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Most INSANE pick you've seen this year?


muck
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Um - yes it is and here's why.

 

Take your scoring system and apply it to last year's Defenses. Now, what is the points per game average between the #1 D and the #12 D (assuming this is a 12 team)?

 

Do the same with QBs, RBs and WRs. You'll see the difference in the 1&12 D is probably very small compared to the same ranked players at other positions.

 

Do you want the #1 D or the #8 RB? You pass on the RB at 8, and you're looking at RB#14 (assuming a serpentine) whi is no doubt WELL below the per game average of even the #6 RB. Meanwhile, you can pass on D's all draft long and grab one in the 7th or 8th and suffer a 3-4 point loss per game compared to the guy who took Minny at 1.08. Meanwhile, his position players blow and he has to get lucky with a sleeper or reach to be relevant.

Not only that but there is no position where last year's fantasy production is a worse indicator of this year's fantasy production. Check it out. Look back at both top 3 ADP Ds and how they finish up that year or top 3 FF Ds and how they finish the following. It is staggering how badly they fare. You seriously might as well just pick names from a hat. I'd even go so far as to say it's worse than kickers.

 

So, you could get 10 pts for a sack and 30 points for a turnover and it still doesn't make sense to take one early.

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Not a totla trainwreck pick though - a la Duckett in the 3rd round.

 

If you believe he's the #1 QB this year - and there is good reason to think that - then this isn't outlandish. Just kinda silly.

 

I know this ought to start a ####storm, but the Romo at 1.03 pick is actually worse than the Duckett in the third round pick, and it's not even close. Romo's value puts him in the middle of the 4th round. By using a 1st rounder on him, an owner actually surrenders a lot more value to his team than drafting Duckett in the 3rd round and then not having Duckett even make an NFL roster. It's a classic example of not being able to win a league in the 1st round, but being able to lose it there.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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BB makes an excellent point. The talent left on the board at 1.03 is the elite stud talents of the NFL. While there is still a ton of talent 35+ picks in, the drop off certainly isn't as huge 10-15 picks laterat 45+. I'm surprised at how many "experts" are going away from the stud RB theory in the 1st rd.

Edited by Big Ernie McCracken
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BB makes an excellent point. The talent left on the board at 1.03 is the elite stud talents of the NFL. While there is still a ton of talent 35+ picks in, the drop off certainly isn't as huge 10-15 picks laterat 45+. I'm surprised at how many "experts" are going away from the stud RB theory in the 1st rd.

 

PPR = reduced reliance on stud RB theory

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I know this ought to start a ####storm, but the Romo at 1.03 pick is actually worse than the Duckett in the third round pick, and it's not even close. Romo's value puts him in the middle of the 4th round. By using a 1st rounder on him, an owner actually surrenders a lot more value to his team than drafting Duckett in the 3rd round and then not having Duckett even make an NFL roster. It's a classic example of not being able to win a league in the 1st round, but being able to lose it there.

 

Hmm. I think it's less of a gamble if you REALLY believe that Romo is going to put up Brady numbers this year, or Peyton #'s from the year before where their #1 rank stifles the #2 rank - Warner in 99+01 comes to mind as well.

 

I guess it's to each his own, but if I had to inheirit a team I'd rather it be the one that took Romo at 1.3, then followed up with a couple of nice backs than some guy who took Addai, a top flight WR then Duckett. But that's just me.

 

FWIW - I don't belive Romo will do that at all, but some think he will be #1.

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Hmm. I think it's less of a gamble if you REALLY believe that Romo is going to put up Brady numbers this year, or Peyton #'s from the year before where their #1 rank stifles the #2 rank - Warner in 99+01 comes to mind as well.

 

I guess it's to each his own, but if I had to inheirit a team I'd rather it be the one that took Romo at 1.3, then followed up with a couple of nice backs than some guy who took Addai, a top flight WR then Duckett. But that's just me.

 

FWIW - I don't belive Romo will do that at all, but some think he will be #1.

I have to agree with Pope. Say you go Romo at 3. Based on MFL ADP you can still reach Larry Fitz, Andre Johnson, maybe Ryan Grant at the end of the second and come back with a J Lewis type at 3.03. Now, I'm not saying at all that this is a good thing especially considering that you could go elite RB at 3 and still quite possibly reach Romo at 2 or at least Brees and still get the same quality at 3 as you were in the first option. However, that's the debate. The debate is whether you'd rather have, elite RB plus some version of Fitz, Johnson, Grant, etc. and nothing for your 3rd pick. or Romo, Andre Johnson, and J Lewis.

 

Would you make that trade? Romo and J Lewis for Addai? That's essentially what's on the table.

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Would you make that trade? Romo and J Lewis for Addai? That's essentially what's on the table.

 

Yes, because I'll fill my starting QB slot with a player later in the draft, whereas you have 2 starting positions locked up with your two players. And you/ve provided a false dilemma, because J Lewis is going at the end of the 2nd round by his ADP. You ought to be using more reasonable comparisons if you are going to play this game:

 

In other words, Jay Cutler + Steven Jackson > Romo + Lawrence Maroney (unless we're a certain someone, of course... :wacko: ).

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Yes, because I'll fill my starting QB slot with a player later in the draft, whereas you have 2 starting positions locked up with your two players. And you/ve provided a false dilemma, because J Lewis is going at the end of the 2nd round by his ADP. You ought to be using more reasonable comparisons if you are going to play this game:

 

In other words, Jay Cutler + Steven Jackson > Romo + Lawrence Maroney (unless we're a certain someone, of course... :D ).

Actually, according to MFL, J Lewis is going 27th which is exactly pick 3.03 :wacko:

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Yes, because I'll fill my starting QB slot with a player later in the draft, whereas you have 2 starting positions locked up with your two players. And you/ve provided a false dilemma, because J Lewis is going at the end of the 2nd round by his ADP. You ought to be using more reasonable comparisons if you are going to play this game:

 

In other words, Jay Cutler + Steven Jackson > Romo + Lawrence Maroney (unless we're a certain someone, of course... :D ).

 

:wacko: Well sticking with ADP, Maroney clocks in at 4.03, and we're talking about the 2.10+3.03 here are we not? Ryan Grant, MJD, and yes Jamal Lewis.

 

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

 

In any event, the fact that we can parse it to this level shows it is indeed NOT a trainwreck pick the sorts of which are much better represented elsewhere in this thread.

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Well, now I think you're piling on: I'd rate Rivers (not Young) over the bolded guys and put him in the same category as Delhomme.

Same as category for potential FF points as Hasselbeck? :wacko: What has changed in San Diego to make Rivers do anything different than last year? He averaged ~17 pass attempts a game and still has a great defense and an RB. Why would he be asked to do anything more than continue to not lose games? I see more upside in a guy like Cutler, who threw the rock up a ton at the end of last year.

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:wacko: Well sticking with ADP, Maroney clocks in at 4.03, and we're talking about the 2.10+3.03 here are we not? Ryan Grant, MJD, and yes Jamal Lewis.

 

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

 

In any event, the fact that we can parse it to this level shows it is indeed NOT a trainwreck pick the sorts of which are much better represented elsewhere in this thread.

 

:D Well, based upon a consensus of ADP, Maroney goes at pick #34. If you want, substitute Reggie Bush for Maroney. It still works in favor of Jackson + Cutler - and by a goodly amount.

 

The 2.10 is being considered Fitzgerald, who is washing out as even on both sides of the drafts.

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:wacko: Well, based upon a consensus of ADP, Maroney goes at pick #34. If you want, substitute Reggie Bush for Maroney. It still works in favor of Jackson + Cutler - and by a goodly amount.

 

The 2.10 is being considered Fitzgerald, who is washing out as even on both sides of the drafts.

So, here's another way to look at it. Romo is going 16 on MFL drafts and is ranked 14 in the Huddle overall top 200. Now, FWIW, I'm not the guy who's taking him that high but somebody is and one of them happens to run a FF website that many of us pay for. So, let's call it 15th overall or pick 2.03. Actually, that works out sort of well as I recall that Duckett went 3.10 so that would be the same guy. So, the trade on the table would be, would you rather have the 3rd pick in the 2nd (assuming you would use it on Romo and yes, I understand that you wouldn't and neither would I but that's where he's slotted by plenty who know what they're talking about) and the 10th pick in the 3rd or the 3rd pick in the 1st and a player who you would likely waive at the first opportunity.

 

So that's it. Would you trade a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a 1st round pick? I understand that the deal is usually weighted towards the guy giving up the 1st round pick but it's typically more like a 1st and a 5th for a 2nd and 3rd or something like that, not 1st and nothing for a 2nd and a 3rd.

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10 team All Steeler fan IDP, PPR league with 1 Offensive and 1 Defensive keeper

 

So to be fair there were 10 offensive players off the board when the second overall pick in the draft came in:

 

Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh Steelers

 

OK so we're all steeler fans but I don't think anyone was even thinking Mendenhall until late round 3.

 

These guys were still on the board when Mendenhall got picked:

 

Portis, Gore, Randy, Grant, Manning, MB3 and Lynch. Same guy then picked Roethlisberger at pick #22.... naturally I was very happy to pick up Drew Brees 5 picks later

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So, here's another way to look at it. Romo is going 16 on MFL drafts and is ranked 14 in the Huddle overall top 200. Now, FWIW, I'm not the guy who's taking him that high but somebody is and one of them happens to run a FF website that many of us pay for. So, let's call it 15th overall or pick 2.03. Actually, that works out sort of well as I recall that Duckett went 3.10 so that would be the same guy. So, the trade on the table would be, would you rather have the 3rd pick in the 2nd (assuming you would use it on Romo and yes, I understand that you wouldn't and neither would I but that's where he's slotted by plenty who know what they're talking about) and the 10th pick in the 3rd or the 3rd pick in the 1st and a player who you would likely waive at the first opportunity.

 

So that's it. Would you trade a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a 1st round pick? I understand that the deal is usually weighted towards the guy giving up the 1st round pick but it's typically more like a 1st and a 5th for a 2nd and 3rd or something like that, not 1st and nothing for a 2nd and a 3rd.

 

Good argument, detlef. Not sure I agree based upon value, but you make some very good points.

 

:wacko:

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The best part was you took 3 hours 45m and had to be called to make a pick you could have made in the 5th. :wacko:

Trust me, I'll probably be kicking myself for having RB-starred eyes and overlooking Devin Thomas for years to come.

 

 

* - well, unless Boyd ends up the next Terrell Davis. Which at this point seems unlikely.

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So that's it. Would you trade a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a 1st round pick? I understand that the deal is usually weighted towards the guy giving up the 1st round pick but it's typically more like a 1st and a 5th for a 2nd and 3rd or something like that, not 1st and nothing for a 2nd and a 3rd.

 

So, the group is coming to the same opinion that Duckett in the 3rd round is quite possibly the worst pick in FF so far this year?

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