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Bump James Hardy Up...


darin3
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Roscoe Parrish is out 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury (and surgery to correct said problem).

 

Rotoworld sez:

 

Roscoe Parrish will miss the next 4-6 weeks because of thumb surgery.

 

Very disappointing after Parrish was off to the best start of his four-year career as a slot receiver. He's also an electric punt returner. Don't assume James Hardy will play a ton more now because Justin Jenkins will get snaps in the slot. Leodis McKelvin will likely take over on punt returns.

 

However, I disagree. I think Hardy is the benefactor here, especially this week with the struggling Lambs on the ticket.

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Done. I moved him up from a WR7 to a WR6, but only because Parrish is out and only because it's the Rams.

:wacko:

 

Many of us are in more than just 8-team leagues. With injuries and bye weeks to consider, why not throw a big rookie in against one of the league's worst?

 

:D

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:wacko:

 

Many of us are in more than just 8-team leagues. With injuries and bye weeks to consider, why not throw a big rookie in against one of the league's worst?

 

:D

 

I was in a smart-ass, sarcastic mood when I posted that. I know it probably came off as a swipe at you for putting it out there, but I was actually taking a swipe at Hardy for having a grand total of 2 catches for 12 yards and a TD in three games in spite of landing in what looked to be an ideal situation.

 

I have to admit that I was surprised to find that he actually is owned in all three of my 12 team leagues, so you've got a point. If you've been carrying him on your roster and you've got bye week and injury issues, this is as good a week to start him as any. Besides, now that I've popped off about how useless Hardy is, he's virtually a lock to have a big game.

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I was in a smart-ass, sarcastic mood when I posted that. I know it probably came off as a swipe at you for putting it out there, but I was actually taking a swipe at Hardy for having a grand total of 2 catches for 12 yards and a TD in three games in spite of landing in what looked to be an ideal situation.

 

I have to admit that I was surprised to find that he actually is owned in all three of my 12 team leagues, so you've got a point. If you've been carrying him on your roster and you've got bye week and injury issues, this is as good a week to start him as any. Besides, now that I've popped off about how useless Hardy is, he's virtually a lock to have a big game.

It initially looked like Hardy landed in an ideal situation and would be the #2 heading into the season, but Josh Reed has stepped up (finally!) and assumed the 2nd receiver spot. He has been solid over the first 3 games, especially in the final few minutes of the Oakland game. So yes, Hardy hasn't been that useful (except for his game-winning TD catch), but I think it's more of a product of Reed outperforming his expectations than Hardy underperforming.

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Anyone realistically expecting any rookie WR to make a significant FF contribution in the first half of the season is almost always bound for serious disappointment. Significant production from a WR in the first half of his rookie year is definitely the exception and not the rule.

 

In college, a lot of the CBs that WRs were being matched were predominantly WRs with bad hands, so they were changed over to the D side of the ball to take advantage of their speed in covering WRs.

 

When these WRs come into the NFL, they suddenly are matched against guys who make covering WRs a career. The pro CBs are strong, fast, and have incredible recovery speed, plus knowing the ins & outs of the pro game through experience. It's a vastly different situation than what they played against in 95% of their college careers, where they could use sheer physical talent to create mismatches. They need to learn that if they run a sloppy route a pro CB will undercut them and tip or intercept the ball. They need to learn evasion tactics at the LoS or the pro CB will keep them bottled up on the line for the first 2 seconds of every play. They need to learn to use their bodies to create or maintain advantageous contact because the windows in the pros are so small and they'll likely be in a physical fight for the large predominance of passes coming their way. They also need to learn how to recognize well disguised Ds so that they know when to sit down in the hole of a zone during a crossing route, and when to continue that crossing route against man-to-man coverage. Then you have blocking, which most teams require their WRs to be at least mediocre at, and some teams demand excellence. Not to mention the level of contact going up a notch or more.

 

All in all, it's a tremendous shock to the system and the senses of rookie WRs, guys who most likely always dominated in lower levels even though their play may have been sloppy or careless. Once that shock wears off and they get some experience under their belts we'll start to see some of these guys shine. It's why there is a 3 year WR rule, where smart FFers start looking at 3rd year guys because they are obtaining sufficient experience to compete on a regular basis every week. Some guys have enough physical talent or physical tenacity combined with smarts to shorten that time frame. I think Hardy is one of those guys who has sufficient tenacity and talent to shorten that learning curve. I'd watch for his emergence somewhere in the neighborhood of weeks 6-9 this year.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Anyone realistically expecting any rookie WR to make a significant FF contribution in the first half of the season is almost always bound for serious disappointment. Significant production from a WR in the first half of his rookie year is definitely the exception and not the rule.

<snip>

 

Sincerely, DeSean Jackson.

 

Every year at least one rookie WR ends up being a significant contributor to someone's fantasy team. Of course, if won't be your team if you don't target 2-3 rookie WRs in the draft that *could* be that difference maker and spend a late round pick on one.

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Sincerely, DeSean Jackson.

 

Every year at least one rookie WR ends up being a significant contributor to someone's fantasy team. Of course, if won't be your team if you don't target 2-3 rookie WRs in the draft that *could* be that difference maker and spend a late round pick on one.

 

Yeah, and if you include Royal, that makes 2 making contributions of any significance right now.

 

It also means that there are 33 WRs who were drafted who aren't doing squat in regards to FF right now.

 

Last year it was Johnson & Bowe doing some work while the other 32 drafted WRs did squat early on.

 

The year before that it was Jennings & Marshall who gave some early value while the remaining 32 contributed little to nothing in the first half of the season.

 

What's your point?

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Yeah, and if you include Royal, that makes 2 making contributions of any significance right now.

 

It also means that there are 33 WRs who were drafted who aren't doing squat in regards to FF right now.

 

Last year it was Johnson & Bowe doing some work while the other 32 drafted WRs did squat early on.

 

The year before that it was Jennings & Marshall who gave some early value while the remaining 32 contributed little to nothing in the first half of the season.

 

What's your point?

 

First of all, your low success rate is way overstated. There may be 30-some odd rookie WRs in the league, but only half a dozen are selected in fantasy drafts each year. This year, six rookie WRs were drafted in my 12-team league: Eddie Royal, James Hardy, Josh Morgan, DeSean Jackson, Limas Sweed. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson have already proved to be valuable players, that's a 33% success rate. Not bad for a late round selection.

 

My point is, your post chiding us for drafting a rookie WR is off-base. The investment is very minimal and the potential reward can be the difference on a championship caliber team. But, you won't get that boost if you don't try to hit on one of those guys.

Edited by gsmayes
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My point is, your post chiding us for drafting a rookie WR is off-base. The investment is very minimal and the potential reward can be the difference on a championship caliber team. But, you won't get that boost if you don't try to hit on one of those guys.

 

Whoa - draft whomever you want. I'd be the first to agree that rookie WRs are low risk since you can usually find them very late in the draft. But my point is that you shouldn't expect early production out of them. Even a guy as talented and physically gifted as Hardy will take a while to catch on to the pro game. Expecting good numbers out of any rookie WR in the first 6 weeks is foolhardy, IMO. If you get it, that's a bonus. But the whole discussion is that Hardy isn't doing jack right now, and apparently someone was expecting him to make an immediate impact.

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Whoa - draft whomever you want. I'd be the first to agree that rookie WRs are low risk since you can usually find them very late in the draft. But my point is that you shouldn't expect early production out of them. Even a guy as talented and physically gifted as Hardy will take a while to catch on to the pro game. Expecting good numbers out of any rookie WR in the first 6 weeks is foolhardy, IMO. If you get it, that's a bonus. But the whole discussion is that Hardy isn't doing jack right now, and apparently someone was expecting him to make an immediate impact.

 

I doubt anyone expects any kind of production. That's why they are late round fliers. We are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. I can't imagine anyone drafted Eddie Royal expecting 1200 yds, 9 TDs. But if it happens, cool beans.

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Bronco Billy was referring to me. I'm not impressed with Hardy, and I was ragging on him for his lack of production after landing in what seems to be an ideal situation in Buffalo. Billy feels that it's far too early to make that call and that it's unreasonable of me to expect a rookie WR to step right in and produce immediately when so few actually do.

 

Only time will tell.

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