2008 Week 4 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre , when do you think the O/U will start up with your system ? As far as your other picks this year as usual you have been money and I have passed your site on to some friends. My problem is # 1 I am an idiot and # 2 The games your system picks always seem to be games that I never have a feel for. When I look at the board every week certain games jump out at me and your picks are usually on games that I pass over. I have to start just going with the system . Especially since my system has been costing me for 20 years great stuff as always . I am spreading the word.

 

Thanks whomper. That's one thing I have leaned. Is that the high-profile games sometimes have a lot of value sucked out of them. The problem is, every tom dick and larry want to wager on that game because they want money on the line when they watch it. So many times, instead of shading a game towards one team or another, they will put out a very solid line and will ensure them profit. That line will make a lot of people bet on the game, and hopefully will bet fairly evenly on both sides. A lot of times these games come down to one play at the end, which decides a winner and loser, and while I've been in my fare share, I don't like it. The Chi/TB game in week 3 that went to OT was one example. I specifically said in that writeup "I think this game will be close and TB's defense is the reason. Some games I play because I believe a team will easily cover the spread. Others I play because I have a high confidence level that a team will cover the spread. The latter is one of those occasions." I played that game because I really thought Chi could win by 4, but not by much more. Not quite as much value there, but a lot of confidence. As you know, crazy and unreal ending and it lost, but it took a last second TD and dropped Ints and a stupid 15 yd PF to lose it, all in the last 2 mins + OT.

 

Whereas the lower profile games that are not getting as much attention, they will sometimes shade a line towards a team they want the action on, in hopes of really tricking the public. Hence the KC/Den game or the Jac/Hou game. Which is why I like to look for games that I can find value in, that most guys skim the week's games and quickly jump over for disgust out of the two teams that are playing.

 

As for totals, like I sent out last week on Sunday, the best total on my system was the Under in Cle/Cin. But w/ the QB change and the line move, I couldn't upgrade it to a full play, but I still thought it was worth mentioning. It cashed w/ ease, and I did get e-mails from several guys who ended up taking it anyhow, as their book still had 44 or 44.5.

 

My best overs system so far is 7-3, not quite 21-1 like last year, but I knew that would be impossible to replicate. I will send out totals plays if I think they have particularly good value. Many times this is towards the mid/late fall, when weather in northeastern cities is bad and unpredictable. But this season in particular is tough. As I said above, sure, I could send around my top 8 plays, but I'm a bit in a tough spot, because I know several guys who contacted me in the offseason, and they specifically wanted to see a few games. So for week 1, when I had a bunch of plays, they asked for my top few and I told them "sorry, I like them all" and they did go 7-1. But now I'm trying to release about 3-4 a week. At the most. For the majority of weeks. Because these guys lay down a fair amount but they only want to lay it down on a few games. They aren't the type to do $100 on about 6 sides and 4 totals.

 

I know it's tough, because I'm also catering to the crowd who does play $20 on about 7 games, and likes it that way. So I may do something where I make my selections but also share my next "tier" of plays. But I've gone back and forth on that one, and I really spend a large amount of time researching these plays this year, trying to tie every loose end. It won't always work. That's why I'm not on here posting quite as much, because I'm researching angles and stuff as much as possible. Not nearly as fun as last year, but hopefully it will pay off.

 

So anyhow, to finish answering your question, I'm going to pick and choose my spots w/ the totals, knowing I can only put out a few plays a week. But I can assure you that more totals will be made as the season progresses. It's only natural, happens every year for me...

[darin3]

3 shots of Jack, a jagerbomb and 9 lone stars is not a "system" D

I don't drink on Sundays. If I do, it's a couple of beers at most. I do actually have a bit of a system but it's nowhere close to as slick as what Dre puts out there. Thanks for the zinger, though.

[whomper]

Thanks whomper. That's one thing I have leaned. Is that the high-profile games sometimes have a lot of value sucked out of them. The problem is, every tom dick and larry want to wager on that game because they want money on the line when they watch it. So many times, instead of shading a game towards one team or another, they will put out a very solid line and will ensure them profit. That line will make a lot of people bet on the game, and hopefully will bet fairly evenly on both sides. A lot of times these games come down to one play at the end, which decides a winner and loser, and while I've been in my fare share, I don't like it. The Chi/TB game in week 3 that went to OT was one example. I specifically said in that writeup "I think this game will be close and TB's defense is the reason. Some games I play because I believe a team will easily cover the spread. Others I play because I have a high confidence level that a team will cover the spread. The latter is one of those occasions." I played that game because I really thought Chi could win by 4, but not by much more. Not quite as much value there, but a lot of confidence. As you know, crazy and unreal ending and it lost, but it took a last second TD and dropped Ints and a stupid 15 yd PF to lose it, all in the last 2 mins + OT.

 

Whereas the lower profile games that are not getting as much attention, they will sometimes shade a line towards a team they want the action on, in hopes of really tricking the public. Hence the KC/Den game or the Jac/Hou game. Which is why I like to look for games that I can find value in, that most guys skim the week's games and quickly jump over for disgust out of the two teams that are playing.As for totals, like I sent out last week on Sunday, the best total on my system was the Under in Cle/Cin. But w/ the QB change and the line move, I couldn't upgrade it to a full play, but I still thought it was worth mentioning. It cashed w/ ease, and I did get e-mails from several guys who ended up taking it anyhow, as their book still had 44 or 44.5.

 

My best overs system so far is 7-3, not quite 21-1 like last year, but I knew that would be impossible to replicate. I will send out totals plays if I think they have particularly good value. Many times this is towards the mid/late fall, when weather in northeastern cities is bad and unpredictable. But this season in particular is tough. As I said above, sure, I could send around my top 8 plays, but I'm a bit in a tough spot, because I know several guys who contacted me in the offseason, and they specifically wanted to see a few games. So for week 1, when I had a bunch of plays, they asked for my top few and I told them "sorry, I like them all" and they did go 7-1. But now I'm trying to release about 3-4 a week. At the most. For the majority of weeks. Because these guys lay down a fair amount but they only want to lay it down on a few games. They aren't the type to do $100 on about 6 sides and 4 totals.

 

I know it's tough, because I'm also catering to the crowd who does play $20 on about 7 games, and likes it that way. So I may do something where I make my selections but also share my next "tier" of plays. But I've gone back and forth on that one, and I really spend a large amount of time researching these plays this year, trying to tie every loose end. It won't always work. That's why I'm not on here posting quite as much, because I'm researching angles and stuff as much as possible. Not nearly as fun as last year, but hopefully it will pay off.

 

So anyhow, to finish answering your question, I'm going to pick and choose my spots w/ the totals, knowing I can only put out a few plays a week. But I can assure you that more totals will be made as the season progresses. It's only natural, happens every year for me...

 

 

Excellent response and something I would never have thought of. Great insight. Thanks again Dre

[wildcat2334]

I don't drink on Sundays. If I do, it's a couple of beers at most. I do actually have a bit of a system but it's nowhere close to as slick as what Dre puts out there. Thanks for the zinger, though.

 

I was talking Sat night, not Sunday- homie

 

all good- I hear ya- my "system" is to gather as much information as possible and hope like hell I am on the right side - naw in all seriousness I have some good resources - the more info like we get from Dre and others in this thread the better -

 

FYI - Hilton consensus plays last weekend - not gospel but a good way to gauge where you are on a given game bc they are solid

 

Tenn

SF

Bal

TB

WASH - not too shabby

[wildcat2334]

Congrats to the majority here who came away on the + side last night. Nice to end the week on a high note.

 

Last night was a perfect example of what I was saying in the lack of value. I'm sure Ravens backers were down after the first couple of drives where Flacco did nothing, and the Steelers marched down the field. Then the Ravens backers were fired up after the first half, but they found themselves lucky to only be down by 7 with 9:20 left in the game, right on the cusp of losing their bet. The Steelers lost multiple key players in that game and still beat the Ravens by 3. As a bettor, that was not the type of game you want your money on either side. It ended way too close to the line for comfort for either side. Which is why I passed. They don't always turn out like that, but in this case, it did and was good to pass on the game.

 

I have a study up on my site about totals the rest of this season, and what you could expect, and you're more than welcome to check it out. The graphic won't paste very well here, so the link to the post is simply my homepage: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

 

I too laid off Balt and played the over- but I disagree- I think Balt was a good, solid play with nice value last night. Sure, maybe they were down 7 late - but they clearly were outplaying Pitt and it shouldn't have gotten to that point - anyone on Pitt knew they were lucky as hell to even have a lead in that game

[Steeltown Dre]

I too laid off Balt and played the over- but I disagree- I think Balt was a good, solid play with nice value last night. Sure, maybe they were down 7 late - but they clearly were outplaying Pitt and it shouldn't have gotten to that point - anyone on Pitt knew they were lucky as hell to even have a lead in that game

 

I'm not saying Baltimore was not a good play, but I guess we can agree to disagree on the "value" of the play. Unless, of course, you are talking about having points in a divisional game, which always presents some level of "value".

 

But I look at the game through a slightly different lens. Baltimore had everything go right for them, including getting their Rookie QB going, their D pressuring/sacking Ben, a TD right before half to give them a cushy 10 point lead, holding Pittsburgh to only 3 points at the half, and that gift Int from Ben, as well as the #1, #2 and #3 RB from Pittsburgh out of the game, yet they still were down by 7 in the 4th quarter. Thus, outside of a cover.

 

To me that is a scary proposition. You've had everything go perfectly right for you, and you are a +5 or +6 point dog, and you are outside of covering and there are just 5 mins left in the 4th. If Flacco can't march the Ravens 76 yards for a TD w/ 4 mins left, they may lose and not cover.

 

Like you said, Bal did outplay Pittsburgh yet were down by 7 in the 4th. I knew the game could be tight and this was a situation like I was talking about w/ whomper. A MNF w/ a ton of bets on the line, and the actual line is pretty much spot on. Pit -5 on Monday and they won by 3.

 

I won't argue that Baltimore didn't play better as well as do more than I thought they would. But just like you saying Pitt was lucky as hell to have a lead, Bal was lucky as hell to have everything go so right for them throughout the game, yet still were down. (And the Defensive TD was due to great defense, not a mistake on offense)

 

Bottom line from me, I knew from the line release that I didn't want my money on the line in this game. This is one of those games where I can't really say there was a "right" or "wrong" play. Bal won ATS, but it wasn't easy.

[hollywood_69]

i was one of those week one blunders and have spent my load!! i use your picks in internet contests. keep up the good work! next season when i reload i will follow religously!