2008 Week 3 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Season to date my selections are 11-1, including 4-0 last week. I've been studying week 3 and hope to have some selections by Friday. Hope everyone here had a good week (some had great ones including Mojo and Ratt!) last week and we'll try to have another solid week 3. Good luck!!

[rattsass]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Season to date my selections are 11-1, including 4-0 last week. I've been studying week 3 and hope to have some selections by Friday. Hope everyone here had a good week (some had great ones including Mojo and Ratt!) last week and we'll try to have another solid week 3. Good luck!!

There are two lines that have my interest. Looking at possibly Atlanta -5 vs. Chiefs, and Green Bay +3 vs. Cowboys.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

After looking at the lines only one game jumps out

CHI over TB

i just believe that TB will not be able to move the ball against Chi

i look for a low scoring game with Tampa not getting in the end zone

 

Chicago 17

Tampa 6

 

under 36

Edited September 17, 2008 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[Mojo Rising]

Anybody feel STL can bounce back and cover the 9.5? Seems a little steep for a decimated hawks team.

 

I know its at home but its hard to take them serious after being lit up back to back weeks (buf34, sf33).

Edited September 17, 2008 by Mojo Rising

[rattsass]

Anybody feel STL can bounce back and cover the 9.5? Seems a little steep for a decimated hawks team.

 

I know its at home but its hard to take the serious after being lit up back to back weeks (buf34, sf33).

Hey, if SF can rack them up the Rams certainly have a chance. 10 points is way too many for a team that is playing like the Seahawks. BUT I hate laying dough on a game that features two horrible teams. Probably a no play for me, but I would lean your way.

[Gopher]

Hey, if SF can rack them up the Rams certainly have a chance. 10 points is way too many for a team that is playing like the Seahawks. BUT I hate laying dough on a game that features two horrible teams. Probably a no play for me, but I would lean your way.

Too early in the season, in my opinion, to tell which team is going to show up for either side. Plus, divisional games between these two teams have been fairly unpredictable, regardless of their records. I could see a blowout, but only if Seattle gets a couple of defensive scores. Not likely, but not that hard to imagine, either. I wouldn't touch the over/under, either. Too hard to tell what's going to happen. The one thing that I can't see happening is Seattle losing two in a row at home to mediocre/poor divisional opponents. I think Seattle wins, but not sure by how much. I put a small amount on some 7-point teasers, including Seattle in one of them. Instead of the 9.5, I just need them to win by 3 or more, which I am fairly confident will happen.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Anybody feel STL can bounce back and cover the 9.5? Seems a little steep for a decimated hawks team.

 

I know its at home but its hard to take them serious after being lit up back to back weeks (buf34, sf33).

I heard on tv tonight that the Rams have'nt been in the red zone this season. That's some scary sh it .

[wildcat2334]

There are two lines that have my interest. Looking at possibly Atlanta -5 vs. Chiefs, and Green Bay +3 vs. Cowboys.

 

 

with ya on the ATL

 

haven't dug in too deep yet - but I like the looks of

 

WASH -3

SF -4

 

in da college game tonight I am on WVU -3

 

good luck- more to come!!!

[whomper]

anyone have any strong college plays for saturday ?

[Timmypg]

I'm no expert but I like:

 

East Carolina -6.5

Bama -9

Florida -7.5

LSU -2

 

ETA: East Carolina's & LSU's spread both moved down.

Edited September 20, 2008 by Timmypg

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

my three plays this week

 

Chi -3

Chi / TB under 35.5

Cle / Bal under 38

[rattsass]

6-1 in posted plays.

 

Ten -4.5

Atl -6

 

The trend numbers on that ATL game don't look that great for a play. KC is 7-1 ATS on the road. I don't care. They stink. They just got jacked up hard by the Oakland running attack, and I think Atlanta's is probably poised for the same kind of day. The Chiefs are a disaster. Kind of a big number for this game but my anti-faith in the Chiefs overcomes all. The Falcons put a whuppin' on a similarly terrible Lions team in week one and this smells like a repeat of that.

 

Tennessee is simply a case of Houston's inability to run the ball, control the clock, or control either line of scrimmage. I hate to give more than 3 in a divisional game, but if Tennessee shows up anything like the last two weeks it will be lights out for Houston.

 

Also playing those two as a teaser.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

6-1 in posted plays.

 

Ten -4.5

Atl -6

 

The trend numbers on that ATL game don't look that great for a play. KC is 7-1 ATS on the road. I don't care. They stink. They just got jacked up hard by the Oakland running attack, and I think Atlanta's is probably poised for the same kind of day. The Chiefs are a disaster. Kind of a big number for this game but my anti-faith in the Chiefs overcomes all. The Falcons put a whuppin' on a similarly terrible Lions team in week one and this smells like a repeat of that.

 

Tennessee is simply a case of Houston's inability to run the ball, control the clock, or control either line of scrimmage. I hate to give more than 3 in a divisional game, but if Tennessee shows up anything like the last two weeks it will be lights out for Houston.

 

Also playing those two as a teaser.

 

 

something just scares me about the Ten - 4.5

every site i have been to has them as a winner.

the huddle is the only source that does not have then covering Ten 20 Hou 17

two of the sites have them as best bets

if the line does not change by a full point. these are the games i shy away from.

no reason other than the fact that if evryone likes them to cover why has the line not changed ??

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

i just noticed that in Dre's e-mail he had Ten -4

so maybe there has been some movement earlier that i missed.

i would still watch this line closely before making the wager

[rattsass]

i just noticed that in Dre's e-mail he had Ten -4

so maybe there has been some movement earlier that i missed.

i would still watch this line closely before making the wager

Yeah, it opened at 5 so apparently the money is flowing to the Texans.

[Mojo Rising]

my plays (other than dre's, which I like):

 

Rams +9.5 (too many pts in my opinion)

49ers -4.5 (martz revenge)

Falcons -6.5 (horrible kc team on both sides of the ball)

Redskins -3 (riskiest play but I feel they're for real)

Eagles -3 (no monday night hangover)

Panthers/Vikings O 37.5 (both will air it out....because they have to......steve smith back with a fury)

[whomper]

my plays (other than dre's, which I like):

 

Rams +9.5 (too many pts in my opinion)

49ers -4.5 (martz revenge)

Falcons -6.5 (horrible kc team on both sides of the ball)

Redskins -3 (riskiest play but I feel they're for real)

Eagles -3 (no monday night hangover)

Panthers/Vikings O 37.5 (both will air it out....because they have to......steve smith back with a fury)

 

 

Where are dres picks ?

[Steeltown Dre]

On Sat AM it was Ten-4 but is now at Ten-4.5 everywhere.

 

2008 Week 3 Plays:

 

Ten -4.5

Chi -3

Buf -9.5

 

Week 3 Comment:

 

My system is up and running, but as it still is early, I am taking it into consideration but not blindly following it. The system is exceptionally good on certain totals, but there are no large plays this week.

 

Writeups:

 

Ten -4 (@ BetUS)

-4.5 (Elsewhere)

 

* Ten is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home off of back to back wins since 2002

* Home teams off a win and facing an opponent off of a 21+ point loss are 9-2 ATS and 10-1 SU since 2002.

* In the last 10 years, teams w/ a losing record who are off a bye and lost by 21+ prior to the bye who are underdogs in their next game are 3-8 ATS.

* If that team is a road dog, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 22 points and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs.

* Houston is 0-4 and 1-3 ATS on the road off a 7+ point loss when playing a team in it's own division who has a winning record. They lose by an avg of 19 points and fail to cover by an avg of 8 points.

 

The only thing that draws hesitation is that the last 6 matchups by these two teams have been decided on average by 6.5 points. Ten has won all of them, but they have not been easy. However, 3 of those 6 games pitted Ten as the underdogs. The avg line for those 6 games was Ten -1.3 points. The largest line was Ten -6.5 which Ten failed to cover.

 

Linesmakers have added some wood to the line compared to the recent average, but it does not dissuade me from taking Ten in this spot. Of course, there is no real telling how Ike has affected the mentality of the team. DT Travis Johnson's house was destroyed, a tree crashed into defensive end Mario Williams' home, and a ceiling collapsed in one room of tight end Owen Daniels' house. I have read quotes where they will be "playing for the city", which we know what happened in the Saints first game after Katrina. However, I believe Ten will win and should cover the 4 to 4.5 point line.

 

Chi -3

 

* Chicago is 3-1 SU in Home Openers under Lovie Smith. In the 3 victories, they averaged 23 points more than their opponents and covered the spread on average by 16.5 points.

* Teams who lost as road dogs the week before, but were winning at the half, and are now home favorites against a team who won last week are 13-2 ATS since 2001.

* Teams who won 2 weeks ago and went away as road dogs the following week and lost but were winning at the half playing and are now home favorites against a team who won last week are 7-0 ATS since 2000.

* Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS on the road the week after a home win.

* If their opponent lost the week before, that number drops to 1-7 ATS

* Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS on a Sunday home opener for their opponent, and if a dog, 1-4 ATS.

* Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 3-10 ATS vs. NFC teams outside their division and 4-9 SU. In their 9 losses, they lost by an avg of 9 points, and failed to cover as a dog in those losses by an avg of 3 points.

* Since 2003, Tampa Bay is 5-20 ATS on the road against non-divisional opponents, including 0-5 in 2007.

 

I think this game will be close and TB's defense is the reason. Some games I play because I believe a team will easily cover the spread. Others I play because I have a high confidence level that a team will cover the spread. The latter is one of those occasions. While I don't predict a lopsided and easy victory, I do think Chi will win this game by 4 or more points.

 

I am always a little leary on a -3 home line. Historically, it has not been kind to the favorite (2007 in particular). However, we'll lay the 3 and pull for the Bears to continue their run. As a side note, I do believe Lovie's familiarity with Griese's skill set and tendencies is more of an advantage to Chicago than Griese's familiarity with playing in Chicago and against the Chicago defense in practice is an advantage to Tampa Bay.

 

Buffalo -9.5

 

* Since 2001, the Raiders are 1-9 ATS the week before facing the rival Chargers.

* If playing a team outside their division, they are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU, losing by an avg of 16 and failing to cover by an avg of 17.

* If on the road, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, losing by an average of 17 and failing to cover by an avg of 14.

* If they are underdogs, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing by an avg of 24 and failing to cover by an avg of 16.

* Since 2001, the Raiders are 0-4 ATS and SU when playing a non-divisional sandwich game (previous team was in their division, next team is in their division, current team is not).

* The Raiders are 1-8 ATS when traveling to play another AFC team in the Eastern time zone since 2003.

* Since 1996, Buffalo is 7-1 ATS at home as a TD+ favorite after a win.

* In the last 2 years, Buffalo is 13-5-1 ATS after covering in their previous game, including 7-2 ATS at home.

 

 

Advice Only:

 

If you are taking the Buf/Oak Under, make sure you have 37!

 

This game was on my radar for a potential Under play, however, it would go against my system. So I am not playing it, but I just want to provide this advice to you if you are planning to play the Under:

 

In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this:

 

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time

Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time

Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time

Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time

 

Therefore, having 37 would allow you to push on a number that occurs twice as often as 38, 36, or 35.

 

You having 36.5 will allow you to win on 36, but you lose on 37, which is twice as valuable than 36. Therefore, I highly recommend if you at all were contemplating playing this under, you take U 37. Again, this is not an official play, it is a recommendation if you do decide to play the Under in this game.

0 comments

2008 Week 3

Posted by Sharp Football Analysis Links to this post

.

 

Rolled out my system and saw the plays. Doing my own capping and comparing it to the system to see what makes the final cut this week. This week is a tricky one, in that of the 16 games, only 1 is a home dog. It is also the first week of games prior to the bye weeks starting, so you have several teams heading into bye weeks after this game.

 

Further affecting things is that two of the 16 games feature "victim teams" of what I'll call the "ghost bye week" in Bal and Hou. Most teams spend their bye week getting healthy (a few days off), focusing on their next opponent in 2 weeks, and then installing new packages or scouting for future opposition.

 

Bal and Hou finished Week 1 focused on one another. Their "bye week" was spent focused on a team they thought they'd face. They did not take any time off, nor did they start thinking about Ten and Cle (their week 3 opponents). Bal spent last Thursday preparing Flacco for the crowd noise in Houston's Reliant Stadium, and decided to travel to Houston on Sunday due learning on Thurs that the game was postponed to Monday. It wasn't until Saturday that both teams realized they would not play one another this past Monday. So they started out this week preparing for Ten and Cle. So nothing was "bye" about the week at all except for the lack of a brusing 60 minute game (which is still something to be thankful for if you are a player, but I'm sure you'd rather have a few weeks in a row of that brusing than just 1 game and now it is 15 weeks straight)

 

Not exactly what you want from a bye week and this completely ignores the fact that Hou players may have been dealing w/ the Ike aftermath during the week.

 

All these factors combined present a lot to think about when capping these games.

 

I hope to have my plays out tonight, but there is a strong chance I wont have them out until Saturday AM. Usually I will try to get things out Friday night, and will still aim for that, but you may not get the e-mail until Saturday AM, just to give you a heads up.

[Steelhead]

Is TEN still a good play at -5?

[rattsass]

Nice work as always Dre. Not tailing you on the Chicago game but I think the other two are solid. Good luck everyone!

[whomper]

I teased Tenn +5 / Chi + 7 and the under in KC/Atl 46.5

[Avernus]

since it's not raining, I like the over in the Broncos/Saints game (51.5)...and I like the over in the Lions/49ers game (46.5)....also Rams +9....

[whomper]

I am not sure if you guys play individual over unders at all. I am a sucker for them. I am 1-2 on posted plays this year. I wont count my tease above because its Dres pick with just one game of mine thrown in in a tease.

 

I like the Raiders over 13.5 and I like the Lions over 20.5.

[Mojo Rising]

since it's not raining, I like the over in the Broncos/Saints game (51.5)...and I like the over in the Lions/49ers game (46.5)....also Rams +9....

 

I like that play too.....trailing u

[i_am_the_swammi]

4-5 in posted plays...looking to get back into the plus column:

 

Plays for Week 3:

 

PHL/PIT over 45

DET/SF over 47

Rams +10 (on Bodog)

NE -13

Panthers +3.5