2008 Week 6 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[policyvote]

Took most of my winnings from the Packers game and parlayed NE +6 and the under (44). My wife says I can keep playing with whatever I win, so keep your fingers crossed for me, fellas.

 

Peace

policy

[rattsass]

A friend of mine here in town is tailing my picks, exactly. Which is fine. As long as he doesn't blame me if it goes south. Anyway, near the end of the Dallas game which we had as the only open bet on a three teamer, he calls me. At the moment he called me Dallas scored the touchdown to bring them to within 4. He is giving me the high five over the phone, thanking me for another winning week.

 

If you have been playing for any amount of time you know this is just not a phone call you make. Bragging or celebrating before the fact is usually certain death. It isn't to be posted on the message board. It isn't to be spoken out loud. Celebrating before the clock ticks to zero is a no-no.

 

So I get off the phone with him and wait for the disaster. Dallas recovers the onside, ties the game, and I am beside myself. Dallas wins the toss. I'm getting that sick feeling in my stomach. Luckily as you all know it worked out in the end. So he calls me again after the game was over. First words out of my mouth, "Don't EVER make that call again."

 

So I pulled off the three teamer. I cheated death with the jinx phone call. Waiting for my local to quit taking my calls any time now.

 

Never been in the zone like this. I would like to humbly thank the football gods and any other gods that have been involved in this run.

Edited October 13, 2008 by rattsass

[Steeltown Dre]

Nice win on Ari Ratt. If I had more time I could have perhaps reassured you on the play. Both my fav and dog systems came out w/ the same prediction on that game: Ari -2.5. It is rare that they both line up like that, but they did in this instance.

 

Unfortunately, the play made my short list but I eliminated it in favor of the other plays. And what a terrible way to lose the total play:

 

The last time Jake Delhomme and the Panthers did not score a TD in a game was over two full seasons ago, week 1 of 2006.

 

The last time Jake Delhomme threw 3 interceptions in a regular season game was a full three years ago, week 6 of 2005.

 

Since Jake Delhomme came to the Panthers in 2003 and started for the team, the only game where he threw 3 ints and Carolina scored not a single TD was yesterday.

 

Suffice it to say, I am still disgusted over their inability to put up a TD, thus depriving us of a 2-0 day. Some call it a "bad beat", I just call it a random and unlikely event. For all of it to happen after a first quarter which played out so perfectly:

 

Two first quarter TDs and Carolina w/ the ball on 1st and 10 at the TB 14 yard line to start the 2nd quarter.

 

was just a tragic turn of events for us. My system showed a TB win and cover, w/ them scoring 23 to 24 points. They put up 27. However, it showed Carolina scoring approx. 20 in the loss. We only needed them to put up 1 TD and they could not get there.

 

The Over play came from my Overs system which was 4-1-1 (80%) since the I started running it this season in Week 4, and was 21-1 last season (95%) and 17-5 (77%) in 2006.

 

I am disappointed I cannot say it is now 5-1-1 (83%) on the season and we were 2-0 on the week. But such is life and we must move on.

[Gopher]

Nice win on Ari Ratt. If I had more time I could have perhaps reassured you on the play. Both my fav and dog systems came out w/ the same prediction on that game: Ari -2.5. It is rare that they both line up like that, but they did in this instance.

 

Unfortunately, the play made my short list but I eliminated it in favor of the other plays. And what a terrible way to lose the total play:

 

The last time Jake Delhomme and the Panthers did not score a TD in a game was over two full seasons ago, week 1 of 2006.

 

The last time Jake Delhomme threw 3 interceptions in a regular season game was a full three years ago, week 6 of 2005.

 

Since Jake Delhomme came to the Panthers in 2003 and started for the team, the only game where he threw 3 ints and Carolina scored not a single TD was yesterday.

 

Suffice it to say, I am still disgusted over their inability to put up a TD, thus depriving us of a 2-0 day. Some call it a "bad beat", I just call it a random and unlikely event. For all of it to happen after a first quarter which played out so perfectly:

 

Two first quarter TDs and Carolina w/ the ball on 1st and 10 at the TB 14 yard line to start the 2nd quarter.

 

was just a tragic turn of events for us. My system showed a TB win and cover, w/ them scoring 23 to 24 points. They put up 27. However, it showed Carolina scoring approx. 20 in the loss. We only needed them to put up 1 TD and they could not get there.

 

The Over play came from my Overs system which was 4-1-1 (80%) since the I started running it this season in Week 4, and was 21-1 last season (95%) and 17-5 (77%) in 2006.

 

I am disappointed I cannot say it is now 5-1-1 (83%) on the season and we were 2-0 on the week. But such is life and we must move on.

On the other hand, you could say that we were somewhat "fortunate" that the Eagles didn't make it an 0-2 week... Didn't look very good there for quite a while. Even if you throw out that last INT return for a touchdown, the Eagles had to outscore the Niners 16-0 in the 4th quarter in order to cover the spread. So, I guess what I'm saying is that if you look at the Carolina game as one we should have won, you probably should look at the Philly game as one we could/should have lost.

 

For me, other than following those two plays, I hit on one of my three teasers, which normally would be OK. Unfortunately, it was the 10-pointer that I won, which basically paid even money. So, I'm down a little bit... Probably stay away from the teasers/parlays next week, as I've been betting them a little more liberally than I should be.

 

Not a bad start to the season, though, Dre. Thanks again for the hard work and great insight each and every week!

 

Any thoughts on tonight? My initial feeling is that the Browns at home, coming off a bye, against the undefeated Giants, all point to the home dog playing well enough to cover. However, I just have this gut feeling that we haven't seen the worst of Cleveland yet this year, and things are only going to get worse. It just seems like a lot of people continue to think that Cleveland is going to at some point get back to last year's early season form, but I think they'll be disappointed. I'm going to keep an eye on things today, and probably stay away from this game unless it moves to +10 or higher. If anything, I feel more comfortable with the under than the points in either direction.

[wildcat2334]

On the other hand, you could say that we were somewhat "fortunate" that the Eagles didn't make it an 0-2 week... Didn't look very good there for quite a while. Even if you throw out that last INT return for a touchdown, the Eagles had to outscore the Niners 16-0 in the 4th quarter in order to cover the spread. So, I guess what I'm saying is that if you look at the Carolina game as one we should have won, you probably should look at the Philly game as one we could/should have lost.

 

For me, other than following those two plays, I hit on one of my three teasers, which normally would be OK. Unfortunately, it was the 10-pointer that I won, which basically paid even money. So, I'm down a little bit... Probably stay away from the teasers/parlays next week, as I've been betting them a little more liberally than I should be.

 

Not a bad start to the season, though, Dre. Thanks again for the hard work and great insight each and every week!

 

Any thoughts on tonight? My initial feeling is that the Browns at home, coming off a bye, against the undefeated Giants, all point to the home dog playing well enough to cover. However, I just have this gut feeling that we haven't seen the worst of Cleveland yet this year, and things are only going to get worse. It just seems like a lot of people continue to think that Cleveland is going to at some point get back to last year's early season form, but I think they'll be disappointed. I'm going to keep an eye on things today, and probably stay away from this game unless it moves to +10 or higher. If anything, I feel more comfortable with the under than the points in either direction.

 

 

absolutely - we can all analyze the breaks in a given game depending on which side we are on all day long. As someone who had SF +6 I consider that a tough L at home, a nice lead in the 2nd half that completely fell apart. A W is a W, and teams gotta finish, but I think anyone with some dough on Phil feels fortunate to come out with the win - such is life in the NFL

 

this is coming from SEA homer who actually played the Hawks when Vegas was giving away money in that game with GB + points- pissed off at myself for missing that ship completely -

 

tonight looks tough IMO- Cle aint' gonna be anywhere near +10 , looking at the over right now for a small play

[s.o.l.]

I'm like the over and Browns tonight.....thoughts?

 

 

 

 

14-4-1 on posted plays so far. Not quite pacing Dre', but on plays we have agreed on - not positive about this, but pretty sure every one has been $$.

 

Smaller card this week. While last week I had to hone down my number of plays, this week I am grasping a little bit. There is one game that caught my eye immediately.

 

Arizona +6 Spread opened at 5, when it hit 6 I locked in. I don't have a ton of statistical information to throw at you with this pick. The best trend for making this pick is the fact that the home team has won in this series 9 of the last 10 time. Not all that meaningful, but worth mentioning. I hit on the Cards last week when everyone was piling on Buffalo. The Cards are a different team at home. They knocked Trent Edwards out of the game and that was that.

 

The Cowboys should have figured out over the last few weeks that they need to bring the running game more front and center. And they will probably will try to do that here. Unfortunately the Cards might not be willing participants in that plan. The Cardinals are actually the 7th ranked team in the league against the run. From a defensive standpoint, these teams are basically even against the pass and the run.

 

If the Cowboys can get enough pressure on Warner, he could crack and give this one away. That is a possibility. With the Cowboys a bit nicked up in the secondary, they need to get to Warner. If they don't, Warner can do some carving this Sunday.

 

I think the Cardinals have a great chance to win this game outright. So if you are asking me if I will take them with 6 points, my answer is hell yes.

 

Browns +10 Well, the spread isn't at 10 just yet, but when everyone (as usual) piles on the favorite on Monday night I am confident the spread will hit double digits. I profiled my reasoning on this pick in my blog on the front page. It is just too easy. Giants 4-0. Browns 0-4. The good. The bad. No. It is never that easy. This is exactly the kind of game that ends up making favorite chasers pull their hair out. I'm not sure how the Browns get it done, all I know is this is a classic setup for Vegas to sweep the table. I'm not going to beg you to tail my pick, but I am begging you not to fade it.

[rattsass]

I'm like the over and Browns tonight.....thoughts?

Looks like the "favorite" money isn't exactly pouring in on the Browns. I got them at +9 late last week, but have seen that spread move down to 7.5 in some places. Still at 8 in most though I think.

 

I do like the Browns to cover here, but I would feel much better about them at between 9-10 than 8. Winslow being out has watered down my enthusiasm for this play. I still like it, but don't love it. Put it this way, I am way up for the week, but probably won't press with this game with the spread being what it is.

 

As far as the over/under, I rarely play totals and my opinion would be of no use to you there.

[Steeltown Dre]

True Gopher, glad to get that Philly win. But if you want to talk more about luck, Philly was up 17-9 and going for a FG on the last play of the 1st half. Make that and it's 20-9 at the half. FG attempt was blocked and returned for a TD. 17-16, total momentum shift. Interceptions are more predicable than Special Teams TDs on FG blocks. O'Sullivan has a knack for falling behind and throwing picks when trying to come back. He did it in NO, and he did it again this past week. And he'll do it again. I trusted him in the NO game and he burned me. No way I would put trust in him against the tough D of Philly, even if it is a cross-country road trip for the Eagles w/o Westbrook.

 

Philly did more in that game than the last few minutes indicate. They didn't need that Int return for a TD to cover. Philly had 3 offensive TDs to SF's 1. Philly was in the SF redzone 7 times to SF's 4 in the Phi redzone. 21 first downs to SF's 14. Philly also settled for FGs after getting to the SF 2, SF 8 and the SF 11. Other teams w/ a stronger running game (read, the NYG, SF's next opponent) may have much better success in the red zone.

 

I only tell you this for us all to learn about SF's inability to stop a team, even a team w/o a starting RB. The only team SF held to below 23 points is pitiful Detroit. They even allowed 30 to the unstable Sea offense. Their only 2 wins were against that poor Seattle team in OT and Detroit at home. They are 7-14 ATS since 2007 and 6-14 ATS as a dog. They simply need a lot of work.

[Gopher]

True Gopher, glad to get that Philly win. But if you want to talk more about luck, Philly was up 17-9 and going for a FG on the last play of the 1st half. Make that and it's 20-9 at the half. FG attempt was blocked and returned for a TD. 17-16, total momentum shift. Interceptions are more predicable than Special Teams TDs on FG blocks. O'Sullivan has a knack for falling behind and throwing picks when trying to come back. He did it in NO, and he did it again this past week. And he'll do it again. I trusted him in the NO game and he burned me. No way I would put trust in him against the tough D of Philly, even if it is a cross-country road trip for the Eagles w/o Westbrook.

 

Philly did more in that game than the last few minutes indicate. They didn't need that Int return for a TD to cover. Philly had 3 offensive TDs to SF's 1. Philly was in the SF redzone 7 times to SF's 4 in the Phi redzone. 21 first downs to SF's 14. Philly also settled for FGs after getting to the SF 2, SF 8 and the SF 11. Other teams w/ a stronger running game (read, the NYG, SF's next opponent) may have much better success in the red zone.

 

I only tell you this for us all to learn about SF's inability to stop a team, even a team w/o a starting RB. The only team SF held to below 23 points is pitiful Detroit. They even allowed 30 to the unstable Sea offense. Their only 2 wins were against that poor Seattle team in OT and Detroit at home. They are 7-14 ATS since 2007 and 6-14 ATS as a dog. They simply need a lot of work.

Understood. I wasn't saying that Philly was lucky to win yesterday, necessarily. You're right... They SHOULD have had a comfortable lead at halftime. They also should never have gotten themselves into the "predicament" of being down 9 with a few minutes to play. So, let's just say that I felt fortunate to win that bet, considering how it looked halfway through the 4th quarter. If SF gets a first down or two in the 4th, they win. They couldn't even do that. Three-and-out drives down the stretch cost them the game. The INT was just the icing on the cake. In my opinion, their defensive struggles this year have just as much to do with the offense's ineptitude to keep drives going late in the game as it does the actual play of the defense. Either way, the team is struggling to win games in which they are in the position to win late, and can't finish.

 

Here in the Bay, fans are either calling for Nolan's head, or for O'Sullivan to be benched. Not sure which will happen first, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both happen by the end of this year, or for sure in the off-season. O'Sullivan may outlast Nolan simply because he's Martz's QB of choice. The problem with that is that JTO has always been a life-time backup QB... The main reason he won the job in the first place was because he knew Martz's offense from his days in St. Louis, not necessarily because he's more talented. Bottom line... they need better/more consistent QB play to get to the next level. This would help them immensely in the last few minutes of games, which seems to be where they are hurting themselves the most. Not saying they don't need anything else, but the other pieces are there, for the most part, for them to take that next step.

[Steeltown Dre]

A few numbers.

 

1

 

1 is the number of teams w/ a winning record that Cleveland beat last year enroute to their "dominant" 10-6 record

 

105

 

105 is the number of losses combined that the teams Cleveland beat had on the season. Their total record was 55-105, or roughly 6-11 on average.

 

* Road Favs on MNF since 2005 have gone 11-4 ATS, covering by an average of 10 points.

* If a non-divisional game, 6-3 ATS.

* If non-divisional and the line is more than a FG but not double digits, 5-0 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 18 points

* In fact, since 2003, road favorites on a line of more than a FG but less than 10 in a non-divisional game have covered 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU, winning on average by 18 and covering by 12

* Since 2003, the Giants are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. If the line is over 3.5 points, the Giants are 4-2 ATS, covering an 8.5 point average line by 5 points.

* In non-divisional road games since 2005, the Giants are 13-5 ATS including 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, going 9-1 SU and winning on average by 12 points.

* Since 2005, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on Monday Night, including 2-0 as a favorite. Unders went 3-1 ATS in those games.

* Since 2005, the Browns are 1-3 ATS as a home dog

* Since 2005, the Giants are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in a non-divisional game against a team with a losing record, covering a 6.5 avg line by 5 points.

* 1 win teams coming off a week 5 bye are 2-8 ATS since 2004. If underdogs, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by 19 points and failing to cover by 13.

 

This is the Giants only MNF game this season. Yes, they have played some easier games this season, but they have performed well. The Browns, on the other hand, have looked bad against some overrated teams (Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens) and their only win came off a game where a 0-6 team:

 

* started Ryan Fitzpatrick,

* turned the ball over 5 times,

* and still had a lead heading into the 4th quarter

 

It took 17 4th quarter points by Cleveland to earn a 8 point victory.

 

I also lean towards the Under here, but will play on the NYG.

 

Again, this is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover. I have heard from many that Cleveland wins this game. While anything is possible, I see the NYG looking to use tonight's game to stamp themselves on the map as the team to beat. One concern is the kick return ability of Joshua Cribbs, he is a very dangerous weapon.

 

The Giants have used motivation to get fired up for last season's Super Bowl run, and for some reason, Cleveland was bored in their bye week and contributed some bulletin board material for the Super Bowl Champs:

 

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-...0,4854389.story

 

Tonight, as rare and as much as I hate to swallow it, I will take the public play and take NYG to win by 8. Late money has come in on Cle to drive this line down. Normally that is a bad thing but it won't be the first nor the last time I ignore line movement and take advantage of a line I think is a good one.

 

Grab -7 if you can, it may be an option for you. If not, 7.5.

[SheikYerbuti]

One of the oldest gambling "truisms" I can remember learning years ago was: Always take the home dog on MNF.

 

But I can't bring myself to do it here. . .

[Steeltown Dre]

One of the oldest gambling "truisms" I can remember learning years ago was: Always take the home dog on MNF.

 

But I can't bring myself to do it here. . .

 

Hold off if you are not sure. Best move you could make.

 

But info here:

 

HDs on MNF: 16-25 ATS since 2000

 

HDs less than 3: 6-3 ATS

HDs of 3: 2-6 ATS

HDs between 3.5 and 8: 3-15 ATS

HDs of 8.5 and higher: 5-1 ATS

 

Right now line is either 7.5 or 8, both of which are 3-15 ATS since 2000. Could be 4-15 or 3-16 after tonight. One or the other...

[rattsass]

Browns 8-1 ATS last 9 at home.

[Steeltown Dre]

Browns 8-1 ATS last 9 at home.

 

True Ratt, but only 1-1 this year. Last year this team took the league for surprise going 10-6, but not really, as only 1 team had a winning record.

 

5 of those 7 covers last year were as favorites. The two as dogs were at the beginning of the season and to two very, very bad teams last year, Cin and Bal.

 

You have been hot lately Ratt, I just hope perhaps NYG win by 8 and then we both collect!

[whomper]

clev + 6.5 22.5 2nd half line

[whomper]

I teased the Giants and the over. I thought I was gold at Giants -1.5

[SheikYerbuti]

HDs on MNF: 16-25 ATS since 2000

 

Well, make that 17-25.

 

[rattsass]

I begged you guys. I begged you not to throw down on the Giants. Wow.

 

16-4-1 80 freaking percent. I don't know who has bigger stones, Kellen Winslow or someone that fades me right now.

 

I begged you!!!!!!!

 

What more can I do?

[Steelhead]

I begged you guys. I begged you not to throw down on the Giants. Wow.

 

16-4-1 80 freaking percent. I don't know who has bigger stones, Kellen Winslow or someone that fades me right now.

 

I begged you!!!!!!!

 

What more can I do?

 

 

I tailed you, my brother came up with the same play so I said what the hell

[policyvote]

I parlayed the Browns +8 and over 42.5. I'm up about 48% so far on this trip. Thanks everyone for the advice and tips!

 

Peace

policy

[Steeltown Dre]

Congrats to all Cleveland backers. Providing my plays via e-mail is proving harder than I originally thought. It seems many people out there are quite desperate and use poor money management, and get into a hole, and then hope you can bail them out. Even if you tell them you don't have a clear read on the game, they still want to know what you are thinking and what play you've got. I learned a lesson yesterday afternoon and last night. I am not going to walk that route again. It's one thing to casually discuss leans and what not on a message board. It's another thing to send out an official play via e-mail that hundreds will tail. I feel terrible for them, but I won't let it happen again. I won't allow myself to be pressured to release a play. Gotta move on. 18-6 on the season, hopefully I see more games that I like this week than I did in week 6.