muck Posted September 30, 2008 Share Posted September 30, 2008 (edited) For a quick refresher to those who are new to the weekly thread, I have used a combination of (i) backwards looking strength of schedule, (ii) forward looking strength of schedule, (iii) historic margin of victory and (iv) the historic margin of victory of a teams' future opponents to calculate projected W/L % for each team. Below is a projection for the playoff teams, the top few picks in next years draft, and projections for the winners and losers of week five: Projected playoff teams after week four: 12-4 BUF (4th easiest forward looking schedule in the NFL) 12-4 TEN (2nd easiest forward looking schedule) 10-6 PIT (14th HARDEST forward looking schedule) 10-6 DEN (15th easiest forward looking schedule) 9-7 JAX (5th easiest forward looking schedule) 9-7 BAL (8th easiest forward looking schedule) 11-5 WAS (7th easiest forward looking schedule) 11-5 TB (8th easiest forward looking schedule) 10-6 ARI (13th easiest forward looking schedule) 9-7 CHI (1st easiest forward looking schedule) 11-5 NYG (7th HARDEST forward looking schedule) 10-6 DAL (9th HARDEST forward looking schedule) Top Picks in the 2009 NFL Draft: 1.01 3-13 DET (4th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.02 3-13 STL (2nd hardest forward looking schedule) 1.03 4-12 CIN (11th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.04 5-11 HOU (3rd EASIEST forward looking schedule) 1.05 5-11 CLE (1st hardest forward looking schedule) 1.06 5-11 KC (3rd hardest forward looking schedule) 1.07 6-10 IND (9th EASIEST forward looking schedule) 1.08 6-10 MIN (11th EASIEST forward looking schedule) 1.09 6-10 SEA (6th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.10 6-10 SD (15th EASIEST forward looking schedule) Week Four Winners (23-20 after three weeks): BUF beats ARI by 6.0 points NE push SF -- conflicting projections MIA push SD -- conflicting projections TEN beats BAL by 6.5 points PIT beats JAX by 2.0 points DAL beats CIN by 9.5 points IND beats HOU by 5.0 points TB beats DEN by 1.5 points CAR beats KC by 7.5 points NYG beats SEA by 7.5 points WAS push PHI -- conflicting projections GB beats ATL by 1.0 points CHI beats DET by 15.0 points NO beats MIN by 1.0 points Edited September 30, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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