Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Who wants to play FF this way? Apparently a whole lot of people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Nah, my strategy in the first two rounds is to eliminate risk. Mine too Good luck with that one... Gee, earlier in this very thread, you agreed that loading up on safe bets in the 1st rounds was a sound strategy even if not one that you can always use. Now it appears to be a practice of the foolhardy that should find something else to do. IMO, SJax, Westy and Addai all have risk. Everyone is always scared that Westy will go down with a knee injury and he almost certainly won't play every game if history holds true. Addai has shown himself to be a bit injury prone as well and will lose snaps to Rhodes. Plus, Westy and Addai play in conferences where all the defenses are very solid so I think you need to take that into account. Everyone is scared of SJax because of the hold out and perhaps the injury last year, but he will get the lion's share of the snaps on the Rams. The Rams play in the NFC West. Maybe the Rams suck, but so does the NFC West. SJAX is going to get his TDs regardless. After LT and AD, these are the next three IMO, but I think it's a crap shoot where you put them in order. I have no argument with somebody ranking SJax. Westbrook, and Addai in any order. My point was that it seems a bit over the top to exclaim that SJax "fell" to pick 5 due to his hold out. I had SJax at 3 when I made my very first rankings. Prior to the news of his holdout. However, it wasn't such a lock pick that I wasn't going to knock him. I would have certainly taken him in the 2nd without hesitation and, though I was talking 10, I would have been damned hard pressed to pass on him at 8, where I am drafting in my Saturday draft. Now, of course, it's an absolute no-brainer but he's certain not to last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 (edited) Gee, earlier in this very thread, you agreed that loading up on safe bets in the 1st rounds was a sound strategy even if not one that you can always use. Now it appears to be a practice of the foolhardy that should find something else to do. He said "eliminate" risk. That can't be done. All one can do is measure risk against reward and determine how far they are willing to extend that ratio. Hell, LT is coming is 29 years old and has a ton of mileage on his chassis - and he's considered the safest pick in the draft. But to consider Jackson such a risk that one would ignore his potential for production to the point where even thinking about not drafting him in the second round - much less passing on him beyond 1.07 give or take a pick at most - is quite frankly lying at a very irrational and unreasonable point in the risk/reward ratio. Edited August 21, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 (edited) I would take just about anyone if they fell far enough. I don't like Julius Jones, Maroney or MJD, but if they were available late enough I'd take them. It's all about value. Edited August 21, 2008 by Randall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Henderson Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Didnt Sjax score like ALL of st louis' rushing TDs the last year or two? That being said, I dont know if I would take him with the #3 spot or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Henderson Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 (edited) lol, my sig is last years team... Gotta love LJ in the first round! And Brady in the 6th!! Edited August 21, 2008 by Matt Henderson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 He said "eliminate" risk. That can't be done. All one can do is measure risk against reward and determine how far they are willing to extend that ratio. Hell, LT is coming is 29 years old and has a ton of mileage on his chassis - and he's considered the safest pick in the draft. But to consider Jackson such a risk that one would ignore his potential for production to the point where even thinking about not drafting him in the second round - much less passing on him beyond 1.07 give or take a pick at most - is quite frankly lying at a very irrational and unreasonable point in the risk/reward ratio. You can't be serious - anyone would know that what I was saying is to 'eliminate as much risk as I can'. I know you don't really take every word/sentence THAT literal. Plus, aren't you the one who has admitted that you aren't very good at FF? For all the knowledge you spout ( you appear to be pretty knowledgable and I like your input here), maybe your opinions shouldn't be so strong for someone who is admittedly bad at this hobby? Just a thought. Proceed with bashing a hobby that I am admittedly brentastic at! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Plus, aren't you the one who has admitted that you aren't very good at FF? That's true. But even I wouldn't think of passing on Jackson in the 2nd round (unless it was a 2 team league...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 That's true. But even I wouldn't think of passing on Jackson in the 2nd round (unless it was a 2 team league...) The 'even I' statement above could be a reason why you are not good - flawed logic. I look at FF like I look at investing - mimimizing risk is essential while also looking for high upside. If you're not doing this, then you aren't winning championships. Again, I didn't say I would definitely pass on him in round 2. But I would have to think long and hard. Of course now this is all a muto point since SJax is in fact reporting to camp. Enough beating this dead horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 I look at FF like I look at investing - mimimizing risk is essential while also looking for high upside. Well, I sure appreciate your sharing of your expertise. I'd sure like to see your list of players who have minimal risk with high upside. TIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Well, I sure appreciate your sharing of your expertise. I'd sure like to see your list of players who have minimal risk with high upside. TIA Which position(s)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Which position(s)? Well, let's start with RB since that's the point of interest here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Well, let's start with RB since that's the point of interest here Ok, here are guys I like a lot especially when factoring in their adp (in some instances, obviously not for L.T. etc...). Average draft position plays a hugh part in the minimal risk/high reward because many of the guys listed below have a good chance at top 10 but will be drafted after round 3. Also, I go with youth over experience in most cases, trying to get guys on the rise rather than guys (like Westy) that have done it for several years. 1st rounders: L.T. (slight risk, mostly age but he's the exception) ADP (only risk is soph slump - best OLine in the league though) Addai (Possibly the SAFEST pick in the draft IMO as long as Manning is healthy) Gore (late 1st early 2nd for a guy that is the only offensive weapon. A proven stud with an offensive genius at OC. In PPR this guy has tons of upside) Possible round 3 or later Maroney (Love him this year. Pats will pass less and my hunch is that BB will run more to combat all the DEFs trying to stop the air show. Maroney will be a top 10 with good chance to be top 5) DeAngelo Williams (love him as well, especially considering you can get him in round 7 or so. Stewart and his toe means this is hugh value pick) Reggie Bush (another high upside guy in PPR you can get late because he scared people off last year. In his 3rd year and hopefully 'getting it'. Some risk for sure but his adp makes it worth it. There are enough weapons that DEFs won't key on him). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 (edited) 1st rounders: L.T.(slight risk, mostly age but he's the exception)[/b] The #1 pick in the draft? You used the term "high upside". How much upside do you see him having beyond 1.01? ADP (only risk is soph slump - best OLine in the league though) The #2 pick in the draft? You used the term "high upside". How much upside do you see him having beyond 1.02? The only way he has upside is if he outperforms every RB in the NFL, and that's marginal at best. Addai (Possibly the SAFEST pick in the draft IMO as long as Manning is healthy) Has not cracked the top 10 in yards from scrimmage in his 2 years, despite being the #1 RB in IND both years. Dungy has him sharing carries and now he has both Rhodes AND Hart to deal with. Rhodes ate into his workload significantly 2 years ago, and Hart has shown so far that he can play at the NFL level, running with determination and power. How is this pick the SAFEST pick? Gore (late 1st early 2nd for a guy that is the only offensive weapon. A proven stud with an offensive genius at OC. In PPR this guy has tons of upside) Martz ignored one of the best RBs in NFL history at times when he had Marshall Faulk as his RB. What makes you think he won't do that to Gore? Plus you have the injury factor with Gore. Edited August 21, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Possible round 3 or later Maroney (Love him this year. Pats will pass less and my hunch is that BB will run more to combat all the DEFs trying to stop the air show. Maroney will be a top 10 with good chance to be top 5) Belichek has shown that he clearly does not trust Maroney to carry the whole load. Morris & Faulk steal work from him. Now he has Jordan to deal with also - and we've seen Jordan put up good numbers with an incredibly crappy O in OAK. I'm don't see safety or upside here. DeAngelo Williams (love him as well, especially considering you can get him in round 7 or so. Stewart and his toe means this is hugh value pick) Stewart is currently getting work with the #1 O in CAR. I agree that he represents value in the 7th round, but safe? Given the way Fox has treated him in the past? With guys like Foster as competition? Hardly safe at all. Reggie Bush (another high upside guy in PPR you can get late because he scared people off last year. In his 3rd year and hopefully 'getting it'. Some risk for sure but his adp makes it worth it. There are enough weapons that DEFs won't key on him). Well, I guess this is what I get for playing in leagues where guys are as bad at FF as I am. He isn't slipping past the middle of the second round in any ppr league I've drafted in despite his incredibly poor ypc and ypr numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 It's just so rarely that I get to play this graemlin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 1st rounders: The #1 pick in the draft? You used the term "high upside". How much upside do you see him having beyond 1.01? The #2 pick in the draft? You used the term "high upside". How much upside do you see him having beyond 1.02? The only way he has upside is if he outperforms every RB in the NFL, and that's marginal at best. Has not cracked the top 10 in yards from scrimmage in his 2 years, despite being the #1 RB in IND both years. Dungy has him sharing carries and now he has both Rhodes AND Hart to deal with. Rhodes ate into his workload significantly 2 years ago, and Hart has shown so far that he can play at the NFL level, running with determination and power. How is this pick the SAFEST pick? Martz ignored one of the best RBs in NFL history at trimes when he had Marshall Faulk as his RB. What makes you think he won't do that to Gore? Plus you have the injury factor with Gore. This is turning into a pissing contest that I want no part of. I was giving you the RBs I like with LOW RISK and HIGH UPSIDE. I gave you some first round picks because I was trying to relay that basically I hate Westy, Sjax, Portis, and other top 5ish picks this year in relation to their ADP. You are nit picking right now for no reason. Addai will not be sharing carries with anyone - are you kidding me?!?!? Addai plays on the best offense in the league with a QB that will take what is given him. He will have as much or more goaline opportunities than any other RB in the league - hence safest pick. Faulk under Martz started the trend that is now the norm with guys like Westy, L.T. etc... Faulk was fantasy gold under Martz - so I don't know where you're coming from doubting Faulk's fantasy production under Martz. At times - every player gets shunned 'at times'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 This is turning into a pissing contest that I want no part of. I'll bet you don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Addai will not be sharing carries with anyone - are you kidding me?!?!? Addai plays on the best offense in the league with a QB that will take what is given him. He will have as much or more goaline opportunities than any other RB in the league - hence safest pick. I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you here. Addai has shared carries since he arrived in Indy. He shared in college, too, for that matter IIRC. He's shared with both Rhodes and Keith before and IMO there is no reason to believe he wont be sharing again this year. Not disagreeing with you on him being a solid pick worthy of the top 5, but to suggest he wont be sharing any carries at all is silly IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted August 22, 2008 Share Posted August 22, 2008 I had a draft last night and he went #9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 22, 2008 Share Posted August 22, 2008 I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you here. Addai has shared carries since he arrived in Indy. He shared in college, too, for that matter IIRC. He's shared with both Rhodes and Keith before and IMO there is no reason to believe he wont be sharing again this year. Not disagreeing with you on him being a solid pick worthy of the top 5, but to suggest he wont be sharing any carries at all is silly IMO. Everyone shares some carries, come on now - I don't think there's any RB in the league that gets all of his teams carries. But if you truly think any of his backups will steal enough carries to dispute my opinion, then why do you think he's a top 5? Addai only shared carries (significant carries his rookie year - last year he was THE GUY. Why in the world would that change this season? Some people argue just to argue, bring something valid to the argument if you're going to do so. Anyone who thinks Addai will all of a sudden lose a bunch of carries to his backups is on some serious crack! BroncoBilly - Like I said earlier, I try to minimize risk in the first couple of rounds (hence my dislike for Westy, Portis, Sjax etc... per their ADP). In subsequent rounds I look for guys that have a good chance of breaking the top 10 based on the specific player's skill level and players who will out-perform their ADP - these are the rounds I take some calculated risks. Your phrasing is just enough to skew the facts in this argument - for instance you said 'Stewart is currently getting work with the #1 O in CAR'. This is what I call mis-information. Yes, he is 'getting work', like many backups do with the first team but NOTHING so far has indicated that Stewart will get any significant carries in CAR yet. Whether you or anyone else wants to admit it or not, his big toe is bothering him and I don't see that changing overnight, it appears this is a mental thing for him. So until he shows it on the field, I got my money on DeAngelo - and if Dwill puts up numbers early, it will take an injury to remove him. AND getting a starting RB in the 7th round that is capable of hitting a HR with each touch is a calculated risk very much worth taking. I will let the other guys take their chance on an un-proven rookie that has yet to practice at full speed. IF DWill does not pan out like I anticipate, I only wasted a 7th rounder, no harm done. Your assesment of Maroney is your opinion and we will have to agree to disagree. No way that an aged Lamont Jordan steals significant carries from a young talented RB like Maroney and same with Morris - both guys are insurance policies only (IMO). Last year Maroney dealt with injuries which is why the rushing TDs were spread out. However, I belive BB is smart enough to realize that he should use Maroney while he is young and in his prime. RBs have about 5 years of production (give or take) in them and Maroney is just hitting his stride. Plus it makes every bit of sense to me that BB will run much more this year because he knows that every opponent spent the off season trying to combat the NE passing game. I believe that last year's passing numbers were also a result of Maroney coming off a shoulder injury the previous year - so BB decided to ease him into the season. After witnessing much success in the passing game, why would he ruin a good thing at that point? It boggles my mind how you, being an admitted perenial fantasy loser, can be so adamant on your views when you admitedly don't have the history to back it up. Maybe if you opened your eyes to the fact that other people might have something to offer you, your losing efforts could take a 180. I like your input here and I think you are a knowledgable football fan but you telling me that I should just give up was just laughable - and all because I said I 'may' have passed on SJax in round 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 22, 2008 Share Posted August 22, 2008 Tell you what. Why don't you go ahead and save that post for mid-season if or when he rewards those who used high picks on him. And listen, I'm not saying the guy is going to bust. Rather that there's enough of a track record of hold-out RBs not putting up monster numbers that he should have rightfully been falling several spots in drafts. I still drop him behind Westbrook and Addai based soley on the fact that they're all top notch backs and the other two haven't missed a month of camp. Even those of us who were prepared to let him fall out of the top 10 weren't certain that he was going to be a bust. Hell, what kind of idiot uses even a top 15 pick on a guy they're sure is going to be bust? It was more in reference to guys talking about passing on him at 7, 8, 9 etc and even in the 2nd round. Sure he probably has the increased chance of getting hurt as you pointed out but that doesn't stop people from taking Westbrook between 3 and 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChampSampson Posted August 22, 2008 Share Posted August 22, 2008 :popcorn: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 22, 2008 Share Posted August 22, 2008 but you telling me that I should just give up was just laughable - and all because I said I 'may' have passed on SJax in round 2 I think you're providing ample evidence that my assessment was accurate. But I'll tell you what, I'll give you a chance to put up or shut up. How about we have sigline bet that Steven Jackson outperforms Lawrence Maroney in FF performance this coming season. Simple .1/6/1 scoring. That will give you a chance to back up what you're spewing. Do you have enough sack to stand behind your prognostications? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted August 22, 2008 Share Posted August 22, 2008 If someone hasn't informed you: sigline bets are foolish, borderline retarded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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