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A deeper look at the numbers


keggerz
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OK so on the surface here is what Willie Parker did in week 1:

25 carries

138 Yards

3 TDs

5.52 YPC

 

Now lets look a little deeper at the numbers:

1st down carries: 15 (all were 1st & 10 with the exception of one 1st & 6 goal to go)

1st down yards: 75

1st down TDs: 0

actual 1st down carries: 0,3,2,2,1,2,3,1,12(1st carry of 3rd quarter),9,3,3,2,2,32)

 

 

2nd down carries: 9

2nd down yards 57

2nd down TDs: 3

actual 2nd down carries: 4, 7(TD), 1, 13(TD), 6, 1, 8, 4(TD), 13

 

3rd down carries: 1(3rd & 2)

3rd down yards: 4

 

So, 14 of his 25 carries went for 3 yards or less.

 

When you break it down and look deeper at the numbers for Parker in week one they dont look so good, imo.

 

 

:

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When you break it down and look deeper at the numbers for Parker in week one they dont look so good, imo.

 

Interesting, but....

 

I would think it would be very similar for any RB.

 

I doubt you'll see many 5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5 scenarios.

 

probabaly alot more 1,2,8,2,3,5,4,2,9,2,15,3,1,6,1,5 types of lines, which I bet are far more typical.

 

Can you do the same for all the 100 yard RBs from week 1?

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Interesting, but....

 

I would think it would be very similar for any RB.

 

I doubt you'll see many 5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5 scenarios.

 

probabaly alot more 1,2,8,2,3,5,4,2,9,2,15,3,1,6,1,5 types of lines, which I bet are far more typical.

 

Can you do the same for all the 100 yard RBs from week 1?

I unfortunately dont have the time to do it for all the 100yrd running backs...but i agree it would be up and down...BUT with that said

12 of parkers 15 1st down runs were very very bad, imo....just something to keep an eye on since they have mendy waiting in the wings

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Isn't that pretty much why some backs get the number of carries that they do? Guys that can take it to the house on any given play aren't asked to bang 3-yarders up the middle all day long. I mean, we don't call the other guy "Fast Brandon Jacobs".

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Can you do the same for all the 100 yard RBs from week 1?

OK I did Turner real quick:

 

22 carries

220 yards

10.0 YPC

 

1st down carries: 16, 6 for 3yrds or less(9,3,66TD,29, 5TD,7, 0, 10, 1, 4, 0, 16, 11, 15, 7TD, 0, 1)

 

2nd down carries:5 (3(1st down carry on 2nd & 1) 11, 4, 17, 6)

 

3rd down carries 1: 3rd & 1 carry for 2yds

 

while Turner had some bad carries it wasnt even close to what parker had

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1st down carries(since a 2 or 3 yard carry on say 3rd and 1 isnt really a bad carry)

 

"Fast Brandon Jacobs" 6 of 10 carries were 3 or less yards(60%)

Adrian Peterson 3 of 7 carries were 3 or less yards(43%)

Matt Forte 8 of 14 carries were 3 or less yards (57%)

Michael Turner 8 of 22 carries were 3 or less yards(36%)

Willie Parker 12 of 15 carries were 3 or less yards(80%)

Brian Westbrook 3 of 7 carries were 3 or less yards (43%)

Edited by keggerz
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You have to be satisfied when your starting runningback goes over a hundred and scores 3 TDs. Why analyze it? Enjoy it. :wacko:

Well for one it could be a reason for him to get fewer carries going forward and then you will be the guy standing there saying but he went over 100 with 3 scores in week 1

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Here's some more interesting stats about Willie Parker:

 

 

  • I owned him last year and was happy I drafted him.
  • He gave me 2 Rushing TD's last year.
  • In the 15 games he played that translates to .133 TD's per game, or .7 Fantasy points per game.
  • I did not pick him up this year.
  • He scored 3 TD's in his first game of 2008.
  • :D:wacko:

 

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did Barry ever have a highly drafted rookie waiting in the wings?

 

and I do remember reading/hearing that Sanders had more carries for a loss then any other RB in history

If you are looking at Willie's 130 and 3 hoping that the Steelers would think this was not suffecient production, you've probably got way too much invested in the success of Mendenhall. I don't think they are going to look at that production and think "there's our problem, we're playing Willie Parker too much".

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If you are looking at Willie's 130 and 3 hoping that the Steelers would think this was not suffecient production, you've probably got way too much invested in the success of Mendenhall. I don't think they are going to look at that production and think "there's our problem, we're playing Willie Parker too much".

I dont own Mendy in a single one of my leauges and I am in like 8 dynasty leagues...i also never said one way or the other how the steelers viewed his production....but i bet that they did look at everyone of his carries and i do feel safe in assuming that they couldnt be very happy with what he did on most of his 1st down runs

 

All I know is I am a Big Steelers fan and the coaching staff has stated he IS without a doubt their goal line back...here is to a big year!

that is good to know....

 

but still it is just a little deeper look at the numbers....and fwiw, i found this by accident when I was looking at the Houston run D and realized just how many times they held parker to 3yrds or fewer....if people dont think its worth noting or filing in the back of their head then hey thats fine....like I said I am a parker owner(1 league) and hope he has a hugh year but when I see 80% of his carries going for 3 yrds or less.

Edited by keggerz
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I'm pretty sure that the Steelers didn't spend their first-round pick on Mendenhall to sit him on the bench for the entire season. Parker will undoubtedly get his share of carries this season (definitely 200+), but I'm sure that Mendenhall will get more as the season progresses. That doesn't necessarily mean full-blown RBBC, but I'd be surprised if Mendenhall wasn't averaging 10-15 carries per game in December. Hell, he had a full 10 on Sunday.

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Keep in mind that while I have nothing to support this statement as fact I am willing to bet that the game plan of Houstons was to stop the run on first down as that is a Steeler trademark that almost never changes.

 

This past weekend 21 of 28 first down plays were for sure running plays. 5 were passing plays and two more could have been running plays as one was a Big Ben fumble at the snap and the other was a sack. The sack was likely a pass but I don't recall for sure. So that has sort of got to factor into things a little, IMHO.

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I dont own Mendy in a single one of my leauges and I am in like 8 dynasty leagues...i also never said one way or the other how the steelers viewed his production....but i bet that they did look at everyone of his carries and i do feel safe in assuming that they couldnt be very happy with what he did on most of his 1st down runs

 

 

that is good to know....

 

but still it is just a little deeper look at the numbers....and fwiw, i found this by accident when I was looking at the Houston run D and realized just how many times they held parker to 3yrds or fewer....if people dont think its worth noting or filing in the back of their head then hey thats fine....like I said I am a parker owner(1 league) and hope he has a hugh year but when I see 80% of his carries going for 3 yrds or less.

i read both this thread and the one in the IDP forum and they are extremely interesting, ( and i know you put some time in) :wacko:

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Keep in mind that while I have nothing to support this statement as fact I am willing to bet that the game plan of Houstons was to stop the run on first down as that is a Steeler trademark that almost never changes.

 

This past weekend 21 of 28 first down plays were for sure running plays. 5 were passing plays and two more could have been running plays as one was a Big Ben fumble at the snap and the other was a sack. The sack was likely a pass but I don't recall for sure. So that has sort of got to factor into things a little, IMHO.

i think that helps make Kegs point, Skip... -ALL the Steelers opponents will game-plan for 1st down runs

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and I do remember reading/hearing that Sanders had more carries for a loss then any other RB in history

 

Hence why I made the comment.... :wacko:

 

Sanders career was made of -3, 0, 2, 1, 3, 60, 1, -4, etc.. I'd consider him to be pretty impressive.

 

As far as Mendenhall, he looks a ways away from being a big part of that offense. As an Illinois alum/fan, I thought he was the most NFL ready back to come out. I was wrong. He thought his physical ability would stand out. To this point, it hasn't. Only his penchant for putting the ball on the ground -- which I didn't see a whole lot of in college.

Edited by cory_n_az
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i think that helps make Kegs point, Skip... -ALL the Steelers opponents will game-plan for 1st down runs

Maybe it does but to me that also makes the point that it is easier to stop the run when you very much expect the run to come. Having said that, it has always been this way with the Steelers so I am not worried about Parkers first down performance.

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