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Projections for the Rest of the Season


muck
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As I rolled it out last week, I have used a combination of (i) backwards looking strength of schedule, (ii) forward looking strength of schedule, (iii) historic margin of victory and (iv) the historic margin of victory of a teams' future opponents to calculate projected W/L % for each team.

 

Below is a projection for the playoff teams, the top few picks in next years draft, and projections for the winners and losers of week three:

 

Playoff teams:

12-4 DEN (third easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & fourth highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

12-4 NE

11-5 PIT

11-5 TEN (easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

10-6 BUF (fourth easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & second highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

9-7 BAL

 

12-4 ARI (third highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

11-5 NYG

11-5 CAR

11-5 CHI (second easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & fifth highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

11-5 DAL (fourth HARDEST forward-looking schedule in the NFL)

10-6 GB

 

Top Picks in the 2009 NFL Draft:

4-12 STL (second hardest forward looking schedule in the NFL & lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 SEA (third hardest forward looking schedule in the NFL & third lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 KC (fourth lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 DET (fifth lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 MIN

 

Week Three Winners (9-6 last week):

NE beats MIA

BUF beats OAK

NYJ beats SD

PIT beats PHI

BAL beats CLE

NYG beat CIN

TEN beats HOU

JAX beats IND

DEN beats NO

ATL beats KC

DAL beats GB

ARI beats WAS

CHI beats TB

SF beats DET

CAR beats MIN

SEA beats STL

Edited by muck
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MN has the the toughest schedule. We get Carolina next.

 

4-12, maybe we can draft a QB?

 

Where did you get that MIN has the hardest schedule from this point forward?

 

Per my calculations, they have the 9th hardest schedule going forward.

Edited by muck
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Where did you get that MIN has the hardest schedule from this point forward?

 

Per my calculations, they have the 9th hardest schedule going forward.

 

Your probably right - I wasn't looking forward. We actually were 4th at the start of the season. It would be interesting to see how your projections actaully turn out. Have you done this before?

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Your probably right - I wasn't looking forward. We actually were 4th at the start of the season. It would be interesting to see how your projections actaully turn out. Have you done this before?

 

Yes. Last year I ran a deal called "Race to the Bottom", primarily geared to figuring out which team was the worst. The things I picked up on in doing that (with the same methodology as this year, btw) is that there are a few teams who have a much easier road to go forward (last year was CLE and SEA) and therefore increase the probability that a good start will allow them to get to the playoffs (or at least much closer than they would have been otherwise), and others who, after a bad start, and a tough road to run going forward, have made the playoffs very improbable (last year, that was BAL).

 

This is the first year that I'm trying to predict the outcomes of games. I don't know how that will turn out. We'll see...

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Your week 3 winners list looks awful. There are several teams on there that won't win and you have them winning.

 

The same thing happened last week. I got six of the fifteen games wrong. I'm sure that I'll get some wrong this week to.

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Week Three Winners

NE beats MIA

BUF beats OAK

SD beats NYJ

PHI beats PIT

BAL beats CLE

NYG beat CIN

TEN beats HOU

IND beats JAX

DEN beats NO

ATL beats KC

GB beats DAL

ARI beats WAS

CHI beats TB

SF beats DET

CAR beats MIN

STL beats SEA

 

Fixed

Close to what I have but I think Dallas beats Green Bay, and Tampa Bay beats Chicago. Detroit also has a chance against San Fran

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No way Baltimore gets that last playoff spot over Jacksonville, NY Jets, Indy, or SD.

 

They're not as bad as everyone has been saying on here....but no way....

 

Maybe so, but BAL is undefeated, and those other teams are not. However, BAL does have the 11th hardest strength of schedule going forward, whereas JAX, NYJ, IND and SD are 25th, 23rd, 26th and 15th respectively...

 

Rest assured that things will change as the season goes on.

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To be clear, I am a Seahawks fan, but to believe Seattle will only go 4-12 is a little unrealistic. While they have a hard schedule and aren't playing very well right now (plus injuries) I think they are going to come off the bye week at a good pace. There are a handful of winnable games including Washington and New York, among others.

 

Arizona going 12-4? I mean they've played Miami and San Fransisco. They have the same schedule as the Seahawks, and I really don't think they are a good enough team to beat Green Bay, Dallas, New England, Philly, the Giants, or Carolina. I guess this is all in the math, but my gut says they'll be 4th seed in the NFC at the highest.

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Any system that you use that picks Arizona to have the best record in the NFC is a system that needs to be scrapped.

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As I rolled it out last week, I have used a combination of (i) backwards looking strength of schedule, (ii) forward looking strength of schedule, (iii) historic margin of victory and (iv) the historic margin of victory of a teams' future opponents to calculate projected W/L % for each team.

 

Below is a projection for the playoff teams, the top few picks in next years draft, and projections for the winners and losers of week three:

 

Playoff teams:

12-4 DEN (third easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & fourth highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

12-4 NE

11-5 PIT

11-5 TEN (easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

10-6 BUF (fourth easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & second highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

9-7 BAL

 

12-4 ARI (third highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

11-5 NYG

11-5 CAR

11-5 CHI (second easiest forward-looking schedule in the NFL & fifth highest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

11-5 DAL (fourth HARDEST forward-looking schedule in the NFL)

10-6 GB

 

Top Picks in the 2009 NFL Draft:

4-12 STL (second hardest forward looking schedule in the NFL & lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 SEA (third hardest forward looking schedule in the NFL & third lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 KC (fourth lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 DET (fifth lowest expected future margin of victory in the NFL)

4-12 MIN

 

Week Three Winners (9-6 last week):

NE beats MIA

BUF beats OAK

NYJ beats SD

PIT beats PHI

BAL beats CLE

NYG beat CIN

TEN beats HOU

JAX beats IND

DEN beats NO

ATL beats KC

DAL beats GB

ARI beats WAS

CHI beats TB

SF beats DET

CAR beats MIN

SEA beats STL

 

Well im hoping your Jets pick this week is right. Ill be at the game in San Diego. Im worried they are going to get blown out. Ill cling to this as my life-raft of hope.

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this made me chuckle.

Any system that you use that picks Arizona to have the best record in the NFC is a system that needs to be scrapped.

Muck - I know this is all math and some people don't understand that you are just plugging in numbers but I kind of dig it. Keep it going as I want to see how well the math holds up.

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Eagles went from winning the NCF East and being 11-5 after Week 1 to.....not even making the playoffs? All because if a 4-point road loss to the Cowboys?

 

Not sure what the system tells us, Muck....we'll have to see. At this point, it looks like pure speculation. As the season goes forward, I am sure the numbers will become more and more realistiic.

 

That being said, anyone can guess better as we get further along in the season. Not sure the numbers really bear anything out.

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Remember, the forward looking numbers consider:

 

W/L record of opponents already played against other teams

W/L record of future opponents

Points scored v. Points allowed in games already played

Future Opponents points scored v. Future opponents points allowed

 

...so...

 

If a team (like PHI) goes from 1-0 to 1-1, it's mathematically more difficult for them to get to (say) 11 wins than if they'd gone 2-0. Also, if, say, their future opponents had (on average) very strong weeks in week two and won a bunch and/or scored a ton more points than they allowed, PHIs future schedule would look tougher. Similarly, if the teams they had already played all lost, it would weaken their 'historic strength of schedule', thereby reducing the impact of the win they had already on the books.

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I'm going to put out my predictions for this week...something real quick and later I can check to see how wrong I am..

 

ATL beats KC

Buf beats Oak

Chi beats TB

TN beats Hou

NYG beats Cin

Minn beats Car

Mia beats NE

AZ beats Wash

ST.L beats STL

Det beats SF

Den beats NO

IND beats Jax

Cle beats Balt

Pitt beats PHL

Dal beats GB

SD beats NYJ

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