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2008 Week 1 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Yes it's back for another (successful) year. I know many vets love this thread and we love to hear the info and picks that they share. For the new guys, this thread is pretty much dedicated to all things NFL and gambling. I usually start them for the week on Tuesday mornings, and we keep them going through MNF.

 

Everyone is free to post their plays, but moreso than just plays, I like to discuss strategy and analysis.

 

Just a quick background on the way I do things:

 

I have a database which gathers data and statistics and then calculates plays. I refer to it as my system, but really it is several systems. They each generate different types of plays. I have had incredible success w/ these the past few years. Last year I think it was most famous online for it's Overs picks, which went an incredible 21-1 which included the playoffs. No chance it does that well again, but hopefully it does well.

 

My system does not kick in until week 3 or week 4. It all depends. 2 years ago I started it in week 4. Last year in week 3.

 

So what do I do for the first few weeks? Well, the same thing as the entire season. I study, analyze, cap games on my own, and generate my personal plays.

 

Once the season kicks in, I roll in the system plays. When I focused entirely on personal plays to start the season, I started the season 11-1 on posted plays (including leans posted but not played 14-2). Once I was working more w/ the system, my personal plays dropped a bit, but I still finished 60% for the season on those plays.

 

Anyhow, this year is going to present a potential challenge for me, in that I am trying to devise a more simplistic method to distribute winning plays. As you know from the past, I presented all my system plays early in the week. Most often there were 10+ plays. Then I'd drop my personal plays later in the week. I'd have my money distributed on too many games (not for me, but for recommending). I feel this needs to be addressed, as I've been approached by a number of people over the summer requesting my plays. Most of these guys want a service feel, in that I send out about 3-6 plays each week and those are my plays. As you know, it's very difficult given the way I do things. So that's something I am going to try and work on perfecting. I know my mind + my system is very solid. (For anyone who cares, I'll post the system record the last 2 years in the next post.) I just have to figure out a way to select a subset of those plays for inclusion on a weekly basis.

 

Well, on to 2008 and on to week 1.

 

Feel free to drop your thoughts and analysis, any plays you've made and your logic, or what you are thinking on. I'll post my system record, and then be back later to drop some thoughts and analysis of my own.

 

My personal motto is to be up money at the end of every day, end of every week, and end of every season. Everyone would love to hit 60%+ each week. But sometimes you have to take 54 or 55% and move on. Other times, you are unlucky to be 50% or less and those are the times you have to realize that what we are doing here is an inexact science. You expect a few bad weeks, but hopefully you will do well in the other weeks to keep you enjoying a nice profit for the year.

 

Good luck to everyone this year, let's make some money and help each other out along the way!

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Here's my "resume" so to speak....

 

2007-2008 System:

 

Overs Sys #1: 21-1 (95%)

Overs Sys #2: 26-7 (79%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)

"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)

ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)

O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)

Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)

Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)

Wrong Team Favored: 16-17-2 (48%)

 

2006-2007 System:

 

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)

Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)

Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)

ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)

All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)

All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

 

2005-2006:

 

My system was in the "testing" phase so I don't have any results from this year. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%. So I was very proud, as I still am, to hold that distinction.

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Just a tidbit - I have not verified the info:

 

Super Bowl champions who won the bowl and scored 20pts or less in the win are 7-0 ATS in week 1 the following season.

 

Also, something else to throw in that I did dig up:

 

I like to research angles and bet a lot based on public perception as well as team motivational factors. I also believe in general "trends" when it comes to certain game situations.

 

The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

 

Some stats about the Monday night games for week 1.

 

Since 2002, the underdog has gone 5-2-1 ATS (though 0-1-1 last year) and the total has gone under in 6 of the 8 games.

 

Just a few things to think about.

 

Got a bunch more but short on time.

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I was already going to play the G-men on Thursday night but this info makes the play seem even better. Thanks Dre and welcome back!!!

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Congrats on the 89% in the Wagerline Playoff Competition - that’s a helluva win%!!!

 

Also, I just wanted to point out that this thread may be the most anticipated reading material of the week for me. Keep up the good work Dre, it’s much appreciated here!!!

 

Anyway, on to my picks and meager analysis for this week.

 

Already fired on:

I took the Cowboys at -5 early Monday morning. Shortly after I fired it went up to 5.5. I assume it will continue to go up. I just don’t think 5 is enough for the Browns to cover, even at home. So, I went the other way.

 

I also took the Falcons +3. I think the Falcons will surprise some people this year, and I believe they have a decent shot to beat the Lions straight up. But I’ll take the 3.

 

 

In my sights:

I like the Bucs +3.5 at the Saints. If I remember correctly, the Saints don’t fare to well when thay have to leave the dome for practice due to weather, and then come back home to play. It almost plays out like road game for them with all the travel. Still thinking about this one…

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I was already going to play the G-men on Thursday night but this info makes the play seem even better. Thanks Dre and welcome back!!!

 

Exactly, it just doesn't look like the skins have the zorn offense down pat. Isn't smart to put too much importance on the preseason but they just didnt look right.

 

.....but combine that with dre's numbers and we got ourselves a nice projection for thursday night.

Edited by Mojo Rising
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i have problems also, and not just fantasy football

 

if i'm playing anything tommorrow it will be 2 tm 7 pt tease, skins +11-+12 and o31/32 we'll see

last season i noticed the skins games o/u were always in the 30s and everytime they played to the 40's

 

but a lot of people are high on det o22 pts for game and i'm starting to like the o41 for the cards and 49ers game. warner and martz help that imo

 

last season i had a 9-1 on lock plays, never post the plays here but other places

 

there's a lot of o/u plays out there, gb min 38, hou/pitt 43

 

looking forward to your insight

Edited by hollywood_69
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Some interesting trends I dug up on the net concerning my picks:

 

Detroit is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992

Detroit is 4-12 ATS in road games over the last two seasons

 

 

Dallas is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons, and 12-4 since 1992

 

 

New Orleans is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last two seasons, and 10-22 since 1992

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Thanks Keggerz and Ratt. Good to see you guys again.

 

I've got a few plays up on my website and as I said earlier, my strategy this year is a work in progress. I really think I've got something when you combine the research, trends and most of all, systems that I have. And I want to help maximize that for everyone. I've kind of laid out how I am going to approach things over there. But over here, I'll still be posting everything I've got. Just please realize I am trying something new and my biggest fear is that by culling my system plays down from what they are to about 4-5 that I send out in e-mail, I hope the % hit of those 4-5 mirrors the % hit of my systems. If I can do that, I will feel very good. But if my system produced 15 winners and 5 losers for a given week, and I send out 2 winners and 3 losers, i will feel terrible about leading people astray. If that happens, I will refine how I'm doing it.

 

We've got a lot of smart guys here who know how much I love doing this and love helping people out, so if you have any suggestions for me, feel free to let me know.

 

As for this week:

 

Two plays that jumped on my radar early on: Carolina and Buffalo.

 

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

 

* Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.

* Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over -though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.

* With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

 

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

 

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.

* Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

 

More to come...

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I too like the Skins +3.5 tonight.

 

I look at the line, and from where I sit, it begs you to take the Giants. I think Vegas put it up with the hopes that the novice gambler would say "Geez, the Super Bowl Champion Giants -3.5? At home? Against a Washignton team that couldn't tie its shoes during the preseason?". For some reason, it appears they are trying desperately to get more money coming in on the home team. I smell a trap.

 

I like the Skins to run the ball a ton tonight against a rebuilt Giants DL and inexperienced linebacking corps, and to put Campbell in position to make plays and protect the ball. Look for some long, ball-control drives from the Skins, but some red-zone sluggishness, with drives finished with FGs.

 

The Giants offense, as always, will continue to be a work in progress. I never loved Jacobs the way a lot of people do...too upright, too prone to taking a devastating hit. I don't see them clicking yet again this season. They'll have some success, but not much against a defense that will come ready to play in a divisional game.

 

Giants 17, Skins 16.

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Just because its opening night and call me crazy but I'm taking WAS ML and Was +3.5 for 2 units.

Hey Bird Dog. Do you like the 'Skins tonight?

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Thanks guys.

 

Another bit I just dug up on the Skins/Giants rivalry.

 

Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years)

 

In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points

 

In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points

 

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

 

In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points

In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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Yes, I do. I just hope I didn't go overboard! :wacko:

 

Remember, it's a LOOOONG season. Money management is the key. Nothing is a sure bet. Sorry for all the cliches, but they are true. I had a system last season that was 12-0 through mid-November. I didn't start laying heavy on it until December. It finished 21-1, but the point is, no single game or weekend or season should be "must win" for you. You should be able to lose a whole season's bankroll and not go slit your wrists. It's called proper money management. That said, you'd really have to try hard to lose a whole season's bankroll if you did use proper money management. But, remember, the season has barely started. This is 1 game out of 512 for the regular season. No to mention playoffs. Take your time and regardless of who you like tonight, be sharp w/ your $$.

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Thanks guys.

 

Another bit I just dug up on the Skins/Giants rivalry.

 

Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years)

 

In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points

In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points

 

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

 

In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points

In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

 

Wow

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