muck Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 A different tack than past weeks in an effort to get some conversation going: Team Currently Above .500 Most Likely to Finish .500 or Worse: New England Team Currently Below .500 Most Likely to Finish .500 or Better: Miami Current .500 Team Most Likely to Finish Above .500: Chicago Current .500 Team Most Likely to Finish Below .500: Green Bay Most Likely Top Seed from the AFC: Tennessee Most Likely Top Seed from the NFC: Arizona .............................................. Teams in the Playoffs: 13-3 TEN 12-4 BUF 11-5 PIT 10-6 DEN 9-7 NYJ 9-7 IND 11-5 ARI 11-5 TB 10-6 NYG 9-7 CHI 10-6 WAS 10-6 DAL .............................................. Projected Draft Orde for Non-Playoff Teams for the 2009 NFL Draft: 1. 2-14 DET 2. 3-13 CIN 3. 4-12 STL 4. 5-11 KC 5. 5-11 SEA 6. 5-11 OAK 7. 6-10 HOU 8. 6-10 SF 9. 7-9 CLE 10. 7-9 BAL 11. 8-8 MIA 12. 8-8 GB 13. 8-8 MIN 14. 8-8 PHI 15. 8-8 NO 16. 8-8 SD 17. 9-7 NE 18. 9-7 JAX (last AFC team to miss the playoffs) 19. 9-7 ATL 20. 10-6 CAR (last NFC team to miss the playoffs) .............................................. Next Weeks Winners (40-32 ytd; didn't pick week one games): BUF beats SD DEN beats NE NYJ beats OAK MIA beats BAL PIT beats CIN WAS beats CLE TEN beats KC IND beats GB HOU beats DET NYG beats SF DAL beats STL CHI beats MIN TB beats SEA CAR beats NO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdrudge Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 Next Weeks Winners (40-32 ytd; didn't pick week one games):MIA beats BAL I agree on all the others (or at least agree that it's very possible) except this one. I think Baltimore doesn't fall for the trick plays and wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pkillebr Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 I'm going to say that at least one of the following happens: St. Louis over Dallas Cleveland over Washington I just think it would be too perfect after what happened in week 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kansas State 2000 Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 Dallas will win this week ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millerx Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 My prediction is the Falcons make the playoffs! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 Huh. I like GB's chances of making the playoffs a lot more than DEN's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 15, 2008 Author Share Posted October 15, 2008 (edited) Huh. I like GB's chances of making the playoffs a lot more than DEN's. Why? The average winning percentage of DENs future opponents is .503 (SD is .530) ... GBs is .497 (CHis is .440 and MINs is .500) ... ...PLUS... Based on the average points that DEN scores and allows compared to the average margin of victory for their future opponents, DEN's expected margin of victory is 1.4 pts / week (SD is 2.9 pts / week) ... GBs is 0.3 pts / week (CHI is 4.0 pts / week and MIN is -1.3 pts / week) ... So, in summary: DEN, GB and MIN are all much easier future SoS than SD and much harder than CHI. MIN has the hardest forward looking Margin of Victory, GB is next, then DEN, SD and CHI. THEREFORE: Since DEN is already one game up on SD, plus has an easier SoS and a similar MoVs, they are more likely than SD to win the AFC West. ...plus... GB, MIN and CHI are all tied at 3-3, however, GBs SoS is much harder than CHIs and their forward MoV is much lower than CHis, therefore, CHI has an easier road to the NFC Central title. ...plus... I do not expect any team from either division to go get a wildcard berth. Edited October 15, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 15, 2008 Author Share Posted October 15, 2008 My prediction is the Falcons make the playoffs! Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 The Bills won't beat San Diego...sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robash Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Most Likely Top Seed from the NFC:Arizona i never in my life thought i would read that statement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Why? The average winning percentage of DENs future opponents is .503 (SD is .530) ... GBs is .497 (CHis is .440 and MINs is .500) ... ...PLUS... Based on the average points that DEN scores and allows compared to the average margin of victory for their future opponents, DEN's expected margin of victory is 1.4 pts / week (SD is 2.9 pts / week) ... GBs is 0.3 pts / week (CHI is 4.0 pts / week and MIN is -1.3 pts / week) ... So, in summary: DEN, GB and MIN are all much easier future SoS than SD and much harder than CHI. MIN has the hardest forward looking Margin of Victory, GB is next, then DEN, SD and CHI. THEREFORE: Since DEN is already one game up on SD, plus has an easier SoS and a similar MoVs, they are more likely than SD to win the AFC West. ...plus... GB, MIN and CHI are all tied at 3-3, however, GBs SoS is much harder than CHIs and their forward MoV is much lower than CHis, therefore, CHI has an easier road to the NFC Central title. ...plus... I do not expect any team from either division to go get a wildcard berth. That's a very persuasive argument. However, I have a tough time thinking teams who can not stop the run will go far, and DEN has a downright awful run D. Combine that with a non-existant pass rush that allows QBs to camp out for 5 seconds or more in the pocket and you see receivers running wide open throughout the 2nd & 3rd level of the field. If I'm not mistaken, opposing QBs are completing over 70% of their passes against DEN - and that includes games vs such stellar passing marvels like Russell, Huard, & Garrard. On the other hand, GB has been hampered by injuries, is still a young team, and ought to get stronger as the season progresses - most particularly as Rodgers gets more & more comfortable. I see upside for GB, and they play in a mediocre division. I see downside for DEN, and while the division is weak overall, the Chargers are still far & away the cream of the crop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Bump. There ought to be quite a few people here making comments/asking questions & tapping into muck's insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinatown dragons Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 A different tack than past weeks in an effort to get some conversation going: Team Currently Above .500 Most Likely to Finish .500 or Worse: New England Team Currently Below .500 Most Likely to Finish .500 or Better: Miami Current .500 Team Most Likely to Finish Above .500: Chicago Current .500 Team Most Likely to Finish Below .500: Green Bay Most Likely Top Seed from the AFC: Tennessee Most Likely Top Seed from the NFC: Arizona .............................................. Teams in the Playoffs: 13-3 TEN 12-4 BUF 11-5 PIT 10-6 DEN 9-7 NYJ 9-7 IND 11-5 ARI 11-5 TB 10-6 NYG 9-7 CHI 10-6 WAS 10-6 DAL .............................................. Projected Draft Orde for Non-Playoff Teams for the 2009 NFL Draft: 1. 2-14 DET 2. 3-13 CIN 3. 4-12 STL 4. 5-11 KC 5. 5-11 SEA 6. 5-11 OAK 7. 6-10 HOU 8. 6-10 SF 9. 7-9 CLE 10. 7-9 BAL 11. 8-8 MIA 12. 8-8 GB 13. 8-8 MIN 14. 8-8 PHI 15. 8-8 NO 16. 8-8 SD 17. 9-7 NE 18. 9-7 JAX (last AFC team to miss the playoffs) 19. 9-7 ATL 20. 10-6 CAR (last NFC team to miss the playoffs) .............................................. Next Weeks Winners (40-32 ytd; didn't pick week one games): BUF beats SD DEN beats NE NYJ beats OAK MIA beats BAL PIT beats CIN WAS beats CLE TEN beats KC IND beats GB HOU beats DET NYG beats SF DAL beats STL CHI beats MIN TB beats SEA CAR beats NO You list New England as a team currenlty at .500 most likely to finish .500 or less, yet predict their record at 9-7, which would be above .500???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2008 Author Share Posted October 17, 2008 You list New England as a team currenlty at .500 most likely to finish .500 or less, yet predict their record at 9-7, which would be above .500???? Based on their forward looking strength of schedule, they are the most likely to disappoint of all other teams currently above .500 (not equal to .500 as you ask). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.K.Trey Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Based on their forward looking strength of schedule, they are the most likely to disappoint of all other teams currently above .500 (not equal to .500 as you ask). this answer doesn't change the fact that in one post you said they would be under 500 and 9-7 , cant be both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.K.Trey Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 umm, why not? Muck's saying that they most likely will finish 9-7, but out of their peers, they're the most likely to disappoint. It's not mutually exclusive. It's not fact, it's statistics. EDIT: I see your confusion. You're thinking he's saying, "Fact, NE will finish below .500". That's not what he said. um.. this is exactly what he said. he posted questions , with his own answers under them . how am I confused/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrograde assault Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Pretty confident this is wrong Most Likely Top Seed from the AFC: Tennessee Most Likely Top Seed from the NFC: Arizona Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
major-tom Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Pretty confident this is wrong Most Likely Top Seed from the AFC: Tennessee Most Likely Top Seed from the NFC: Arizona I agree both have QB issues. If Tennessee continues to win Collins may not be able to handle the success and will surely go on a few benders start throwing ints like crazy. As far Kurt Warner goes after seeing him with that huge bandage on his face last week and all the hits he absorbed, it is hard to imagine him making it through the season. I guess the Tennesse defense could carry them a long way in the AFC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2008 Author Share Posted October 17, 2008 um.. this is exactly what he said. he posted questions , with his own answers under them . how am I confused/ Lord Opie has it right. My prediction is that of all teams above .500 currently (i.e., all teams that are 3-2, 4-1, 5-0, etc), which one has the biggest chance of being 8-8 or worse by the end of the season, NE has the biggest chance of being that team. Said another way, of all the teams that are 3-2, their projected record is closer to 8-8 than all other teams (iirc, I have projected their record at something like 8.6 wins and 7.4 losses ... rounds to 9-7 ... and no other team that is currently above .500 has a worse projected year-end record than NE). Got it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 (edited) ...However, I have a tough time thinking teams who can not stop the run will go far, and DEN has a downright awful run D. ... See Indy, 2006. I do agree though that you typically need at least an adequate run D to get anywhere. It's not far fetched for DEN to win the division and make it in as a 4 seed... beyond that, yeah, the bad run D doesn't help one bit. NFC South... There are too many variables right now in this division. Tampa is sitting pretty at the moment with a 2-1 record in the division but I just don't see it lasting. The offense is patchwork... moreso than usual. The D is scrappy but I don't think it's good enough to carry them. NO has played only one division game. They're 3-3 but two of those losses were on the road to, according to muck's projections, playoff teams. One is a projected division champ. If they can go 2-0 before the bye (very possible), their last half schedule is very friendly with only one or two clearly difficult matchups. 10-6 is not a stretch if they go 2-0 before the bye, split with ATL, and lose @ CHI in December. CAR is Jekyll and Hyde... they can either win or finish last in the division. ATL is a wild card. Probably not good enough to sniff a division win but certainly good enough to sneak in as a wild card. After the bye... they'll probably split their two road games, go 2-1 in their homestand, drop the next two, and then finish 2-1. That's 9-7 assuming they get only one more road win. The one road win being @OAK but could easily upset either NO or MIN. Although, of the current top 3 in the division, ATL is more likely to fall back and NO rise. Edited October 17, 2008 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinatown dragons Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Lord Opie has it right. My prediction is that of all teams above .500 currently (i.e., all teams that are 3-2, 4-1, 5-0, etc), which one has the biggest chance of being 8-8 or worse by the end of the season, NE has the biggest chance of being that team. Said another way, of all the teams that are 3-2, their projected record is closer to 8-8 than all other teams (iirc, I have projected their record at something like 8.6 wins and 7.4 losses ... rounds to 9-7 ... and no other team that is currently above .500 has a worse projected year-end record than NE). Got it? got it now......Just didn't 'read' it that way...i read it that which team has best chance of going .500 or worse this year, and then saw your prediction of a 'winning' 9 and 7 record for the Pats....somewhat confusing, but makes sense......i'd be shocked (and happy) if Pats finish above .500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.K.Trey Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Lord Opie has it right. My prediction is that of all teams above .500 currently (i.e., all teams that are 3-2, 4-1, 5-0, etc), which one has the biggest chance of being 8-8 or worse by the end of the season, NE has the biggest chance of being that team. Said another way, of all the teams that are 3-2, their projected record is closer to 8-8 than all other teams (iirc, I have projected their record at something like 8.6 wins and 7.4 losses ... rounds to 9-7 ... and no other team that is currently above .500 has a worse projected year-end record than NE). Got it? I understand now what you intended , but how it is written does not convey that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2008 Author Share Posted October 17, 2008 I understand now what you intended , but how it is written does not convey that. Sure it does. "Team Currently Above .500 Most Likely to Finish .500 or Worse:" 1) Make a list of the teams that are above .500 right now. Check. 2) Determine how those teams are set to finish the season, record wise. Check. 3) List the team (or teams) that are closest to (or below) .500. Check. No team with a winning record projects to be 8-8 or worse. NE is the closest at 9-7. I don't get how this could possibly be confusing to anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.K.Trey Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Anyway it is all semantics , as who is doing the projecting? you are, maybe if I do the projecting it comes out differently. Not here to argue , as it is your post. Just added my 2 cents as to the vagueness of the post , and while I am sure it makes perfect sense to you , since it came from your own head, I am sure others saw it the same way as I.Beside that I thought it was a very interesting post. I enjoy these type of prediction/projection posts .Have a great weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcmast Posted October 18, 2008 Share Posted October 18, 2008 Sure it does. "Team Currently Above .500 Most Likely to Finish .500 or Worse:" 1) Make a list of the teams that are above .500 right now. Check. 2) Determine how those teams are set to finish the season, record wise. Check. 3) List the team (or teams) that are closest to (or below) .500. Check. No team with a winning record projects to be 8-8 or worse. NE is the closest at 9-7. I don't get how this could possibly be confusing to anyone. Stop your fuzzy math. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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