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 I have the the 7 pick tonight and praying someone takes him before I have to make the pick. Where did he go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 Who feels silly for passing on him now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
splotchman Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Who feels silly for passing on him now? Not me b/c my draft is on Sunday..either will likely get SJax or Addai now with this news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Who feels silly for passing on him now? Tell you what. Why don't you go ahead and save that post for mid-season if or when he rewards those who used high picks on him. And listen, I'm not saying the guy is going to bust. Rather that there's enough of a track record of hold-out RBs not putting up monster numbers that he should have rightfully been falling several spots in drafts. I still drop him behind Westbrook and Addai based soley on the fact that they're all top notch backs and the other two haven't missed a month of camp. Even those of us who were prepared to let him fall out of the top 10 weren't certain that he was going to be a bust. Hell, what kind of idiot uses even a top 15 pick on a guy they're sure is going to be bust? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Tell you what. Why don't you go ahead and save that post for mid-season if or when he rewards those who used high picks on him. And listen, I'm not saying the guy is going to bust. Rather that there's enough of a track record of hold-out RBs not putting up monster numbers that he should have rightfully been falling several spots in drafts. I still drop him behind Westbrook and Addai based soley on the fact that they're all top notch backs and the other two haven't missed a month of camp. Even those of us who were prepared to let him fall out of the top 10 weren't certain that he was going to be a bust. Hell, what kind of idiot uses even a top 15 pick on a guy they're sure is going to be bust? Addai didn't show me that he was a top notch back last year except for in a few spots....I was higher on Addai last year than I am this year and have him around Gore... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 (edited) My work league (least priority league I'm in) - I reluctantly took SJax in round 2. In fact, if it would have been my big money league instead of a work league, I may have passed on him. Seriously. You ought to consider another hobby. To even remotely consider passing on Jackson in the second round in anything other than a league with extremely esoteric scoring or two teams is foolhardy no matter how you cut it. Edited August 21, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Seriously. You ought to consider another hobby. To even remotely consider passing on Jackson in the second round in anything other than a league with extremely esoteric scoring or two teams is foolhardy no matter how you cut it. Nah, my strategy in the first two rounds is to eliminate risk. With a player holding out, especially when the track record for such players is that after the holdout injury seems to occur more often than not - I am not too fond on taking that player. In round 2, I would rather grab a stud WR like Fitz over a holdout RB with a below average line and bad coach - plus I said 'may have considered' - it would have been a tough choice. How dare you suggest another hobby when I am so good at this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Nah, my strategy in the first two rounds is to eliminate risk. Good luck with that one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Good luck with that one... I think he means narrow it down....and this is usually the strategy I've used in the past on draft day as well... I try to not get players coming off a serious injury, or are potentially washed up, in a bad situation or just coming off a fluke year... the key players I normally target (usually at RB) are the younger players....someone who is approaching his prime... but early on, I'd hate drafting someone like Portis or McGahee... even if Mcgahee was healthy, I'd still hate drafting him...Westbrook is also someone who scares me because he's such a high pick and I fear his time is short right now as an elite back in the NFL... ..and AD because he's never finished a season healthy, but if he's more like Westbrook with the fact that he usually plays about 15 games then sign me up.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Seriously. You ought to consider another hobby. To even remotely consider passing on Jackson in the second round in anything other than a league with extremely esoteric scoring or two teams is foolhardy no matter how you cut it. I've been one of the SJax nay-sayers for a couple of seasons, but I can't disagree with this one bit. My problem with him is how high he is ranked versus the risk he represents. I am not against his talent or ability. I am against his ability to play a full schedule and his situation behind that line. It drops him down for me form 3ish (most people) to like 7ish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dutch Oven Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Tell you what. Why don't you go ahead and save that post for mid-season if or when he rewards those who used high picks on him. And listen, I'm not saying the guy is going to bust. Rather that there's enough of a track record of hold-out RBs not putting up monster numbers that he should have rightfully been falling several spots in drafts. I still drop him behind Westbrook and Addai based soley on the fact that they're all top notch backs and the other two haven't missed a month of camp. Even those of us who were prepared to let him fall out of the top 10 weren't certain that he was going to be a bust. Hell, what kind of idiot uses even a top 15 pick on a guy they're sure is going to be bust? IMO, SJax, Westy and Addai all have risk. Everyone is always scared that Westy will go down with a knee injury and he almost certainly won't play every game if history holds true. Addai has shown himself to be a bit injury prone as well and will lose snaps to Rhodes. Plus, Westy and Addai play in conferences where all the defenses are very solid so I think you need to take that into account. Everyone is scared of SJax because of the hold out and perhaps the injury last year, but he will get the lion's share of the snaps on the Rams. The Rams play in the NFC West. Maybe the Rams suck, but so does the NFC West. SJAX is going to get his TDs regardless. After LT and AD, these are the next three IMO, but I think it's a crap shoot where you put them in order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 IMO, SJax, Westy and Addai all have risk. Everyone is always scared that Westy will go down with a knee injury and he almost certainly won't play every game if history holds true. Addai has shown himself to be a bit injury prone as well and will lose snaps to Rhodes. Plus, Westy and Addai play in conferences where all the defenses are very solid so I think you need to take that into account. Everyone is scared of SJax because of the hold out and perhaps the injury last year, but he will get the lion's share of the snaps on the Rams. The Rams play in the NFC West. Maybe the Rams suck, but so does the NFC West. SJAX is going to get his TDs regardless. After LT and AD, these are the next three IMO, but I think it's a crap shoot where you put them in order. pretty much.....I see Addai, SJax and Westy in a Tier 2 after LT and AD, but a slight tier down only because I think these 2 players are elite... picks 2-5 are even riskier and then you have 6-10 which are risky as well (usually Gore, Portis, Grant, Lynch, Barber) and so on.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Nah, my strategy in the first two rounds is to eliminate risk. With a player holding out, especially when the track record for such players is that after the holdout injury seems to occur more often than not - I am not too fond on taking that player. In round 2, I would rather grab a stud WR like Fitz over a holdout RB with a below average line and bad coach - plus I said 'may have considered' - it would have been a tough choice. How dare you suggest another hobby when I am so good at this one But you're a Bears fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 I have the the 7 pick tonight and praying someone takes him before I have to make the pick. . . . and people wonder why I stump for auctions? What a ridiculous situation. Who wants to play FF this way? Peace policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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