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2008 Week 9 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

21-8-2 so far, 2-0-2 last weekend for a solid bounce back. System is picking up steam and went 4-1-1 last week (80%) in its ATS plays, and is now 28-9-1 ATS (76%) since I ramped it up in Week 4.

 

I wanted to start this thread out by sharing the NFL record from a guy who still charges $119 for one week of plays, Brandon Lang:

 

NFL Record Thru Week 8 (10/27/08):

13-17-1 for all plays (43%)

“Top” (Largest Value) plays of the day: 8-11-1 (42%)

Record when tailing Steve Budin’s play: 4-1

2008 NFL “To Date”: - 94 Dimes

2008 NFL “To Date” excluding Lang tailing Budin: -142 Dimes

In October, excluding when he tailed Budin, Lang went:

1-6-1 (14%) on plays 15 Dimes or more

3-11-1 (21%) on all plays

For a net profit of: -140 Dimes

 

Including Budin's plays in October which went 3-1, Lang lost his clients -112 Dimes in October.

 

MONDAY 10/27/08

20 Dime Titans – W (tailed Steve Budin, Lang’s Boss)

 

SUNDAY 10/26/08 Week 8

20 Dime Chargers – L

20 Dime Patriots – Push

20 Dime 6 Pt Teaser Eagles/Redskins – W (tailed Steve Budin, Lang’s Boss)

10 Dime Buccaneers – L

5 Dime Bills - L

 

MONDAY 10/20/08

10 Dime Patriots – W (tailed Steve Budin, Lang’s Boss)

 

SUNDAY 10/19/08 Week 7

30 Dime Colts – L

5 Dime Dolphins – L

5 Dime Rams – W

 

MONDAY 10/13/08

20 Dimes Giants – L (tailed Steve Budin, Lang’s Boss)

 

SUNDAY 10/12/08 Week 6

15 Dime Texans - L

15 Dime Cowboys - L

15 Dime Rams - W

10 Dime Teaser - Raiders/Jets - L

5 Dime Eagles – W

 

MONDAY 10/6/08

15 Dime – Saints - L

 

SUNDAY 10/5/08 Week 5

20 Dime – Jaguars - L

5 Dime 6-point teaser - Eagles and Colts/Texans Over – L

 

MONDAY 9/29/08

15 Dime 6-point Teaser

Ravens and Under - L

(Let's take the Ravens up to +11 and take the total up to 40 and go under)

 

SUNDAY 9/28/08 Week 4

25 Dime Buccaneers - W

5 Dime Teaser- Jaguars /Titans (Take Jaguars from -7 to -1 and take Titans from -3 to +3) – W

 

MONDAY 9/22/08

10 Dime Jets – L

 

SUNDAY 9/21/08 Week 3

20 Dime Patriots - L

5 Dime Packers – L

 

MONDAY 9/15/08

20 Dime Eagles – W (tailed Steve Budin, Lang’s Boss)

 

SUNDAY 9/14/08 Week 2

20 Dime Jets - L

5 Dime Bills – W

 

MONDAY 9/8/08

15 Dime Packers – W

 

SUNDAY 9/7/08 Week 1

20 Dime Bills – W

5 Dime Panthers – W

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Bounced back last week at 2-0. Record for the season 18-7-1.

 

Eat that Brandon Lang.

 

Houston +4.5 - Well, the Texans finally have to hit the road. Off to Minnesota with a full head of steam. Playing a team with the same record. Both of these teams have been horrible against the spread. The Texans are 2-5 and the Vikings 1-5-1. The Texans covered the spread at Jacksonville but got blown out at Pittsburgh and Tennessee in the first two games of the season. The Vikings are not the Titans or the Steelers. The Vikings just got done getting racked up for 48 points against the Bears. And keep in mind they barely held off the Lions for a 2 point win in their last home game.

 

Schaub and Andre Johnson can't be stopped right now. The Vikings might find a way to pull off a victory here (though I doubt it) but at the very most I would give the Vikings a 3 point advantage and that is only because the game is at home. In my opinion the Texans are getting a point and a half that they don't deserve in this spot and that is the kind of edge that I look for.

 

There are a couple of games on this slate that look dangerous to me. Because they look so damn good. 3 point road favorites - Cardinals and Falcons. These two teams will likely get lots of play, and understandably so. The Cardinals seem to be right on the brink of a quality road win after giving the Panthers all they could handle last week. I'm not sure this would qualify as a quality road win, but it is certainly a game the Cardinals need to win if they are serious about winning the division. They should win. They should win handily. I know that. You know that. But it seems that I lose on these kind of plays more than any. Road favorites are one of the hardest bets in NFL football, and though logic tells us that the Cardinals are better than the Rams, and the Falcons are better than the Raiders, the home teams in these kinds of games always seem to find a way to ruin the public play.

 

That being said, there is no way in hell I am betting on the Raiders or Rams. But I would bet that at least one of those two covers the spread. Two great games to avoid in my opinion.

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Sure. He hasn't released anything larger than 50 Dimes this year. He had several 100 Dime plays last year. He had a teaser last weekend and a 25 dime play on MNF that won. Overall, still decent but nothing colossal. Also charges $69 per game!!

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Week 9 Plays:

 

Mia +3.5

Ten -4 (5 Dimes, CRIS or BetJM for -110)

Bal +1.5

 

Week 9 Comment:

 

My computer system has been doing quite well this season. Perhaps that is an understatement, but ATS it is hitting at 76% and went 4-1-1 ATS last weekend. All three plays from my Friday e-mail LAST Week were from my system and they went 2-0-1. This week, all three plays are also straight from my system.

 

I have a couple of additional plays on my radar and these will continue to be analyzed until Sunday morning. Good luck in your wagers this weekend!

 

Week 9 Writeups:

 

 

Mia+3.5

 

* Miami is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog when traveling to play vs. NFC or AFC West since 2002, though they did lose in Ari this season (but so did everyone this season, and Ari is 9-2 SU at home since 07)

* I have another trend that has had one losing season in the last 6 seasons, and is an underdog system in which the dogs have a propensity to win SU. It has gone 34-10-2 ATS since 2004 including 33-13 SU, and 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS since 2006, and 10-2 SU and ATS in 2007.

* Denver is 1-12 ATS as home favorites on Sundays the last 3 seasons, failing to cover an by an average of 4 points.

* Underdogs of 3 to 5 points who have a worse record than favorites but are 2+ games better ATS than the favorite are 9-2 ATS since 2000 and also are 7-4 SU. On average, they have covered a 4 point line by 10 additional points and won SU by 6 points.

* After facing the Bills and being made an underdog, Miami is 5-2 ATS since 2003 and 4-3 SU. Their only ATS losses were to the 4-1 Bucs in 2005 and last year when they were 0-9 and traveled to Philly, losing by 10 on a +9.5 line.

* After beating the Bills, the Dolphins are 4-0 SU since 2001 and 3-1 ATS, winning both road games SU as an underdog.

* I have a very strong trend which is 18-3-1 ATS since 1994 and is 9-1 SU and ATS as a dog or a pickem.

* This trend looks at teams who are within 1 game of .500 who have just played in 2 home games and head out for one road game and then are back home for two home games. After winning that last home game and then heading for that one road game in over 5 weeks, they are 12-3 ATS as underdogs of 3+ points, and in fact, they are 10-5 SU since 1990. Since 1999, they are 8-1 SU and ATS, covering an average 4 point line by 12 points and winning SU by 8 points.

 

I also want to dispel the myth that teams who took a beating the week before the bye come back w/ a vengeance the following game.

 

* Teams who lost by 17 or more prior to their bye and are favored the week after their bye are 8-21 ATS since 1990, including 1-2 ATS each of the last 2 seasons.

* Teams who lost on MNF by 7+ points and then had a bye were 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU as favorites the next week since 1998.

* Teams who lost on MNF by 14+ points and then had a bye were 0-3 SU and ATS in their next game since 1994, including 0-2 in 2007.

 

If there is one thing we can all agree on, it is that Denver of the past 3 seasons is not the Denver you knew from the 90s with Elway and Davis, or even the Denver from early 2000s w/ Plummer and Portis. In my research, the main stat that seems to support Denver is that Denver is 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 SU off their bye week under Shanahan. Definitely impressive, and something to be strongly considered AND further investigated. One thing you should know is regular Sunday afternoon games are bet much differently than MNF games, so first we need to eliminate the two MNF games (1 ATS W, 1 ATS L). Second, you should realize that divisional games are different from non-divisional games. Different feel, different energy when playing a twice-a-year rival vs. a team from across the country that you haven't played in 3 years.

 

So when you look at Sunday afternoon, non-divisional games after a bye, you will find that Denver has not been a home favorite since 1998. Personally, I look at every situation and analyze each one differently. Lines are set based on perception and being made a road favorite vs. a home favorite is, indeed, a vastly different situation. Denver being made a -3 fav in Miami would instantly make people think something about the game which is different from Denver being made a -3 fav IN DENVER. A lot more needs to be proven from Denver's side than simply Shanahan's record after a bye, as impressive as it may be, considering they have not been home favorites on a Sunday afternoon (like they are this Sunday) since 1998, and their team, their abilities and their capability of winning and covering spreads has changed dramatically since then.

 

Based on my system as well as my research, as well as the fact that the AFC West is a dreadful 5-14 SU and 6-13 ATS in non-division competition this season (by far the worst in the NFL this season) and are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 (again, by far the worst in the NFL). So I will take the points and hope for the best when Miami travels to Sunny Denver, Colorado where gametime temps are currently predicted to be 74 degrees at kick and 67 degrees after 3 hours of play.

 

Ten -4

 

First before trends, I want to get into a little lesson I will call: The "Myth of the Rested vs. Un-Rested team" a.k.a the "Myth of the Short Week vs. the Bye Week team". Some may even refer to it as a MNF hangover. But is it real?

 

We have one team who is off a MNF appearance and the other team was on a bye last week, resting and getting healthy. One team has 8 more days of rest, and if you consider that the players don't actually get home until Tuesday morning MNF games, you could argue 9 more days of rest and preparation. So how has it affected teams? Shouldn't the team w/ the rest and relaxation and preparation dominate?

 

* All teams in this situation, off MNF, whose opponent had a bye, are 16-6 SU and 15-6-1 ATS since 1990, including 7-0 ATS since 2003.

* In non-divisional match-ups, they are 10-3 SU and ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS since last season.

* If they play at home, they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, covering an average 5 point line by 7 points and winning SU by 12.

* If they are home favorites, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS covering an average 5.5 point line by 8 points.

 

So as you can see, anyone who wants to play Green Bay solely because they are rested off a bye and primed to upset a team on a short week, better consider other reasons why they think GB can win. On to the trends:

 

* Undefeated teams after week 6 who just played on MNF and covered in the win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 the following week since 1990. The only non-cover was the Colts by 14 over the Texans, when the spread was -17.

* Teams who won on MNF by 10+ points and are favored the next week by between 4 and 7 points are 9-3 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 6 points and winning SU by an average of 12 points since 2002.

* The Titans are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after facing the Colts. They only beat the Colts once, and were 1-0 ATS in their next game.

* If it is the first match-up w/ the Colts, the Titans come out even stronger the following week, going 3-0 ATS and SU, and covering the spread by an average of 18 points. However, all three games they were underdogs, something very important to consider.

* Teams who won in upset fashion as a home underdog prior to the bye and now are road underdogs after the bye are 0-6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS since 2003, losing SU by an average of 14 points.

* Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are facing a non-divisional opponent as a favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002

* Another trend I have favors Ten and is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS dating back to 1990 and is 5-0 since 2002, tallying up exactly 1 win per season with the exception of not applying for a game in 2004. While not blowouts, the teams did cover an average 4 point and won SU by an average of 9 points.

 

Tennessee has only played 1 game on a short week following MNF in the last 4 years, and they lost SU and ATS. But don't read into that. It was a game in Cincy last year, where Ten was without Albert Haynesworth for the third game in a row, they were a mere 5-5 SU and had lost their 2nd straight on Monday IN DENVER and then played IN CINCY on the short week, they only rushed the ball for A TOTAL OF 61 yards, Vince Young threw for 0 TDs and 1 Int, and Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson was what we remember them to be, w/ CJ catching 3 TDs and 100+ yds and Cincy even rushed for 148 yards! Nothing could be further removed from the 7-0 Titans this season and the situation they face this week: playing back to back home games (not road games).

 

The last three seasons, bye week teams have performed extraordinary across the board, covering in 62% of their games after a bye since 2005. However, road underdog bye week teams are not performing nearly as well, hitting only 46% since 2005, and are a poor 5-9 ATS since 2007 (including 2-3 ATS in 2008). If the road underdog off a bye has a line of more than +3 but not double digits, they are 2-7 ATS since 2007 and 1-8 SU, failing to cover an average +7 point line by 11 points and losing SU by 18.

 

This game is one that pits people fading the undefeated team off a short week (which, by the way, these undefeated teams off MNF are actually 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU as a favorite after week 6) and are riding with a team who defeated the same Colts by a larger margin the week before. I, however, will stack my chips with Ten and will pull for a 5 point win for the cover.

 

 

Bal+1.5

 

* Following a season in which they finished at or below .500, the Ravens are 9-1-2 ATS as a divisional underdog the following season since 1999, covering ATS by 7 points on average.

* Following a season in which they finished better than .500, the Browns are 1-6 ATS as a divisional favorite the following season since 1995.

* Divisional home favorites of a FG or less who had a winning record last season and won last week against a divisional foe with a losing record last season are 1-7-1 ATS and 2-7 SU since 1999.

* Cleveland is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2003 after playing 3 straight non-divisional opponents and then facing a divisional opponent in a sandwich game (non-divisional opponent up next).

* Under the same rules, Baltimore is 4-2 ATS.

 

 

This game will come down to turnover margin. So I'll do a quick turnover analysis:

 

In the Colts game, Flacco threw 3 Ints and Baltimore had 2 fumbles lost, and received zero turnovers from the Colts, for a -5 margin. Baltimore, as you know, lost badly. In the 6 games where Baltimore had 1 or 2 turnovers (they have always turned the ball over at least once), they are 4-2 SU. Ignoring the road game in Indy, in Baltimore's two other road games (@ Pit and @ Mia), Baltimore only committed 1 turnover in each game and went 2-0 ATS. Flacco has shown just enough for me to not be leery enough to shy away from this bet. He hasn't been spectacular, but he hasn't been a consistent turnover machine, either.

 

Cleveland also lost when turning the ball over 3+ times (in Bal earlier this year) but has not shown consistency when not turning the ball over. In their two games w/ 2 turnovers, they are 1-1 SU, and in their 4 games with zero turnovers they are 2-2 SU. So the good news is they have committed zero turnovers in 4 games, but the bad news: preventing turnovers does not seem to be enough to get Cleveland consistent wins. Looking even more into it, Cleveland is 1-2 SU at home, and their only win was when they received 3 turnovers anc committed zero. When they received one or zero turnovers, they lost both home games. Looking at turnover margin: On the season, they are 2-0 SU with a turnover margin of +3. But they are 1-4 SU when their turnover margin is +1 to -2.

 

In comparison, the Ravens are 0-1 with a turnover margin of -5. But they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when the turnover margin is zero or -1 (in their favor by 1). Based on the turnover analysis, as well as my system stats and trend analysis, it seems Baltimore may have enough to get the win SU so long as they do not lose the turnover battle. In their first meeting, in Baltimore, despite two Flacco Ints, Anderson threw 3 for Cleveland and Baltimore won with ease. If you think Baltimore can say even w/ Cleveland and not force Flacco to win the game w/ his arm (and thus reduce his likelihood of throwing Ints), Baltimore is a solid bet this weekend. The Browns are 3-5 SU and ATS since 2006 when the line is within a FG (+/-) if their opponent has a winning record. And how is this for a concluding trend:

 

Since 1995 (13.5 full seasons), the Browns have played 28 home games against divisional teams aside from the Bengals. They were home favorites in these games only 6 times! And their record as a divisional home favorite: 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS, losing SU on average by 11 points. And Cleveland has never been the home favorite in a divisional game (Cincy included) since 2004. In addition, Baltimore has been a divisional road underdog just once in a non-prime time game the last 3 years, and they won SU 31-7. I'm not about to tell you to load up on Baltimore, this is a game that will come down to turnovers and you never know exactly how the ball will bounce, but all things considered I do like Baltimore to cover the short line.

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I have been riding Tennessee like a rented mule, but I am laying off them this week. I do think they will go to 8-0, but I am a little concerned about the fact that they got the monkey off their back last week with the big win vs. Indy. I know Jeff Fisher's teams are among the best coached in the league, but it is just human nature to let your guard down a little once you get to the mountain top. Meanwhile the Packers come off two solid wins and look to be on track. I just smell trouble for this game as far as the Titans covering the spread. I would feel a lot safer with Ten -3 or less. Just a gut feeling. The Titans are in a great position right now, and the Packers not so much. This could be a very competitive game.

 

In addition to my previous play I am adding a ridiculous high chalk parlay and 10 pt teaser to my card with NYG, CHI, ARI. Thoughts here despite the heavy chalk - Dallas without Romo is hopeless vs the Giants. The Bears destroyed the Lions in Detroit this season already (though from a trend standpoint Chicago is one of the worst bets on the baord today, I am counting on the ineptitude of the Lions to get the cover anyway) and Arizona has won their last 3 in St. Louis, and this team is better than those teams were.

 

Good luck to all today.

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The last tout tally I saw had 34 on Cle and 6 on Bal. It's gotten even more lopsided. So everyone is throwing down today on Cle, plus Bal's secondary is hurting.

 

My other play, Ten, is also moving very low and 23 touts to GB v 8 touts to Ten. Another game I am going up against a tout majority.

 

So we'll see. You never like to see steam moving lines down, typically not a good sign.

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The last tout tally I saw had 34 on Cle and 6 on Bal. It's gotten even more lopsided. So everyone is throwing down today on Cle, plus Bal's secondary is hurting.

 

My other play, Ten, is also moving very low and 23 touts to GB v 8 touts to Ten. Another game I am going up against a tout majority.

 

So we'll see. You never like to see steam moving lines down, typically not a good sign.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head in your write up: people taking the rested team and fading the short week'd team.

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6 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 3 to 1

Bengals(Cincinnati) +13

Bills(Buffalo) +1

Texans(Houston) +12

HOU/MIN Over 40.5

 

6 Point Teaser (5 Teams)

Pays 4.5 to 1

Cowboys(Dallas) +14

DAL/NYG Over 35

Ravens(Baltimore) +7.5

Vikings(Minnesota) +1.5

HOU/MIN Over 39

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 7 to 5

Seahawks(Seattle) +14

Raiders(Oakland) +10 (-125)

Bengals(Cincinnati) +14.5

 

Also played all three of Dre's plays:

 

Dolphins(Miami) +3.5

 

Titans(Tennessee) -4.5

 

Ravens(Baltimore) +1.5

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A couple more for games not yet started:

 

6 pt teaser - pays 3 to 1

Giants (NewYork) -2.5

Dolphins (Miami) +10.5

Colts (Indianapolis) -0.5

Steelers (Pittsburgh +8

 

7 pt teaser - pays 7 to 5

Seahawks (Seattle) +14

Raiders (Oakland) +10

PIT/WAS Over 29.5

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maybe you should think twice before turning tout with your fabricated system record

 

 

OIA. Is being an asshole your sole purpose in this thread ?

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Whats your purpose?

 

 

Signed OIA!

 

 

:navinjohnson: I have a special purpose :navinjohnson:

 

Seriously the guy is 21-8 in free posted plays. How the hell can you argue with that ?

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Titans will lose today.

You come in here, make one wrong pick and then start ragging on a guy that puts a lot of time and energy in helping people.

 

:wacko:

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Bounced back last week at 2-0. Record for the season 18-7-1.

 

There are a couple of games on this slate that look dangerous to me. Because they look so damn good. 3 point road favorites - Cardinals and Falcons. These two teams will likely get lots of play, and understandably so. The Cardinals seem to be right on the brink of a quality road win after giving the Panthers all they could handle last week. I'm not sure this would qualify as a quality road win, but it is certainly a game the Cardinals need to win if they are serious about winning the division. They should win. They should win handily. I know that. You know that. But it seems that I lose on these kind of plays more than any. Road favorites are one of the hardest bets in NFL football, and though logic tells us that the Cardinals are better than the Rams, and the Falcons are better than the Raiders, the home teams in these kinds of games always seem to find a way to ruin the public play.

 

That being said, there is no way in hell I am betting on the Raiders or Rams. But I would bet that at least one of those two covers the spread. Two great games to avoid in my opinion.

 

rattsass, very niceeeeeee!

 

:wacko:

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