Aaron Rodgers this week

[Flip_Side]

The huddle has Rodgers with 240 and a TD.

They also have Jennings with only 80 yards.

 

DMD says that the low numbers are due to.........

 

Rodgers faces a secondary that has been outstanding. Only use Jennings really? Great - the Colts are #1 at stopping wide receivers and only Andre Johnson has scored against the Colts defensive backs. Wrap your head around this - the Colts have allowed only one passing score this year. Only one.

 

This is very misleading considering that the Colts have only played Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Houston, and Baltimore.

 

The only team that actually has a decent passing game would have to be Houston and that was with Rosenfels of all people. They let Johnson go for 9 receptions 131 yards and a touch. Don't give me this stuff about Orton being a good passer either because I'm just not buying it at all....

 

I'll be willing to bet big that Rodgers has a nice game and so does Jennings.

Edited October 15, 2008 by Flip_Side

[Bronco Billy]

I understand why the prognostications are low - but they are low for the wrong reason. IND doesn't have a stellar pass D - they have a putrid run D. They are giving up 161 ypg, with only KC, STL, & DET being worse. Opposing teams have run the ball 174 times vs 138 passes this season and are gaining 4.6 ypc. IND is 28th in the league in opponents' rushing attempts per game. Teams don't pass against IND because they don't have to, not because they can't. If you look at IND's passing D ypa, they are not in the top 10 despite being in the top 5 in opponents' pass attempts (another clue that teams don't throw the ball against them), passing yds, ands passing TDs. They are also in the middle of the pack in INTs and in the bottom half of the league in sacks.

 

In short, teams don't need to pass the ball against IND, so they don't.

 

Given the opportunity to do both successfully, almost every NFL HC will choose to run over pass because it is less risky - and in the case of playing IND, it also keeps Manning off the field for longer periods.

 

Expect Grant to get a lot of work vs IND, and Rodgers to have his opportunties limited. The limited opportunities will lead to lower numbers, not IND's "stellar" pass D.

[detlef]

I understand why the prognostications are low - but they are low for the wrong reason. IND doesn't have a stellar pass D - they have a putrid run D. They are giving up 161 ypg, with only KC, STL, & DET being worse. Opposing teams have run the ball 174 times vs 138 passes this season and are gaining 4.6 ypc. IND is 28th in the league in opponents' rushing attempts per game. Teams don't pass against IND because they don't have to, not because they can't. If you look at IND's passing D ypa, they are not in the top 10 despite being in the top 5 in opponents' pass attempts (another clue that teams don't throw the ball against them), passing yds, ands passing TDs. They are also in the middle of the pack in INTs and in the bottom half of the league in sacks.

 

In short, teams don't need to pass the ball against IND, so they don't.

 

Given the opportunity to do both successfully, almost every NFL HC will choose to run over pass because it is less risky - and in the case of playing IND, it also keeps Manning off the field for longer periods.

 

Expect Grant to get a lot of work vs IND, and Rodgers to have his opportunties limited. The limited opportunities will lead to lower numbers, not IND's "stellar" pass D.

sage

[Randall]

I understand why the prognostications are low - but they are low for the wrong reason. IND doesn't have a stellar pass D - they have a putrid run D. They are giving up 161 ypg, with only KC, STL, & DET being worse. Opposing teams have run the ball 174 times vs 138 passes this season and are gaining 4.6 ypc. IND is 28th in the league in opponents' rushing attempts per game. Teams don't pass against IND because they don't have to, not because they can't. If you look at IND's passing D ypa, they are not in the top 10 despite being in the top 5 in opponents' pass attempts (another clue that teams don't throw the ball against them), passing yds, ands passing TDs. They are also in the middle of the pack in INTs and in the bottom half of the league in sacks.

 

In short, teams don't need to pass the ball against IND, so they don't.

 

Given the opportunity to do both successfully, almost every NFL HC will choose to run over pass because it is less risky - and in the case of playing IND, it also keeps Manning off the field for longer periods.

 

Expect Grant to get a lot of work vs IND, and Rodgers to have his opportunties limited. The limited opportunities will lead to lower numbers, not IND's "stellar" pass D.

 

 

That's right. I like Grant this week. Maybe the Packer line can actually open some holes this time.

 

I like Rodgers and Jennings too for a score or two. Expect a shootout.

[detlef]

That's right. I like Grant this week. Maybe the Packer line can actually open some holes this time.

 

I like Rodgers and Jennings too for a score or two. Expect a shootout.

That's what I'm hoping for. I have the good fortune of having Manning in one league, Wayne and Vinatieri in another, but more importantly, I'm not facing any Packers or Colts in either. I hope the score is 45-40

[Belushi]

You'd be crazy to sit Rodgers this week. This game has all the makings of a shoot-out with both defences banged up, particularly the secondaries. I'd start every Packer you can find this week. Heck, Jordy Nelson could be a good play if Jones is still out.

[Hat Trick]

I am starting Rodgers this week with confidence, granted my other options in that league are Palmer and D Anderson, but still.

[Menudo]

I understand why the prognostications are low - but they are low for the wrong reason. IND doesn't have a stellar pass D - they have a putrid run D. They are giving up 161 ypg, with only KC, STL, & DET being worse. Opposing teams have run the ball 174 times vs 138 passes this season and are gaining 4.6 ypc. IND is 28th in the league in opponents' rushing attempts per game. Teams don't pass against IND because they don't have to, not because they can't. If you look at IND's passing D ypa, they are not in the top 10 despite being in the top 5 in opponents' pass attempts (another clue that teams don't throw the ball against them), passing yds, ands passing TDs. They are also in the middle of the pack in INTs and in the bottom half of the league in sacks.

 

In short, teams don't need to pass the ball against IND, so they don't.

 

Given the opportunity to do both successfully, almost every NFL HC will choose to run over pass because it is less risky - and in the case of playing IND, it also keeps Manning off the field for longer periods.

 

Expect Grant to get a lot of work vs IND, and Rodgers to have his opportunties limited. The limited opportunities will lead to lower numbers, not IND's "stellar" pass D.

 

This man knows football. Well stated.

[euphy]

If you listen to anyone's predictions, you shouldn't be playing FF with the big boys. Most of those guys know sh*t!

[Flip_Side]

I understand why the prognostications are low - but they are low for the wrong reason. IND doesn't have a stellar pass D - they have a putrid run D. They are giving up 161 ypg, with only KC, STL, & DET being worse. Opposing teams have run the ball 174 times vs 138 passes this season and are gaining 4.6 ypc. IND is 28th in the league in opponents' rushing attempts per game. Teams don't pass against IND because they don't have to, not because they can't. If you look at IND's passing D ypa, they are not in the top 10 despite being in the top 5 in opponents' pass attempts (another clue that teams don't throw the ball against them), passing yds, ands passing TDs. They are also in the middle of the pack in INTs and in the bottom half of the league in sacks.

 

In short, teams don't need to pass the ball against IND, so they don't.

 

Given the opportunity to do both successfully, almost every NFL HC will choose to run over pass because it is less risky - and in the case of playing IND, it also keeps Manning off the field for longer periods.

 

Expect Grant to get a lot of work vs IND, and Rodgers to have his opportunties limited. The limited opportunities will lead to lower numbers, not IND's "stellar" pass D.

DMD also mentioned this. I was just pointing out that the STELLAR Pass D that he is talking about is only an illusion due to the teams they have faced.

[piratesownninjas]

That's right. I like Grant this week. Maybe the Packer line can actually open some holes this time.

Or maybe Grant can remember that in a ZBS he's going to have to use the cutback lanes. Grant is just as much of the problem as the line.

Edited October 15, 2008 by piratesownninjas

[Kansas State 2000]

I'm starting Rodgers also ahead of Delhomme and Warner.

[Balzac]

I agree that GB will try to use Grant as much as possible to exploit Indy's poor run D and to chew up clock, but we can't discount the fact that Indy is going to score - and score a lot. I doubt GB will be able to keep up with Indy if all it does is pound the ball on the ground - they'll eventually have to start chucking. Like a few others above, I expect a bit of a high scoring affair, as neither of these defenses should be able to stop the opposing team's O very easily.

 

GB's pass attack has shown that it can score on anyone and let's be serious - Indy's pass D is FAR from stellar. They simply haven't been facing combos like Rodgers/Jennings.

[Flip_Side]

I'm starting Rodgers also ahead of Delhomme and Warner.

Well I would hope so since Warner is on a bye.

[tazinib1]

Let us not forget that Bob Sanders is still out. This alone will ease the Packer offensive minds into letting Grant run early and often. Hopefully that will soften up that ferocious IND DL. Maybe Rodgers will remember they have a WR named Donald Driver and give him some love? Nah...probably not.

[WaterMan]

We all know Peyton Manning makes the Colts D unstoppable.

[DMD]

The huddle has Rodgers with 240 and a TD.

They also have Jennings with only 80 yards.

 

DMD says that the low numbers are due to.........

 

This is very misleading considering that the Colts have only played Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Houston, and Baltimore.

 

The only team that actually has a decent passing game would have to be Houston and that was with Rosenfels of all people. They let Johnson go for 9 receptions 131 yards and a touch. Don't give me this stuff about Orton being a good passer either because I'm just not buying it at all....

 

I'll be willing to bet big that Rodgers has a nice game and so does Jennings.

 

The very next line that you did not quote was :

 

 

Rodgers faces a secondary that has been outstanding. Only use Jennings really? Great - the Colts are #1 at stopping wide receivers and only Andre Johnson has scored against the Colts defensive backs. Wrap your head around this - the Colts have allowed only one passing score this year. Only one. Granted, a sad sack group of quarterbacks have faced them but none have been successful.

 

When the Colts defense has only allowed one passing score and never more than 246 passing yards, that is outstanding since no other NFL team has done that. Of course the rushing attempts are a factor and that is precisely one of the problems I have with this matchup. Ryan Grant is not running well at all. And he is never used as as receiver out of the backfield. So the #1 position that has been successful against the Colts is the point of greatest weakness on the GB offense. I also see the Colts as starting to turn the corner in the last couple of games.

 

Let's look into Aaron Rodgers

 

MIN 18-22-178, 1 - Not a great game (#13 Def vs QB)

@DET 24-38-328, 3 - Great game against visiting defense that ranks #32 vs QBs

DAL 22-39-290, - Yardage and no scores. Only team that failed to pass a score on DAL this year (#24 vs QB)

@TBB 14-27-165, 2 - Two scores and no yards, Jennings alone is 109 yards and both scores. (#19 vs QB)

ATL 25-37-313, 3 - Great game against visiting defense that ranks #21 vs QB. GB loses game too.

@SEA 21-30-208, 2 - Good game against defense ranked #29 vs QBs

 

Given that the Packers do not use RBs as receivers (average of 3 catches for about 18 yards per game) and that Rodgers has only averaged around 3 receptions for 30 yards with his TEs this year, the entirety of his success is related to just WRs. He only ges around 48 yards on average from all positions other than WRs. And that includes those games against the #29 and #32 defense.

 

lets break GB passing down this year

 

TEs - 22 catches, 192 yards, 1 TD (per game - 3.7 for 32)

RBs - 22 catches, 108 yards, 2 TD (per game - 3.7 for 18)

WRs - 82 catches, 1188 yards, 8 TDs (per game - 13.6 for 198)

 

Breaking down the WRs

 

Ruvell Martin (4-44) a nobody

James Jones (5-38, 1 TD) but 4-29 and the score was in DET

Jordy Nelson (14-158, 1 TD) Never more than 42 yards in any game, score was in DET. Averges 26 yards on 2 catches per week.

 

Donald Driver (25-295, 2 TD) Scored against DET and ATL. Against 2 best defenses (TB and MIN) only had 5-46 total. Best games ATL, DET and SEA

 

Greg Jennings - (34 - 653 yards, 4 TDs)

 

I have projected Jennings with "only" 80 yards and no TDs.

 

Let's break him down:

 

MIN 5-91

@DET 6-167

DAL 8-115

@TB 6-109, 2

ATL 4-87, 1

@SEA 5-84, 1

 

80 yards would place him with his worst game yet, but only slightly from what he has done in the last two weeks. Defenses are getting a better idea of what to expect from him with Rodgers as well. I do not see 80 as being "way low" when it is in line with the last couple of games and is against a secondary that has ranked #1 against the pass unlike the defenses that Jennings went against to get the above stats. 80 yards would make Jennings be the #2 most sucessful WR against the Colts this year.

 

I really do not see it as out of line all things considered. It is my contention that all a defense has to do is cover Jennings - no other GB player has remotely as much success. Someone above said they wanted to start all their Packers aginst the Colts and by all means, have at. But nothing in the past six weeks suggests that is a prudent move.

 

I project 240 yards and a score for Rodgers - that is better than what he did aainst MIN, TB or DAL - the only decent defenses that he has faced and not that great against the pass anyway. So my projection for Rodgers has him with one of his better games.

 

When I look at Rodgers, here is how I think of him

 

vs crrappy defenses

 

@DET 24-38-328, 3

ATL 25-37-313, 3

@SEA 21-30-208, 2

 

vs decent defenses

 

MIN 18-22-178, 1

DAL 22-39-290,

@TBB 14-27-165, 2

 

Spin it however you want, I would not put IND in the crappy category.

[Bronco Billy]

Nice piece of analysis, there, David.

 

 

(You know I'm going to ask for my money back if I start Favre over Rodgers this weekend and it goes sour, don't you? )

[DMD]

Nice piece of analysis, there, David.

 

 

(You know I'm going to ask for my money back if I start Favre over Rodgers this weekend and it goes sour, don't you? )

 

whenever you throw around stats, it always costs me about 30 minutes of my life to reply.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'm starting Rodgers also ahead of Delhomme and Warner.

 

 

Well I would hope so since Warner is on a bye.

 

 

I do see Rodgers having a big week, if only because the GB defense has been struggling, and the IND offense appears to be picking up steam. I can very easily see a scenario of the Packers initially wanting to run the ball, but falling behind, and turning to the pass out of necessity.

 

My line on Rodgers: 280, 2 TDs

[Belushi]

Your analysis doesn't take into account the offences that Rodgers faced. In 2 out of his 3 games against "Decent defences", he faced Minny and Tampa's average offences. In the one shoot-out game he had against Dallas, he put up 290 yards. I think that's a more realistic projection for this week in what should be a shoot-out vs. Indy, and if he's throwing for that many yards I like his chances to throw a TD or two.

[MikesVikes]

There's a difference between a defence and a defense. Fans in stadiums don't have to spell it with a De followed by a white picket fence sign but us Huddlers don't have those white picket fences.

 

Thanks and I better not spell anything wrong for the next few days.

[Bronco Billy]

Well, the O/U is 47 (2nd highest O/U on the board this week), with Vegas seeing the game ending 24-23 Colts. That would be 2 TDs by GB.

 

I still see GB running the ball relentlessly until either IND stops it or IND gets up by double digits. I don't see IND up by double digits - GB's D isn't very good right now, but they are better vs the pass than they are vs the run, and IND isn't running the ball well at all this year. GB is also a better passing team than a running team, so what we really have is strength vs strength both ways & weakness vs weakness both ways.

 

That seems to spell a game where scoring isn't going to be at quite a premium as people think it will be.

 

Rodgers is around 240 yds & 2 TDs passing per game. I can see one of those passing TDs being transferred to the running game, so a 240/1 day seems entirely in line.

 

I think Grant is the wildcard here to completely change the face of this game. If Grant can get untracked early, GB can control the clock completely and we ought to see some long drives by GB that consume a lot of clock. That will also get Manning out of his rythym. If GB tries to get into a track meet with IND, it seems to me that's an almost surefire recipe for a loss by the Packers - and I think the coaches know that also. I expect GB to run Grant a ton early on.

Edited October 15, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[MikesVikes]

Btw, I was going to post regarding Adrian Peterson's projections in that it was missing a "2" in front of the 80. "only" 80 may be closer than 224 this time however.

[Big John]

There's a difference between a defence and a defense. Fans in stadiums don't have to spell it with a De followed by a white picket fence sign but us Huddlers don't have those white picket fences.

 

Thanks and I better not spell anything wrong for the next few days.

Spelled that way in Canada where he lives.