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Projections for the Rest of the Season


muck
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For a quick refresher to those who are new to the weekly thread, I have used a combination of (i) backwards looking strength of schedule, (ii) forward looking strength of schedule, (iii) historic margin of victory and (iv) the historic margin of victory of a teams' future opponents to calculate projected W/L % for each team.

 

Below is a projection for the playoff teams, the top few picks in next years draft, and projections for the winners and losers of week five:

 

Projected playoff teams after week four:

12-4 BUF (4th easiest forward looking schedule in the NFL)

12-4 TEN (2nd easiest forward looking schedule)

10-6 PIT (14th HARDEST forward looking schedule)

10-6 DEN (15th easiest forward looking schedule)

9-7 JAX (5th easiest forward looking schedule)

9-7 BAL (8th easiest forward looking schedule)

 

11-5 WAS (7th easiest forward looking schedule)

11-5 TB (8th easiest forward looking schedule)

10-6 ARI (13th easiest forward looking schedule)

9-7 CHI (1st easiest forward looking schedule)

11-5 NYG (7th HARDEST forward looking schedule)

10-6 DAL (9th HARDEST forward looking schedule)

 

Top Picks in the 2009 NFL Draft:

1.01 3-13 DET (4th hardest forward looking schedule)

1.02 3-13 STL (2nd hardest forward looking schedule)

1.03 4-12 CIN (11th hardest forward looking schedule)

1.04 5-11 HOU (3rd EASIEST forward looking schedule)

1.05 5-11 CLE (1st hardest forward looking schedule)

1.06 5-11 KC (3rd hardest forward looking schedule)

1.07 6-10 IND (9th EASIEST forward looking schedule)

1.08 6-10 MIN (11th EASIEST forward looking schedule)

1.09 6-10 SEA (6th hardest forward looking schedule)

1.10 6-10 SD (15th EASIEST forward looking schedule)

 

Week Four Winners (23-20 after three weeks):

BUF beats ARI by 6.0 points

NE push SF -- conflicting projections

MIA push SD -- conflicting projections

TEN beats BAL by 6.5 points

PIT beats JAX by 2.0 points

DAL beats CIN by 9.5 points

IND beats HOU by 5.0 points

TB beats DEN by 1.5 points

CAR beats KC by 7.5 points

NYG beats SEA by 7.5 points

WAS push PHI -- conflicting projections

GB beats ATL by 1.0 points

CHI beats DET by 15.0 points

NO beats MIN by 1.0 points

Edited by muck
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