2008 Week 4 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Still mad that Chi didn't cover the spread against TB. That was by far my toughest and most frustrating loss of the season. Season to date 12-3. Hopefully we'll produce some winning results this week.

 

My system is starting to shape up and I'm hopeful that it is pretty on point this week and I'll then be able to really rely on it for some quality insight. Last week (week 3) was the first run of the season and the results were mediocre in most respects and below my standard. But, it does take some time for it to really bear down, and last week was a tough one in many respects. Only 1 road favorite, and many inflated lines prior to bye weeks. I think this week will be better.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Am i the only one ??

i have never been what you would call a superstitious person.

but a pattern has definitely appeared.

 

week 1 4 - 0 with picks not posted

week 2 3 - 0 with picks not posted

week 3 8 - 0 with picks not posted including 2 parleys

 

i think i may be more incline to take a risk and go with my gut when not posting

but when i'm posting i'm more conservative ?

 

i will test my theory this week with gut picks that have no stats to back them up.

so here goes

 

Philly - 3.5 ( was able to get it @ -3 )

Denver -9.5

Bal / Pit under ( any number you can get ) i took u 35

 

if i am not 3 -0 this week i will not post again

Edited September 26, 2008 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[whomper]

Losing that teaser the way I did twisted my guts. One of those losses that makes you realize you never truly win. Sad part is I was watching the game on the computer and I just felt in my bones I was gonna get screwed. Down 17 1 minute left Pick 6 the other way blows my under. Truly gut wrenching brutal Fin loss. I am still sick

[rattsass]

8-2 in posted plays this year. Here is what I am on for this week.

 

Cleveland +3.5 - I'm not sure the Bengals should be favored over anybody, certainly not by more than a field goal. This should be a close game. The Browns won't hesitate to bring in Quinn if Anderson struggles. I actually like the Browns to win this game outright, but I will take the 3.5 just for kicks.

 

Chargers -8 - The Chargers own the Raiders. Don't let the Raiders inspiring performance over the last two weeks fool you. This should be a slaughter.

 

I am also going to go teaser on the Chargers and Bills. Almost made the Bills a play at -8, but feel a lot better about them at -2.

[nimal]

Whats wrong with teh Packers, why isnt everyone loving +1 as much as I am? Griese will come back down to earth against a solid defense in the packers while Green Bay offense should absolutly murder a defense which just gave it up to Kyle freakin Orton...what am i missing here ?!?!

[derek]

anyone like the SF/NO over 48? that jumped out at me

[Caveman_Nick]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Still mad that Chi didn't cover the spread against TB. That was by far my toughest and most frustrating loss of the season. Season to date 12-3. Hopefully we'll produce some winning results this week.

 

My system is starting to shape up and I'm hopeful that it is pretty on point this week and I'll then be able to really rely on it for some quality insight. Last week (week 3) was the first run of the season and the results were mediocre in most respects and below my standard. But, it does take some time for it to really bear down, and last week was a tough one in many respects. Only 1 road favorite, and many inflated lines prior to bye weeks. I think this week will be better.

 

 

So, Steeltown...do you share your picks form this system in this thread, or do you keep them to yourself? I am new in here, so just curious how this works

[Mojo Rising]

Whats wrong with teh Packers, why isnt everyone loving +1 as much as I am? Griese will come back down to earth against a solid defense in the packers while Green Bay offense should absolutly murder a defense which just gave it up to Kyle freakin Orton...what am i missing here ?!?!

 

 

Well the 'solid defense' has some holes now that Al is gone.

 

That defense relies heavily on pressure because the cornerbacks can play man, which I'm not too sure Tramon can handle.

 

I think GB is a great team and would take them if I HAD to take one of the two, but I'd rather stay away.

[Mojo Rising]

8-2 in posted plays this year. Here is what I am on for this week.

 

Cleveland +3.5 - I'm not sure the Bengals should be favored over anybody, certainly not by more than a field goal. This should be a close game. The Browns won't hesitate to bring in Quinn if Anderson struggles. I actually like the Browns to win this game outright, but I will take the 3.5 just for kicks.

 

Chargers -8 - The Chargers own the Raiders. Don't let the Raiders inspiring performance over the last two weeks fool you. This should be a slaughter.

 

I am also going to go teaser on the Chargers and Bills. Almost made the Bills a play at -8, but feel a lot better about them at -2.

 

Be careful with that one rattsass, the Bungles actually played some decent defense against NY and could put up some points on offense.

 

I love the Chargers play!

[whomper]

So, Steeltown...do you share your picks form this system in this thread, or do you keep them to yourself? I am new in here, so just curious how this works

 

 

He usually shares them later in the week or Saturday. You can also go to his site and sign up to get them mailed to you. It takes 2 seconds. Dre' is an excellent capper and puts hugh thought and analysis into his picks.

[Caveman_Nick]

Thanks Whomp. Done.

[Mojo Rising]

What do you guys think about Baltimore +5.5?

 

I was already liking them, then I hear the news of Mendenhall sending that text message to Rice talking smack. You know the defense is going to have that pasted all over the place as BB Material.

 

(posted on another thread, but just in case: http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/09/26/...-trash-in-text/ )

 

There's a couple of things I extremely fear in this world: the IRS and a pissed off Ray Lewis.

Edited September 26, 2008 by Mojo Rising

[whomper]

What do you guys think about Baltimore +5.5?

 

I was already liking them, then I hear the news of Mendenhall sending that text message to Rice talking smack. You know the defense is going to have that pasted all over the place as BB Material.

 

(posted on another thread, but just in case: http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/09/26/...-trash-in-text/ )

 

There's a couple of things I extremely fear in this world: the IRS and a pissed off Ray Lewis.

 

 

I wouldnt let that play into your thinking at all. I dont have a feel for the game but that text from the rook will have no bearing on the spread and outcome. If you really liked it you should still go for it

[Gopher]

Here's what I've got so far...

 

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

 

49ers(SanFrancisco) +10.5

Panthers(Carolina) 0

Titans(Tennessee) +3.5

 

 

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

 

Bengals(Cincinnati) +3.5

Packers(GreenBay) +8

Jaguars(Jacksonville) 0

 

I'll have more later... waiting to see Dre's plays for the week...

[whomper]

I put 150 on Mayorga tonight at +725. Fighst starts in 30 minutes. you never know. I also put 150 on the fight lasting over 9.5 rds

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I put 150 on Mayorga tonight at +725. Fighst starts in 30 minutes. you never know. I also put 150 on the fight lasting over 9.5 rds

\

 

i like the over ,, i'm on it too

i stayed away from the win pick

 

right now Berto is looking pretty good,, if he don't run out of gas ?

[whomper]

\

 

i like the over ,, i'm on it too

i stayed away from the win pick

 

right now Berto is looking pretty good,, if he don't run out of gas ?

 

 

The win pick is stricly to try and get lucky. Mayorga is a gamer. Berto is very tough. Odds were nuts to bet him. He looks like he wont run out of gas. Forbes is pretty craft but Berto is a superioir boxer

[darin3]

Cleveland +3.5 - I'm not sure the Bengals should be favored over anybody, certainly not by more than a field goal. This should be a close game. The Browns won't hesitate to bring in Quinn if Anderson struggles. I actually like the Browns to win this game outright, but I will take the 3.5 just for kicks.

 

Chargers -8 - The Chargers own the Raiders. Don't let the Raiders inspiring performance over the last two weeks fool you. This should be a slaughter.

I hate to jinx ya, Ratt, but I loved both of these so much that I threw 'em together for a little 2-gamer.

 

Also threw up another parlay:

 

Jags -7

Cards/Jets over 45

Niners/Saints over 48.5

Packers -pick-

 

E2A: And just in case anyone's checkin' my work, yes, I did pick the Raiders to cover in the "office pool". Of course, that was before DMac was listed as a game-time decision.

Edited September 28, 2008 by darin3

[whomper]

I put 150 on Mayorga tonight at +725. Fighst starts in 30 minutes. you never know. I also put 150 on the fight lasting over 9.5 rds

 

 

\

 

i like the over ,, i'm on it too

i stayed away from the win pick

 

right now Berto is looking pretty good,, if he don't run out of gas ?

 

 

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

 

 

[wildcat2334]

Am i the only one ??

i have never been what you would call a superstitious person.

but a pattern has definitely appeared.

 

week 1 4 - 0 with picks not posted

week 2 3 - 0 with picks not posted

week 3 8 - 0 with picks not posted including 2 parleys

 

i think i may be more incline to take a risk and go with my gut when not posting

but when i'm posting i'm more conservative ?

 

i will test my theory this week with gut picks that have no stats to back them up.

so here goes

 

Philly - 3.5 ( was able to get it @ -3 )

Denver -9.5

Bal / Pit under ( any number you can get ) i took u 35

 

if i am not 3 -0 this week i will not post again

 

 

dood- nothing personal - but let's get real here- yer 15-0 in non-posted plays?? get outta here with dis chit - yer a joke

 

go read BPP in the NFL forum- he is the only documneted 15-0 I know of, and we should be all playin his games...........

[ljbrun]

Here's what I still have open:

 

Arizona at New York Jets - Arizona + 1.0 @ -110

 

Minnesota at Tennessee - Tennessee - 3.0 @ -110

 

From yesterday:

 

Kent St at Ball State - Ball State -17.0 @ -110 Win

 

N Carolina at Miami Fla - N Carolina +7.5 @ -110 Win

 

Troy St at Oklahoma St - Troy St +16.5 @ -110 Lose

 

Virginia Tech at Nebraska - Virginia Tech +7.0 @ -110 Win

 

 

Prior to this week:

 

New England at New York Jets - (Moneyline) New England @ +100 Win

 

Philadelphia at Dallas - Philadelphia +6.5 @ -110 Win

 

Miami Ohio at Cincinnati U - Cincinnati U -11.5 @ -110 Win

 

Vanderbilt at Mississippi - (Moneyline) Vanderbilt @ +215 Win

 

Marshall at So Mississippi - So Mississippi -8.0 @ -110 Lose

 

Virginia Tech at N Carolina - Virginia Tech +3.0 @ -110 Win

 

Obviously I'll return to the norm soon, but enjoying it so far. To help me pick I use this site:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/

I look for gaps between the prediction mean and the line, where the prediction data has a relatively small std deviation.

[Steeltown Dre]

Hou +7.5

Ten -3

SF +5

 

Hou +7

 

* Houston is 9-3 ATS vs Jacksonville, including 6-0 ATS following a loss

* Houston is 10-4-1 ATS after losing while accumulating 120+ rushing yards, including 6-2 ATS since 2003 if away

* The Jaguars are 5-8 ATS after facing the Colts, including 1-6 ATS as favorites.

* I also have two solid rushing systems, which are 30-15-1 ATS and 17-8-0 ATS since 2002 and 6-3-0 ATS and 4-1-1 ATS since 2007, and both are suggesting Houston +7

 

I like Hou in this situation even though this is a team who is going to be playing through a lot of adversity. They really "showed up" last week in Tennessee and gave the Titans a battle. This will be their 3rd road game in a row, which happens more than you think in the NFL w/ bye weeks, but still is not extremely common. I just like this spot for them and I will look for them to get the win. I've seen several outlets who still have +7.5, so grab that if you can but don't spend too much on the hook if you would be buying to it. The Texans are actually 8-1 ATS when facing the Jaguars and the Jags have a better record, and they are 4-0 ATS in Jacksonville if the Jags have a better record. In those 4 games, Houston was underdogs of 7, 10, 10.5 and 13. Houston won all 3 games where the spread was fewer than 13 points. Most recently a low scoring, 3 point win in 2006. I don't know that this game will be as similar, as Houston has a lot going against their favor, having already lost their bye week and not playing at home in now the 4th week of the season. But I see them rallying here and getting the cover.

 

 

Ten -3

 

* Teams off a home win in which they covered and are home favorites of a FG or less to a team who is also off of a win in which they covered are 11-3-1 ATS since 2002 and 23-8-1 since 1996

* Tennessee is 11-1 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season at home as a favorite of less than 3.5 points, winning by an avg of 8 points and covering by an avg of 6 points. They are 4-0 ATS against the NFC in this situation.

* In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 13 points and failed to cover by an avg of 10 points. They have not won ATS in their last 10 contests.

 

I know what you may say - "he's playing Tennessee again?" and the answer is yes. I can't say I'm head over heels for this play, but I won't let the fact that Ten has covered 3 straight and won 3 straight dissuade me from making this play. As you know, I look at each game and of course analyze public perception as one factor, so of course I do care about more than looking only at week 4. I care about weeks 1-3 for both of these teams. But doing my research, I found that since 1990, there have been 34 NFL teams who started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. In week 4, there were 9 of those teams who fit a similar situation as Ten here. Favorites of 3.5 or fewer points. Those 9 teams went 7-2 ATS in week 4, covering by an average of 6 points. If these teams were playing at home, they went 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 12 points. And actually, the last time this happened was last season, when 3-0 GB ventured into the Metrodome and defeated the Vikings, covering in the win by 6 points. Again, this was surely not a REASON to take Ten here, but it was a reason NOT TO BE SCARED to play them again. Against Min, they are not my favorite play on my card, but I do like them to get the job done at home.

 

SF +5

 

* The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in the first 10 weeks of the season after winning as a home favorite and heading onto the road

* The Saints under Sean Payton are 0-3 ATS after a road loss

* The Saints under Sean Payton are 3-8 ATS as home favorites, and just 1-5 ATS if favored by more than 4 points (failing to cover by an avg of 7 points and actually losing SU 3 of these 6 games)

* SF also falls into one of my rushing systems that has seen some success over the past several seasons.

 

I don't have much to say in this matchup, and you don't want to hear matchup analysis from me. The Saints are off a 2 game road trip and are finally home for 3 straight games. Teams who were on the road and then come home for the first of 3 home games (before week 10, so they are still in the early stage of the year), and are favored by more than a FG but less than a TD are actually 6-13 ATS.

[Dutch Oven]

What does eveyone think about Denver -9.5 at KC?

[Steeltown Dre]

What does eveyone think about Denver -9.5 at KC?

 

I don't like it. KC or pass or play another game.