Ozymandias Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 I'm a newb participating in my first fantasy football league this year. The league is on yahoo, which of course has point projections for each individual player, for each individual game. My question is, how reliable are these projections? Should I, for example, try to squeeze every projected point out of my starting line-up? It doesn't seem to me like this would be a very reliable indicator...as obviously anything can happen in a game. These projections also seem to be underselling Reggie Wayne quite a bit, compared to other #1 WRs. It's weird. How do they even get these numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nibiyabi Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 The Yahoo projections seem to be off the top of someone's head. I'd ignore them or, at the very least, use them as an extremely rough guideline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balzac Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 Yahoo's projections are generally crap. They offer another viewpoint on who might be a better play any given week, but I certainly wouldn't rely on them for anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 I find that they really over emphasize matchups and splits (home/away, day/night). In addition, they really underestimate what rookies are capable of. And dont trust them at all for ranking IDPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdrudge Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 They are as accurate as every other guess out there. Sometimes they are over. Sometimes they are under. Sometimes they are pretty close. If they could accurately tell you what players were going to score, then that would take out all the fun of playing FF (although it would increase the fun of betting on a game). Following them makes as much sense as submitting your lineup based solely on the projected stats here. It will tell you that Tom Brady is a better play then Matt Leinart, but won't tell you with any certainty whether Peyton is better then Tom or vice versa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 I say let your opponents use those, then you can take the victory with the real scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pkillebr Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 They're nothing more than a rough estimate. Don't rely on them point for point. If you're projected 89 and your opponent is projected 92, don't make a change based on that to try and eke out the other three points. For example, I have a player that is projected five points for week one because he is projected 30 yards receiving and 0.3 TDs so it's giving 3 points for yards and approximately 1/3 of TD points (2). Obviously, he isn't going to actually get 1/3 of a TD. It seems to take the season projections and dividing it up per game depending on match ups. So they're even less reliable than the already suspect Yahoo season projections. Every week I take a look at the projected points and will take it into consideration but it is a very small part of my overall decision for who to start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balzac Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 While I'm not big on the yahoo projections, I gotta say that they're probably no worse than some of the ones that espn puts up each week. My favorite example of yahoo idiocy was recently corrected on the sites - they had Roddy White listed as a top 50 overall player, but only projected 40+ receptions and 600 yards. They recently dropped him down to top 85 but increased his out put to 60 receptions and 900 yards - nicely done, yahoo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 It is an average of what yahoo thinks they will score for the season. Then they either add a few points or subtract a few points due to the matchups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 I'm a newb participating in my first fantasy football league this year. The league is on yahoo, which of course has point projections for each individual player, for each individual game. My question is, how reliable are these projections? Should I, for example, try to squeeze every projected point out of my starting line-up? It doesn't seem to me like this would be a very reliable indicator...as obviously anything can happen in a game. These projections also seem to be underselling Reggie Wayne quite a bit, compared to other #1 WRs. It's weird. How do they even get these numbers? Every site about football is playing a guessing game. Bias and players' past performances and guessing play into everyone's rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 It is an average of what yahoo thinks they will score for the season. Then they either add a few points or subtract a few points due to the matchups. that almost makes sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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