Steeltown Dre Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. 17-4 so far, 3-0 last weekend. 7 games currently 5 or fewer points (same as last week), 4 home dogs, and several very high lines as well. And only two divisional games. Always a bit more to study up on when you are dealing w/ non-divisional games, I have a feeling this week will be a challenge. Good luck in your research and hopefully we will all come out on top in a week from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 wow pretty quiet this week....... some total plays I have on the radar, what do you all think: cowboys/cards over 50 (too many offensive weapons on both sides of the ball) jags/broncos over 48 (jags cant stop the pass, broncos cant stop the run) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nimal Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 Im in love with Baltimore +4.5 against Indy, and Bears -3 over Falcons....also cannot hate on Bengals +6 against the Jets.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 (edited) 14-4-1 on posted plays so far. Not quite pacing Dre', but on plays we have agreed on - not positive about this, but pretty sure every one has been $$. Smaller card this week. While last week I had to hone down my number of plays, this week I am grasping a little bit. There is one game that caught my eye immediately. Arizona +6 Spread opened at 5, when it hit 6 I locked in. I don't have a ton of statistical information to throw at you with this pick. The best trend for making this pick is the fact that the home team has won in this series 9 of the last 10 time. Not all that meaningful, but worth mentioning. I hit on the Cards last week when everyone was piling on Buffalo. The Cards are a different team at home. They knocked Trent Edwards out of the game and that was that. The Cowboys should have figured out over the last few weeks that they need to bring the running game more front and center. And they will probably will try to do that here. Unfortunately the Cards might not be willing participants in that plan. The Cardinals are actually the 7th ranked team in the league against the run. From a defensive standpoint, these teams are basically even against the pass and the run. If the Cowboys can get enough pressure on Warner, he could crack and give this one away. That is a possibility. With the Cowboys a bit nicked up in the secondary, they need to get to Warner. If they don't, Warner can do some carving this Sunday. I think the Cardinals have a great chance to win this game outright. So if you are asking me if I will take them with 6 points, my answer is hell yes. Browns +10 Well, the spread isn't at 10 just yet, but when everyone (as usual) piles on the favorite on Monday night I am confident the spread will hit double digits. I profiled my reasoning on this pick in my blog on the front page. It is just too easy. Giants 4-0. Browns 0-4. The good. The bad. No. It is never that easy. This is exactly the kind of game that ends up making favorite chasers pull their hair out. I'm not sure how the Browns get it done, all I know is this is a classic setup for Vegas to sweep the table. I'm not going to beg you to tail my pick, but I am begging you not to fade it. Edited October 10, 2008 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 14-4-1 on posted plays so far. Not quite pacing Dre', but on plays we have agreed on - not positive about this, but pretty sure every one has been $$. Smaller card this week. While last week I had to hone down my number of plays, this week I am grasping a little bit. There is one game that caught my eye immediately. Arizona +6 Spread opened at 5, when it hit 6 I locked in. I don't have a ton of statistical information to throw at you with this pick. The best trend for making this pick is the fact that the home team has won in this series 9 of the last 10 time. Not all that meaningful, but worth mentioning. I hit on the Cards last week when everyone was piling on Buffalo. The Cards are a different team at home. They knocked Trent Edwards out of the game and that was that. The Cowboys should have figured out over the last few weeks that they need to bring the running game more front and center. And they will probably will try to do that here. Unfortunately the Cards might not be willing participants in that plan. The Cardinals are actually the 7th ranked team in the league against the run. From a defensive standpoint, these teams are basically even against the pass and the run. If the Cowboys can get enough pressure on Warner, he could crack and give this one away. That is a possibility. With the Cowboys a bit nicked up in the secondary, they need to get to Warner. If they don't, Warner can do some carving this Sunday. I think the Cardinals have a great chance to win this game outright. So if you are asking me if I will take them with 6 points, my answer is hell yes. Browns +10 Well, the spread isn't at 10 just yet, but when everyone (as usual) piles on the favorite on Monday night I am confident the spread will hit double digits. I profiled my reasoning on this pick in my blog on the front page. It is just too easy. Giants 4-0. Browns 0-4. The good. The bad. No. It is never that easy. This is exactly the kind of game that ends makes making favorite chasers pull their hair out. I'm not sure how the Browns get it done, all I know is this is a classic setup for Vegas to sweep the table. I'm not going to beg you to tail my pick, but I am begging you not to fade it. Not a bad pair of home dogs... Not sure I'll play those two games, but if I did, I think I would agree with you on both of them. Been really busy this week, so I probably won't post mine until late Saturday or even Sunday morning. Last week, I had a very good week, thanks to Dre (followed both of his plays), and the fact that NOS came through on two different teasers in which I had them +3.5... a little bit of luck never hurts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 (edited) Im in love with Baltimore +4.5 against Indy, and Bears -3 over Falcons....also cannot hate on Bengals +6 against the Jets.... Jumped on the Jets at -6.5 on Bodog with the jets coming off the bye and the Bengals losing two heartbreakers, but will likely take the middle when the line jumps to -+9 or higher now that Palmer has been ruled out. Edited October 10, 2008 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Browns +10 Well, the spread isn't at 10 just yet, but when everyone (as usual) piles on the favorite on Monday night I am confident the spread will hit double digits. I profiled my reasoning on this pick in my blog on the front page. It is just too easy. Giants 4-0. Browns 0-4. The good. The bad. No. It is never that easy. This is exactly the kind of game that ends makes making favorite chasers pull their hair out. I'm not sure how the Browns get it done, all I know is this is a classic setup for Vegas to sweep the table. I'm not going to beg you to tail my pick, but I am begging you not to fade it. I like it......I'm with you on that one. Gotta love taking the dog on primetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Two early teasers of the week (both 6.5)... One favorites and one dogs: BAL +10.5 I think they'll keep this close with their defense, and the fact that IND can't stop the run. More on this later. CAR +7.5 Good road team, divisional game that always seems to be close, TB QB in question... I think they'll keep it within a touchdown. ATL +9.5 Atlanta is a different team at home. Bears may win, but once again, I think it will be close. MIN -6.5 Lions usually play MIN tough, but with Kitna in question, I think the Vikings' defense will make this a touchdown margin or more. WAS -7 The Skins get better each week... I just don't see much of a letdown here. NOS -0.5 Saints need a win after last week's debacle. Raiders may keep it close, but too many outside distractions for them to pull this off. More to come... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Going to Vegas this weekend for the first time ever . . . staying at the Mandalay Bay. I was going to bet a game or two, possibly. What do you all think of Miami (Yahoo has them at +3?) at Houston? Peace policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Going to Vegas this weekend for the first time ever . . . staying at the Mandalay Bay. I was going to bet a game or two, possibly. What do you all think of Miami (Yahoo has them at +3?) at Houston? Peace policy Hate it. Houston is the desperate team here, and no pushover at home as we saw last week. Lean for Houston in this game for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 (edited) Hate it. Houston is the desperate team here, and no pushover at home as we saw last week. Lean for Houston in this game for sure. Yeah, but they'll probably put Schaub back on the field . . . pushover status restored! Peace policy Edited October 10, 2008 by policyvote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Yeah, but they'll probably put Schaub back on the field . . . pushover status restored! Peace policy Ouch. That hurts. But seriously, I think this is a game where we have a team that is not as good as they have looked, against a team that is not as bad as they have looked. I see these as 8-8 type teams. To get to that point, the Dolphins have to lose and the Texans have to win. I don't know why, that is just the way things are in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Car/TB under 27 (Dres pick) I thought Dre's pick was Car/TB OVER 36.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 I decided to go mostly college this week. 3 team Parlay + teaser Miss. St +2.5 (won outright) Ok. State +14 (won outright) Arizona +5 Looking at a 5:1 payoff if I am right about the Cardinals today. I also have a 5 team parlay (played it just for kicks) with the Cards and Browns left to settle. ($10 to win $250) Only played two NFL games this week, If I nail those it is happy time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 Week 6 Plays: TB/Car O 36.5 Phi -4.5 Week 6 Writeups: TB/Car O 36.5 * Since Gruden took over TB and Fox took over Car (both in 2002), the Over between the two teams has gone a mere 5-7 on an average line of 36. * However, games in Tampa have gone 4-2 to the over, including 4 straight overs. (Since 2004) * Not only has this game gone over in TB the last 4 straight years, it has destroyed the over. On an average line of 36.5, the final score has been 52. Carolina has eclipsed 30 points in 3 of the 4, while TB has eclipsed 20 in 3 of the 4. On average, 12 first quarter points have been scored and 26 first half points have been scored. Needing only 11 more to eclipse the average total in the 2nd half. On average, by the end of the 3rd quarter, 40 points have been scored, well exceeding the posted total. * Tampa Bay's Overs have gone 8-1 in the last 3 seasons in home divisional games. On an average total of 37.5, the average final scores have totaled 44 points. * In Tampa Bay's last 9 home divisional games, the fewest points TB have scored was 23, save the 2 games started by Gradkowski as QB (6 and 14). On average, they scored 28 points. * In Tampa Bay's last 10 home divisional games, on average they allowed 24 ppg, ignoring the last 2 w/ Atlanta (where Atlanta scored only 3 and 9 points). * Thus, an average final score of 28+24 = 52 points * In Carolina's last 12 road divisional games, on average they scored 32 points, ignoring two road starts by Weinke and Carr (10 and 16 respectively). * Ignoring those same two contests, Carolina allowed an average of 19 points. * Thus, an average final score of 32+19 = 51 points * Under Fox, Carolina is 9-3 for Overs in road divisional games. On an average line of 39.5, the net finals have been 47 points. * In any of these 12 games where the total was set at 40 or fewer points, the over has hit 6-0, eclipsing the total by an average of 15 points. Granted, 4 of the 6 featured TB, which we mentioned earlier, but the other two, NO and ATL, both went over the posted total by 15 and 10.5 points respectively. Another angle is previously playing in a low scoring game in Denver the week before: * Teams who played their last game in Denver w/ a total of 38 or above and the game went under are 14-4-1 to the Over back at home since 2001, on average exceeding a 41 point total by 7 points. * The 4 losses were the result of vastly 1 sided games: 26-7, 29-3, 19-3 and 28-3. * If the total in the prior game in Denver was over 41 points, their next game went over 9-1-1 since 2001. * Since 2003, the over is 10-1 in those games, exceeding a 41 point total by an avg of 12 points. * Since 1990, if a team played in Denver on a total over 41 points and both team combined for only 34 or fewer points, the over in that team's next game at home is 8-0 ATS. This line is dead on to what you would expect from these two teams. Especially when you see that TB was just off of a 13-16 loss in Denver, and Carolina is 1-3-1 for Overs so far this season. It makes anyone who is looking at "what have you done for me lately" to hesitate on the Over. Not to mention the average posted totals between these teams in their last 10 meetings is dead on with 36.5. But let's investigate more: TB's total has gone over 8-1 in 9 home divisional games the last 3 seasons, but they did go Under in their one game so far this season, week 2 vs. Atl. So looking at that game: * ATL started a rookie QB in his first road game ever, against the infamous Tampa 2. * Ryan's first 6 drives resulted in two turnovers and 4 punts, almost all drives 3 and outs and advancing no closer than the TB 36. * ATL made many halftime adjustments, and conducted two sustained drives in the 2nd half, taking the ball to the TB 9 and TB 6 yard lines before settling for 2 FGs. * In total, ATL had 3 trips inside the TB 15 yard line and came away with only 3 FGs, not surprising for a rookie in his first road game. * Meanwhile, TB was able to put up 24 points themselves, though 10 were off of turnovers. In addition, as stated above, the Overs in these two teams last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay have all hit. But let's investigate the QBs of those two teams during that time: * Wk 17, 2007: Total 36, M. Moore (Car) vs L. McCown (TB) - both throw 2 TDs, final score totaled 54 points * Wk 3, 2006: Total 34.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 50 points * Wk 9, 2005: Total 36.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 48 points * Wk 16, 2004: Total 39, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. B. Griese (TB) - 7 combined passing TDs, final score totaled 57 points The games in Carolina featured even spottier QBs: two years ago Tampa started Gradkowski, and last year Carolina started Carr. The point of this analysis is that these games in Tampa went well over the posted total, and none of the four featured Delhomme vs. Garcia. The two best QBs on either team (need to see the health of Garcia to validate). I believe that if weather does not impact this game too much, we will see an over. Please use your own best judgement and money management given all of the information I have shared with you and make and informed and well thought out play on the game. A quick note about the final score landing on 36, 37 or 38: You definitely want to get 36.5 on this game. As I've said in past e-mails regarding the number 37: In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this: Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time Therefore, having Over 36.5 would allow you to win on 37, a number that occurs twice as often as 36, 38 or 39. In addition, in games lined 36, 36.5 or 37: 37 occurs 4.4% of the time, which is 2.4 times as often as 36 occurs (1.8%). The whole key is to win and not to push, so try to get that 36.5. Phi -4.5 * Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites on the West Coast * Under Andy Reid, Philly is 6-1 ATS vs. a non-divisional opponent after a loss to a divisional opponent, including 5-1 ATS on the road * Under Andy Reid, Philly is 5-1 ATS following a loss as a home favorite in their last game, including 3-0 ATS as a favorite. * Since 2000, the Eagles are 18-5 ATS following a loss * If favored, they are 10-2 ATS * I won't mention the specific system, but the Eagles qualify for a 16-4-1 subset of a system since 1990, including 9-0 ATS since 2000, covering an average -4 line by 8 points and winning by an avg of 11 points. * As a larger subset, they are 33-10-2 ATS since 1990 and in non-divisional games since 2000, they are 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS, covering a -6 point line by an average of 8 points. Short and simple as time is short. This is a play that I have had on my radar, and though not the strongest of my plays, it was one that I could not find good reasons to remove. I will take Philly and hope for a 5 point cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 I thought Dre's pick was Car/TB OVER 36.5? Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Including what I posted earlier in the week, here is what I'm going with this week: Parlay (4 Teams) All to win: Jets(NewYork) -410 Eagles(Philadelphia) -210 Broncos(Denver) -160 Vikings(Minnesota) -700 7 Point Teaser (4 Teams) Jets(NewYork) -3 DET/MIN Over 37 CAR/TBB Over 30 OAK/NOS Over 40.5 10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Texans(Houston) +7 Lions(Detroit) +23 Rams(StLouis) +22.5 Following Dre's plays: Eagles(Philadelphia) -4.5 AND CAR/TBB Over 37 And, from earlier this week: 6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Vikings(Minnesota) -6.5 (-105) Saints(NewOrleans) -0.5 (-105) Redskins(Washington) -7 (-105) 6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 10/10/08 13:45 ET Falcons(Atlanta) +9.5 (-120) Panthers(Carolina) +7.5 (-105) Ravens(Baltimore) +10.5 (-105) Good luck, everyone... looking forward to another fun/productive week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 I thought Dre's pick was Car/TB OVER 36.5? sorry That is what I meant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Car/TB over 27 (Dres pick) Min -3 Wash -3 I was also looking at Chi/atl under 43.5. I am going to put a small play on that as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 (edited) Not a bad first half for that TB over. We actually were close to breaking it open. TB had a goal line stand and Car was in TB territory a few times. Bryant missed a 51 yarder at the half. If Carolina gets to 17 its practically a winner unless a safety wins it. Edited October 12, 2008 by whomper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Not a bad first half for that TB over. We actually were close to breaking it open. TB had a goal line stand and Car was in TB territory a few times. Bryant missed a 51 yarder at the half. If Carolina gets to 17 its practically a winner unless a safety wins it. :cringing from jinx: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 :cringing from jinx: just some commentary on a half. No guarentees or overconfidence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Missed the early games I am on SEA -1 AZ +6 SF +6 - bet it before I saw Dre's email - sucker for the home dog- see how it plays out thoughts on tonight?? - leaning NE right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Going to Vegas this weekend for the first time ever . . . staying at the Mandalay Bay. I was going to bet a game or two, possibly. Got GB +1 at Seattle Am I taking crazy pills? No amount of crowd noise or Rodgers shoulder makes GB an underdog here, IMO. Granted, SEA is due for a rebound, but dang . . . Peace policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 missed my earlier games, s I won't post how I did. On NE tonight, and the over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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