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success of rookie WRs in the bigs


Chachi
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So, one of my rules is to stay away from WRs in their first two years. I've been burned buying into hype in the past, but . . . but . . . damn, why is there always a but?!?

 

Let me set the scene for you: It's late in the draft. I'm weak at WR, so I take a flyer on this kid in Denver that everybody is raving about, Eddie Royal. I mean, come on -- it was the 16th round! And then Monday night happens . . . he runs crisp routes. He's in motion all over the field. He's used on running plays and option passes. He blows up. I mean, he was the only guy on the field they needed to worry about, and they couldn't stop him.

 

But what's the likelihood of that happening again? Yes, Brandon Marshall is coming back this week, but is having someone to take the double teams away from you a bad thing? He caught 9 of 11 passes thrown to him, so the rapport with Cutler is there. And the maturity . . . finding first down markers, throwing the ball away rather than forcing his first ever pass attempt . . .

 

This got me thinking about rookie WRs, and I was surprised how recently there was a relevant rook. 2003, Anquan Boldin. 101 receptions for 1377 yards and 8 TDs. Not too shabby.

 

I'm not foolish enough to think Royal will put up those kind of numbers, but is 80/1000/7 unreasonable to expect? Thoughts?

 

Then there's this Jackson guy over in Philly . . .

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And Calvin was good last year - he just got dinged.

 

I think it's perfectly possible for Royal to have a great year. The key factor is maturity and hard work, and it sounds like this kid has it.

 

I am going to sit him against SD simply because it's a tougher scenario and I want to give this a little time to pan out with Marshall. But Cutler is solid, they've developed report, and it's a strong offense overall. I think he'll end up being a high end #3 WR.

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There are exceptions, and I did put waiver requests in for both Royal and then Jackson, but overall they are very, very risky to draft. Once they prove themselves, pick them up.

 

Every year there are rookie RB's who are FF worthy starters. Only every few years is a rooki e WR worthy of starting regularly.

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There are exceptions, and I did put waiver requests in for both Royal and then Jackson, but overall they are very, very risky to draft. Once they prove themselves, pick them up.

 

Every year there are rookie RB's who are FF worthy starters. Only every few years is a rooki e WR worthy of starting regularly.

too late...

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Both Jackson and Royal looked very good in their Week 1 games. I think the potential is there for them both to have good seasons(especially for rookies). That said, I think they both got more action due to the absence of a WR who is higher in the pecking order than they are and some of their success may be attributed to going against defenses that were not familiar with them.

 

Starting this week, Marshall will be back to resume his role as the primary target for Cutler. Brown and Curtis will be back eventually to add more options for McNabb and further dilute the production of any one WR in that system. Plus, they dont play the Rams anymore this year. So I guess what I am trying to say is I think we should temper our expectactions for both DJ and ER as they are almost surely coming back to earth this week and not likely to consistently light it up like they did in Week 1.

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I think they'll see a lot of press coverage moving forward. I think they will have some success, but owners need to realize that week one could have been their best games of the season...

 

Move them now.

 

 

Yeah but teams are going to double Marshall. Royal was the strongest WR at the combine bench pressing 225 24 times. He's like Steve Smith in that regard. Week 1 was probably his best game but 100 yard 1 TD games are definitely possible.

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Grabbed from another site.

 

Since 1995 only three rookie WRs reached 100+ yards receiving in their first game. Two of those occurred this past week as Eagles rookie DeSean Jackson and Broncos rookie Eddie Royal joined Anquan Boldin as the only rookie WRs to reach 100+ yards receiving in their first game as a pro. In the five years that Anquan Boldin has been in the league he has finished with one top five ranking, two top ten rankings and four top twenty rankings.

 

Rookie WRs with 100+ receiving yards in debut

 

2003 Anquan Boldin ARI, 217 yards, 2 TDs

2008 Eddie Royal DEN, 146 yards, 1 TD

2008 DeSean Jackson PHI, 106 yards

 

Rookie WRs with 90-99 receiving yards in debut

 

1998 Randy Moss MIN, 95 yards, 2 TDs

 

Rookie WRs with 80-89 receiving yards in debut

 

2002 Antwaan Randle El PIT, 87 yards

1996 Marvin Harrison IND, 85 yards, 1 TD

2002 Deion Branch NE, 83 yards, 1 TD

2001 JuJuan Dawson CLE, 83 yards, 1 TD

 

Rookie WRs with 80-89 receiving yards in debut

 

2000 Plaxico Burress PIT, 77 yards

2003 Andre Johnson HOU, 76 yards

2007 Calvin Johnson DET, 70 yards, 1 TD

2004 Larry Fitzgerald ARI, 70 yards

1996 Eddie Kennison STL 70 yards

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